Will New Finds Mean the End of Peak Oil?

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 |  Includes: DBO, USO
by: Cam Hui, CFA

The October Qwest for Returns newsletter that I authored is out. Here is the abstract:

In this issue we present the case for peak oil, emphasizing that talking about peak oil today is not about how much oil there is in the ground, which we refer to as reserves, but the potential imbalance in oil extractive flows or, said differently, how much you can bring out of the ground at any one time. The facts are, the world is facing falling production and it is more difficult and expensive to replace production in the foreseeable future.

Six Saudi Arabias
Despite all of the headlines about discoveries, the IEA projects that the world needs to replace production equivalent to six Saudi Arabias by 2030. Meanwhile, the emerging market economies continue to grow and their resource demand will skyrocket as they grow. Even if we were to assume that demand stays flat to 2030, the world would need to replace production equivalent to four Saudi Arabias.