Turkey: Strong Enough to Go Without IMF Support

Turkey’s economy and relate ETF has strengthened enough to be left to its own devices. Recovery may be slow, but the country is now capable of standing without outside help.

International Monetary Fund Chief Dominique Strauss-Kahn stated that there is “no need now” for Turkey to agree on a loan deal, but the IMF is open to dealings if necessary writes Ibon Villelabeitia for Reuters. Turkey is rapidly developing and has a strong economy, with no indication that the economy needs aid from the IMF at this point, Strauss-Kahn said.

An increase in investor confidence has allowed the Turkish government to revise growth and budget targets. Economists are doubtful on whether Turkey is capable of reaching the new targets without IMF financing.

The Economy Ministry revised Turkey’s 2009 economic contraction to 6%. Growth in the economy could likely accelerate in 2011 after a return to growth in 2010.

Turkey’s Central Bank cut its refinancing rate to a record low of 7.25%, reports Laura Mandaro for MarketWatch. The accompanying statement made by the monetary policy committee was “dovish” and included remarks that easing bias may remain.

• iShares MSCI Turkey Invest Mkt Index (NYSEArca: TUR)

Max Chen contributed to this article.

Comments

[Brian P Shriver]

Well, Turkey is addicted to foreign borrowing, and the currency tends to blow up every few years for that reason. The Economist Intelligence Unit suggests that Turkey's external deficit is gonna vanish this year and next -- I'll believe it when I see it. More likely the trade balance has temporarily improved due to the global recession and dampened credit flows - and the deficit will pick back up again when the economy picks up.

The record low 7.5% interest rate is still very high relative to others, and will attract carry trade flows, which will exacerbate the deficit, baking in a currency crisis in a few years.

I confess I haven't been there recently, but I see no evidence of a fundamental shift in governance. I'll invest in Turkey when they run persistent trade surpluses.

2009 Sep 29 10:54 AM