September Same Store Sales: eBay Continues Growth Trend

We just completed collating our September same-store-sales (SSS) data for all of the channels we support at ChannelAdvisor (search, CSE, marketplaces, etc) and there are a couple of interesting data points to discuss as we exit Q3 and head into Q4.

Overall e-commerce

First, here's the chart that shows the SSS for eBay (EBAY), Amazon (AMZN) and overall e-commerce.

I don't believe comscore has come out with with their data yet on September, so that part of the chart isn't filled in. For overall e-commerce (ChannelAdvisor SSS in the chart) , we saw that dip slightly from 8.7% in August to 7.3% in September. That's a small change and one that we don't think is worrisome.

Marketplaces (eBay and Amazon)

Amazon took a bit of a tick up, increasing from an already heady 53% growth rate to 55%. Historically when there are major new books (Twilight, Harry Potter,etc.) we see a lift on Amazon, so internally we're calling this the Dan Brown September blip.

eBay continued to do well and posted a 5.1% y/y SSS month for Sept on the heels of the surprising August 4.6% upswing. One yellow flag is that we're hearing from sellers that the new eTRS program and SR2 changes to search are very disruptive to their businesses. That went into effect 10/1 so we'll keep a close eye on the October SSS to see if those changes slow/negate many of the Aug/Sept gains. This feedback is anecdotal so far as the changes are < 5 days old and still taking a while to ripple through the ecosystem.

CSE

CSEs are holding steady - up 6.4% y/y for us and performing well. They usually really pop in Q4.

Search

Paid-search SSS were up 5.2% y/y with CPCs rebounding considerably from the year ago period. One interesting observation we've had as the Google/Bing wars have really warmed up and spilled into e-commerce. When you look at a pure SSS share world as we are in this post, Google's real 'enemy' or threat maybe a better word is Amazon. Amazon is on a clear path with their huge share gains to become the 'product search' of the internet. Product-related (retail) searches make up 40% of google's revenue and if Amazon were able to chip away at that, let's just say it wouldn't be good for Google.

Conclusion

September puts an end to Q3 where it appears we saw things rebound for e-commerce in general and definitely eBay specifically is showing another datapoint pointed at a recovery. Is the consumer's wallet freeing up? Are we benefiting from easier y/y comps than we've had in a long time? Yes! Does this mean we'll have a monster Q4? At ChannelAdvisor, we're counseling customers to look for a flat to up 5% Q4 this year and be pleasantly surprised should it end up coming in stronger than that.

We'd love to hear your Q3 thoughts and results with Q4 forecasts in comments.

Disclaimers

Disclaimer: I am long google and amazon. eBay is a minority shareholder in ChannelAdvisor where I am CEO.

This data represents the combination of results from > 3000 online retailers that together represent > $3b in e-commerce via ChannelAdvisor's software.

Our eBay data is not 100% of eBay, we have less international and a different category mix than eBay (e.g. we do not have any autos).

Our Amazon data is primarily what Amazon calls EGM - Electronics and General Merchandise, we have little to no exposure in the media (book/music/video) categories.

All data is ex-travel and groceries.

Comments

[Patricia013:]

I'm so unimpressed with Ebay - its almost impossible to describe! I'll leave it to others. I, too, am hearing the complaints about the new TRS program. One thread on seller central made a big joke about being an A.S.S. "above standard seller" - he added to that "above standard seller helping others learn ebay" - that did it and now I have to wipe all the soda off my monitor! He could at least laugh about it and that made my day. Otherwise, you can find me on my website where sales have recently picked up and been darn good lately ;-)

Oct 05 05:41 PM

[NYM Arts:]

How do we know the Numbers aren't PHONEY ?
Ebay has been caught before....

Oct 06 01:05 PM

[Philip Cohen:]

eBay sales are up? That must be all the pro sellers buying their own stuff—but is eBay getting any FVF therefrom? Users will definately be up again: every unscrupulous auction seller now has 10-20 shill bidding IDs. Thanks Scott, but I'll keep my powder dry until the September quarter's "profit" is announced. I'm putting my money on a further reduction in revenue and a savaging of profits that not even the Ho's Department of Spin will be able to put a smiley face on. The pink-slipping of 400 Germans will make any difference. Actually, it's the Ho's and his fellow idiots' salaries that eBay's board should be thinking about saving ...

Oct 06 02:29 PM

[citizen1:]

I am a frustrated seller and will not put much on Ebay after the holiday season. From what other sellers are saying, they also furious are going to start pulling their stuff to other places especially after the holiday (which is almost upon us). Their practices are terrible and discriminatory. Other businesses enforcing the same rules would probably be investigated for discrimination or unfair practices.

Oct 06 11:16 PM

[fairytrixy:]

There is something seriously wrong wrong wrong. October came in and NO buyers at all, Aug and September were good, very good. I find it hard to believe that with a calendar change people just quit buying. I searched like I was buying and I see BIN items that have been on for months in the 1965-1975 vintage dress catagory, and then switched to auction only items and I was shocked, out of 1300+ listings there were maybe 1-2% that had bids on them. This is a catagory that the auctions have always been hopping in.
Whatever is up sucks, pardon my word choice but that is tame compared to my real feelings about it.
The biggest joke is the Government relations page where they get all happy because the FCC chairman is for Net Neutrality, well after reading his speech I can say that the hypocracy is astounding! Discrimination and double dipping by ISP is what eBay claims they stand up against but they have a practice of Triple dipping if you include paypal, and they have done nothing to boost small business for the army of small business owners they claim to support. No matter how you slice it up if the FCC looked into what eBay is doing with the rating data they collect from buyers that will even leave it I bet they would be fined or shut down due to manipulation to push small sellers out. Go ahead check out ebay's Gov. relations page and then read FCC chairman's speech on the new the FCC.gov web site. It is like some kind of sick joke.

Oct 09 04:07 AM