Jeff Rubin: Expect Oil Prices to Rise Dramatically and Globalization to End 21 comments
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Jeff Rubin was on CNBC today talking the end of globalization. Jeff and I had a run-in a few years ago which I will turn into a post here sometime. Anyway, Jeff is a smart and interesting energy economist, so anything he says on oil is worth paying attention to.
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look at brigham ex, [bexp],and other drillers in montana.
6 to 7 million $ to drill a good well unlike our clinton wells here in ohio that cost around $350,000 and make 5 to 10 bpd.
someone will pay for this as the easy oil is just about gone.
Now another number. Yesterday, yes, yesterday on September 24 I saw a commercial talking about how much gasoline the GREEN prius has saved. Believe, I love the marketing strategy. After all there are gullible morons like you who love that word who have enough money as a market demographic to cater to. Make no mistake, though, it's these same gullible morons that cry on the news about how their refinanced homes are too expensive now...because they never understood the underlying facts and principles behind the economy- look in the mirror and you'll know who I'm talking about. Now, back to the prius commercial, and the wonderful toyota marketers...the commercial said that the prius- worldwide mind you- had saved a whopping BILLION gallons of gas. Wow, A billion gallons of gas...wow...
Again, run the numbers...Since it's inception in 1999, the prius has saved about 15 hours worth of global consumption of oil! That's 10 years of prius to save 15 hours worth of oil consumption...WOW... Each oil barrel is 42 gallons, and roughly depending on demand 20 gallons of that goes to gasoline. So, 1 billion divided by 20 gives us the remarkable number of 50 Million barrels, which as i have said a couple of lines of text back, barely qualifies as a drop in the bucket- or 2 1/2 days of US oil consumption... THERE IS NO CHEAPER ALTERNATIVE THAN OIL. In fact, the most expensive barrel of oil will be the cost of the cheapest VIABLE YES VIABLE alternative energy. and that my dear, is where we see that oil in fact will never run out, but rather just get really expensive. It's the end of suburbia as we know it, and it's the rebirth of the bustling city center.
I agree with much of Rubin's thesis and think that there's probably some good news for Mexico in there.
On Sep 25 04:59 AM bluesky123 wrote:
> The "peak oil" theory is being assailed. In the last 1 month there
> were announcements of huge oil finds by BP, Petrobras and Tullow
> Oil. Chevron's giant nat gas venture in Australia has signed 20 year
> supply deals with China and India. Repsol just announced a nat gas
> find that might be the largest in the world. We're finding energy
> faster than ever and we'll soon be driving electric cars that we
> recharge from a solar panel on the roof of the garage. China hired
> First Solar to build a solar field the size of Manhattan. Wind energy
> projects are soaring around the world. Looks to me like the energy
> options are better than ever and oil consumption is going down, not
> up (as indicated by the latest China oil consumption figures). More
> energy options amount to a tax cut for the US consumer, money the
> consumer can spend elsewhere. Oil is going down. Not up.
1. The discovery is 7 MILES under the ocean (greater than the height of Mount Everest).
2. 3 billion barrels is consumed by the world in about 35-40 DAYS.
3. It will take BP and Petrobras about 5-10 years to extract the first drop.
So let's keep these recent discoveries in context.
www.planbeconomics.com.../
www.financialsense.com...
On Sep 25 06:26 AM chich wrote:
> Wow bluesky, i think you're one of those people that loves the BP
> commercials talking about green and such, what an idiot. BP doesn't
> stand for beyond petroleum it stands for British petroleum just so
> you know....now, about the theory, it makes perfect sense. Oil is
> running out. It will NEVER run out, but it's supply will go down
> so much, and the easily accessible oil will be gone so soon that
> oil prices will go up. There is no cheap alternative. I repeat THERE
> IS NO CHEAP ALTERNATIVE. You have to understand the numbers and what
> they imply...You've seen in this very video that this year is having
> "unusually brisk" oil finds. Do you know how much 10 billion barrels
> of oil is? It's 4 months supply. That's right 4 months supply. And
> the stuff they're finding now is the stuff that's hard to get to.
> Not impossible, just hard to get to. This means higher price and
> this will change the way we live. No doubt about it.
> Now another number. Yesterday, yes, yesterday on September 24 I saw
> a commercial talking about how much gasoline the GREEN prius has
> saved. Believe, I love the marketing strategy. After all there are
> gullible morons like you who love that word who have enough money
> as a market demographic to cater to. Make no mistake, though, it's
> these same gullible morons that cry on the news about how their refinanced
> homes are too expensive now...because they never understood the underlying
> facts and principles behind the economy- look in the mirror and you'll
> know who I'm talking about. Now, back to the prius commercial, and
> the wonderful toyota marketers...the commercial said that the prius-
> worldwide mind you- had saved a whopping BILLION gallons of gas.
> Wow, A billion gallons of gas...wow...
> Again, run the numbers...Since it's inception in 1999, the prius
> has saved about 15 hours worth of global consumption of oil! That's
> 10 years of prius to save 15 hours worth of oil consumption...WOW...
> Each oil barrel is 42 gallons, and roughly depending on demand 20
> gallons of that goes to gasoline. So, 1 billion divided by 20 gives
> us the remarkable number of 50 Million barrels, which as i have said
> a couple of lines of text back, barely qualifies as a drop in the
> bucket- or 2 1/2 days of US oil consumption... THERE IS NO CHEAPER
> ALTERNATIVE THAN OIL. In fact, the most expensive barrel of oil will
> be the cost of the cheapest VIABLE YES VIABLE alternative energy.
> and that my dear, is where we see that oil in fact will never run
> out, but rather just get really expensive. It's the end of suburbia
> as we know it, and it's the rebirth of the bustling city center.
> I will be releasing a report soon, that buffoons such as yourself
> will be able to buy, so if you reread this, don't be too alarmed.
I guess my EV doesn't save money at electricity costs of $.01/mile!! Sadly I had to build my own.
There are plenty of alt to oil. We use NG to make diesel, Oil sands are another. You can by a wind generator now for $1k/kw, 1/4 of a coal plants cost and doesn't need fuel. Google Magnets4less or Axial flux wind generator. They last 50 yrs.
PV is now under $1/wt for solar farms and only a matter of time before homeowners get it at that price.
GTL from biomass to syn fuels is only $30/bbl by the same process as NG to liquids are done.
A solar CSP unit, 5hp steam/Rankine engine making 3kw once in mass production would cost less than $8k and supply all the electric, heat for an Eff home and EV for 50 yrs.
There is no shortage of energy, just a shortage of the equipment to catch, make it.
"10-20 months" to triple digit prices is plausible, if we are going to have a global economic recovery of any sort. Of course, the dollar isn't getting any stronger, either.
The bigger question is about the "end of globalization." That's more extrapolation than I would depend on. Even with expensive fuel, we can trade with... hmm, wind-powered clipper ships? Or, transporter beams?
Or have you always gotten every issue correct right out of the box, the first time you read about it?
We may not all agree on issues but that would not be the reason to abuse. We should state our various theses and let time prove (or disprove) them.
Site administrators should please check this.
Horizontal drilling for natural gas will yield more natural gas than we can burn and puts Peak Oil in the dustbin with communism. Autos run fine on natural gas.
The price of oil can only go so high and then every well that produces a barrel a day comes back into service, driving the price back down.
At a certain price (not much over $100 a barrel) it becomes profitable to extract oil from shale, oil sands, or from coal. Time will improve the efficiency of these techniques. We have centuries of oil in shale, oil sands and coal.
Deposits like the Bakken move from unrecoverable to recoverable.
Efficiency continues to improve in everything that uses energy. 50 percent of all cars built in Europe run on diesel with very high MPG rates; but due to CA environmental laws, Euro car makers are reluctant to sell them in the US (and they meet CA environmental standards). We are our own worst energy enemy.
We continue to discover new fields. Not all of the Middle East has been surveyed. There have been no surveys in Iraq since the 1980s. No one knows how much oil is in Khazakstan, or in the Gulf of Mexico for that.
Geothermal heat pumps are extremely efficient and will be common place in a few years.
The Russian theory of abiotic oil, if correct ends the debate.
If “green” energy was price competitive, everyone would be buying solar panels and putting up windmills. Green energy and peak oil are politically driven and have nothing to do with science or economics. Again, we are our own worst energy enemies.
We have been globalizing since the dawn of man. There is no end in sight of globalization short of a full scale world war where it is every country for itself; unless of course, the greenies have their way.
On Sep 25 04:59 AM bluesky123 wrote:
> The "peak oil" theory is being assailed. In the last 1 month there
> were announcements of huge oil finds by BP, Petrobras and Tullow
> Oil. Chevron's giant nat gas venture in Australia has signed 20 year
> supply deals with China and India. Repsol just announced a nat gas
> find that might be the largest in the world. We're finding energy
> faster than ever and we'll soon be driving electric cars that we
> recharge from a solar panel on the roof of the garage. China hired
> First Solar to build a solar field the size of Manhattan. Wind energy
> projects are soaring around the world. Looks to me like the energy
> options are better than ever and oil consumption is going down, not
> up (as indicated by the latest China oil consumption figures). More
> energy options amount to a tax cut for the US consumer, money the
> consumer can spend elsewhere. Oil is going down. Not up.
everyone doesn't work for a toy or a car company who needs to ship things.
Your one dimension response to Bluesky's response to Jeff's article pointing to one of CNBC's appropriately timed and scheduled talking heads is funny ay best.
I add a link which adds another dimension to your Prius silliness.
www.builditsolar.com/R...
Have a peak, and there are other ways to make costs comparisons of BTU generation and usage.
Healthy Trading!
On Sep 25 06:26 AM chich wrote:
> Wow bluesky, i think you're one of those people that loves the BP
> commercials talking about green and such, what an idiot. BP doesn't
> stand for beyond petroleum it stands for British petroleum just so
> you know....now, about the theory, it makes perfect sense. Oil is
> running out. It will NEVER run out, but it's supply will go down
> so much, and the easily accessible oil will be gone so soon that
> oil prices will go up. There is no cheap alternative. I repeat THERE
> IS NO CHEAP ALTERNATIVE. You have to understand the numbers and
> what they imply...You've seen in this very video that this year is
> having "unusually brisk" oil finds. Do you know how much 10 billion
> barrels of oil is? It's 4 months supply. That's right 4 months supply.
> And the stuff they're finding now is the stuff that's hard to get
> to. Not impossible, just hard to get to. This means higher price
> and this will change the way we live. No doubt about it.
> Now another number. Yesterday, yes, yesterday on September 24 I saw
> a commercial talking about how much gasoline the GREEN prius has
> saved. Believe, I love the marketing strategy. After all there are
> gullible morons like you who love that word who have enough money
> as a market demographic to cater to. Make no mistake, though, it's
> these same gullible morons that cry on the news about how their refinanced
> homes are too expensive now...because they never understood the underlying
> facts and principles behind the economy- look in the mirror and you'll
> know who I'm talking about. Now, back to the prius commercial,
> and the wonderful toyota marketers...the commercial said that the
> prius- worldwide mind you- had saved a whopping BILLION gallons of
> gas. Wow, A billion gallons of gas...wow...
> Again, run the numbers...Since it's inception in 1999, the prius
> has saved about 15 hours worth of global consumption of oil! That's
> 10 years of prius to save 15 hours worth of oil consumption...WOW...
> Each oil barrel is 42 gallons, and roughly depending on demand 20
> gallons of that goes to gasoline. So, 1 billion divided by 20 gives
> us the remarkable number of 50 Million barrels, which as i have said
> a couple of lines of text back, barely qualifies as a drop in the
> bucket- or 2 1/2 days of US oil consumption... THERE IS NO CHEAPER
> ALTERNATIVE THAN OIL. In fact, the most expensive barrel of oil will
> be the cost of the cheapest VIABLE YES VIABLE alternative energy.
> and that my dear, is where we see that oil in fact will never run
> out, but rather just get really expensive. It's the end of suburbia
> as we know it, and it's the rebirth of the bustling city center.