Portfolio Strategy Using Individual Country ETF Performance

Below is a table in order of the sum of the 3, 6, and 12 month returns for individual country ETFs. Each column represents returns for various timeframes and the percent each ETF is above (or below) the 200 day moving averages as of the close September 30th. Note that all country ETFs are above their 200 day moving average. The top 5 based on the sum of the 3-6-12 month returns are below-- at the end of July 3, the top ETFs were China related. Last month we saw a more diversified mix of strength and the absence of China: TUR (Turkey), EWD (Sweden), EWY (South Korea), EWP (Spain), EWO (Austria). At the end of September, there is a resource theme - 3 of the countries in the top 5 are resource rich. The country ETFs with highest momentum are TUR, THD (Thailand), EWZ (Brazil), EWA (Australia), RSX (Russia).

One potential strategy investors could use would be to purchase the top ETFs based on the sum of their returns over 3, 6, and 12 months. Or, one could purchase ETFs based soleley on 6 month returns (a strategy featured on ETF Screen). An additional twist would be to only purchase the top performing ETFs if they are also above the 200 day moving average.

The spreadsheet is posted in the right hand column along with several others under 'ETF & Timing Portfolios' on Scott's Investments and is updated monthly.

No disclosures

Ticker	Company	Free Trend Anal.	Performance (Quarter)	Half Year	Year	Sum	200-Day SMA	Price
TUR	iShares MSCI Turkey Invest Mkt Index	Here	31.97%	99.44%	16.34%	147.75%	51.90%	50.28
THD	iShares MSCI Thailand Invest Mkt Index	Here	21.10%	87.87%	26.93%	135.90%	43.45%	41.67
EWZ	iShares MSCI Brazil Index	Here	26.15%	73.84%	27.50%	127.49%	43.31%	67.64
EWA	iShares MSCI Australia Index	Here	33.97%	66.42%	18.08%	118.47%	45.14%	22.6
RSX	Market Vectors Russia ETF	Here	29.98%	89.16%	-1.49%	117.65%	50.44%	27.75
EWO	iShares MSCI Austria Investable Mkt Idx	Here	33.29%	77.80%	5.89%	116.98%	48.07%	21.94
EWY	iShares MSCI South Korea Index	Here	31.94%	60.34%	20.77%	113.05%	41.16%	47.38
PIN	PowerShares India	Here	14.80%	71.00%	25.19%	110.99%	37.67%	21.17
EWP	iShares MSCI Spain Index	Here	23.14%	66.27%	14.67%	104.08%	34.59%	50.03
EWS	iShares MSCI Singapore Index	Here	17.23%	68.50%	15.84%	101.57%	32.73%	10.75
EWD	iShares MSCI Sweden Index	Here	21.06%	59.79%	16.55%	97.40%	33.70%	23.17
EWN	iShares MSCI Netherlands Invstbl Mkt Idx	Here	28.71%	60.71%	4.21%	93.63%	34.08%	20.04
EWT	iShares MSCI Taiwan Index	Here	19.38%	46.14%	23.45%	88.97%	31.74%	12.32
EWH	iShares MSCI Hong Kong Index	Here	12.22%	51.56%	23.37%	87.15%	26.26%	15.52
EWK	iShares MSCI Belgium Investable Mkt Idx	Here	26.12%	61.77%	-2.33%	85.56%	36.30%	12.99
EWI	iShares MSCI Italy Index	Here	23.85%	60.96%	-1.35%	83.46%	30.92%	20.41
GXC	SPDR S&P China	Here	8.09%	45.48%	29.37%	82.94%	24.27%	66.69
PGJ	PowerShares Gldn Dragon Halter USX China	Here	8.68%	51.94%	21.44%	82.06%	26.70%	23.05
EWQ	iShares MSCI France Index	Here	24.14%	52.23%	1.76%	78.13%	29.91%	25.97
EIS	iShares MSCI Israel Cap Invest Mkt Index	Here	14.68%	46.13%	15.79%	76.60%	28.67%	48.91
EZA	iShares MSCI South Africa Index	Here	14.54%	44.80%	17.24%	76.58%	30.78%	54.75
EWM	iShares MSCI Malaysia Index	Here	12.92%	41.82%	21.44%	76.18%	22.82%	10.14
EWW	iShares MSCI Mexico Investable Mkt Idx	Here	17.45%	56.90%	-4.69%	69.66%	27.51%	43.68
ECH	iShares MSCI Chile Investable Mkt Idx	Here	5.72%	40.32%	22.14%	68.18%	21.95%	47.89
EWL	iShares MSCI Switzerland Index	Here	21.14%	41.41%	5.23%	67.78%	25.72%	21.72
FXI	iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index	Here	5.68%	41.30%	20.57%	67.55%	21.78%	40.92
EWG	iShares MSCI Germany Index	Here	20.86%	50.54%	-3.86%	67.54%	26.55%	22.19
EWC	iShares MSCI Canada Index	Here	17.26%	50.59%	-0.86%	66.99%	28.24%	25.48
EWU	iShares MSCI United Kingdom Index	Here	16.35%	46.74%	-2.39%	60.70%	24.39%	15.51
PJO	PowerShares FTSE RAFI Japan	Here	1.14%	25.59%	1.08%	27.81%	8.80%	36.62
JPP	SPDR Russell/Nomura PRIME Japan	Here	5.21%	26.36%	-6.25%	25.32%	11.15%	37.97
EWJ	iShares MSCI Japan Index	Here	4.19%	22.87%	-5.51%	21.55%	10.56%	9.94

Comments

[mbkelly75:]

One other idea would be to look at the dividend return. I made some nice gains in Brazil's ETF by waiting until the dividend return was 5% due to a drop in the price. Buying then gave me an easy way to buy low and locked in a nice return. When Bonds are paying +3% - getting 2% from an ETF made no sense to me. Waiting for the right time has paid me nicely. I would not invest in Russia's ETF under any circumstances though. That government's habit of shutting down the entire stock market for any reason at all makes me nervous.

Oct 04 02:35 PM

[sildenafil:]

Great idea. Thanks

Oct 28 05:33 AM