Friday Roundup: Commodities, Emerging Markets

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ETF Digest Sacred Cow VIII advises: “At any given time, the market can make anyone look like an idiot—always.” Last week we felt idiotic as we had sold many positions into the rally and, well, for a time anyway, looked stupid. Next week we’ll have another go at it most likely from the sidelines for the most part.

We have a rare special promotional announcement. For the most aggressive and risk tolerant investors we rollout changes to our fourth portfolio, Dave’s Special Portfolio (DSP). It will feature active short-term trading in leveraged ETFs exclusively. How’s that for putting the hammer on Sacred Cow VIII! Despite all the controversy surrounding these issues we believe they’re effective as we’ll use them. So, check it out if you wish next week beginning Monday.

What positions we do maintain are mostly in one portfolio for longer-term investors.

Have a great weekend and until Monday you can follow us on twitter.

Disclaimer: Among other issues the ETF Digest maintains positions in: VTI, IYR, XLB, XLF, IEF, TLT, DBC, UDN, GLD, EFA, EEM, EWC, EWZ and RSX.

The charts and comments are only the author’s view of market activity and aren’t recommendations to buy or sell any security. Market sectors and related ETFs are selected based on his opinion as to their importance in providing the viewer a comprehensive summary of market conditions for the featured period. Chart annotations aren’t predictive of any future market action rather they only demonstrate the author’s opinion as to a range of possibilities going forward. More detailed information, including actionable alerts, are available to subscribers at www.etfdigest.com.

Comments

[cma:]

Fry's GS bashing is getting old, especially considering that GS has paid back the US everything that GS owed, while GM has "borrowed" mega billions which the taxpayer will never see back. And not just GM, but Citibank and many other financial institutions with US preferred stock investments which are not being marked to market.
How come we never here about these "loans" that have defrauded the US taxpayer but only hear about GS?

Sep 26 01:20 PM

[TK5656:]

hey CMA: did GS pay back the benefit of the government making them whole on the AIG countertrades?

Sep 26 04:46 PM

[TK5656:]

Hey CMA: I don't think GS made government has been made whole for covering their countertrades in CDOs with AIG.

Sep 26 04:49 PM

[tunaman4u2:]

The greatest hidden truth TK,
Bank stocks rose MIGHTY quickly once the government used AIG to pay them off... but alas we have NO facts about how much money is going to which parties


On Sep 26 04:49 PM TK5656 wrote:

> Hey CMA: I don't think GS made government has been made whole for
> covering their countertrades in CDOs with AIG.

Sep 26 05:20 PM

[Mad Hedge F...:]

ygb Wow! Risk reversals can be such a bitch! It was like someone flipped a switch at precisely 3:30 p.m. in New York, and suddenly the rally was over. The sell recommendations from market timers poured out like confetti at a New York ticker tape parade. The pundits, talking heads, and faux financial reporters offered many possible explanations. Was it the disappointing housing data, a waffling Fed statement, end Q3 profit taking, or the autumnal equinox? Perhaps it was the Business Week cover the saying the market would continue going up. The harsh reality is that the market fell simply because of its own sheer weight. PE multiples of 20 in the face of flat revenue growth, tightfisted banks, a catatonic consumer, imploding commercial real estate market, an approaching tsunami of new home foreclosures, and a whole raft of government stimulus programs about to expire, is not exactly a springboard for even high prices. What is fascinating is how all global risk assets fell in unison, from gold, to stocks, to private debt, to currencies, as I have long predicted. The only place to hide is cash. The market may take another run at the highs before year end. But the burden of proof has shifted from the bears to the bulls.

Sep 26 10:52 PM

[SageNot:]

Exactly, GS is another pair of words for "Get Shorty,"
freakin' crooks, & I can't wait until ex-Treasury Secretary Paulson swings for his part in that GS/AIG fraud. Even now, GS's CEO is talking out of both sides of his lying mouth, WAKE UP!!!


On Sep 26 04:46 PM TK5656 wrote:

> hey CMA: did GS pay back the benefit of the government making them
> whole on the AIG countertrades?

Sep 27 08:50 AM

[Pauly B:]

Agree Mad Hedge Fund, the PE's are insane.

Another interesting thing I saw interday on Friday was the dollar was going down as the market was going down. Ummmm thats a little bit of a shift. Maybe its nothing but this is something to be watching over the next few weeks.

Sep 27 08:52 AM

[ecoco:]

Present valuation has overtaken high end expectations, to keep things boyant at these levels we need top notch data, otherwise good news is not good enough, bad news is catastrofic.

Remember few weeks ago when markets sheered bad news as not as bad as expected, now expect the oposite.

Sep 27 09:40 AM

[banco:]

GS does it stands for Government Sachs???
They made 1 million $ a day on the stock market by driving up with the billions received from the Fed. That winnings come from the public`s money. They got sucked in the rally just to loose it in favour of Goldman Sachs.

Thought the court order the Fed to make public how much money was handed out to whoever. Does any one knows if the list exists??

Sep 27 06:47 PM

[rennert:]

The dollar is going to do fine. Do not let those gold buyers disturb you. As soon as grandma and her friends get a decent return on their CD's the economy will take of. If that does not happen grandma and her friends will continue buying nothing but toilette paper and a few nibbles and the economy will be in the tank even further down the slippery slope that is now, already as it is decorated with high food inflation and doc and vet bills.

Sep 27 09:06 PM

[Steve Soden:]

It's all about confidence.
Since we don't know what our money is worth.
We don't know what anything is worth.
The powers that be have kept TV the same along with everything on it.
This will keep the people calm , until the next crises or this one gets worse.
Absolute Greed is eating big holes in our economy.
I'm affraid our only stop is for those that are owed to stop asking for their money that they are owed to a much later date.
Will this happen, Who The Hell Knows?

Sep 27 09:22 PM

[ray b:]

If you think Frye is a GS basher, you should visit the ZeroHedge site.


On Sep 26 01:20 PM cma wrote:

> Fry's GS bashing is getting old, especially considering that GS has
> paid back the US everything that GS owed, while GM has "borrowed"
> mega billions which the taxpayer will never see back. And not just
> GM, but Citibank and many other financial institutions with US preferred
> stock investments which are not being marked to market.
> How come we never here about these "loans" that have defrauded the
> US taxpayer but only hear about GS?

Sep 28 09:49 AM

[AndrewBaker:]

Very slowly the charts are showing that the rally is just about over, and holds up only when soundbites are believed by the naive and fund managers use incoming cash to buy so as to support their bonuses at the end of this year: IF the market fails to drop before then (which I feel is unlikely, as we have an October fall of large magnitude coming, in my opinion), then watch January plummet. Whenever, current prices are not going to hold, so don't factor in your current portfolio value when planning next year's spending.

Sep 28 11:58 AM

[Alex Biggs:]

nymag.com/guides/money.../


On Sep 28 09:49 AM ray b wrote:

> If you think Frye is a GS basher, you should visit the ZeroHedge
> site.

Sep 28 12:00 PM

[Gold Bug:]

Source : goldbasics.blogspot.com

China is stocking up in Gold and Silver , Gold soon at $1200 oz
Follow China, Buy Gold
Frank Holmes, CEO of U.S. Global Investors, argues that gold demand in China will stay strong, buoying precious metal prices. He also reveals his top stock picks.Gold outperforming stocks , the dollar is falling gold prices will shoot to the roof and may reach $1200 an ounce ...

Sep 28 12:36 PM