Today in Commodities: What a Difference a Year Makes

Circumstances are far different than they were one year ago, some for the better some for the worse. Mid-day reversal in natural gas taking prices in November higher on the day after trading to $4.60 early. We are still wanting a correction before re-establishing longs for clients, ideally before a penetration of $5. Crude was volatile but uneventful forming an inside day slightly lower on today’s session.

We are starting to price out bullish plays in January orange juice and March coffee for clients. Stay tuned. Cocoa was lower by $29, our target remains 2850 on the December contract.

We advised clients to book profits on their long corn futures but will hold the December and March calls looking for a bit more. $3.48 in December is the next hurdle that needs to be overcome. Oats were higher by 3.8% today, why I point that out is in agriculture oats generally move first with the others to follow. This could be a sign of what is to come elsewhere, i.e wheat, corn, soybeans.

Equities saw little follow thru now that volumes have reappeared. We have clients positioned short ES puts expecting a revisit of 1000 on the S&P. Not clear if an ugly NFP number or weak Q3 earnings will be the catalyst, but we would suggest selling rallies that are contained by the recent highs.

Gold and silver were sideways; we expect a move lower and have aggressive traders short silver via puts. More conservative traders are waiting for a long entry from lower levels. On a trade above 122′oo in December 30-yr bonds take profits on longs. Currencies consolidated today, nothing has changed in our minds. Clients are long yen, short Euro and anticipating a US dollar rally.

Risk Disclosure: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options can be substantial. Past performance is no guarantee of future trading results.

Comments

[TonyNed:]

Oil appears to be near an inflection point as well and near the bottom of the momentum range. The US dollar is more than halfway through this upward movement however, the end is tougher to tell since it's in a bearish pattern and it looks as though it's bumping against the 50 RSI level. I would get long oil here. The risk level appears to low since the selling momentum appears to be waning.

Watch the railroads. The momentum appears to be at an inflection point.

Sep 29 07:36 PM

[Stocks on W...:]

Tell me about it, no one wanted to invest in commodities last year.

Sep 30 09:06 AM

[MARGARET TO...:]

I'M WATCHING OIL GO UP THIS MORNING. I OWN SOME WEST TESAS OIL PROPERTY.

Sep 30 01:32 PM