BLS vs. ADP Numbers: Employment Outlook Is Improving

Here's another update of the chart I first showed last month, comparing monthly changes in jobs according to both the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the folks at ADP. The ADP data for September were released today, and although they were not quite as good as expected, the numbers for the prior two months were revised upwards (to show fewer losses). The picture we get is the same, however: the economy is still losing jobs, but at a declining pace. At the current pace, the economy isn't likely to actually start adding jobs on net until late this year or early next year.

While this sounds like painful progress, it is nevertheless a recovery, and of the V-shaped variety, as the chart shows. Earlier this year we were losing about 750K jobs a month, and now only about 250K.

Comments

[Roger Knights:]

"TrimTabs Investment Research ... analysis of daily income tax deposits to the US Treasury projects 358,000 jobs lost in September, almost double the consensus estimate.":

seekingalpha.com/artic...

Sep 30 07:56 PM

[Roger Knights:]

PS: That's a "W".

Sep 30 07:56 PM

[Kalani Martin:]

You're crazy if you think BLS data is worth regurgitating, much less using as the basis for forming an opinion or coming to any conclusions. There is something to be said for using "accurate" data when doing any analysis. BLS data is simply not accurate, that's a fact. Even their own web-site explains to a basic degree how many pieces of data are not included for a variety of arbitrary reasons.

Sep 30 09:20 PM

[User 398866:]

I have a feeling you that either a position is speaking out of you or that you are a moron. How can anyone say we are losing "only" 250K jobs (look where that belongs in the historical charts). Also, basing conclusions on only one set of unemployment data...oh well. Check income, worked hours, involuntary part-time workers, i could go on...

your analyses are lately very shallow.

Oct 01 04:27 AM

[cayman:]

Beach Pundit,

Your still using that falling at a slower pace is better analogy, which is just wrong.

Did you miss the PMI report ????

Any furthermore we could not continue at that 750 or even 500 pace for too long. people need to make food, eat , drive busses nurses and many public sector jobs. The plumbing of the economy. The fact that we are still loosing jobs is frightening.

I applaud your optimism but look at the data carefully please and stop warping it to fit your viewpoint.

Oct 01 04:45 AM

[jeremiah74:]

this is still very far from being a V. it can be a V or a W. you are again hoping, and not thinking..

Oct 01 05:56 AM

[a fat panda:]

"Earlier this year we were losing about 750K jobs a month, and now only about 250K."

Please, please let just one of those 250K next month be, Calafia Beach Pundit from SeekingAlpha.

Oct 01 06:29 AM

[nevket240:]

Just another Pump monkey.
The BLS figures are just another indication of the moral corruption that has destroyed the US. Why give them cred by quoting them??

regards

Oct 01 09:22 AM

[enigmaman:]

You said"At the current pace, the economy isn't likely to actually start adding jobs on net until late this year or early next year."

When you say "on net" have you taken into consideration the underemployed (working, but less hours) , net employment figure or real job growth cannot happen until these 3 million are working full time again, so we wont be adding any new jobs until these workers hours have been fully restored. These underemployed were not factored into the unemployment number has it was rising and so I dont expect it to be factored in as it declines. The underemployed represented 125K lost jobs for every 500K jobs lossed.

One other thing what about the 150-175K new jobs needed every month for those newbies entering the work force, did you factor these in as well.

Im sure there are more question but answers to these would be nice!

Oct 01 09:28 AM

[Harry Tuttle:]

"Earlier this year we were losing about 750K jobs a month, and now only about 250K."

True.

It must "improve", otherwise, at -250k/month everyone will be unemployed.

Oct 01 09:51 AM

[Stone Fox C...:]

even with a graph showing the V just about all the comments dismiss it. Lots of people still in denial.

Oct 01 11:35 AM

[ETFdesk.com:]

Are we seriously in such bad shape that we are trying to spin 250K job loss as a positive indicator? Yes its better than 750K, but that is still horrendous. That would be considered a terrible month in previous recessions past. The mkt is up 60% since March and we have shed over 2 million jobs (more than all lost in to '01) recession. Add in demographics for job creation keeping with population growth we are in a serious hole. Interesting read: Wait Until 2017 Before Job Market Recovers, Report Sayshttp://etfdesk.com/headline.a...

Oct 01 12:59 PM

[Myny:]

The BLS abbreviation is pretty much self-explanatory. I was thinking lately, whom do i actually trust these days, and i came out with three choices right away. It was Zero Hedge, Rosie, and the chinese officials. Chinese are good, they dont care about cramer, calafia beach pundit, im pretty sure they dont care about timmy or ben, they care about themselves, which, in this case, is good. I like chinese.

Disclosure: im not chinese.

Oct 01 01:37 PM

[enigmaman:]

factor in todays unemployment report, maybe that V will morph in a U if we are lucky it not morph further into an L


On Oct 01 11:35 AM Stone Fox Capital wrote:

> even with a graph showing the V just about all the comments dismiss
> it. Lots of people still in denial.

Oct 01 02:31 PM