Beware the Ides of October

The yield on the 10-Year note

For the 10-Year I show weekly, monthly and semiannual supports at 3.457, 3.677, 4.000 and 4.176 with daily resistance at 3.250. The weekly chart favors lower yields as risk aversion trumps increasing supply.

Declining yields implies a flight to quality, which should limit stock market gains.

Comex Gold and Copper, and Nymex Crude Oil

For gold I show semiannual and monthly supports at $991.7 and $978.8 with quarterly and semiannual resistances at $1094.4 and $1,101.9. The weekly chart remains positive.

Gold is both an inflation hedge and a store of value during deflation. There is also the quality of being the currency of last resort. Higher gold is another warning the upside for stocks should be limited.

For copper I show my annual support at 240.20 with weekly resistance at 299.85 with an overbought weekly chart. To prove the global growth story, copper needs to breakout above the 200-week simple moving average at 291.93.

For crude oil my annual pivots $68.81 and $66.51 provided key pivots yet again, but the weekly chart shows declining MOJO. My new monthly and quarterly resistances are $82.98 and $83.16, which are the targets on a weekly close above the 200-week simple moving average at $75.00.

Housing and Financials

The Housing Sector Index (HGX) ended Wednesday below its 50-day simple moving average at 103.66, and the weekly chart will shift to negative on a close on Friday below the five-week modified moving average at 103.01.

HGX is thus warning that alls not well in the housing market. Check out my ValuTrader Model Portfolio, which is short Ryland Group (RYL) from $24.09 on September 17^th.

The America’s Community Bankers Index (ABAQ) is just above its 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages at 149.21 and 147.26. A trend below would warn that more bad loans loom.

The Regional Banking Index (BKX) is above its 21-day and 50-day simple moving averages at $46.39 and $44.63, and closes below that will warn that the bigger banks are also under renewed stress.

My ValuTrader model portfolio is short one “too big to fail” bank and four regional banks with mixed results so far. Subscribe and find out the names.

The Dow, S&P 500 and the NASDAQ

As September and the third quarter came to a close my annual pivot at 9,750 was a strong magnet. Ending the quarter below that level is a warning, but the weekly chart remains positive but overbought. My new monthly support is 9,306 with the annual pivot at 9,750 and annual resistance at 10,012.

For the S&P 500 bulls will not want to see a weekly close below new monthly pivot at 1033.3, as quarterly supports are down at 817 and 689.

For the NASDAQ bulls want to see a weekly close above my new monthly resistance at 2183. The tug-of-war is which comes first SPX below 1033 or the NASDAQ above 2183.

Disclosure: I Hold No Positions in the Stocks I Cover.

Comments

[Dean M:]

Sorry Rich, you already called the market top, I think it was back in July. You only get one bite at that apple.

Oct 01 08:47 AM

[willynill:]

That was an apple, this is an orange.


On Oct 01 08:47 AM Dean M wrote:

> Sorry Rich, you already called the market top, I think it was back
> in July. You only get one bite at that apple.

Oct 01 10:01 AM

[sid.v.:]

He was also very bearish in Aug....

Oct 01 05:51 PM