Cramer's Stop Trading! The Return of Housing (9/25/09)

Stocks discussed on Jim Cramer's Stop Trading! TV Segment, Friday September 25.

Research in Motion (RIMM), Apple (AAPL), McAfee (MFE), ArchSight (ARST), Abbott Laboratories (ABT), Solvay (SVYSY.PK), SPDR Gold Shares (GLD), Eldorado (EGO), Agnico-Eagle Mines (AEM)

Cramer thinks housing prices might start picking up in 2011 or 12, thanks to tax credits, lower inventories and decreased building. He urged investors to be positive on housing, but not to expect homebuilders to make money for a while because of price declines.

RIMM's 17% decline following earnings was due to a “an average selling price issue” and not demand, which has been high. RIMM has had to cut prices to keep up with its main competitor, Apple.

Cramer thinks the security software space is very strong, and likes McAfee, but prefers ArchSight, which focuses on cyber-terror. He predicts Abbott Labs will announce a deal with Solvay by Monday.

Gold will rise 20% in the next three years, according to Cramer, and his favorite gold picks in order are: GLD, Agnico-Eagle Mines, El Dorado, gold coins. However, Cramer admits he doesn't like the market right now, expects a 3-5% pullback and wouldn't get bullish until Tuesday or Wednesday.

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Comments

[superintell...:]

Cramer's no analyst or fortune teller; he's a clown. Don't understand why he even gets printed at all!

Sep 27 11:36 AM

[fwallace55:]

Although the market appears oversold at the closing of last week... maybe a bounce to follow, but isn't it possible more declines to follow ahead of next Friday's unemployment report ???

Sep 27 11:42 AM

[StockBoy:]

Cramer pushed Yamana Gold for two years - a complete DOG. I don't trust his judgement on AEM either.

Sep 28 08:24 AM

[Robert Intr...:]

If you listen to Crammer you will loose money. On Wed. 9/23, during stop trading, he stated that it was nice to see oil decoupling from the stock market. At the time the market was up and oil down. Guess what? The market ended down along with oil. Thur. And Friday market down, oil down. Today oil up and market up. Crammer will not mention his mistake, but I guarantee he will find some reason to pat himself and say how great he is.

Sep 28 11:40 AM

[Cramer #1:]

Nope Cramer is right on this one...

Altria (MO): "It has got unbelievable management, because it has a fabulous dividend. I think that MO’s dividend which was raised recently can go higher… this stock has $20 all over it."

The inner gem in Altria is that MO own 27.6% of SaBMiller #2 brewer in the world and one of the best Coke bottler in the world....

Read...

Ok....lets see numbers:

Value:
-Sab Miller: $10B
-UST:$10B
-John Middelton:$2.9B

Now the Value of PMUSA:
Only $13.5B for Philip Morris USA with over 50% market share in US...Imagine....

Marlboro’s share is larger than the combined share of the next ten largest cigarette brands and larger than R.J. Reynolds and Lorillard combined. In the fourth-quarter 2008, Marlboro gained 0.4 share points versus the prior year period growing to a 41.6 percent retail share, making it both the nation’s largest and fastest growing cigarette brand.

Imagine
R.J. Reynolds value is
Market Cap: 13.02B

And Lorillard is at $12.2B

Altria's Malboro brands is bigger than RAI & LO combined= +/- $25B market LOL now for $13.5B??? Hello???

"We were not surprised that Altria also announced that it is to keep its 28.5% stake in SABMiller. The company acquired its holding in 2002, and since then, the value of the investment has increased from $3.4 billion to over $10 billion. Altria's relatively low tax basis means the firm would face a hefty tax bill if it were to sell its equity stake. We think that at this stage, shareholders would be better served by Altria holding its economic interest in SABMiller."...

Looking at Yahoo numbers...my numbers above make sense....
$10B for SAB Miller
$10B for UST...
$2.9B for John Middelton...
the rest for PMUSA and PM Capital Corp=???

$48.56B-$10B-$10B-$2.9B= $25.66 for PMUSA
exactly like I said in my previous post...

THE Market give only $13.5B for PMUSA vs $25B for the real value...

Buffet would love this kind of cash flow and dividend company...at fire sale price...LOL

VALUATION MEASURES

Market Cap (intraday)5: 36.25B
Enterprise Value (27-Sep-09)3: 48.56B

Sep 28 02:41 PM