Largest Monthly Travel Increase Since January 2006

The chart above shows the percent change in U.S. traffic volume through July (from the same month in the previous year), in a report released yesterday by the Federal Highway Adminstration (data and report here). After falling for 17 consecutive months starting in November 2007, traffic volume has increased in three of the last four months. The 2.3% July increase was the largest monthly gain since January 2006, and matches the 2.3% increase in October 2006.

The chart below shows traffic volume as a moving 12-month total, with a similar pattern to the percentage monthly increase above. After falling for 16 straight months going back to December 2007, the moving 12-month total has now increased in 3 out of the last 4 months to the highest level since last year.

Another sign that the recession probably ended in June.

Comments

[BullnBear:]

I’m curious if with this data you have seen any study that would cross reference this against current inventory supplies in terms of when we may see a draw down from a statistical point, in other words where do traffic levels need to be to impact our current levels?

Sep 24 02:09 AM

[jeremiah74:]

i dont see any big deal with miles driven.. last year it was in a free fall because of the high price of fuel. with fuel prices a lot lower, the summer months show an increase. i dont think there is much to read into this..

Sep 24 04:30 AM

[Donald Ingram:]

Of course! Every one who bought a new vehicle through the 'cash for clunkers' program has to go out with their new vehicle and burn up at least a half dozen tanks of gas!

Sep 24 12:48 PM

[Gassy:]

Thanks Mark. This is a significant for the oil price. But total oil consumption that includes industrial/commercial, heating oil etc. is down 6.5%yoy.

Sep 24 01:30 PM