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Northern Tier Energy LP (NYSE:NTI)

Q2 2013 Earnings Call

August 13, 2013 11:00 am ET

Executives

Maria Testani

Henry M. Kuchta - Co-Founder of Northern Tier Energy GP LLC, Chief Executive Officer of Northern Tier Energy GP LLC, President of Northern Tier Energy GP LLC, Director of Northern Tier Energy GP LLC and Member of Executive Committee

Chester J. Kuchta - Chief Operating Officer of Northern Tier Energy GP LLC and Vice President of Northern Tier Energy GP LLC

David Bonczek - Chief Financial Officer of Northern Tier Energy GP LLC, Principal Accounting Officer of Northern Tier Energy GP LLC and Vice President of Northern Tier Energy GP LLC

Analysts

Arjun N. Murti - Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Research Division

Matthew Blair - Macquarie Research

Mohit Bhardwaj

Eric McCarthy

Operator

Good day, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to the Second Quarter 2013 Northern Tier Energy Earnings Conference Call. My name is Philip, and I'll be your operator for today. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded for replay purposes. I would now like to turn the conference over to your host for today, Ms. Maria Testani, Director of Planning and Strategy. Please proceed, ma'am.

Maria Testani

Thank you, Philip. Good morning, and welcome to Northern Tier Energy LP's 2013 Second Quarter Earnings Conference Call. The slides that supplement this call can be found on our website, www.ntenergy.com. On the call today is Hank Kuchta, our President and Chief Executive Officer; Chet Kuchta, our Chief Operating Officer; Dave Bonczek, our Chief Financial Officer; as well as other members of management.

Please read the Safe Harbor statement you will find on Slide 1. It is a reminder that we will be making forward-looking statements during the presentation and during the question-and-answer session. Actual results may differ materially from what we expect today, and factors that could cause actual results to differ are included here, as well as in our filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

As a reminder, this call is being recorded and can be replayed by going to the Investor Relations section of our website and clicking on the Calendar of Events or Presentations section -- subsection. I will now turn the call over to Hank for opening remarks.

Henry M. Kuchta

Thanks, Maria, and thank you all for joining us today. I will begin with some brief highlights for the quarter. Chet will then discuss operating performance and market conditions. Dave will follow with further details on our financial results for the quarter. Maria will provide you with some key metric guidance for the upcoming third quarter, and I will make some closing remarks, after which we will take your questions.

Yesterday, we reported our second quarter results and declared our quarterly distribution. Quarterly distribution of $0.68 per unit was driven by our reliable operations, both before and after completing our major planned turnaround and throughput expansion project. This was our fourth distribution since the completion of our IPO for a total of $4.66 per unit. This equates to return of capital of $429 million in the aggregate. Later in our prepared remarks, Dave will provide details on the calculation of available cash and the distribution for the second quarter.

Our second quarter 2013 operating income was $48 million compared to $225 million for the second quarter 2012. This decrease in operating income was primarily the result of a 32% decrease in throughput and refined product sales compared to the second quarter of 2012. Obviously, this was no surprise since the refinery was brought down for 1/3 of the quarter for the planned refinery turnaround. During the second quarter of 2013, total throughput averaged 55,000 barrels per day compared to 82,000 barrels per day for the second quarter of 2012.

Our April maintenance activities marked the first major plant-wide turnaround at the St. Paul Park refinery performed by Northern Tier Energy. We are proud to point out that we successfully completed the turnaround with 0 loss time injuries despite some very poor weather conditions, which did impact our worker productivity. As a reminder, this was a full plant turnaround in which we inspected every unit with the exception of the fluid catalytic cracker. This type of work is done once every 5 to 6 years. Therefore, we do not expect to have another major turnaround which will affect our throughput to this degree until 2018. As stated on previous calls, we will be performing a turnaround on our fluid catalytic cracking unit in October of this year. On our next earnings call, the impact of this turnaround will be included in our guidance of fourth quarter key metrics.

We also took advantage of our planned downtime to complete an expansion project on the #2 crude unit. As a result of this expansion, we have enhanced our capacity by 10% on additional 8000 barrels per day and increased our distillate yield by 2.5% or roughly 2,000 barrels per day. The distillate yield enhancement means we'll be producing more higher-value distillate products and at the same time, reducing our production of lower-valued asphalt.

The other strategic initiative I would like to highlight once again is the Northern Tier oil trucking business, which we started last year. The business continues to perform well and allows us to source Bakken crude directly at the source, saving us the margin that would have been collected by a third party for trucking and pipeline transportation services. As of July, we were transporting approximately 20,000 barrels per day of Bakken oil through this business.

In summary, our 2013 turnaround activity and strategic initiatives will allow us to continue to optimize our competitive strengths. These strengths are our reliable assets, our access to advantage crude and our competitive position in the products market. These strengths will continue to benefit our unitholders through our variable distribution structure.

I will now turn the call over to Chet who will further discuss our operating performance.

Chester J. Kuchta

Thank you, Hank. As you can see on Slide 3, our gross product margin per barrel of throughput averaged $23.92 in the second quarter of 2013 compared to $38.60 in the 2012 second quarter. This 38% decrease was driven primarily by tighter crude spreads but also by a slightly more modest market crack and less favorable asphalt pricing. The Group 3 3-2-1 crack spread averaged $25.95 per barrel in the second quarter of 2013 as compared to $28.22 per barrel in the 2012 quarter. On a 6-3-2-1 basis, the Group 3 market crack was $18.85 per barrel in the second quarter of '13 compared to $20.61 per barrel in the prior year's quarter.

Just to expand a bit on the tighter crude market in the second quarter, the tighter crude spreads were a result of the combination of several atypical events that we do not expect to repeat themselves, or at least not all at the same time. Specifically, severe flooding in Calgary and Saskatchewan resulted in major heavy crude production losses and decreased pipeline availability in May and June. Unplanned upgrader outages resulted in significant synthetic production losses in June. Severe weather in North Dakota reduced NDL production in June. And last, major maintenance in the Gulf of Mexico resulted in LLS shortages throughout the second quarter. Needless to say, we do not see this as a future norm. And indeed, third quarter differentials have begun to fall, i.e., lower prices to us as the production returns to normal.

Operating expenses per barrel of throughput, excluding turnaround expenses, were $6.79 in the 2013 quarter compared to $4.25 in the 3 months ended June 30, 2012. The increase in operating expenses per barrel of throughput is primarily due to lower throughput levels at the refinery.

Turning to our retail segment. We reported a very solid performance with operating income of $8 million in the second quarter of 2013 compared to operating income of $4.8 million in the second quarter of 2012. This improvement is primarily attributable to improved merchandise and fuel margins and lower direct operating expenses in the 2013 period. We continue to grow the retail segment through obtaining more franchisees or expanding our SuperAmerica company-operated stores. As stated in the past, we believe this strategy will allow the refining segment to realize more favorable gasoline pricing relative to the Group 3 benchmarks, especially in the shoulder months, and allow us to further increase our ethanol blending percentage further decreasing our exposure to RINs pricing.

On the topic of RINs or renewable identification numbers, this has been a big topic of conversation across our industry. So let me take a few minutes to update you on how they affect Northern Tier.

We currently generate enough RINs to cover approximately 75% of our 2013 obligation. During previous earnings calls, we estimated that we would need to purchase between $25 million and $35 million RINs on the open market to cover our remaining obligations. We currently believe we'll be at the lower end of that range, and our total RINs cost for the year will be approximately $20 million. We hope to further increase the percentage of blending that we do in 2014. We plan to accomplish this through various initiatives such as our retail expansion and increased sales of biodiesel. We were encouraged by the EPA's recent announcement and its softening stance regarding the 2014 blend wall issue and the possible decrease of the 2014 mandate.

With that, I'll turn it over to Dave Bonczek for further discussions of our quarterly financial results.

David Bonczek

Thanks, Chet. On a GAAP basis, we reported net income of $63.9 million for the second quarter of 2013 compared to net income of $245.6 million in the second quarter of 2012. On a non-GAAP basis, adjusted EBITDA for the quarter -- the second quarter of 2013 was approximately $86 million compared to second quarter 2012 adjusted EBITDA of approximately $246 million. As we previously noted, these decreases are primarily due to lower throughput rates caused by our April turnaround activity in addition to narrower crude spreads in the 2013 period for which Chet described the market drivers.

Throughput for the second quarter of 2013 was approximately 55,000 barrels per day compared to approximately 82,000 barrels per day for the second quarter of 2012. As we stated earlier, we did complete our turnaround and expansion project, and we are now operating at expanded rates. Our throughput for the month of July was approximately 92,000 barrels per day.

As you can see on Slide 2, we continue to maintain ample liquidity and minimum leverage in the company. We had approximately $99 million in cash on hand and total liquidity of $291 million as of June 30, 2013. Our leverage ratio, measured by total debt to last 12 months adjusted EBITDA, remains at 0.4x. Cash flow from operations was $82.6 million in the second quarter of 2013. Cash from operations was impacted by the lower throughput and higher turnaround spending.

Turning to Slide 4, which shows our available cash calculation. Adjusted EBITDA was reduced by certain cash items, including interest taxes, taxes and maintenance capital to arrive at total cash available for distribution of approximately $63 million or $0.68 per unit. No cash reserves related to turnaround or expansion capital funding were made for the second quarter. Maria will discuss the range of the anticipated cash reserves relating to turnaround and discretionary capital funding for Q3.

As Hank noted, this is our fourth distribution since becoming a publicly traded partnership at the end of July 2012, aggregating a return of $4.66 per unit. As we have said in the past, we are a variable-rate MLP, and quarterly distributions will vary as a direct result of variations in certain factors, including fluctuations in throughput, the prices of crude oil and other feedstocks, refined product prices, capital expenditures and other cash reserves deemed necessary and appropriate by the Board of Directors of our general partner. Unlike most publicly traded partnerships, we do not have a minimum quarterly distribution.

Regarding our derivative program, for the second quarter of 2010, we incurred realized losses from derivative activities of approximately $3 million on 504,000 barrels of gasoline production and 761,000 barrels of distillate production. Going forward, and as you can see on Slide 5, we have a remaining 1 million and 1.5 million barrels hedged of 2013 gasoline and distillate production, respectively, at a weighted average strike price of $19.28 per barrel. You will see more details in the footnote on Slide 5.

We currently don't have plans to enter into additional crack spread hedges. However, we may enter into hedge contracts when we determine that it makes economic sense. And now I'll turn the call over to Maria to provide you with Q3 2013 key metric guidance for modeling purposes.

Maria Testani

Thanks, Dave. You can find our updated key metric guidance for the third quarter of 2013 on Slide 6. I would like to highlight a few key metrics on that slide.

For the refining segment, we project throughput and sales at the St. Paul Park refinery of between 90,000 and 95,000 barrels per day. These estimates for refined products sold do not include blended barrels of ethanol and biodiesel. We project direct operating expenses per barrel of throughput, not including turnaround expenses, of between $4.50 and $4.75 and a cash reserve for turnaround funding of between $5 million and $10 million. Total company-wide capital expenditures are expected to be $20 million, of which $9 million is attributable to our wastewater treatment plant, and $3 million is attributable to discretionary capital. Actual discretionary capital during the quarter will not affect the distribution. However, we will begin to replenish some of the cash previously used to fund the refinery expansion. We expect this cash reserve to be between $5 million and $10 million. The actual cash reserves for turnaround and discretionary capital funding will depend on our overall liquidity levels in the respective quarter.

I will now turn the call back to Hank for closing remarks.

Henry M. Kuchta

Thanks, Maria. We were very satisfied with the execution of our investment activities during the second quarter and their significance in optimizing our strategic advantages. While these activities were the focus for part of the quarter, we were also happy with the reliable and expanded operating capacity of our assets as we look forward to the second half of 2013. We were able to maintain a healthy distribution despite the lower throughput and tighter crude spreads as compared to the prior year quarter. We remain focused on enhancing our crude sourcing advantage, protecting our competitive position on refined products and improving the efficiency with which we operate. We can only accomplish our goals if we continue to reinvest in our business to maintain our safe and reliable operations and provide a compelling value proposition to our loyal SuperAmerican and SuperMoms customers.

I'd like to thank our employees for their hard work, which has enabled us, not only to successfully complete our first major turnaround but also to expand the capacity of the refinery. This will translate into enhanced value for all unitholders.

This concludes our prepared remarks, and we're now ready to take your questions.

Question-and-Answer Session

Operator

[Operator Instructions] All right. Your first question comes from the line of Arjun Murti from Goldman Sachs.

Arjun N. Murti - Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Research Division

A few kind of unrelated, hopefully, quick questions. You had a nice throughput increase here on the capital project. How much more running room is there at the refinery to do these types of projects going forward?

Henry M. Kuchta

Well, I'd say there's not a whole lot more capability of expanding from here. However, the capability of the unit, the hydraulic capability is a little bit higher than what we captured so far, and so we will look at where the next bottlenecks are. We've run some tests on what we have to de-bottleneck, again, not too many expensive propositions in there. But we might be able to squeak a little bit more out over the next few quarters.

Arjun N. Murti - Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Research Division

From -- I mean, I guess, from a space and ability standpoint, could you do a major expansion, I'm not saying if you're going to do it, but if you desired or is it really from, all perspectives, you're kind of getting -- you're going to get your limits beyond some smaller de-bottleneckings that you're talking about?

Henry M. Kuchta

Yes, I think a major expansion for the refinery is not in our plans at all, but we still have some room to take advantage of some spare -- a little bit of spare capacity that's left on the cap plant and which is the most valuable unit at our refinery. So -- and like I said, we have a little bit of room on crude towers still, so we'll figure it. But it's not going to be major.

Arjun N. Murti - Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Research Division

On the trucking the 20,000 barrels a day, how much is that saving you on a per barrel or some other basis?

Chester J. Kuchta

In the second quarter, it was probably somewhat of a wash because the market was so tight, and rail was pulling so many barrels. But as we move into the third quarter, we're seeing substantial savings, and our historical shipping capacity is now approaching $40,000 barrels a day on the Enbridge pipeline. And just 6 months ago, our historical shipping capacity was nearly 0. So we've really achieved that goal, which ensures that we aren't hit with marketers' incremental tariffs on that pipeline as we move into the future. So right now we're -- we see roughly $0.80 to $1 benefit as we're sourcing crude -- as we're obtaining crude at the source and removing some of those middlemen.

Arjun N. Murti - Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Research Division

Yes. Got it. And then just a last one on the philosophy around the cash available for distribution, I think you didn't take the reserve for the turnaround and on the one hand, it's nice that distribution's a little bit higher. But you are a variable-distribution MLP, and refining margins are going to be very volatile. I don't know if you did that to try and smooth it a bit, but why complicate that calculation? Why not just let it be the straight-forward calculation that it's otherwise been since the IPO?

David Bonczek

Yes, Arjun, I can see it's getting back to that. There was a desire to, because of the lower throughput, to -- since we had sufficient liquidity on hand, to not necessarily cut the distribution too significantly to the detriment of the unitholders. So yes, we have sufficient liquidity, and we could afford to do that. Going forward, yes, given the volatility, we are going to reintroduce the cash reserve process, both for turnarounds as well as expansion capital. But there is always the view that we don't want to hoard excess cash. And if we do have sufficient liquidity available to us in the event of an unplanned downtime, we can limit those reserves. So I agree, we would like it to be as straightforward as possible. But at the same time, we will return to our unitholders to the extent we won't put the company in a detrimental position.

Arjun N. Murti - Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Research Division

Got it. Understood. I mean, it's been nice that it's been such a straightforward calculation. It's not especially material in my personnel view, so I don't see why you'd want to mess with it. But I appreciate your perspectives.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] And your next question comes from the line of Matthew Blair from Macquarie.

Matthew Blair - Macquarie Research

Regarding the turnaround planned for October, it sounds like you'll be providing specific guidance at the next call. But just in terms of a general impact, is it fair to assume that this FCC turnaround is going to have a material impact on your crude throughputs, as well as your margin capture?

Chester J. Kuchta

No, I wouldn't say necessarily material. We will -- there'll be a drop in our crude rate, I'll say, slightly. We haven't finalized what that will be. And we will make less gasoline in that month, but we will also blend the other components that we do produce, and we will be selling a significant amount of gasoline and the total slate of our distillate products. So material, it is -- it's a material turnaround, but I don't think it will -- material is a bit of a strong word to use for the quarter, and it's only for the month of October. We will build up some of the vacuum gas oil, and rerun it in November. So hopefully, that answers your question.

Matthew Blair - Macquarie Research

And then on the RINs, there's been a lot of focus on ethanol RINs, but I was intrigued by your comments here, looking to increase sales of biodiesel and thus, I guess, improve your biodiesel RIN situation. Could you provide more details on your biodiesel, I guess, status here? Are you looking to get into the actual production of biodiesel? Or is this simply more blending on your end?

Chester J. Kuchta

Yes, no. It -- We're not going to get into the production of it. It's simply more of the blending, so our marketing staff has been pretty diligent in trying to find some are outlets. It isn't a big market, but it is growing. We're also examining other avenues that we kind of see as confidential at the time, so -- but we do have a few other initiatives we're working on. We've done a good job to date. I think we originally had a goal that we mentioned in the last call of getting to 75%. And so we're already there, and we're looking to go above that 75% number of self-generated RINs if you will. So we see this as a -- as somewhat of a minimal impact to us going forward. We certainly would like to have the $20 million back, but we think we've done better than most.

Matthew Blair - Macquarie Research

Great. Great. And then one last question, there's been some recent reports about pipeline shutdown -- a crude pipeline shutdown in Minnesota. Just wondering if this is affecting your operations. Is your Minnesota pipeline currently running? Just curious if there's any impact to the St. Paul Park refinery.

Chester J. Kuchta

Yes, it is running. The Minnesota pipeline is more than one pipeline. It's actually 4 pipelines. So when there are issues with one of the lines, the operator of the pipeline makes adjustments to the other line. And there is no impact to us, very minimal. It's back at full rates.

Operator

And your next question comes from the line of Faisel Khan from Citigroup.

Mohit Bhardwaj

This is actually for Mohit Bhardwaj for Faisel Khan. Most of my questions have been answered, and I was wondering if you guys could just follow up on the oil trucking business. What's the plan for an increase from the current 20,000 barrels per day?

David Bonczek

Right now we're not planning to increase our fleet much beyond where it is today. We think through efficiencies and some better management of the routes that we can get closer to 25,000 barrels a day. We're actually moving north of 30,000 barrels a day via third-party truckers. And our business has really enabled us to get some contracts with other haulers at far, far better rates. So we really accomplished a big goal of ours, which was to get the rates that we're paying other people, which were exorbitant, are now close to the number that we're doing it ourselves. So right now we're in a pretty good spot. We'll take it as it comes and increase in the size of that fleet further.

Mohit Bhardwaj

And one final one for me, if you could just comment the Bakken differentials on your view from hereon?

David Bonczek

Sure. The Bakken differentials in the second quarter, as I mentioned in our prepared remarks, were affected by a lot of events. And the flooding in Canada was substantial. It affected oil grades. It affected the heavies and the synthetics, which ultimately impacted North Dakota differentials. And on top of that, the weather in North Dakota in May greatly impacted the new wells that were scheduled to come out in June, so the producers that sold those barrels had to go out and buy them in the market, which, obviously, increased prices. As we look forward, we expect things to return to normal. I mean, right now we really -- I don't see it being economic for people to rail crude to the East Coast. So that oil is going to move to the East Coast and Gulf coast, and so differentials should indeed come down. And in the third quarter, they have dropped. But we -- I would expect that they need to drop further. But people's economics aren't always clear. Sometimes they have some costs and whatnot that they'll possibly do uneconomic things for several months. But longer term, they're not going to continue to buy crude that's losing their money versus other alternatives, so hopefully, that answers your question.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] And your next question comes from the line of Eric McCarthy from Balyasny Asset Management.

Eric McCarthy

It's Eric from Balyasny. I'm looking back at the guidance that you gave last quarter on what was -- what we're going to spend on the turnaround, as well as what maintenance CapEx is going to be on the quarter, and can you tell me where in the DCF reconciliation the extra expansion capital is embedded? Because it looks like the turnaround expenses went from about $20 million to $27 million, and maintenance CapEx was supposed to be about $20 million, and that ended up coming in at $13 million.

David Bonczek

Yes. So the only item there that impacted the quarterly -- I'll get to the DCF in a moment. But the quarterly cash available for distribution was the maintenance capital. It was a bit lower than what we had guided. And the reason for that is we discussed the productivity, some of the loss of productivity during the turnaround, as well as the expansion project that's probably an extra week or so on the turnaround and a week or so on the expansion project. And that was at the stake or that's the routine maintenance capital projects, therefore, did not necessarily get completed and were pushed out. So that was the main reason for the lower spend there. Yes, it did cost us more on the actual turnaround itself, as well as on the discretionary capital relating to the crude expansion. And as we described, those do not directly impact the distribution in a given quarter, but it impacts how we reserve over time for those overall turnaround plans and expansion plans or discretionary capital plans. And as Maria stated, while we suspended that distribution, we will reintroduce it in the $5 million to $10 million range, both for turnaround and expansion capital. But as we also said, we will always be looking at our overall liquidity levels. And if we can do better on working capital management or in other areas, we may go to the lower end of those reserves.

Eric McCarthy

Okay. How did the total of $27 million of expansion capital or the turnaround capital, how does that compare to what it had been reserved for?

David Bonczek

Yes, that wasn't capital per se. That was -- we expensed all of our turnaround activities. Actually, it's the same number. We had $27 million of turnaround expense in the quarter. We also had $27 million of capital project spend, kind of a coincidence there. On the turnaround side, we are -- we have not reserved since our inception the total level of our spend thus far. So we have made an investment there, and we will likely, as we said, through the reserve process, try to build that back up. And on the discretionary capital side, we have not made any reserve yet of cash relating to those projects. What we have said is those projects will pay off or will provide roughly another $36 million of EBITDA on an annual basis. And so we expect that, that will take us probably through the end of Q1 to cover the spending that we've had so far.

Maria Testani

Thus far, we've reserved $30 million of turnaround reserve.

David Bonczek

Right, which is below what we have spent though since inception.

Eric McCarthy

Okay. I guess, so that's just outside funding then. That's adding to the revolver balance or what not.

David Bonczek

Yes, well, we didn't need to dip into the revolver. We did have sufficient liquidity. But yes, it came from the cash on the balance sheet. [indiscernible]

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, this will conclude the question-and-answer portion of today's conference. I would now like to turn the call back over to Maria Testani.

Maria Testani

So that concludes our call today. Thank you, everyone, for joining us, and please feel free to give me a call in the office if you have any additional questions. Thank you.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes today's conference. Thank you for your participation, and you may now disconnect. Have a wonderful day.

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