Android, iPhone Ride Rising Tide

The latest AdMob statistics show that the iPhone share of global mobile web browsing has risen from 33 to 40%. Interestingly, its share in Western Europe (67%) and Oceana is higher than in North America (52%).

By eyeballing it, the iPhone’s impact is diluted due an impressive 13% share here for Android. (Android is only 6% in Western Europe). Since February, Android has jumped from 2% to 7% worldwide, in part due to the new HTC myTouch (Magic).

Palm’s (PALM) webOS jumped from 0 to 4% in the same period, or 9% in North America, which suggests that North America is 45% of the sample.

GigaOM and others have analyzed the data. Here’s a few points I haven’t seen.

First, market share data doesn’t capture the effect of growing the market. Windows, Symbian and RIM (RIMM) have lost share, but I don’t think this means fewer Blackberry owners are surfing the web. The AdMob data said that mobile web page requests grew 9% from July to August, translating to a 180% annualized growth rate.

After many years of hopes and predictions, the mobile Internet is growing rapidly, and that growth is coming from the most exciting devices — the various incarnations of the iPhone, and the more recent (and more limited) Android and webOS choices. As others have noted, the latter two platforms seem to have lots of potential for growth.

This reinforces the point that Mike Mace and I made two years ago — that the iPhone found a way to deliver the mobile web that everyone was waiting for). Apple got their first, by recognizing the failings of early offerings (see: WAP). By the way, this cements the dominance of WebKit — these three hot platforms are all WebKit, and when you add in Symbian (mostly WebKit S60), that’s 85% of all mobile web browsing in this samle.

The data are somewhat distorted by the fact that these three growing platforms are being sold (at least in the US) with a bundled data plan at an additional $40-50/month — while it’s still possible to buy a Nokia (NOK) or Windows Mobile (or Treo) smartphone without such a data bundle. There is a selection effect: the only people who buy these devices are those who expect to use the Internet enough to make that cost worthwhile.

The US carriers will eventually run out of people who want to permanently increase their phone bills $600 a month, so they will either have to loosen up on tethering (allowing 20-somethings to cancel their cable or DSL), cut their prices, or expect a cap in the growth of their growth in 3G data usage.

In fact, one place where Android (so far) is not playing is the PDA market. The iPod Touch is about 40% of the total iPhone OS market share, and while they’re not being used to surf the web out in the national parks, they can be used to surf the web at home, work, a college campus or public library. The Zune HD has won good reviews — will this bring up the share of Windows Mobile more than any phone?

Finally, what is the future of Flash for the mobile web? Apple (AAPL) remains adamantly opposed, even if most of its rivals (save RIM) have embraced Adobe’s (ADBE) ubiquitous multimedia platform.

Personally, I’m hoping Apple wins this fight. At least as implemented by Adobe and used by web designers, Flash is an abomination — the single worst thing about the Internet. A computer, web browser and cable modem that would otherwise zip through the web suddenly grind to a halt because of some idiot’s self-centered effort to create catchy graphics in a futile hope of distinguishing their website. Phones have even slower connections and processors, so the last thing we need is to waste that limited bandwidth on websites that benefit the website owner rather than the web visitor.

Disclosure: none

Comments

[Yagottabe K...:]

How is "marketshare" computed? Do those who calculate "marketshare" rely on sell-through numbers from the various manufacturers? If not, how else do they get (number of units sold by manyfacturer X)/total units by everyone)?

Now that we know Palm reports "sell-through" numbers that INCLUDE sales by their main (Pre) distributor, Sprint, to retailers (and, quite likely, even sales to distributors - those who sell to retailers )- that is, NOT end-consumers and NOT part of any "marketshare" - how is their marketshare number computed?

Oct 04 05:55 AM

[JamesApple:]

Confusion reigns from 2005 to 2010 as mobile devices are married to capable web browsers but with the exception of Apple are severely handicapped in functionalities such as Research in Motion's eMail-only over simplified blackberrys yet still calling blackberrys smartphones blindsiding the unknowing public causing undue super massive mob ignorance allowing Rim to reap huge profits before year 2007, but realizing hyper depressed profit margins since Apple's redefinition of smartphone with its revolutionary iPhone and iPod Touch which are quickly reaching artificial intelligent device capabilities (ability to be smart), obsoleting the Rim products overnight, isolating Rim as nothing more than glorified message pager phones with email only which are unwanted without a future.

Rim will go bankrupt citing its inability to save itself from obsolescence. Probably before year 2012.

Apple will enrich its application bases with iPhone device level artificial intelligence engines each seamlessly trade knowledge and insights by exploiting wisdoms actively executing on extremely powerful and collaborating Apple Servers using Apple OS level server virtualization in highly intelligent code segments called 'Smartlets' acting as 6th generation language based applications and services capable of total independence from client-server paradigms. In no way will the Smartlets resemble servlets, applets, or bots. Smartlets are born from workflow tasks and resemble custom workflow tasks but unlike main function() driven lifecycles, are time driven.

Oct 04 08:38 AM

[JamesApple:]

How do hundreds of thousands of birds fly together in one single unified direction inflight? There are secrets there to be unlocked which will greatly relieve our network bandwidth congestion problems. Apple can solve the mystery, and benefit Apple users in Web 3.0

Oct 04 08:50 AM

[mollytjm:]

The entire world is waking up to the fact that Apple innovation is the best. i don't know that Rim will be out of business soon...there are a lot of company CEO's that aren't technology savvy and they listen to their IT departments. Those departments know that if the company goes Apple, the company won't need so many tech people, whose salaries are high. Those particular employees will keep the myth going about Windoze etc.
So in companies not feeling the crunch, unsavvy CEO's won't make any changes. But in those companies looking to lower operating costs, the CEO might eventually figure out that a CEO salary will fare better if other operating costs are cut, and eventually look at IT. Rumors of easier to use and less glitchy 'everything Apple' are hard to ignore forever.
There's no use looking at Rim or Palm for fast innovation...they just aren't good at it. Apple is the only proven producer AND a company with so much financial stability and backup (and no debt) that it's almost bullet proof. Nothing in this world is 'for sure'. But Apple is as close as it gets.
Long APPL

Oct 04 09:01 AM

[Gusmaster:]

Adobe has been poor in their approach to manage all macromedia products converting those on slow programs complicated and things that nobody like today. How ever the hardware for mobile devices should change with more memory better processors etc, allowing rich multimedia content to be displayed.
It is true , apple has the most amazing device, talking about the hardware, software and it change the mobile computing experience. But palm has created the Pre another great device that is trying to gain market and has the most amazing user experience after the iPhone, and it is because palm needs what apple has: followers, and application & music store. Palm connect their Pre with or without apple permission leaking on delivering what users are looking for in a iPhone consolidate all in one place.
Rim with black berry will need to follow palm steps first to try to keeping the sales like I said long time ago a motorola phone has better user experience than a blackberry and it's known the sales driver is the blackberry im, nothing else.....
Android has a chance but more about what users want all in one place and a real web experience. To make it clear users want a pc web experience in their mobile devices apple has it no one else than palm is close to deliver it.

Oct 04 09:47 AM

[Mudduckk:]

Nice one. lol. I agree. Joel West Says, "Flash is an abomination — the single worst thing about the Internet. A computer, web browser and cable modem that would otherwise zip through the web suddenly grind to a halt because of some idiot’s self-centered effort to create catchy graphics in a futile hope of distinguishing their website. Phones have even slower connections and processors, so the last thing we need is to waste that limited bandwidth on websites that benefit the website owner rather than the web visitor."

Oct 04 12:16 PM

[JamesApple:]

Apple is capable to carry on where the 5th generation AI left off in the 1980s with stupid languages like Lisp and Prolog. Apple is closest to the universities like Carnegie Mellon which invented AI. Current rage on BI is a crippled version of what AI was 25 years ago. With iPhone AI can be reborn again refueling the once mighty American enterprises with prowess, vitality, youth, and wisdom to lead the world again.

America should take the millions of dollars given to sports stars, taken by greedy nonpoductive CEOs, and reward the enterprising educated scientists, engineers, and computing stars. Bill gates and Steve Jobs had to get their billions from hard knocks, when are we going to foster, support, and nourish our own Einsteins with sports stars kind of rewards? Einsteins will make our nation super strong, not Michael Jordan, or Donald Trump!

Oct 04 12:40 PM

[JamesApple:]

Prophets and sages have wisdom without knowledge. Scientists have knowledge without wisdom. Knowledge gives confidence but once disproved, destroys faith. Faith gives conviction, but once misplaced, destroys harmony.

Apple has both advanced knowledge and legendary customer faiths. Only with such a combination can civilizations progress with confidence and conviction, giving birth to glorious civilizations.

Convergence of various technologies and paradigms are underway. Apple is my clear choice. I look for Apple and its partners to deliver 6th generation tools and languages running on iPhone platform, and Apple infrastructures to begin righting so many wrongs happening in our world today.

Lisp and Prolog were fun to program with. But I got stuck programming the 'Tower of Hanoi', Alice, and Animal. I need a real AI platform, not Robotics, not BI.

I will develop solutions which do not need migration from legacy apps, databases, batch jobs, scripts, screens; I will develop programs which constantly learn, remember, synthesize, maneuver, function, and produce results. The key is 'learn', I will make the iPhone learn, and work for us.

Oct 04 01:00 PM

[jack dee:]

looks like number fanboy is preaching again. This is exactly how investors lose money. Love fests with products, and believing the hype.

Apple has a great high end product. But the simple truth is that most of the phones sold around the world are pulling in less then $15 dollars a months with the fastest growing segments under $10 dollars a month. the iphone does not fit in these markets, and as such gives up on 75% of the world market without a fight.


will apple rot and whither? Of course not but neither will apple take over the globe.

Oct 04 03:21 PM

[JamesApple:]

As Jack the devil snares at Heaven complaining about it's height.

Oct 04 03:34 PM

[DelGaudio:]

Stating that Flash's main use is for 'some idiot’s self-centered effort to create catchy graphics in a futile hope of distinguishing their website' demonstrates the authors limited understanding and Internet technology.

I'm not a pro-Flash champion. In fact, I don't think Flash should be on the iPhone because of the reasons the author has stated. However, to dismiss Flash technology as a whole would be dismissing entire market segments where Flash is still a superior technology. This includes games, video, visualization and dare I say, distributed web applications (think Tweet Deck). Flash is also good at speaking to audiences who are stimulated by more immersive and entertaining interactive experiences. Marking web sites for the movie and fashion industries for example.

Oct 04 07:31 PM

[KenC:]

You wrote, "The US carriers will eventually run out of people who want to permanently increase their phone bills $600 a month"

Strangely, noone so far has commented upon your math. Presumably, above, you meant year, but even the, you are implying that data plans are $50 a month, which they are not. They are $20 to $30 a month.

I have an iPhone 3G, and my data plan is $20 a month. Why? I live in an EDGE area, with 3G 100 miles away. I pay the EDGE rate even though when I'm in 3G-land, I get 3G speeds.

So, data plans are not as outrageous as you seem to believe.

Oct 04 11:08 PM

[HereAndNow:]

Speaking of web browsers, I have not idea what kind of browser Microsoft thinks they put in the Zune HD.

Try the following Acid3 test, on the Zune HD & the iPhone 3GS:

acid3.acidtests.org/

These are the results you should expect:
iPhone 3GS - 100/100
Zune HD - 5/100

Microsoft wants everyone to believe they are back in the game, but they can't even deliver a basic web browser that comes close to supporting open web standards.

Oct 05 04:44 AM

[southbeach:]

was about to comment on that 600 a month! thanks for taking care of it. always worth a re-read before publishing an article, particularly things like ARPU figures...


On Oct <span title="Convert this amount" class="currency_conver... 11:08 PM KenC wrote:

> You wrote, "The US carriers will eventually run out of people who
> want to permanently increase their phone bills $ 600</span> a month"
>
>
> Strangely, noone so far has commented upon your math. Presumably,
> above, you meant year, but even the, you are implying that data plans
> are $<span title="Convert this amount" class="currency_conver...
> </span> a month, which they are not. They are $<span title="Convert
> this amount" class="currency_conver... to $<span
> title="Convert this amount" class="currency_conver...
> a month.
>
> I have an iPhone <span title="Convert this amount" class="currency_conver...
> </span>G, and my data plan is $<span title="Convert this amount"
> class="currency_conver... a month. Why? I live in
> an EDGE area, with <span title="Convert this amount" class="currency_conver...
> </span>G <span title="Convert this amount" class="currency_conver...
> </span> miles away. I pay the EDGE rate even though when I'm in
> <span title="Convert this amount" class="currency_conver...
> </span>G-land, I get <span title="Convert this amount" class="currency_conver...
> </span>G speeds.
>
> So, data plans are not as outrageous as you seem to believe.

Oct 05 06:45 AM

[dicklacara:]

Re: Flash. One of its major problems is that it is memory-leaky and a CPU hog on Mac OS X. I recently observed a situation where no Flash pages were open, but some had been (YouTube). The Flash plugin was using 105% CPU of a 2.8 Ghz Core 2 Duo.

Some years ago, an Adobe speaker in a talk about RIAs (Rich Internet Applications), said that Flash offered a "Rich" experience to a broad "Reach" of consumers.

"Rich and Reach". My experience has been: Rich, Reach, Retch!

I am happy that Apple refuses to allow Flash on the iPhone and iPod Touch.

Most of my need for Flash on the iPhone was satisfied when YouTube re-compressed its content to h.264 giving higher quality, lower bandwidth, and the ability to bypass Flash by using the iPhone YouTube app.

That said, there was one special case where I missed out, because of lack of Flash on the iPhone. I have a friend who does a weekly LiveCast using the Stickam web site. During her LiveCasts, I found myself at a Park watching the grandkid's soccer practice, iPhone in hand but unable to watch (No Flash).

Ah, like YouTube, Stickam saw the potential of millions of iPhones, and has just released an app that bypasses Flash.

I've checked the app out-- it has a few warts, but works pretty good. The real test will come tonight (every Tuesday night, 6:00 PM PDT) when I watch Sheena Melwani (Singer, Lyricist, Composer). Check it out ( my chat name is _Kokopelli )!

The point of all this is that I believe that Flash will not come to the iPhone OS X platform-- that content providers will bypass Flash with custom apps that provide a superior experience.

Gradually, as the next level of HTML gains browser support on traditional computers, the need for proprietary video plugins will be reduced, then eliminated.

Oct 05 08:28 AM

[Wireless Wiz:]

The AdMob stats are questionable in that they are mainly focused on iphone/ipod touch. A broader view of ad stats would be a better measure.

JamesApple's rants have gotten old. It's the same crap spewed over and over. We get it James, you love apple and hate rim. Fine. Now try to add something to the conversation instead of writing the same comment over and over and over. Maybe you can get your iPhone infused with A.I. to do it for you?

Oct 05 10:50 AM

[User 208528:]

The Business Insider has pointed out,

"Meanwhile, we'd caution paying too close attention to some other conclusions drawn from AdMob's mobile metrics report, such as TechCrunch's post claiming that the iPhone represents 50% of U.S. smartphone Web traffic.

TechCrunch got this line directly from AdMob's report -- but that's the problem. While the iPhone may represent 50% of smartphone traffic on AdMob's network, that is not necessarily an accurate depiction of the broader mobile Web. Why not? AdMob's stats significantly favor the iPhone because of its vast ad inventory in iPhone apps -- ads that are not available on other phones -- and on iPhone-tailored Web sites, which won't work on some phones.

So while AdMob's stats offer a nice look inside their mobile ad business and could be directionally correct in a broader context, they are not an accurate, normalized gauge of overall mobile Web traffic."

Oct 05 11:17 AM

[jack dee:]

Yes of course James I "snare" at heaven, most would sneer. But then I guess as long as you get enough hate into your posts, what does it matter.


On Oct 04 03:34 PM JamesApple wrote:

> As Jack the devil snares at Heaven complaining about it's height.

Oct 05 05:02 PM

[sildenafil:]

Convergence of various technologies and paradigms are underway. Apple is my clear choice. I look for Apple and its partners to deliver 6th generation tools and languages running on iPhone platform, and Apple infrastructures to begin righting so many wrongs happening in our world today.

Oct 28 05:44 AM