Prepare for the Tablet Wars

By John Biggs

I’m going to try writing longer form stuff for the weekends, sort of to stretch the old mental legs a bit and share a bit of the stuff that is floating through my transom, man, about tech and especially mobile and portable electronics.

Come back with me to 2001. A young man got up on stage one afternoon in November to announce something new and amazing: an operating system dedicated to tablet computing. That young man was Microsoft’s Bill Gates and that operating system was Windows XP Tablet PC edition.

Chances are that is the first and last time you saw a working tablet computer. Laptops, then, were monsters. They were heavy – 10 pounds or more – had small, bad batteries, and WiFi was just a dream for most people. It seemed, in those dark years, that laptop manufacturers could shave off pounds and complexity by removing the keyboard and offer a pen-based OS. After all, this was a post-PalmOS era when handwriting recognition was an input option we all knew and understood.

The thinking was this: if you can streamline applications – data entry applications being the target here – you could sell smaller, more expensive computers to medical and business clients. It didn’t work and Windows Tablet PC has been little more than a clever solution to a nonexistent problem.

So what’s with all the tablet talk lately?

We have entered an era of the thin and light computer and, rather than worrying about power we’ve become obsessed with the concept of thinness. This is why Apple, in their wisdom, created the MacBook Air and the iPod Touch. This is the same reason we are all salivating over the thought of tablets thinner than an issue of BusinessWeek and this is why laptop manufacturers – and Michael Arrington – are rushing to make them.

The Apple Tablet (or iPad or Tapplet) is real. It will have a capacitive touch screen and manufacturing difficulties are slowing down the tablet’s release to a crawl, thereby preventing us all from having one. It will be thin and, like the abhorrent HP DreamScreen, will focus on media. The extant tablet verticals – mostly in the medical industry – will still exist.

Note this new focus. Rather than trying to create a business machine, manufacturers understand people want bigger screens on which to consume web and media content.

So what can we expect in the next year? Well, first we have the CrunchPad. When all the bugs are worked out, it will be an amazing device – I’ve seen it. And I’m not just saying that because I’ve been intimately involved in the design process, because I wasn’t – that gives me a bit of perspective. Expect the CrunchPad to be a excellent device for blogging – that’s what Mike made it for – and for web apps. Don’t Expect much in the way of media. [I was wrong.]

Then there’s the iPad. This will eclipse the industry and for the rest of the year that’s all you’ll hear about. Trust me. Apple (AAPL) could require you to give this device three drops of blood every morning in order to satisfy the demonic hell-beast soul trapped inside it and we would, gladly. The release will be on par with the iPhone release and they’ll sell a million of them.

Then you have Microsoft’s (MSFT) Courier. It’s impressive, but it’s Microsoft; don’t expect that thing to take shape for two years and don’t expect it to take off until the second generation. Like the Zune, Microsoft will make a product but they won’t make it good until they have a little time to mull it over. I don’t think the Courier will be a player in 2010.

As for the rest of the devices, expect slow uptake by price conscious consumers and folks who don’t think it’s “cool” to own “name brand” technology and are real “hackers” (read: teenagers and European students). Archos, for example, is doing a lot of good work in the tablet space but they’re an also-ran. They are going the Tablet OS route, which is no good. Creative has some devices planned and it’s also clear that ChromeOS could power a nice device – provided HTC makes it.

As for connectivity most of these will have a 3G option – although I doubt the iPad will have 3G built-in. WiFi is an obvious second-best.

As for size, tablets, at least with capacitive screens, are weighed down by a huge hunk of metal that shields the electronics from the screen. This hunk of metal – and the glass – prevents us from getting a bigger iPod Touch and is what is keeping the iPad from coming out sooner. Once the world’s (i.e. China’s) scientists solve this problem we’ll get what we want. Until then it’s resistive all the way.

So prepare yourselves for the coming tablet wars and sock away a little cash because things are going to get interesting in 2010.

Original post

Comments

[Roger Knights:]

Here's a name for one of these that's memorable and kind-of makes sense, or anyhoo as much sense as the other names: the Tasket or Taskette. (= Small task handler.)

Sep 27 04:58 AM

[User 389100:]

You forgot gaming. Mobile folks desire ONE device. 2x iPhone-like or iTouch-like footprint max. That's where the worlds heading. The one that gets there first wins.

Sep 27 11:57 AM

[bobthenoob:]

Tablet wars? I seriously doubt Apple will be introducing one anytime soon. Costs, battery runtime and weight are probable reasons keeping Apple from releasing one and running Windows XP on the PC side is reason why it continues to be a product failure on the PC side.

I would expect an Apple tablet computer that has a battery runtime of 6-8 hrs, weighs less than 3 lbs, no more than 8x10x.5" thick and can run both regular OSX apps and iphone apps.

BTW, that rumored Courier tablet from MSFT looks heavy and with 2 screens, would need a bigger battery than a regular laptop.

Sep 27 12:57 PM

[Techtrader10:]

The tablet was a non-starter 8-10 years ago, and still is. The market is to small. The tablet is too small a niche to be a big item. There are too many other items that have come to the market that do things a tablet would have done.

Sep 27 01:00 PM

[GSlusher:]

"They were heavy – 10 pounds or more ..."

In a word, No. The Apple laptop current at the time was the PowerBook G4. It weighed 5.3 lbs. The previous model, the PowerBook G3 "Pismo," weighed 6.1 lbs. Check your facts before you publish.

Sep 27 02:27 PM

[Huntley:]

The Courier is complete FUD. Microsoft is on the offensive again and is doing anything and everything to take the buzz away from Apple. The rumored Pink phone won't be out until fall 2010 running a hacked together Windows Mobile 7. The Microsoft Stores will lose the company millions of dollars and are only being launched to do Apple some damage. It's the same with the Courier - don't expect a real product for 2 years, well after Apple has launched their product.

Sep 27 03:46 PM

[ebworthen:]

It is amusing to think of how many Birkenstock wearing - Prius driving - global warming cultists will be using electricity to run mercury filled tablets made of petroleum based plastic with a life expectancy of 3 years to replace a printed book that could last hundreds of years; and reading drivel.

Sep 27 06:45 PM

[SteveJobs:]

On Sep 27 06:45 PM ebworthen wrote:

> It is amusing to think of how many Birkenstock wearing - Prius driving
> - global warming cultists will be using electricity to run mercury
> filled tablets made of petroleum based plastic with a life expectancy
> of 3 years to replace a printed book that could last hundreds of
> years; and reading drivel.

... like seeking alpha.

Sep 28 09:49 AM

[Dialectical...:]

ebworthen:

I see your point, but considering it takes energy (and trees) to make each book, and books are heavy and expensive to ship (requiring lots of fuel along the way), there is a tipping point where it
it is more efficient (and more environmental) to read books which are electronically transmitted. I don't know exactly where that point is, and certainly many people don't read enough to justify the kindle, but some folks certainly do. (I don't know any Birkenstock wearing global warming cultists, but I think you were talking about net environmental impact...)


On Sep 27 06:45 PM ebworthen wrote:

> It is amusing to think of how many Birkenstock wearing - Prius driving
> - global warming cultists will be using electricity to run mercury
> filled tablets made of petroleum based plastic with a life expectancy
> of 3 years to replace a printed book that could last hundreds of
> years; and reading drivel.

Sep 28 10:54 AM

[oljoey:]

"It is amusing to think of how many Birkenstock wearing - Prius driving - global warming cultists will be using electricity to run mercury filled tablets made of petroleum based plastic with a life expectancy of 3 years"

Good thing Apple no longer using Mercury in any of their products or PVC plastics. oh..and I've had my current Mac for over 6 years...

Sep 28 12:53 PM