Will October's Market Mimic September's Comeback?

The market had seven months of consecutive gains after its March bottom:

We made a prediction in early May that the market would see consecutive monthly gains up to the end of this year (that is, we will see 10 non-stopping monthly gains this year).

So far, so good. We have three months to go to prove our prediction.

Traditionally, September is the weakest month in a year. But this year, we did not see the expected corrections. After a big one day drop on the first day of September, the market entered a momentum rally and made one high after another one.

Now the question facing every investors is how the market will do in October.

After yesterday's biggest one day drop in three months, people may think that the long-waited correction will finally arrive. Of course, as an investor, we need to prepare for a market correction. But this may be another attempt by market makers to shake out weak hands. The chart up to this point is very similar to last month's:

September 1 saw a big one day drop and another three days of losses in a row. People talked about a possible September correction then. But we did not see it. Instead, in the following days, the market made a very strong comeback.

October 1 saw another big one day drop. Will we see another strong comeback next week?

We are quite bullish on the market's future direction. Of course, only time will tell.

Comments

[jeandit75:]

Bravo

Oct 02 07:02 AM

[Old Trader:]

This morning's employment numbers don't bode fell for an "up" day today, either.

Oct 02 09:03 AM

[cyclingscholar:]

Thanks man! 2 uninterpreted charts, no analysis, and 'time will tell.'

Sounds like a press release from the Anointed One.

Oct 02 11:55 AM

[James Shaw:]

Our stand is very clear as can be seen in the post;

1. We believe that October will be an up month again:

"We made a prediction in early May that the market would see consecutive monthly gains up to the end of this year (that is, we will see 10 non-stopping monthly gains this year)."

2. We think that October may minic September's trend:

"Big loss first day, flat second day and will resume its up move next week."

"We are quite bullish on the market's future direction."

Oct 03 08:13 AM

[James Shaw:]

You are right on the employment numbers but market did quite good today:

Down at open but come back later and closed with a small loss.

Next week will be UP and UP.

Employment is only one of many economy indicators.

- US will see positive GDP in Q3;

- Consumer started spending, personal income sees growth again;

- Technology sector has been strong, chip sector in particular. Chip orders have been up for 6 consecutive months. Intel upped its numbers several times.

- Many companies made remarkable turnaround in Q2, turned from big losses to profitable one. Big banks, big insurance companies, REIt's, Newspapers, chip companies, ...

Actually we have turned bullish from November 2008: We claimed early this year that 2009 will be once in a life time investment opportunity.

Now is still not too late to enter the market.


On Oct 02 09:03 AM Old Trader wrote:

> This morning's employment numbers don't bode fell for an "up" day
> today, either.

Oct 03 08:30 AM

[Mistrofan:]

I am not that sure fore for Oct - but I am with you for the next 6 months. The 2 coming positive quarters will help stocks.


On Oct 03 08:30 AM James Shaw wrote:

> You are right on the employment numbers but market did quite good
> today:
>
> Down at open but come back later and closed with a small loss.<br/>
>
> Next week will be UP and UP.
>
> Employment is only one of many economy indicators.
>
> - US will see positive GDP in Q3;
>
> - Consumer started spending, personal income sees growth again;<br/>
>
> - Technology sector has been strong, chip sector in particular. Chip
> orders have been up for 6 consecutive months. Intel upped its numbers
> several times.
>
> - Many companies made remarkable turnaround in Q2, turned from big
> losses to profitable one. Big banks, big insurance companies, REIt's,
> Newspapers, chip companies, ...
>
> Actually we have turned bullish from November 2008: We claimed early
> this year that 2009 will be once in a life time investment opportunity.
>
>
> Now is still not too late to enter the market.

Oct 03 11:11 PM

[John Lounsbury:]

As soon as a large majority are convinced that the next month will be up, that's when the market will go down. We are getting there.

Oct 06 11:15 PM