Will Windows 7 Resurrect IT Spending?

By John Biggs

I was on a panel a few weeks ago with Rob Enderle a few weeks back and he was asked by an international journalist what he expected in terms of financial news in the next few months. He made a very interesting point that, being an Apple (AAPL) fanboy, I ignored at the time. He said that Windows 7 would drive a whole new wave of hardware buying and inflate (in a good way) IT spending.

I filed this tidbit away next to my thoughts of maybe one day buying a Zune, but then I cracked open the HP Envy 13 and thought back on my own recent experience with Windows 7— and what he’s saying makes sense.

A few calls later and I found that a number of IT guys I know are genuinely excited about installing Windows 7 in their shops, guys for whom Vista didn’t even register. We’re about see an IT renaissance, and it will be driven by Microsoft (MSFT).

Remember: Apple may change the way we think, but Microsoft changes the way we spend. Windows 7 is a solid operating system with lots of great IT-oriented features, including an XP emulation mode, an imperative for skittish IT guys. It also runs fairly well on smaller notebooks (although Envy wasn’t technically a netbook, at least by HP’s emphatic definition, it’s still thin and light) and it has most of Vista’s eye-candy with none of the distrust most users had when they saw Vista’s eye-candy when it first came out.

Harbinger of things to come.

There are three forces at work here. First, there is the IT shop. They haven’t upgraded their machines since XP. XP was, at best, 2001 technology and by 2006 over 400 million desktops running the OS. Assuming that even half of those were paid XP seats at major corporations, and you understand that this monster would not just roll over and die. It costs money to upgrade — money companies did not have in late 2007 through all of 2008. Now, with a bit of a loosening in the credit markets, IT departments are going to be upgrading en masse, causing a surge in PC sales and sales of attendant products like drives, memory, and monitors.

Second, consumers are just about done with netbooks. This is an unpopular opinion, I know, but as evidenced by the Envy, the underpowered netbook will be replaced by a more powerful, slightly more expensive mid-tier model that will appeal to everyone, businesses included. Instead of a 15-inch Dell monster, road warriors will carry lighter Windows 7 machines with low-voltage but highly optimized components. Netbook advocates cite cloud storage and a lightweight OS, but when Internet Explorer takes forty seconds to load GMail because you’re running a single core Atom, you’re going to have upset customers. It’s getting harder and harder to go from a peppy computer to a slow one simply because the difference in speed is so staggering. The netbook will remain but it won’t be anybody’s every day computer.

Finally, it’s time for an gamer upgrade. The holidays are upon us, there are no new consoles to buy, and a new cohort of PC gamers is appearing: kids who grew up on powerful consoles like the XBox 360 and the PS2/PS3 family, kids who started gaming perhaps at age 10 and are now 16 or so, who are looking for a bit more power. Windows 7 will give them that slight perceived boost and, since it will come with new machines, it will increase the install base by accretion.

As much as we slobber all over Apple, Microsoft makes the world go around. Google (GOOG) or no Google, the desktop belongs to Redmond and Windows 7 is one of the building blocks of a strong future economy. Here’s hoping they can maintain their Office hegemony but even if they don’t, there’s always Google Wave.

Original post

Comments

[Roger Knights:]

Apple missed a great chance to grab major market share (and unending revenues from new buyers going forward) when it failed to cut Mac prices during MSFT's vulnerable Vista period. Apple had lots of cash in the bank and would not have suffered from reduced margins. If anything, it would have more than made up for lower margins with higher volume. Apple's recent cuts are too little too late. It's doing well, but it could have done insanely great and have twice the market share it now enjoys. It won't get such a chance again.

Oct 04 12:53 PM

[THofler:]

Thanks for article John.

Do you have any investment recommendations related to Win7? Microsoft has thrown some cold water on OS releases in the past by saying that most enterprises have OS subscriptions whose cash flows don't vary much with new releases. Any thoughts?

Oct 04 02:02 PM

[Dialectical...:]

You could be right. But Apple is very protective of its brand identity and never wants to be seen as just another computer maker. It wants to maintain its premium brand image. High margins have always been their mantra. This strategy has survived longer than I thought would be possible in tech. So again, I think your point may be correct, but I'm not sure they'd change anything if they could go back and do it over again. They just don't think that way. And as a shareholder, as long as they keep cranking on the revenue side, I won't second guess their game plan.


On Oct 04 12:53 PM Roger Knights wrote:

> Apple missed a great chance to grab major market share (and unending
> revenues from new buyers going forward) when it failed to cut Mac
> prices during MSFT's vulnerable Vista period. Apple had lots of cash
> in the bank and would not have suffered from reduced margins. If
> anything, it would have more than made up for lower margins with
> higher volume. Apple's recent cuts are too little too late. It's
> doing well, but it could have done insanely great and have twice
> the market share it now enjoys. It won't get such a chance again.

Oct 04 02:29 PM

[Gigem77:]

IT shops won't rush to v7 until the second service pack is released and possibly not then. Microsoft has a history of writing bloated, buggy code with unpleasant surprises for the first round of upgraders. The first step will be to setup a lab environment and test every app for compatibility and to find the bugs.
Company budgets are in recession mode and not likely to upgrade unless the new version gives a clear cut advantage.

And where is the loosening in the credit markets? That is quite a stretch. Read something by Meredith Whitney and get back to us.

Oct 04 03:59 PM

[ebworthen:]

Windows 7 Home version DOES NOT have XP emulation mode, a serious blunder for Microsoft. They will now have the average retail customer pissed off because their older programs can't work on 7 - DUH!

Apple is selling Snow Leopard OS for $29, a smart move. If Apple decided to release their OS to the open hardware market it could be a Windows killer; Microsoft Office is THE business app., but the Mac version works and plays with the Windows version so no problems there. If Apple concurrently offered a lower priced alternative Mac line with AMD processors and chipsets (ATI graphics), they could take more market share there as well. I'm willing to bet AMD would take the business at a discount.

I'm not cheerleading Apple, I'm a Windows user, but Vista has been a disaster, along with Office 2007, and made me consider switching platforms or going Linux.

If Microsoft were smart, they would be offering full functionality for Windows 7 (XP emulation, etc.) for $29 to anyone who wanted to upgrade. Currently, the trend I see doing I.T. support is a BIG increase in Apple market share, people buying iBooks and iMac all-in-ones that play well with their iPhone and iPods and not looking back.

The gaming market is increasingly console based. Ironically, the XBOX 360 is THE console for formerly PC based games that needed Windows to work. Microsoft is making money there, and with XBOX Live, but reducing dependence on Windows for gaming.

Windows 7 is a good product, but they are following the profit model of ten years ago in a good economy. Oooops!

Oct 04 04:36 PM

[bcncv:]

I think you're partially right, but I don't think the impact will be as large as you're predicting. You're right that there is some pent up demand from companies that haven't upgraded in a few years because of the Vista debacle and IT budgets being cut for the past few years.

However, think of the functionality and utility difference between the last generation of basic computers and this generation of basic computers. There really isn't anything the newer computers can do that the older computers don't do.

So yes, the older computers will get upgraded over time. There will be some pent up demand. But there really won't be a huge rush to replace everything that is already working fine.

Oct 04 08:40 PM

[E Nuff Sed:]

I don't understand why people do not like Vista. It is rock solid, secure as vault. It is complex piece of engineering and you do require a minimum of a dual core machine and 3 GB of Ram. If you have that this is far more secure environment than a Mac.

Oct 04 09:44 PM

[TheSnail:]

What?

Netbooks are great. With their tiny keyboards I can now make 3 times as many errors in the same amount of time as a regular keyboard.

Netbook not for me. (But my demographic is irrelevant.)

Oct 04 09:57 PM

[Tom B:]

Win 7 supposedly gets you back to a Win XP level of performance. I've used XP a lot; that's hardly anything to get excited about. I think IT shops will drive some increased PC buying. And we may see a modest bump from consumers of the "wait another month and get Win7 pre-installed" variety. But who cares? This doesn't magically make MSFT a buy. Or Dell, or Lenovo, or Asus or any of the box makers. Maybe Amazon or anti-virus software vendors would be logical buys, though.

Oct 05 12:30 AM

[ryanclarke:]

Windows 95 was a desktop OS that was stable most of the time and suitable for the home office. Windows XP was a desktop OS which was stable allmost all the time - and suitable for most deployments in large scale business offices demanding both stability and security features not present in 95. The value added by XP justified upgrading. Vista was a flop because XP got the job done 'good nuf' for the business world. When the business world figures out Windows 7 isn't much better (or different) than XP in security and stability - they will figure out they can get an OS for FREE called LINUX and use Google Docs for FREE and save a bundle in the process. Microsoft is a dying company because they are not innovating the NEW technologies people want. An operating system is not a car - GM found out the hard way coming out with a new marketing campaign for the same car with different body molding doesn't work after a few years - Microsoft is going to find out the hard way spending tons of marketing money on a product that doesn't add value to the user computing experience ... isn't very profitable.

Oct 05 01:27 AM

[Kris Tuttle:]

I think you're right about the new mobile computer.

Netbook form factor + laptop power = nice device, nice price.

Combines best of both worlds, you can see the popularity in the stores now.

Oct 05 08:27 AM

[Value Added:]

The quick answer to the title of this article is: "Don't count on it." Managers will be hard-pressed to sell corporate wide upgrades based on ROI. Furthermore, Windows 7 does not seem to solve any outstanding problems. True, it may prove popular in the gaming community - a market in which the slightest edge is important regardless of cost - but the IT market is more practical.

Oct 05 08:39 AM

[famos:]

Dear John Biggs,

I like your optimism - but, as all the previous comments suggest, Windows 7 isn't going to save the world or even Microsoft. I agree with the commentators, Microsoft will need a desired new innovation to have any postive impact on a tired company with tired customers.

Oct 05 08:57 AM

[buoy:]

They talked-up Vista in the beginning also.

Oct 05 09:26 AM

[Hephasteus:]

IT doesn't get new budgets in american corporations until march and april of 2010.

Oct 05 09:31 AM

[John Bowman:]

Many PC magazines are currently giving a thumbs up on Windows 7. I know some geeks who have tested the Beta version for months and they really like it. Windows 7 is XP with some serious security features and some features that are cool but not that necessary. It's not bloated like Vista.

Will it help the PC industry? I would say definitely "Yes" if we weren't in the middle of the worst slump in nearly a century.

However, it's amazing what you can get today compared to 7 years ago when XP was introduced. This has always been true with ever improving tecgbology. But a basic unit today is more than enough for most applications, both personal and corporate. And it's totally affordable.

The wild card is if Microsoft completely stops supporting XP. I am not sure if this such a big issue. But if they decide to do this, it could convince many potential buyers to swing to a new purchase with Windows 7.

Oct 05 09:49 AM

[John Bowman:]

I should have checked my spelling..it's technology

Oct 05 09:51 AM

[sunnsea:]

Your article sounds like a plant by Microsoft. If 7 can't emulate the er or recognize XP, Vista, etc., forget it.

Oct 05 09:58 AM

[Kevin_T:]

Rather than being a big impetus to upgrade, I think Windows 7 is more likely to just not be as much a deterrent as Vista was.

I am still using XP (and Linux) on my machines and will likely not change any time soon. That is because I have some simulation programs I need that would cost many thousands of dollars to upgrade, these older applications likely will not run on Win 7.

I suspect my situation is not unique for many businesses and individuals. Therefore, after an intitial flurry from those holding out until Win 7, I don't expect the new OS to be a big driver of upgrade. Lack of XP simulation mode on Win 7 home versions is likely to further dampen enthusiasm for many.

Oct 05 10:37 AM

[Ivan Johnson:]

Last I checked, the upgrade path from XP (pro) to 7 is tortuous. One has to back up all data, install 7, and then re-install all your applications. This is a crap shoot at best.

Or a full-time employment act for MS IT departments!

Have fun with the late night coffee and Ding-Dongs guys. Your support line will be ringing constantly.

Oct 05 10:57 AM

[WesAttaway:]

I have been in the computer consulting business for a long time and have to agree with an earlier comment asking why everyone bashes Vista. It is rock solid and runs great with the right hardware. It got off to a bad start because most early hardware was underpowered.

Back to the point, I have a number of customers waiting for Win7 and expect to be pretty busy moving them from XP (and even a few from Win2000). Also, a few will move from Vista.

The question of XP compatibility is overblown. Most mainstream software has been modified to work with Vista. Also, it is rare to find any hardware that does not have Vista drivers. In my opinion, IT departments already have experience with Vista and Win7 and a gradual conversion will proceed without a lot of fanfare. I don't have a single customer that "hates" Vista once they get used to the different look and feel.

Other than a few timid souls and parroting naysayers there is no legitimate reason for most businesses or individuals to be afraid of Win7. Vista and Win7 are clearly better systems than XP and are the way to go for all but a few specialized situations.

What will this mean for overall IT spending? I think it will be a boost but probably not something that will cause eye-popping upside bombshells. I would look for a gradual but consistent upward push due to the new OS.

Oct 05 11:42 AM

[Mark in CA:]

Then, on the other hand, recall that recently the Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory, the U.S. Department of Energy's oldest physics lab, decided not to upgrade its Windows XP computers to the new Windows 7 operating system. They've decided to wait until after the issuance of the first service pack for that OS, which would probably be more than a year out from the release of Win 7.

59.3% of the 1,100 IT administrators that responded to a July survey by management tools vendor ScriptLogic said they have no plans to deploy Windows 7. 42.7% of survey respondents said time and resources required to implement a new OS were the biggest barriers to deployment, while 39.1% cited application compatibility as the biggest hurdle.

34% of those surveyed said they would likely deploy Windows 7 by the end of 2010, while just 5.4% said they would move to the OS right after it debuts on Oct. 22nd.

Oct 05 11:57 AM

[33Nick:]

If I had a dime for every time a new Windows was supposed to rekindle the industry and truly be the "best" one yet, I would be rich. I don't see Windows 7 making much of a dent. Unlike the Apple switch to Unix, Windows 7 is yet another Windows on top of Windows.

IT spending will go up a bit because most of the front IT infrastructure is tied to Windows. As new computers need to be bought, they will come with Windows 7, as was the case for XP. Not too many shops will rush to upgrade to 7.

The next Windows would need to be truly innovative to rekindle an industry that is more interested than ever on ROI and allocating budget to more important projects than OSs. Companies, like investors are skittish with investments, rightfully so. Maybe the next Windows could be like what Apple did with OSx? It would be a welcome upgrade to finally have a worthy, trusty, secured and finally robust Windows. That would be a revolutionary step forward.

Like most people, I got burned too many times with Microsoft to even look at SP1, 2 and 3. Microsoft knows we won't bother with SP1, so it will rush out SP2. Sorry, been there, seen that.

Oct 05 12:07 PM

[jack dee:]

Win 7 gets good reviews from everyone that uses it.

A clean install from vista is painless just stick in the dvd and windows takes care of everything

I formatted my old dell laptop, installed win 7 and now it runs better than the day I purchased it.

In fact I have already moved 3 out of 4 my home machines to win7

So , will it move the dial, not a lot. But then that was never expected.
it is baked in, we all know that win7 will sell hundreds of millions of copies and that 3 years from now we will all be talking about Microsofts new OS, and of course apple fans will still talk trash and be ignored by the vast vast majority of the world.

Oct 05 12:11 PM

[Depressedal...:]

Most of all the opinions are consistent with one fact! That fact is the majority of Windows/Vista users have had it up to their wazoo with the arrogance, bloat, inflated promises (but never deliver!), security that does nothing to safeguard against hackers, bots, etc! Its security has more holes than "swiss cheese." More and more people don't mind the "higher end prices of Apple computers" because of its security! More and more people are discovering the benefits of BOTH security and great savings of "open source" of Linux. For those who do NOT know about Linux (the best kept secret, but the cat is coming out of the bag!); check You Tube and enter Ubuntu, Fedora, or Mandriva! Ya, MIcrosoft has the majority market for now, but security equals time and time equals money BOTH Apple and Linux can provide that, especially Linux! The only thing that these two are deficient is in "gaming!" Apple has/uses parallels and Linux can use BOTH parallels and Crossover to use Microsoft Office as well as for gaming! When people get disgusted with the products of Microsoft, they look for products that offer security and ease of use....Enter Linux and enter Apple!

Oct 05 12:31 PM

[rajsekar:]

Why would you give Windows 7 a big thumps up when it's an extension of Vista? Many vendors like Dell and Lenovo are smarter to launch their new laptops on XP rather than Win7. All analysts are expecting a big turnaround for Microsoft with Win7 release, especially corporate IT. Anyone who has been testing or using Win7, including me, didn't find any big difference with Win7 performance or features. Users who knew to work around Vista annoyances still applied the same changes to Win7. Win7 is technically a Service Pack 3 for Vista and nothing more. MSFT will not see much sales bounce with Win7 because corporate users are pretty happy with WinXP. Poor ignorant home users will shell out $100 to buy a Service Pack for their Vista OS. Same applies to home users who purchased Snow Leopard OS, which is a service pack for Leopard MacOS.

Oct 05 01:51 PM

[Mad Hedge F...:]

vda You may not be aware of this, but Microsoft (MSFT) is about to hit you with a massive marketing effort to buy its new Windows 7 operating system, which will be officially released on October 22. I have been an early adopter of technology for most of my life, and have been doing my own tech support for 25 years (remember Evelyn?) Do yourself a huge favor and skip it. A number of beta testers have told me that this is the upgrade from Hell. Windows 7 doesn’t explode in your face when you first turn it on, but it comes close to it. If you have the 32 bit version of Vista, which most of you do, then you will only be able to install the 32 bit version of Windows 7, unless you want to go through a tortuous custom install. I shudder at the prospect of hunting down my lost original installation disks, web addresses of download sites, and long forgotten product keys. That defeats the purpose of the upgrade right there, as the 64 bit system was the main oomph behind the new version, enabling you to use more than 3 gb of memory at once. You will need 20 gigs of free disk space for the upgrade, which will put it out of reach of many laptops. If you do somehow get the 64 bit version installed, then many of your peripherals won’t work. If you are one of millions who were too terrified to take on Vista and are still using the antiquated XP operating system, forget it. There is no upgrade. Better to save yourself $120, and wait a year until you buy a new PC with Windows 7 preinstalled on it, with enough extra RAM to take full advantage of its real power. That gives Mr. Softy another year to debug it and come up with a product that really works.

Oct 05 02:12 PM

[jack dee:]

Sad to see you call yourself an "early adopter" and have not even tried win 7.

You are basing your entire post on what a "number of beta testers " told you. Reads to me that you just want to spread some FUD. As to 20 gigs putting it out of the reach of many laptops ? what decade are you living in? It would be hard to find a laptop produced in the last 5 years without 40 gigs.


Win 7 installed on a old DELL 400SC , runs great, zero issues

Win 7 installed on an old self build , runs great needed to download an update for an old sound card.

WIn 7 installed on a Dell insperion 6000, I was about to replace, it runs great, no issues.


On Oct 05 02:12 PM Mad Hedge Fund Trader wrote:

> vda You may not be aware of this, but Microsoft (seekingalpha.com/symbo...)
> is about to hit you with a massive marketing effort to buy its new
> Windows 7 operating system, which will be officially released on
> October 22. I have been an early adopter of technology for most of
> my life, and have been doing my own tech support for 25 years (remember
> Evelyn?) Do yourself a huge favor and skip it. A number of beta testers
> have told me that this is the upgrade from Hell. Windows 7 doesn’t
> explode in your face when you first turn it on, but it comes close
> to it. If you have the 32 bit version of Vista, which most of you
> do, then you will only be able to install the 32 bit version of Windows
> 7, unless you want to go through a tortuous custom install. I shudder
> at the prospect of hunting down my lost original installation disks,
> web addresses of download sites, and long forgotten product keys.
> That defeats the purpose of the upgrade right there, as the 64 bit
> system was the main oomph behind the new version, enabling you to

Oct 05 04:40 PM

[jack dee:]

>>>Win7 is technically a Service Pack 3 for Vista <<<

Yeah sure , tell yourself that if you say it enough times "you" might even begin to believe you are not just making crapola up


On Oct 05 01:51 PM rajsekar wrote:

> Why would you give Windows 7 a big thumps up when it's an extension
> of Vista? Many vendors like Dell and Lenovo are smarter to launch
> their new laptops on XP rather than Win7. All analysts are expecting
> a big turnaround for Microsoft with Win7 release, especially corporate
> IT. Anyone who has been testing or using Win7, including me, didn't
> find any big difference with Win7 performance or features. Users
> who knew to work around Vista annoyances still applied the same changes
> to Win7. Win7 is technically a Service Pack 3 for Vista and nothing
> more. MSFT will not see much sales bounce with Win7 because corporate
> users are pretty happy with WinXP. Poor ignorant home users will
> shell out $100 to buy a Service Pack for their Vista OS. Same applies
> to home users who purchased Snow Leopard OS, which is a service pack
> for Leopard MacOS.

Oct 05 04:45 PM

[SteveJobs:]

Regarding the marketing - if the Windows 7 launch party that's currently circulating you tube is any indication, MS needs to nuke that department into oblivion before they do any more damage to the company.

Oct 05 04:57 PM

[MikeOz:]

I think the article's view of the 3 forces at work is optimistic.

1.The IT shop (if its anything like mine) buy their licences and hardware as a package or on subscription. We replaced our 400 Dell desktops in the first half of 2008 (with new Dells) at the end of a 3 year cycle, and decided (after a Pilot with Vista) to stick with XP. I don't think many IT shops will consider an OS upgrade in the middle of their hardware replacement cycle.
As machines need to be replaced, IT shops will probably go for Win7 because there is will be no real choice apart from Apple (not really in the corporate market) or Linux (not viable if you rely on Windows software). And for the record, the XP emulation in Win7 looks to us a potential headache. We want to be able to run all our software native.
AND we are all cautious now about Win7. Vista caused problems - and when you have hundreds or thousands of users, it's better to stick with what you know until you're certain that the new platform will not cause your company to lose productivity.

2. Consumers - also will go with Win7 when they decide to replace hardware. As another poster pointed out above, upgrading the OS from XP currently looks like a difficult exercise.

3. Serious gamers are not a major segment of the market. They are already running Vista on their 64bit 4Gb or 8Gb Ram quad core machines anyway. Some of these guys will upgrade the OS straight away.

Oct 05 09:23 PM

[rennert:]

It's hard to put out new money on computers when folks are shaking in worries about their job. Just came back from K-Mart the prices are looking very inflationary just like my grocery store isles. Good Will Stores will be the new Walmart and K-Mart.

Oct 05 10:50 PM

[badbernanke:]

I will be a reluctant Win 7 user. When I "upgraded" my computers with 2 Vista 64 machines in early 2009, several "peripheral" devices refused to work due to no drivers -- the scanner on my HP multifunction refused to make the switch and I ended up having to buy a new multifunction. Dictation software was thankfully upgradeable, but no drivers for the hand held dictation devices (that worked with XP and 32 bit Vista) became electronic garbage because the dictation could no longer be downloaded.

Oddly enough, my HP multifunction's scanner does work under Ubuntu although the Brother multifunction I bought to replace the HP does not.

Anyone changing things that work for new OS technology has to be prepared for spending a lot more than a couple hundred bucks for the software.

Oct 06 11:15 AM

[hardymaine:]

A very interesting comment (below) that can also be applied to the smart phone market. With respect to a different technical area, i.e., operating systems, you have illlustrated RIMM's point that it would be foolish to price skim given the importance of gaining and holding lead positon in an expanding industry. Ironically the same folks are involved AAPL and to some extent MSFT.

Oct 04 12:53 PM Roger Knights wrote:

> Apple missed a great chance to grab major market share (and unending
> revenues from new buyers going forward) when it failed to cut Mac
> prices during MSFT's vulnerable Vista period. Apple had lots of cash
> in the bank and would not have suffered from reduced margins. If
> anything, it would have more than made up for lower margins with
> higher volume. Apple's recent cuts are too little too late. It's
> doing well, but it could have done insanely great and have twice
> the market share it now enjoys. It won't get such a chance again.

Oct 06 06:43 PM

[neutrino23:]

Just anecdotal, but I've visited a number of large companies and national labs on business over the last few months and not one of them has shown any enthusiasm for using W7. I think they will gradually adopt it, but it will not be a adoption rate.

Regarding some of the earlier posts, I will suggest that Apple products are not as expensive as suggested. If you are a student then in the summer season you can buy a Mac at the education discount with a $200 rebate credited towards the price of an iPod. Many would choose to get the MacBook and iPod for roughly $900 vs. an iPod at list plus a cheap PC for roughly $700, not to mention the additional expenses for anti-virus software.

Oct 07 02:02 AM

[kiers:]

amen to that. I am a REGRETFUL owner of an ASUS EEE(w) PC.
it hurts. it hurts BADLY.

glitchy SSD drive. Atom processor can't breathe and walk at the same time.

amen.

Oct 07 02:28 PM