Alf-Helge Aarskog - Chief Executive Officer
Ivan Vindheim - Chief Financial Officer
Marius Gaard - Carnegie
Marine Harvest Asa (MNHVF.PK) Q2 2013 Earnings Conference Call August 21, 2013 2:00 AM ET
Good morning and welcome to the presentation of the second quarter 2013 for Marine Harvest. To present today, I have with me the CFO, Ivan Vindheim and we will try to guide you through the numbers and events in the second quarter.
I think this quarter, if you look isolated at this quarter, it really proves the strength in the salmon market. You know, that the supply is slightly down, if you compare to the second quarter in 2012, the supply is down in the area of 2% but the price is up 50%. The price is also up from the first quarter and in that regard this is good news for us and obviously it confirms that we have a product that is in big demand in most markets.
For Marine Harvest, we will be using this call and have been using this year so far to plan for 2014. We will be increasing our biomass, if you remember back to 2011 and the fall of 2011, we took down our smoke supply because we saw 2012 coming on with a huge growth. In 2012, this industry had 22% supply growth. Now, we are seeing that the market can take more fish and we are ramping up our production that by 55,000 tons, so quite a bit.
In terms of changing the business that’s something we are working with everyday for the better and in the European Union with value added products, we are closing down 5 factories in the period from now on and until first quarter of 2014. And we have also decided to close down our smoking operation in Chile, this restructure and to improve the profitability in the business.
We did convertible bond in this quarter at €350 million and we have reinstated quarterly dividends this time at NOK 0.05. And we will come more back to that later.
Just a quick look on the key financial items, if you see the income here, it’s up by close to – it’s up to NOK 440 million from the second quarter in 2012 despite selling 20,000 ton less fish still an indication on the good price achievement in this quarter.
The operational EBIT ended at NOK 901 million up from NOK 231 million. And if you look at underlying earnings per share here, we earned or the earnings were at 0.15 up from 0.03 in 2012. We will come back to the operating unit as we go along.
This graph really shows the development in the market and the market prices from 2007. If you look towards 2013 and when we analyze this, we have never seen a quarter with higher prices than the second quarter of 2013 in Europe that is. We have also see that the prices are moving up in Americas both in – on C trim in Miami and also on HOG equivalents in Seattle.
So it shows that it is a global market for salmon but obviously there will be some time delays when you supply a lot more fish into, for example, the American market as we did in 2012. With over time it correlates.
In terms of price achievement, this quarter was not especially good for Marine Harvest, we fairly a solid contract position, in Norway we have 40% contract share in this quarter, in Scotland its normally high contract share, we are working there very closely with industrial or -- not industrial but directly with retail chains and have a more longer view on our relationship.
So it’s not a normal to have a high contract share there, so 58% is almost where it should be in the Scottish operation and then very low contract share in Canada. Another issue that we have been working hard on in Norway and had challenges with this winter wounds on the fish and you can see the superior share here and Norway is down to 83% also taking down the price achievement in the quarter. This issue is solved now and at the moment we are harvesting fish in Norway also at quality level we expect. Quality in Scotland is very good, and in Canada also improved over earlier quarters and years.
Let’s then go into the different business unit and we will start with the largest one first, the Norwegian operation, we are obviously if you follow the waterfall here, you will see that the price is – what explains the good result. Volume is somewhat down. Feed cost in Norway is up that is a combination of both higher feed conversation rate and higher feed raw material prices on the fish harvested in this quarter.
And then, you know, with volume being lower also the cost is higher, so the cost performance in Norway, we – on the volume we see here is maybe not as good as expected. And we will go come back to the regions there later on.
In terms of, again, I don’t think I need to go into that but on the price achievement again, the contract share, 40% contract share have an impact on the Norwegian business and the earnings.
And here into that as you can see in Q2 40% contract share, this is up for so far Q3 and then we are papering a little bit in Q4 and into Q1 in 2014, the contract share goes down. As you know, we will always be working with contracts in our portfolio and in some periods, we will make money on that and in some periods we will lose but to stabilize and grow this industry for the future, its needed to do this. I think also we are surprised by the strong market that has continued into Q3 and its not over yet but so far it looks very strong also as we speak today in the third quarter.
In terms of the different regions in Norway, here we will see quite a wide performance gap between the regions. And to be honest, this is surprising to me. Not that the region north is the best one that we would expect it has had good cost improvement quite well-positioned also in the marketplace. But, what we see is that region south is performing at more than NOK 13 per kilo that’s new. It’s a PD region, it’s a challenging operation. What we see here is that S0, the so small, that the harvest at the first half of the year is performing better than what on the S1s. We will not expect in region south the same good result going forward this year.
On the other hand, we expect the region mid to come with a much better result. The region mid is really the big disappointment in this quarter, if you look at our operations. And the explanation behind that is that we have been harvesting fish big PD or the HOG PD in 2012, high proportion of down grades and very low volume. We harvested only 8000 ton in region mid normal for us it’s in the range of 14,000, 15,000 ton per quarter in a region around (inaudible). Other than that the Norwegian operation is performing fairly well.
Over to something that is for me impressive, is Scotland. Scotland is outperforming Norway in model despite higher contract share and also if you look at the quality of the fish delivered here, its excellent.
In addition to that we see good biological performance very good feed conversion rates, they are almost offsetting the increased feed prices on the fish in this quarter by improving the feed conversion rate. And all in all, I think our business unit that has worked very, very hard coming from a challenging climate in 2012 with AGD. And so far this year, we have been able to stay out of AGD business or this disease and this as really boosted the results.
In terms of Canada, this has been a region where we had our challenges, we have done restructuring of that operation. We are using the best sites, we have actually shut down quite a few sites with – that had an issue or had issue with (inaudible) which I have spoken of before. And it shows a very good result. And stating that we don’t – do not expect this to continue for the remainder of the year, we expect good performance in terms of less downgraded fish going forward but volumes will come down in Q3 and Q4. So that said, but on the other hand, the performance that has really improved over time.
In terms of the Chilean operation, we did not harvest fish in Chile in the second quarter. In Chile, short-term, medium-term, it’s a very challenging place to grow salmon. And that’s a fact. However, we believe that its possible to also by working together with other producers change Chile into a good salmon farming region for the future. This is going to take a lot of hard work and tough decisions and you know its right now the majority of the salmon producers globally actually is now formed an organization called GSI, where they are working hard together on biosecurity issues especially and especially on sea lice to share best practice between both regions and companies in this area.
With that and with tough decisions in Chile, Chile can come back and be a sustainable producer. But, it will not be easy and its going to take time. We are struggling currently in Chile with biological performance but hopefully we can turn this around. What we have done in Chile in this quarter is to close down our smoking operation, this has been loss making for us and we have a smoking operation in the U.S. supplying to U.S. market which is – in fact is supplying the products we need to U.S. We have actually expanded the (death trap) in mainland, it’s a natural thing to do to close down our operations in Chile.
Two other small units in Marine Harvest on the farming side, island its organic operation, high contract coverage 93%, so mostly on contracts, have a margin at NOK 7 per kilo decent but not fantastic. In Faroe Islands, you can see the other side of the coin, organic contract coverage on to the spot market and above NOK 16 per kilo in margin. So both units performing fairly well, (join) island, even if it’s a small operation, we have struggled with AGD also this year. So its not completely solved.
On to unit that has been challenged from Marine Harvest that I will say actually performance quite well in this quarter. If you remember in the second quarter, absolutely the highest spot prices, the highest salmon prices in any quarter and still they are breaking even. That is a good job.
So, we see progress in our operations in the value added side in Europe, its challenging to be in that segment now. Marine Harvest has decided that we will be in number one in three segments, in fish feed and in fish farming and in the value added side. And by restructuring this operation, fish were good in the marketplace, I think it will be a very good heads in the future. And it will develop this operation or this company to total other level that what we see today.
Yeah, you see the numbers obviously the price is up and the raw material price is up on the cost side, other than that not big changes but some improvement in the cost side, on other cost, as you can see actually offsetting the result.
Then just a up take on the Morpol situation, we expect clearance from the competition authorities in EU in Q3, we filed for the EU commission on the 9th of August and this is now in process. We have been through this before but Morpol will be a significant change into the value added side for Marine Harvest, it really will be – it has been the most sufficient producer in the smoke segment for years and will bring us both competence and capacity.
In terms of farming activities, we know that they have 7000 ton of foreign capacity in Norway – in the Nord region in (Trøndelag) where we are not being placed. That comes well in hand. At the same time, that also operation in Scotland, (inaudible) that fits well with our operation. This is an increase in size of Marine Harvest dramatically and we are – will be 4000 more employees up from 6400 to going beyond 10,000 of that is effort.
Then just also an update on the feed project, as stated earlier, this is one part of our strategy and maybe to me the most exciting one because its brand new, this we have never done this before. And its moving on in the right direction. We are constructing a facility in Bjung, I think it’s the first brand new feed plant in some 20 years. There the feed expansion had only been add-ons in all the plants.
This is on-time, in terms of the expenditure, its on budget, we recruited management for the operation. We have got very qualified people both in terms of formulation, in terms of purchasing of raw materials and will be a lean organization producing basically two types of feed for S 0s and S 1s and the big sizes. And it will be both delivery directly on to their own plants. This operation is to run by L&G and as you can see wind power, in terms of environmental footprint no one can compete. We also think that in terms of efficiency no one can compete.
So supposed to be and still on track for completion, I think in fact, we will start delivering in 1st of July 2014. And its going to be very exciting story. And really we see now, we are gaining knowledge that we didn’t have before in terms of raw materials and the usage of raw materials and also we are able to go further into the diets we are buying from the other producers than we have ever done before.
So, and the biggest cost component in any operation in fish farming, fish feed, we are gaining knowledge that can be very, very useful for better improvement in the farming side going forward.
That was quick update on the operations, now, we will go more detail into the financial side and Ivan is much, much better on numbers than I’m. So Ivan, the floor is yours.
Thank you, Alf-Helge, and good morning everybody.
As usual we start with P&L, the second quarter saw us make up to a number of NOK 4.4 billion that’s up from NOK 4.0 billion, the same quarter last year. Volumes are down by 20% from 99,000 tons to 79,000 tons. So, despite that we have grown the revenues and the reason is that as Alf-Helge mentioned sometimes already, the high prices.
Profit wise, we made an operational EBIT of NOK 901 million this quarter compared to NOK 231 million for the same quarter last year. Further down in the P&L, unrealized gains of salmon derivatives and unrealized contract provisions negative 31 and negative 81 respectively. There is no cash flow related to those items. It’s (mark-to-market) declaration.
We had a positive adjustment of NOK 139 million as a result of the price hike, we saw in the second quarter compared to the end of the first quarter. We have made provisions for restructuring of our business in Europe, we are closing down five factories. We are going down from 13 to 8 factories and provided approximately NOK 202 million in that regard. In addition, we are closing down our smoke house in Chile for salmon and provided for NOK 36 million related to that they closed down.
In addition, we lost the first round of the arbitration case we have against SSA and for prudent sake, we have provided for NOK 74 million. This faces appeal and our target is definitely to win the next round. And we are surprised by the sentence.
So, further down, income from associated components that is mainly Nova Sea. Nova Sea has had another good quarter, the underlying profit, this is net profit after-tax and our share 48% as the underlying profit is NOK 12.8 per kilo EBIT and on 3.7000 tons. You can find it in the appendix.
And net financial items, negative NOK 365 million of which 150 million is net interest expenses. The rest is FX defect mark-to-market valuation of convertible bond et cetera. You find all the details in note 8 in the financial report.
Underlying EPS for the quarter 0.15 year-to-date, we have (22).
So much about the P&L, then over to balance sheet. So our financial position (inaudible), the balance sheet amounts to approximately NOK 26 billion at the end of the second quarter. This is significantly up compared to the corresponding quarter last year approximately NOK 4.5 billion, but 1.7 is related to Morpol. We have not consolidated Morpol before we have positive clearance from the EU, of course, but we have NOK 1.7 billion as shares in our balance sheet. NOK 1.1 billion is related to IFRS adjustments of biomass receivables are up as a result of higher prices compared to the same quarter last year, in addition, we are building feed factory. So we have an extensive CapEx program which has an effect obviously on our balance sheet.
Net interest paying debt or equity is below the target of 50%, equity ratio is 47%, if you adjust for Morpol, its actually above 50%. So, we are well-positioned for going forward at this.
Then over to the cash flow, we started at NOK 6.3 billion in net interest rate debt when we began this quarter and we closed at NOK 5.857 billion. Cash from operation NOK 1.1 billion, maybe what somewhat lower than what we had expected, the reason why is that the biomass fee is increasing it has been a challenging year so far biological ways and this has led to low volumes as our target already mentioned here. And the cost per kilo is increasing. We are hoping that the increase what we see now as we speak will take that down again at least the season effect will be positive. Net CapEx NOK 348 million.
Another item, I think I should mention particularly this quarter is the effect on the convertible bond. The issue on the convertible bond you post a book fee, the equity element of it as a non-interest bearing debt. And the numbers NOK 387 million and you find it under the items, you see its NOK 437 million here.
Cash flow guidance, ER ramping our production from 335,000 tons this year to 390,000 next year, we want to capitalize on a good market. This cost cash, so the biomass at the end of the second quarter was 201,000 tons live weight and if you do the math you will see that they have to increase that amount substantially, so we are investing approximately NOK 1 billion in working capital in the second half of this year.
In addition, we have an extensive CapEx program this year as already mentioned. The number as it stands NOK 1.55 billion.
We are changing our balance sheet, the run rate for interest expenses that’s excluding amortization is NOK (354) million going forward, if we include Morpol. Therefore 2013, full year is NOK 430 million. We call that we issued our convertible bond in the second quarter which was very (feeble) in terms of interest 2.375%.
In addition, improved ratio also improved our interest rates. The Board of Directors has proposed a dividend of NOK 0.05 dividend per share. This we will pay our as soon as possible and the tax effect will be in the third quarter. The number is, if you round it up NOK 190 million, NOK 187 million to be precise.
So much about the financial figures then over to supply and demand. As usual we started the supply development in the second quarter 2013. We are at where we ended – in the upper end of what we forecasted for last quarter. In addition, you seen frozen volumes from Chile. So the supply is actually higher than what we expected and the same goes for prices. That means that the underlying demand is very strong.
If you look at the prices, we have had record high prices in Europe this second quarter, (inaudible) 45.5 that’s up 54% compared to the second quarter last year. We also see impressive rebounds in America – in North America Seattle HOG, the prices was NOK 44 per kilo, up 40% in the second quarter year-over-year.
In Chile, this is C trim but if we translated to HOG equivalence, the price was NOK 39 per kilo in Miami. And you adjust for a transportation cost, it was NOK 34 per kilo and that’s also an impressive increase from what we sold last year, approximately 40%. So, the prices or have been very good and so far in the third quarter, they have been very good as well and as you will all know.
Then over to demand, the underlying demand has been impressive so far this year. At least that’s our view and that goes both for Europe and America. And we can see it from the table that the Russia is down but if you adjust for growth from Chile and Canada, the consumption actually is so much up. For Japan, it’s down by 22% but that’ s inline with our expectations. Last year they had the effect of the Tsunami and addition; we have seen the strength of the Yen. So, this is, I guess normalization of the trade to Japan.
So, to sum up, the demand so far this year has been incredibly good.
Then over to supply outlook and no major changes since last time I spoke, somewhat down in Norway, we’ve taken it down by 15% Chile more or less flat and somewhat increase for the other regions but in total, more or less flat. We also expect a sequential increase in supplies this year when we go into the third quarter and fourth quarter. Normally that put some pressure on the price of course but this time, we saw that the really high level and normally we would have seen a drop already now and we haven’t.
So, maybe this is the year for further surprise, I don't know, but the volumes are expected to increase for the rest of the year. We did (not) guide for 2014, yes, but, you are all well summarized with the consensus and the supply outlook for 2014 also looks favorable. So, we are positive.
Then over to our own volume guidance and we have taking it down from 350,000 tons to 335,000 tons and mainly in Norway. 11,000 tons is Norway, at the same time, they all ramping up our production. We have increased our smokes inputs and we are, according to our plans back on track in 2013 on a, sorry 2014 on 390,000 tons. And this year, we had an extensive CapEx program and we are all investing heavily in working capital. So adjusted for that next year and high volumes and the good market gives an attractive basis for future of net cash flow.
Then over to outlook. I will leave the floor to Alf-Helge, again. Thank you.
Yes. In terms of strategy, already been into it somewhat but we are moving ahead with our feed development in Mid-Norway. We will focus on growing our capacity in terms of farming in two regions in Norway and Chile. And obviously, last but not least, it’s important for us now to get the successful integration of Morpol when this is approved as expected in -- of course, the end of the third quarter and strengthen our downstream operations. That is the three legs we will have in our business.
In terms of future volumes, Ivan have just hinted, we are increasing our capacity and maybe our one of the only company that actually are in position to do that, taking up the harvest volumes with 55,000 ton on a global scale in 2014. And also in 2014, the feed plan kicks in here in the second half with significant capacity. We aim at 60% in the first factory -- 60% of our own need, produced in our own in the first factory in Norway.
We will be looking obviously not stock but we will be looking for the sites for the second factory at a early stage. So, this is not, we’ve not taken a decision yet to go on with one market factory but we will looking at sites and the first will see, how successful we are there, when this is finished next year.
Then the dividend, we’ve been through, it’s NOK 0.05 per share, we distributed as soon as possible in this quarter. And in terms of the market going forward, we see a strong market. I think we’ll see a seasonal fluctuation in the fall that we normally do. But for 2014, it’s speaks well as far as we can see with another strong year market for salmon. And I think that’s underlined by the forward prices for 2014 being 35 these days.
Also in 2014, obviously, we’re doing major investments this year, the investment level will come down to a more normalized level in 2014, which supposes for a strong cash flow in that year.
I think with that, we’ll end the presentation for the second quarter and open up for questions. So, if Ivan, if you can come up here, that would be fantastic and we will just, if you just state your name and employer, we will try to answer the best we can.
Thank you. This level that we also should expect to be a normal quarter in the payment level. And secondly, you are concluding that investments are going to be significantly lower from next year. Also having impact on dividend capacity of course but provided that you will go for a second feed factory, can you say anything about CapEx on that factory and where you are planning to locate it?
(inaudible) this quarter. It was kind of project from last quarter. Altogether NOK 0.15, underlying EPS so far this year is NOK 0.23, so i.e., 55% of that. And net cash flow per share so for this year NOK 0.15, i.e., 100%. So, the dividend distribution at least in my mind so far has been good. But, we do not forecast on future dividends but higher net cash flow bodes well for the future decisions from the Board of Directors.
So, for the Board of Directors of Marine Harvest dividend distribution is important. So, but you have to balance it with the current operations and investments and this year has been demanding but as I have mentioned, the numbers again, but we are investing heavily in the working capital as we speak, an expensive CapEx program. But, next year, those two items will go substantially down and yes, the rest of the math you can do yourself.
I can answer that one. I obviously, Ivan has indirectly answered it. We are building biomass this year for a billion and the feed factor is coming on. I said, we all will be looking for a second site. But, we will start the first operation first. So the investment we will probably not come until if decided until 2015. Marius?
Marius Gaard - Carnegie
Marius Gaard, Carnegie. I have three questions. Last time we met, we just talked about U.S. listing, this time don’t care anything, can you what’s the latest status on that one.
Second one, the increase in 2014, how much is in Norway? And also, last night before that (Marine House Harvest) was picked on the enhanced control status in Russia, can you just try to explain what that means?
And finally, you are increasing the working capital expectation from 750 to 900 to 1200 this year. Can you explain what has happened since last time we met?
Question were U.S. listing, we have not been specific on the U.S. listing in this presentation, (RAMS) to be listed in the first quarter of 2014.
The next one was where the increase is in terms of what reason we will increase our production. We have not guided specifically on that and we will not do that before the third quarter but its – it’s a share between Norway and a little bit in Chile.
Then the third question, was the enhanced monitoring from the Russian Food Authorities on one plant in Norway, Eggesbønes in our operation on several other plants in other companies. To not exactly what that is and what that means. At this point talk to actually – give you a good answer on because to me this is new.
But, if you look at it, what they say is that they have found bacteria’s, we have obviously monitoring programs for bacteria’s same as (inaudible) and other customers. And we will take that serious, obviously, they will look into what they are found and see if there is any action we can take, if any to reduce.
So far, it doesn’t seem to have any effect on the volumes or we can still export and mainly we have three – or two other plants also approved from Russia. So, its early days and it’s a good question. But, no consequences so far.
And then the last question was in regards to working capital, repeat that please.
Marius Gaard - Carnegie
You got down on a range, between (1700-1900) last time and now you are saying 1200? What happened?
Yes. There is no secret that our biomass -- the cost level of our biomass has increased during this year. Feed prices are higher than what we forecasted for and in addition, the growth has been good so far. In addition, we also have to finance the high salmon prices through the receivables, sorry, in the finance, but salmon prices through receivables. All else being equal the amount of receivables increases with higher prices. So those – the combination of those two.
(inaudible). A follow up on the volumes, could you say that the regional volume growth for next year partly reflects the reduced volume growth this year, meaning that you are basically are postponing harvest rather than having effect from reduced growth? That’s one question.
Another one relates to the net debt target that will be under review awaiting the consolidation of Morpol, should we basically assume you to follow the same or less before specifically the NOK 15 per kilo target for the farming operations?
And the last question relates to the value added business for next year, you are taking heavy charge now, are you basically taking the costs up from than you expect them to deliver the required returns next year already, or do we have to wait until 2015 for this business to perform as you would expect them to?
First one, first question, Ivan, you can take the second. But, in terms of the regional volume and growth its – this is postponing harvesting, its not – we will not guide on quarterly harvest volumes before the third quarter in the different regions and we are not postponing harvest this year. The fact is that especially Norway feed conversion rate is up, temperature has been very low in the first half of the year, so that is fish that will be produced.
And also harvest weights coming into the third quarter is down because you don’t want to go into the third quarter with the S1 generation as the spring is small because then they will mature. You have time window there, that you want those fish out of the ocean before – really before August starts.
And then if they don’t have the necessary size, they will not be harvested. So I think we will be clear on that.
The net debt target Ivan. I don’t know, if you have comments to that?
Yes. We will revisit that target when we start to consolidate Morpol given our positive clearance from the EU commission, until that target is NOK 15 per kilo. You have to make some adjustments, of course, because its likely that he will bring (inaudible). You also have to allocate some of the net interest rate debt to value added business which is doubling at least. And we also have convertible bond currently in the moment. So that’s also the questions – for the time being or until further notice. And we will come back on this when we more (inaudible). This is when we changed such a strategy, it’s a Board decision there is nothing that we and Alf-Helge have to do.
Last question was on value added and in terms of when to expect effect obviously we make provisions for the cost of the restructuring. So the lay offs and the other cost in terms of the restructuring. And we expect obviously as soon as the restructuring is done that the results starts to come.
More question, I think (inaudible).
(inaudible). The recent election coming of then there is possible change in the government, what would you like to hear from the new ministry of fishery regarding future growth and yeah?
Yes, well, we will work with whoever will win the election. So that is not up to us to speculate on. But, think the important to build this industry for the future in Norway, no matter what government in place is that its – that we have – they take a longer view on this industry that it is predictable over time. It’s a long race and to grow salmon to harvest takes three years. I would ideally see a plan laid out for the next 10 years on how they think around the growth.
And I think on – in terms of growth if the biological indicators are good and all that is working as well and we are able to, to do this business in a good manner. I think maybe a 3% yearly growth on (MIAB) would – where you can see into the future will be good.
Then rather adjusted uplift to market if you are able to develop the market accordingly. It’s much better to take the step by step for many reasons, for the biology, for the sustainability of industry. But also, to be able to develop a market in a smart way.
So that would be my dream speech, if it came through.
If there are no more questions. Then I would just say thank you very much for attending and I wish you back here in October.
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