September Unemployment: Ouch! 29 comments
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Headlines: 263,000 "jobs lost" and unemployment rate up to 9.8%.
That's not good - there goes the "second derivative" argument.
Weekly earnings are also down by $1.54, which is bad news too.
But the Household Data is VASTLY worse than reported. Here are the month-over-month changes, and they're in the realm of frightening. (all numbers in thousands)
Civilian Labor Force: 154,879 to 153,617 this month.
Employed: 140,074 down to 139,079 this month.
That's a loss of 995,000 jobs, not 263,000, and the labor force contracted by 1,262,000 people!
The participation rate was absolutely decimated, down 0.6% this last month alone. The people "not in the labor force" rose by a staggering 1,516,000 in the last month.
The government doesn't count people as "unemployed" who have given up and exited the labor force, but as I have repeatedly noted, whether the government counts them or not the corner store owner sure as hell does!
The fact of the matter is that nearly 1 million fewer people were working in September as compared to August; there has been absolutely no improvement in that trend whatsoever.
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This article has 29 comments:
Mr. Denninger. It's time for you to step up to the plate and tell us what we're supposed to do.
:
-Payrolls loss is accelerating not improving, meaning that the next few months unemployment rate % should keep creeping higher.
-Avg weekly work hours dropped to 33.0 the lowest ever (and tied with Jun'09) - this is BAD - those that are working are working less, making less weekly earnings, and means job creating will be slow to come. This could also play negatively to productivity.
-Avg (and also median) time in weeks for unemployed job seekers to look for jobs increased.. most people out of work now are waiting more than half a year to get a new job!
-The 9.8% represents the so-called U-3 measure of labor underutilization. (www.bls.gov/news.relea...)
This is the "official" seasonally adjusted unemployment rate BUT it discludes those unemployed who stopped looking for a job and gave up, those who are so-called UnderEmployed, people who are forced into temporary or part-time jobs but would like full employment due to economic reasons and so on. All those are lumped into the U-6 # which is now an astounding 17.0% and that represents a much clearer picture of the current jobs situation.
-The unemployment rate amongst teenagers and students has risen to a staggering 25.9% .. young job seekers must be VERY discouraged and probably will be the most affected going forward with a longer lasting impact on their psyches and thus the future of American productivity and innovation.
-Our job force and employment profile in the USA might be getting "dumber".. The unemployment rate for those without even a HS diploma fell from 15.6% to 15.0%, meanwhile those with diplomas, or college and higher degrees rose! This has been a trend over the past few months and not just a one-off.
-Unemployment insurance initial (and continuing) jobless claims continue to be large, but even more interestingly they seem to be constantly revised WORSE week to week.
So.. the unemployment and jobs market continues to be weak despite the constant assurances from the gov't and the mass media that things are improving or at least stabilizing. These data speak clearly and the fact is that this recession is NOT over and we will not see a recovery until people start working and producing and earning money again. Without steady income, consumers cannot and will not spend. Additionally, unemployed people tend to have little or no private health insurance coverage and this will put a huge damper on growth, the health care system and the gov't.
The markets in the past few days have recognized the data and reacted accordingly. Hopefully the future will improve but right now I am a bit scared still!
-AH
market-ticker.org/arch...
The drop in the average work week just underlines how long any recovery might take to translate into improving employment.
When the turnaround eventually happens, companies will first choose to increase the work week for their exisiting...then they will re-hire full time all the workers that they have become part-time by force...and THEN they would make any attempt at hiring new workers from the job market. So that's quite a few steps until companies step up hiring!
For more analysis, check out my blog: youngandinvested.com
Jobs.
Midwest manufacturing
car sales
Rail -18 YOY and -16 WOW
BDI not recovering
etc..
The plot thickens....
Printing money has only delayed the inevitable. The only question is how far the pain can be pushed into the future. The longer the day of reckoning is delayed, the more painful it will be.
The fact that banks are trading instead of lending is quite usual in this kind of situations( i experienced it in other countries before) is just a rational choice between alternatives.
No doubt many in the list are in trouble and some of them will fail but this is alarmist even saying that FDIC will not cover deposits....c´mon....p... the devil is behind scene?
On Oct 02 11:56 AM 1stFRONT wrote:
> This is situation in all US banks, some have no assets, no liquidity
> and will go bust first, the others that have daily high trading volume
> are the black holes, also with no assets and no money but with a
> high trading desks order clicks popularity. This volumes are not
> normal, it reflect very high percentage of RUN ON A BANK candidates.
>
> Only we have full RUN ON THE BANK list. Is your bank next?
> tinyurl.com/okjucw
>
> US Price % Gainers
> Cowlitz Bancorporation $1.35 +25% Volume 6100
> Tidelands Bancshares $3.40 + 21% Volume 4500
> Putnam Savings Bank $3.02 + 15% Volume 100
> River Valley Bancorp $15.74 + 12% Volume 100
> Patriot National Bancorp $2.35 + 12% Volume 1700
> Monarch Community Bancorp $4 + 12% Volume 100
> Siebert Financial Corp $2.62 + 12% Volume 2250
> The Elmira Savings Bank $14.88 +11% Volume 800
There I have deconstructed the Household Survey.
It is a LOT worse than it looks folks. During the entire last "expansion" we did not in fact add jobs in actual net terms (that is, when counting for the new working-age people coming in less those retiring or dying.)
The monthly data is very noisy; using a simple y/o/y filter removes that and the trend pops right out in your face.
Perhaps they pull another rabbit out of their Alice-In-Wonderland playbook or hat despite all this evidence to the contrary. Were the last 8 years of record indebtedness and financial malignancy, prosperity? Are we now to call this, recovery?
The point isn't to pull the rabbit out of the hat, but rather convince you that there is a rabbit in the hat waiting to be pulled out.
This is why we are depending upon debt to pull us out of the downturn. Consumer debt pulls demand forward. So we buy cars this year that we would have bought 2 or 3 years from now. The political solution makes economy appear to be bottoming when in fact all we have done is to create a deeper problem 2 and 3 years out.
On Oct 02 03:33 PM Leftfield wrote:
> Count me as one who has lamented, if not derided, perhaps, excoriated,
> the bs in our economy and the reporting thereof. Self-employed always,
> the struggle has made me resentful and suspicious of the powers-that-be
> and their hangers-on (most voters). Paying government ever-mounting
> sums to impede and intrude, watching deadweights in deadwood jobs
> with benefits (government in particular) sail ahead blissfully by
> comparison, and then, watching the meltdown last fall with worse
> crony bailouts and MSM lying than even I could have imagined. <br/>Perhaps
> they pull another rabbit out of their Alice-In-Wonderland playbook
> or hat despite all this evidence to the contrary. Were the last 8
> years of record indebtedness and financial malignancy, prosperity?
> Are we now to call this, recovery?
Watch them, Karl is for real and speaking the truth.
Scary! At least for the market cheerleaders and smoke and mirror manufacturers.
Scary truths but ones we need to hear.
It doesn't take a genius to see that the average taxpayer has been robbed, bludgeoned over the head on the way home from work, their wallet and their loaf of bread yanked from them, by the very people who purport to serve them.
Weekly unemployment claims (as reported here seekingalpha.com/artic... ) is, I assume, a more or less robust figure, i.e. relatively easy to compile: number of claims, hard cash paid out, reported to the Bureau of Labor. And it does look quite positive or - more correct - a bit less negative.
Alternative measures of labor underutilization (as reported here www.bls.gov/news.relea... ) use metrics such as “marginally attached” and “discouraged” workers. The percentages do not look very good.
Given a total Civilian Labor Force of 153 Million people or thereabouts, I wonder how the Bureau of Labor comes up with the reported percentages? How and where do they find, count and evaluate the mood swings of all these “discouraged” workers – every month? No less to the tenth fraction of a percent? Precise but not accurate? Would appreciate pointers where I can find information about the methodology used, +/- uncertainty, confidence level, statistical population and so forth.
Have a good day
Here is a market-driven approach, which will not by itself cure the housing market, but it will at least improve the health of the system.
seekingalpha.com/insta...
On Oct 02 11:33 AM SA Editor M. Hunt wrote:
> Mr. Petroski, here's video of Mr. Denninger 'stepping up to the plate':
>
> market-ticker.org/arch...
The 571k figure is a result of adding the decrease in employment to the increase in unemployment (-785+214 = -571). The increase in those not in the labor force (dead weight) is also particularly troubling at 807k.
Make no mistake, these are "plague of locusts" numbers.
On Oct 02 12:42 PM djackson wrote:
> You are using numbers that are not seasonally adjusted. For example,
> it a college student headed back to school last month, that is not
> like losing a job or dropping out of the labor force. The participation
> rate dropped 0.3 and the labor force declined 570k on seasonally
> adjusted terms. Not quibbling direction, but accuracy.
Go Boy ! Now I KNOW why I follow you !
Leftfield, I have either owned, or managed, small businesses for the better part of the past 20 years (plus a couple bigger corporate stints, great money but I hated it). Michigan led the nation into the recession, and I could SEE the devastation taking place everywhere, not just Michigan, so I knew this was coming. Then Congress passed the '05 consumer credit screwing and I predicted that the change would wipe out the insanity that our economy had become. So, though it felt like it, you are not alone.
Mark, I also doubt there is much hiring this season, but seasonally adjusted numbers should look fabulous! We also need to keep in mind that quite a few people will be hired and let go/quit and go back on an old claim. No pesky new claims stats affected. Another completely overlooked stat, August factory orders dropped and manufacturing shed even more jobs (as you well know, been shedding this jobs since '00) and September is not going to come in any better I fear. And the ISM, as usual, showed "expansion."
We are being led to slaughter and any of us that speak out are being marginalized. I appreciate those, like you, that keep up the good fight.
I know which it is. I watch CSPAN congressional hearings regurlarly and I see firsthand what sad ignorant morons the public elects to represent them. It is truely tragic to see the utter lack of comprehension, the majority of these "representatives" AND "senators" exhibit about economics, business, finance during these public hearings. Or else, their vanity, callousness, are deliberate, which is equally mind-numbing.
From automobiles to newspapers, evolutions in technologies, as well as changes in temperament and taste, are yielding significant and everlasting changes in whole industries, to include seeing to their outright elimination. This condition will persist long after the current, shorter-term economic troubles have ended, and for many the remedy will be found with adaptation; the ability to recognize, with great foresight, the societal changes in direction and smartly react to them.
The adaptation about which I speak may take any of a variety of forms in its manifestation. It may mean physically moving from your present location to one where jobs are more plentiful; it may mean returning to school, to earn advanced certifications or a new profession altogether; it may mean harnessing the power and opportunity presented by the Internet age to cultivate multiple streams of income from several of the mechanisms available therein.
Adaptation is not always pleasant, because adaptation means more work and sacrifice. That said, the writing is on the wall, my friends, and those who choose not to see it may well find themselves represented in unemployment figures long after the current economic mess is a part of history.
------------------
Money without intelligence is like a car without a road.
www.intelligentinvesti...
On a superficial level, you're correct, but (I'm offering only anecdotal evidence), how many of those returning students are returning in pursuit of a higher degree, since they can't find work in their field of study?
I've run into a substantial number of young people who are chosing to "hunker down" and wait out the current economic malaise in the groves of academia, either because their parents can afford to help them do so, or, in a much larger number of cases, piling up even larger amounts of student loan debt.
On Oct 02 12:42 PM djackson wrote:
> You are using numbers that are not seasonally adjusted. For example,
> it a college student headed back to school last month, that is not
> like losing a job or dropping out of the labor force. The participation
> rate dropped 0.3 and the labor force declined 570k on seasonally
> adjusted terms. Not quibbling direction, but accuracy.
That's all this whole article is - and every article he's every written. "Things are much worse than anyone thinks!" He puts up sensational headlines and copy and all the lemmings rush right to him. There's been many times where he's told people that world was coming to an end. You don't hear much about that on his dumb blog or forum anymore - TEOTWAWKI used to be posted dozens of times daily way back in 2007. Funny, the world as I know it has continued for 2 more years. I'm quite sure it will continue for many more.
On Oct 02 11:26 AM Tony Petroski wrote:
> The title of the article is "Ouch." I agree, "ouch."
>
>
> Mr. Denninger. It's time for you to step up to the plate and tell
> us what we're supposed to do.
> Mr. Petroski, here's video of Mr. Denninger 'stepping up to the plate':
>
> market-ticker.org/arch...
Ms. Hunt, thanks for posting this link. I assure you, I would never have seen this video otherwise. For those of you who haven't seen Karl Denninger "step up to the plate", I urge you to click on the link and watch it. The guy's bang on the money.