$2 Royalty Pass Along Is 'Sirius'ly Good Idea 128 comments
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Much has been written about how Sirius’s (SIRI) pass along of the $2 royalty fee will affect customer churn. However, not much has been written on the actual affect on Sirius top and bottom lines. The amount of additional churn that is created by the royalty fee pass along is up for debate and we will only know with time. But we can look at the general financial consequences and come up with a prediction on whether this is a smart move or not. (Assuming this is not a smart move assumes that Mel K and his finance staff are not smart enough to have figured this out already).
Assume that all subscribers are single subscribers and thus for those churned subs the $10.66 ARPU a month is lost. This is conservative given that some churn may result from multiple subscriber plans being disconnected which carry lower average ARPUs. I will also assume that 7 million subscribers will not have to pay for the $2 increase as they are on lifetime subscriptions. (As there is no detail in the 10Q I can not confirm or deny whether this is accurate or conservative.)
The basic math is $2 extra per month for every subscriber that stays and a loss of $10.66 per month for every subscriber that leaves. With, 18,413,435 million subscribers, I assume that 7 million subs are not subject to the charge as lifetime subs are not having the charge passed through.
The change in monthly and yearly revenue at different subscriber retention levels is as follows:
The chart above shows that affected subscriber churn would have to be 16% for this royalty pass through to negatively affect Sirius top line.
At 10% additional churn, Sirius would make roughly $100 million more in revenues than otherwise. More importantly to the company, all of this money falls directly to the bottom line. We won’t know what the level of churn is until the next two quarters are reported. And we have not taken in to account that all new subs will be hit with this fee.
My own opinion is that it will be a lot less than 10% and the royalty pass through will be a boon to both the top and bottom lines. Mel K and his crew probably did the same math and came up with the same conclusion!
This is a 'Sirius'ly good idea for the profitability of the company.
Disclosure: Long SIRI
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This article has 128 comments:
Long SiriusXM
The shorts will be buyin and the longs will be smilin!
About time. :-)
My electric company charges a $10 per month service charge per month on top of my electric bill.
My water company has a minimum usuage fee regardless if I use no water at all.
My garbage company charges a fuel surcharge.
My cable and mobile phone companies charge surcharges.
$2 is nothing if you like the service, but spread out over millions is a windfall for SiriusXM.
The Motley Fool and TheStreet.com won't pick up a good piece of work like this, nor will the sinking ship previously admired and known as The Wall Street Journal. These hack organizations are to busy scrambling for ad and per click revenue to print facts, practically giving away their "so called" premium subscription services to uninformed consumers.
Its time for a change in who the Retail Investor looks to for real news and information on companies that their hard earned dollars are invested in. Promoting authors such as Jeffrey Mettel here is a good start. Keep up the good work and bring us the numbers good or bad.
In a world where we pay ludacris amounts of money for cell phones, cars, gym memberships etc you're going to tell me $2 is the straw that will break the camels back?! Use 411 once on your cell phone and you've already hit that $2 mark. Siri also doesn't lock you into contracts like all these other "providers".
I'm glad that Siri was smart enough to pass this charge onto the consumer to help increase revenue. I am astounded that people who have had this service would ever cancel it, unless they were moving to a new car.
On Oct 08 09:06 AM Siriusly Long wrote:
> I mean really... $2 would make you consider cancelling anything?!
> ?
>
> In a world where we pay ludacris amounts of money for cell phones,
> cars, gym memberships etc you're going to tell me $2 is the straw
> that will break the camels back?! Use 411 once on your cell phone
> and you've already hit that $2 mark. Siri also doesn't lock you into
> contracts like all these other "providers".
>
> I'm glad that Siri was smart enough to pass this charge onto the
> consumer to help increase revenue. I am astounded that people who
> have had this service would ever cancel it, unless they were moving
> to a new car.
fee???
I'm in no way getting rid of my 2 radios, but it's still nice to see that the $2 pass-on has some good financial reasoning behind it.
Great, honest, informing article. Glad to see that you used various inputs so that this gives an unbiased result.
Have to agree with P.Gourley,
"My gas company charges $15 per month service charge per month, regardless if I use gas or not.
My electric company charges a $10 per month service charge per month on top of my electric bill.
My water company has a minimum usuage fee regardless if I use no water at all.
My garbage company charges a fuel surcharge.
My cable and mobile phone companies charge surcharges.
$2 is nothing if you like the service, but spread out over millions is a windfall for SiriusXM.
Keep up the good work Jeff!
I see how this looks good on a balance sheet, but I don't see how it really equates to more profits.
But in reality, the $2 is now being used to offset existing expenses. Sounds good to me.
And who gave my other post a thumbs-down? BOOOO! :(
On Oct 08 10:50 AM R A F wrote:
> This equates to more profits because Sirius XM has been paying these
> royalties all along without being properly reimbursed by the actual
> subscribers - which the company will now be able to do.
On Oct 08 12:31 PM Pell wrote:
> Hey where is jswede, jsmithy and Sir-Doom today?
>
> Word of advice guys ......BUY BUY BUY OR KISS UR SHORT BYE BYE BYE!
On Oct 08 12:41 PM R A F wrote:
> I like your use of the word "is" denoting a singular, instead of
> the word "are" denoting a plural, when referring to jswede/jsmithy/andSIRI...
> Over the past several months, I have noticed that they all use the
> same vernacular, same misspellings, and same negative agenda. Could
> this all be one person in the disguise of multiple ID's? If it looks
> like a duck, walks like a duck, and quacks like a duck ..... it probably
> is a duck!!
Mel is big, Malone, Maffei(spelling), all insiders, and large long time holders have all added cheap shares. Time to take this puppy to the moon.
I would not touch this until it gets lower since we saw this drop from .70 to .51 in 2 weeks
On Oct 08 12:31 PM Pell wrote:
> Hey where is jswede, jsmithy and Sir-Doom today?
>
> Word of advice guys ......BUY BUY BUY OR KISS UR SHORT BYE BYE BYE!
After the 180-day period, shares for the company can be transferred to a sort-of minor league tier known as the Nasdaq Capital Markets. There, shares will trade while the company in question attempts to use another 180 days to raise share prices.
Let's see, I remember not long ago you were pounding the blogs with doom and gloom about SIRI going to be delisted immediately, a catastrophic reverse-split at almost any second and for good measure that SIRI would be bankrupt very soon.
Now you write about after the 180 day grace period the company may be transferred to the minor leagues (NASDAQ Capital Markets). This article was released a little earlier today on another site.
All of this is pure conjecture on your part. Mr. Malone has already publicly stated that he would not let Sirius XM get to the point that it would have to file bankruptcy. He knows the value and potential value of the Sirius XM enterprise.
The 3Q report will show all just how far back this company has come and almost certainly will clear out most of the remaining short positions.
You seem to latch on to whatever negative report is out there and absolutely run with it until proven wrong then wait for the next negative lie to surface so you can start all over again. You must really enjoy doing this to spend so much time on it.
Long SIRI
There are" roughly" 3million subs that have lifetime subscriptions as this limited service has been offered on and off, since as far back as 2006 for sirius satellite radio, not as the combined sirius/xm. So if sirius truly had 7 million lifetime subscribers the company would of gone bankrupt way before the merger.
Anyway at least Jeffery Mettel got the point across.
On Oct 08 03:48 PM between the hedges_ wrote:
> Get ready for some more reports: Citi, BAC, GS, IBM. Could be some
> market moving info.
Insiders don't sell at these prices, even to take profit, unless they don't have confidence in the company.
Siri is going to break the news of the RS and the insiders know this. That's why they are selling.
If it was just one insider selling then I would give it the benefit of the doubt but when you have a slew of insiders selling at the same time then somethings up.
Don't get caught with your pants down.
Mr. Stupid
franky
Oh, and why hasn't Mel come out to counteract the BK studies/polls?
I would think if he cared the slightest about his investors he would have made a comment by now. Maybe there is some truth to BK. Well, the fact is, Mel ain't saying nothing to the contrary. And that's a fact.
Mr. STupid
On Oct 09 03:20 PM loki911 wrote:
> Why in the last 6 months have there been no insider buys all sells
> for 6+ million shares? For the record I just don't like the looks
> of that if news coming out is supposed to be good and the price is
> supposed to pop but I skeptically remain SIRI long and love the service.
Mr. Stupid
On Oct 08 02:02 PM between the hedges_ wrote:
> The truth will be revealed in about a month. We'll get a glimpse
> at the volume of Sky Docks pre-ordered and sold. We'll see those
> huge July and August auto sales numbers factor in. There will be
> some short covering from now until then. When the numbers of q3 come
> out, the shorts still holding their positions will cover, cover,
> and cover.
Mel does not need to make any defence or anouncments. He has Goldman Sachs doing all the manipulation needed to defend the sp.
I agree with you on the insiders dumping. Some of it is bonus. But, they know the rev-split is a done deal. Selling stock rewards that were given at 43 cents is profitable now. So, why would they risk a 20, 30, 40, or even 50 to 1 rev-split? The stigma and shrorting is going to devalue after the split. They know...
You read this wrong: SIRI short interest DECLINED substantially, and is now only 89,294,197 - a DECREASE of 17,158,522 from the previous short interest position of 106,452,719 shares on 9/15.
This indicates a favorable shift in sentiment regarding SIRI among the "pros" who have previously carried substantially higher levels of short positions in the stock.
On Oct 09 11:36 PM SIRI-Doom wrote:
> NEW YORK, Oct 9 (Reuters) - Short interest in U.S. stocks fell in
> late
> September, the Nasdaq and New York Stock Exchange said on Friday,
> suggesting a
> decrease in bearish sentiment among equity investors. COMPANY
> CURRENT PREVIOUS NET CHANGE PCT CHANGE
> ----------------------... ----------------------...
>
> FIVE BIGGEST INCREASES:
>
> Sirius XM Radio (seekingalpha.com/symbo...) 89,294,197
> 106,452,719 -17,158,522 -16.1
To me it looks like the recent SP is a buying opportunity or at least not a time to sell.
Btw, MSFT has almost as many shares shorted as SIRI and probably nobody considers bankruptcy in this case.
As to the R/S, let's assume it will be 1/20 then we would get 11 $ at the day of the split and probably down to 5 $ in a few days bc of selling first and ask questions later and back to 11 $ within another week or so and after that we will go up to around 20/25 $.
My game plan for the R/S is simple, holding my core position and start adding the days after until it reverses.
On Oct 10 12:20 AM R A F wrote:
> Not "FIVE BIGGEST INCREASES"
>
> You read this wrong: SIRI short interest DECLINED substantially,
> and is now only 89,294,197 - a DECREASE of 17,158,522 from the previous
> short interest position of 106,452,719 shares on 9/15.
>
> This indicates a favorable shift in sentiment regarding SIRI among
> the "pros" who have previously carried substantially higher levels
> of short positions in the stock.
>
> On Oct 09 11:36 PM SIRI-Doom wrote:
The reduction in short interest was for the period from 9/15 through 9/30, and the average closing price for SIRI during that interval was .655. The "pros" have been covering short positions they have carried for many months, as seen in the bi-weekly short interest summaries - and they are now paying up, at successively higher prices, to do so. The massive short interest in SIRI was at 181 million shares on 3/31; 158 MM on 4/31; 175MM on 5/29; 194MM on 6/30; 124MM on 8/31; and now 89MM on 9/30. The share price has been rising as short positions have declined, meaning losses are being taken on these positions as "pros" cover to avert additional exposure.
Your speculation about a reverse split - and it's potential ramifications has no factual basis and, in fact, is totally contrary to the known intentions and considerations that have
recently been covered - in depth - on these pages. Your hypothetical premise of a reverse split - ratio and aftermath - is purely fiction at this time; If you choose to believe this, that is your prerogative, but knowledgeable investors are not likely to view this as credible.
On Oct 10 04:46 PM petra wrote:
> RAF, IMHO the short interest declined b/c they were closing the positions
> they opened when the SP was at 75 cents. It makes sense to short
> Siri at 75 and book your profits at 55 and then wait for the run
> up prior to the CC and then do it again, of course with the help
> of your buddies Cramer , MF, WSJ and the bashers around here.<br/>To
> me it looks like the recent SP is a buying opportunity or at least
> not a time to sell.
> Btw, MSFT has almost as many shares shorted as SIRI and probably
> nobody considers bankruptcy in this case.
> As to the R/S, let's assume it will be 1/20 then we would get 11
> $ at the day of the split and probably down to 5 $ in a few days
> bc of selling first and ask questions later and back to 11 $ within
> another week or so and after that we will go up to around 20/25 $.
>
> My game plan for the R/S is simple, holding my core position and
> start adding the days after until it reverses.
A good 3q puts a shadow over my plan. My plan is to avoid risk and keep the hard work recovery.
For me it was simple.
I dumped all at 69 knowing about the delisting warning and Mel’s plan to rev-split. I will get back in after the split and after the rundown caused by the split.
The only risk in my plan will be when to buy. If GS monkey with the sp with flash trading and controls the rundown, I will never mess with SIRI again.
The manipulation is out of control. If GS continues manipulating after the split and with the sp over 3.00, I will stop trading SIRI. This Mafia like manipulation is one thing when the sp is under a buck. But if SIRI is still being manipulated at 3.00 we should all stop trading and move to China...
Shorting a stock will always decline when a stock keeps falling which is the case here. As soon as Siri goes back up to around .70 the shorts will step back in.
Mr. stupid
A CEO doesn't call its bulk of investors UNSOPHISTICATED for nothing. That's another indication he doesn't give a hoot about the common investor.
I would SIRIOUSLY contemplate selling now since it will creep down more before about a week before the numbers surface. Is this a sure thing? NO, I'm just going by the past trend and I suggest you do too.
So sell now and buy back a week before the numbers surface and you should be fine but you better sell again when the numbers come out.
Relmar has even said this and he's an obsessive Siri promoter.
You heard it first right here from Mr. Stupid himself.
And don't worry, I don't charge for my advice.
Mr. Stupid
by the way, sirius going much, much higher..
You have to look at the negative posts just as much, if not more, than the positive ones. The positive ones are always wishful thinking without much backbone. The negative posts are more open-minded and look at the stock as looking through all spheres.
It's amazing how similar the positive posts are compared to every Quarter. Same verbage but same result. Another dissapointed investor in the making.
You comment "sirius going much, much higher" should be put into spectrum that it's a fact Sirius has been going down "much much lower."
LOL
This week will be continuously bearish for Siri indicating a good sell point early in the week. I'd say monday or tuesday for selling and buying back on Friday.
I don't charge for my advice,
Mr. Stupid
I just bought 10,000 shares at .55 this morning. Stock is going up, because it hasn't been at .54 cents in over 2 months. The bulls are coming out to buy on the cheap. The stock will hit .70 by the time its for the conference call. If the EBITDA is raised to 400,000 , and a subs will gain or flatline, not lower as it did in the first or second quarter, the stock will gain .01 penny for this quarter, bringing it to .71 total.
Wait and see dude the bulls are out.
On Oct 11 11:11 PM Mr. Stupid wrote:
> Very bearish sentiment for Sirius this week. Better set your price
> points tomorrow to not lose too much.
>
> This week will be continuously bearish for Siri indicating a good
> sell point early in the week. I'd say monday or tuesday for selling
> and buying back on Friday.
>
> I don't charge for my advice,
>
> Mr. Stupid
Sell now then buy back at .40-.45. This is a good buy in point.
I don't charge for my advice,
Mr. Stupid
On Oct 12 12:20 PM BigVinnie wrote:
> HAHAHAHA Right.
> I just bought 10,000 shares at .55 this morning. Stock is going up,
> because it hasn't been at .54 cents in over 2 months. The bulls are
> coming out to buy on the cheap. The stock will hit .70 by the time
> its for the conference call. If the EBITDA is raised to 400,000 ,
> and a subs will gain or flatline, not lower as it did in the first
> or second quarter, the stock will gain .01 penny for this quarter,
> bringing it to .71 total.
> Wait and see dude the bulls are out.
Siri in 6 months has been up as high as 800%, it wouldn't be difficult for it to reach an additional 800%. From now siri has 6 more months to make an additional 800%. Delisting wouldn't occur until march.
Mel isn't buying into anything. If the stock doesn't reach .75 by december then look forward to an RS. The way myself and others are buying I don't see why it wouldn't hit .75 by December. It would take a really bad conference call to drop this stock to .40.
On Oct 12 07:25 PM Mr. Stupid wrote:
> This means your 5500 investment should be worth 4000 next week when
> it drops to .40. RS is coming soon. Mel is bying the time to announce
> his decision.
>
> Sell now then buy back at .40-.45. This is a good buy in point.
>
>
> I don't charge for my advice,
>
> Mr. Stupid
That was just a lottery ticket and doesn't have anything to do with the viability of this company.
LOL
I don't charge for my advice.
Mr. Stupid
On Oct 13 12:54 AM BigVinnie wrote:
> Don't count your eggs till they hatch.
> Siri in 6 months has been up as high as 800%, it wouldn't be difficult
> for it to reach an additional 800%. From now siri has 6 more months
> to make an additional 800%. Delisting wouldn't occur until march.
>
> Mel isn't buying into anything. If the stock doesn't reach .75 by
> december then look forward to an RS. The way myself and others are
> buying I don't see why it wouldn't hit .75 by December. It would
> take a really bad conference call to drop this stock to .40.
That was just a lottery ticket and doesn't have anything to do with the viability of this company.
On Oct 13 12:54 AM BigVinnie wrote:
> Don't count your eggs till they hatch.
> Siri in 6 months has been up as high as 800%, it wouldn't be difficult
> for it to reach an additional 800%. From now siri has 6 more months
> to make an additional 800%. Delisting wouldn't occur until march.
>
> Mel isn't buying into anything. If the stock doesn't reach .75 by
> december then look forward to an RS. The way myself and others are
> buying I don't see why it wouldn't hit .75 by December. It would
> take a really bad conference call to drop this stock to .40.
Do you think its possible? I do........
Donate your money to charity.
No longer just a float
Past 3 days, 16M to 31M shares traded computer to computer. This is Flash trading with variable 1 to 8/100 of a cent change. This keeping the volume traded up. True trading is very much lower than the volume indicated.
In the Am today the Order Book had BIDs of 43, 46, and 51 cents and one ASK of 75 cents. This happened several times from 9:45 to 10:20am. The computers took over, ramped up the volume after that time. Manipulation???
It's a game that children play. Sell now and take 2c profit before you lose 10c. Take heed for Siri will dissapoint again and again while Mel gets richer and richer.
Just give me all your money instead and I will use it to short and make you lots of mooooney
Mr. Stupid
This is true any short calls for oct, nov are screwed. I say the stock is .75 by nov, .90 by dec on good news that consumer spending is up. Then the stock just has to play a .10 spread between Jan-March. Easy Kill.
On Oct 14 02:18 PM between the hedges_ wrote:
> Between right on Intel quarter. Between right so far on financials.
> Go ahead and bet against Between and Sirius if you want Mr. Stupid.
> You and the other shorts and bench warmers are losing out each day.
> Right Big Vinnie? The shorts are petrified after the numbers coming
or sooner if the rev-split is pushed up...
On Oct 14 05:57 PM BigVinnie wrote:
>
> This is true any short calls for oct, nov are screwed. I say the
> stock is .75 by nov, .90 by dec on good news that consumer spending
> is up. Then the stock just has to play a .10 spread between Jan-March.
> Easy Kill.
>
> On Oct 14 02:18 PM between the hedges_ wrote:
"SHOP CLOSED"
On Oct 14 08:28 PM JohnDoski wrote:
> Sirius needs to ADVERTISE!!! Come on folks. It's that simple. Most
> people I know have no clue what Sirius has to offer. How many years
> that Sirius has been around and people still have no clue? Come on,
> get the word out. Spend the money. It'll be worth it just to get
> a quick campaign going. Once people are educated let the rest happen
> on it's own. Promote, Promote, Promote!!!
So far Mr. stupid I am right. A penny a day.It will close at .575 Hit .58 tomorrow, .59 on Monday. Watch the bollinger bands, and the call!! Stock is going up, up, up!!!!
On Oct 14 12:27 PM BigVinnie wrote:
> A penny a day is all it takes to keep the fear hating, media basing
> R/S monsters away from this stock. 162 days left + 1 penny per day=
> $1.62
>
> Do you think its possible? I do........
I went gold digging once in my backyard since I just knew that I would find a gold nugget. I was 3.
Mr. Stupid
On Oct 15 10:47 AM BigVinnie wrote:
> HMMMM
> So far Mr. stupid I am right. A penny a day.It will close at .575
> Hit .58 tomorrow, .59 on Monday. Watch the bollinger bands, and the
> call!! Stock is going up, up, up!!!!
Mr. Stupid
On Oct 15 09:28 AM between the hedges_ wrote:
> The shorts will be puking up their positions when they hear about
> the Sky Dock being sold in Apple Stores accross the nation, the new
> marketing agreement between Apple and Sirius, and the excitement
> generated about new Sirius product launches the day before Black
> Friday. Puking, I mean puking up their positions. Don't listen to
> doom, sithy, swede. Look at satwaves.com and read the news for yourself.
SIRI has potential and I see it could make a turn around in 16 to 20 months. Faster if we could get a management change. The hold backs are the cloud caused by the pending rev-split, economy, and debt.
Hope for SIRI causes me endless frustration, Here are my points.
Debt continues to build in interest and refinancing. Just as things start turning around, the debt will be due and a problem again. The cycle is endless with this company.
SIRI uses the revolving credit line and charges it off on investors. They keep it funded by 1. Share issue 2. Malone deal 3. Bond issue. They actually turn the credit line into an asset by putting it on share holders. Is that how you want to see a company get income?
When the rev-split gets done the next problem will be due. I do not know how SIRI will live if Mel continues to run it into the ground.
---ETFC, yes bad advice. That is another dog. Made some day trades on it 3 years ago and went to sleep on it while holding a small lose. Then it crashed and stock me like a pig. I am holding a 10K at 4.00 a share position. Should have sold at 2.00 a few weeks ago. But, this one will recover eventually.
On Oct 15 02:04 PM BigVinnie wrote:
> Well I was dumb enough to take your advise on ETFC 3 weeks ago, I'm
> down almost .10. Your advise sucks and is slightly in accurate. I
> believe my intuition is better than yours, I'm not chasing gold.
> I'm chasing the accuracy of EBITDA, stimulation in the economy and
> growth, and the fact that siri's debt is extended as far back as
> 2015.
Mr. Stupid
On Oct 15 02:04 PM BigVinnie wrote:
> Well I was dumb enough to take your advise on ETFC 3 weeks ago, I'm
> down almost .10. Your advise sucks and is slightly in accurate. I
> believe my intuition is better than yours, I'm not chasing gold.
> I'm chasing the accuracy of EBITDA, stimulation in the economy and
> growth, and the fact that siri's debt is extended as far back as
> 2015.
I have not worked to avg this one down because I also think it will recover. But, it also could be bought.
Do you tjing I will get 4.00 break even or should I be avg down?
On Oct 15 02:56 PM Mr. Stupid wrote:
> ah, you're one of those investors.....ETFC is a long-term hold, not
> a short term pop. You should evaluate your investment strategies.
> Remember, it isn't a loss unless you sell at a loss. This is one
> stock to hold since Etrade isn't going anywhere. You hold on to this
> one for 12 months you will thank me.
>
> Mr. Stupid
Look for surprising numbers for 3Q. Also, a buyout in the range of 3.50 to 5 bucks share could be in store sometime in late December to 2010 1Q.
I kind of hope there isn't an offer since I feel Etrade will go much much higher than 5 anyway.
Mr. Stupid
like I said tomorrow will end at .58.
The close for today was .58 after hours is .573. I'd say my accuracy was 96.5% on the call.
trading volume hit 15.5 million today which means 2/3's of the volume was on a buy, 1/3 was on a sell. Mid afternoon when the stock dropped to .56 trading volume was at 7.4million making 2/3 action a sell and 1/3 buy. Funny how this stock plays pout by the end of the day.
Somthn fishy about 3 days of 1 cent gain in the last 10 min of each day...
Mr. Stupid
On Oct 15 04:39 PM BigVinnie wrote:
> Hit the nail in the coffin today. Final ASK .5750.
> like I said tomorrow will end at .58.
> The close for today was .58 after hours is .573. I'd say my accuracy
> was 96.5% on the call.
> trading volume hit 15.5 million today which means 2/3's of the volume
> was on a buy, 1/3 was on a sell. Mid afternoon when the stock dropped
> to .56 trading volume was at 7.4million making 2/3 action a sell
> and 1/3 buy. Funny how this stock plays pout by the end of the day.
This is why I call it the penny a day to a dollar stock.
On Oct 15 04:56 PM SIRI-Doom wrote:
> Last Trade: 0.58
> Somthn fishy about 3 days of 1 cent gain in the last 10 min of each
> day...
Very Interesting way to hide some manipulation. Yet, better faster and cheaper ways exist... Maybe I don;t get it...
On Oct 15 07:09 PM BigVinnie wrote:
> You will see incremental changes on the short. The stock will be
> shorted in early morning trading. The shorts are only shorting on
> fractions of penny's which will probably put the stock at .572~.574
> until about 11:30. Then what was shorted is exchanged for buys. That's
> largely the huge shift and occurrence that has been going on with
> this stock for the past 3 days. It starts with volume which is mostly
> shorting, and then it appears whatever is shorted is then exchanged
> for a buy. You can see that the volume each hour almost doubles for
> every share sold short there are 2 buys. That's the huge difference
> in trading volume from 11am, to 3 pm where at 3pm the volume is double
> that and the price is raised 1 penny.
>
> This is why I call it the penny a day to a dollar stock.
Big players that have a good percentage of the trade volume probably go in and out of trading siri within the day. One person that is collecting on fractions of pennys, can go on a buy sell frenzy and walk out with a few penny's to the dollar at the end of the day, this is why flash trading should be deemed illegal. Look at the way the stock moves through out the day. It's a wave of buy and sell, and there are a few with large sums of volume doing this trend.
Instead of waiting a whole day to trade on the penny. One or a few people with large trading volume can go in and out of shorting and buying the stock and get 3 times what the average buyer or seller is walking out with.
Mr. Stupid
On Oct 15 09:06 PM BigVinnie wrote:
> People make up to $1000 dollars a day on day trading, just short
> changing fractions of pennys on siri. If you look at the trade volume
> of siri it's not small. 15million just today, when it was heavily
> shorted trade volume was as high as 20 to 25million.
> Big players that have a good percentage of the trade volume probably
> go in and out of trading siri within the day. One person that is
> collecting on fractions of pennys, can go on a buy sell frenzy and
> walk out with a few penny's to the dollar at the end of the day,
> this is why flash trading should be deemed illegal. Look at the way
> the stock moves through out the day. It's a wave of buy and sell,
> and there are a few with large sums of volume doing this trend.<br/>
>
> Instead of waiting a whole day to trade on the penny. One or a few
> people with large trading volume can go in and out of shorting and
> buying the stock and get 3 times what the average buyer or seller
> is walking out with.
I don't charge for my advice,
Mr. Stupid
SIRI has 120 days from 9-15-09 to trade 10 consecutive days at or over the dollar. Additional time requires a request and a NASDAQ hearing. SIRI does NOT expect more time because a plan and stock holder permission to rev-split is already provided.
www.nasdaq.com/service...
program...looks like power came back on at 2:44...I think a lot of
shorts were waiting for the .01 gain at days end...turned into a
.015 loss ....
Possible...
But, see the Skyduck quacking as it cost more than a reciver and only works on XM... Its a duck for the geeks. Walmart is saving some dust for the boxes.
3q and Apple are going to be great drivers. But will it go to the buck? Yes, SIRI will go up.
Lets play a game. Call the high... I call
SIRI 86 cents sometime in the 2 weeks before and after the 3q report....
What is your call?
The sec is putting an end to the to the shorties.
Now i change my first statement. Sirius stock will now gain .015 per day.
finance.yahoo.com/news...
According to a criminal complaint filed in U.S. District Court in Manhattan, Rajaratnam obtained insider information and then caused the Galleon Technology Funds to execute trades that earned a profit of more than $12.7 million between January 2006 and July 2007. Other schemes garnered millions more and continued into this year, authorities said.
Bharara said the defendants benefited from tips about the earnings, earnings guidance and acquisition plans of various companies. Sometimes, those who provided tips received financial benefits and sometimes they just traded tips for more inside information, he added.
The timing of the arrests might be explained by a footnote in the complaint against Rajaratnam. In it, an FBI agent said he had learned that Rajaratnam had been warned to be careful and that Rajaratnam, in response, had said that a former employee of the Galleon Group was likely to be wearing a "wire."
Mr. Stupid
On Oct 16 09:40 PM BigVinnie wrote:
> For those that don't know a good reason why siri stock went up was
> because Raj Rajaratman one of the wealthiest hedge funders also known
> for shorting sirius stock with his hedge fund was arrested today
> on reports of insider trading. It's only a metter of time before
> people in goldman sachs get the shaft!!!
> The sec is putting an end to the to the shorties.
>
> Now i change my first statement. Sirius stock will now gain .015
> per day.
>
> finance.yahoo.com/news...
>
Mr. Stupid
Mr. Stupid
Here is a comment I found that also may answer some questions. This guy explains 3 trades locked out all other retail at the close...
----------------
The market for Sirius XM retail investors closed Thursday at 3:30 p.m.. The after-hours session brought with it 3 more examples of stock manipulation. 3 blocks meant to bid the price down of 566,644 shares, 5,333,333 shares and 7,862,966 shares. Out the 14 million shares traded in the extended session at the time of my writing this, nearly all of them came from these three trades.
Having successfully kept the stock under a dollar for the close, the retail investor was again permitted to buy and sell in the late session. So where is the SEC in all of this? I wish I knew. And perhaps we should all bring this to the attention of the SEC. While we’re at it, it seems Attorney General Andrew Cuomo of N.Y. is interested in bringing these market manipulators to justice. I will post the links in the SiriusBuzz forums for anyone who wishes to file a complaint as I believe there is strength in numbers, and that together we CAN make a difference.
----------------
Money without intelligence is like a car without a road.
Thousands of ways exist to manipulate stocks. But, none of them matter in a controlled market.
1. The United States Government handed control of all financials to the FED and Goldman Sacks in the first "Bush" Bail Out.
2. SIRI is controlled by Goldman Sachs by contract and loan with stock LEAN guarantee. Goldman Sachs uses that LEAN to barrow shares to short a hedge on the loan. That hedge has amassed billions in share traded in profit for Goldman Sachs.
Believe what ever you need to believe. We as retail investors are like sheep being slaughtered. The Government has our balls. Goldman Sachs has everything else.
For SIRI it is all an inside deal. Mel needs to reduce the stock issue and he will let Goldman Sachs keep SIRI trading under the dollar. After we get milked a few more times while they make it all look good, the rev-split will happen.
It was all planned... No reason to argue… Just wait and see…
Galeon Technology fund and Goldman Sachs exchanged financial data on sirius satellite radio as far back as 2006. In 2007 galeon technology fund came out with a report that sirius satellite radio would file for bankruptcy in 2008. This fund has been shorting the stock since the $6 price range in 2007, and possibly as far back as middle 2006. You have to know your history on this fund, which obviously you don't. Raj Rajaratman is accused of insider information from 2004-2006, and are just now finding new information on many other companies that he traded with.
So far stock price speaks for itself, I'm rigth your wrong. Stock is up .03 and I'm not making that up...LOL
I don't charge for my advise.... LOL
The bulls are are out, so try to beat it or join it!!!!!! LOL
On Oct 18 01:54 PM Mr. Stupid wrote:
> oh yeah, Siri went up two or three cents because of this goon? He
> wasn't messing with small companies such as Siri. Google and microsoft
> were companies he was getting inside info. You're just making stuff
> up. Do us all a favor and stop thinking.
>
> Mr. Stupid
On Oct 18 01:57 PM Mr. Stupid wrote:
> If you follow this stock you wjould know that it creeps up around
> financial release date. Creeping up right now has nothing to do with
> anything else. I would buy a little now (high risk) and sell after
> the numbers surface. Remember, even with nice numbers, this company
> is laden with debt and R/S is right around the corner. Don't hold
> this stock as you will lose christmas presents under the tree and
> your children will be disapointed.
>
> Mr. Stupid
It could also be the news of what Mel said about no plan to rev-split.
It's probably the normal build up on the q report...
What ever is doing this, I just do not thinl it will trade the dollar for 10 days needed. We shall see...
SIRIUS XM will hold a conference call at 8:00 am ET on Thursday, November 5, 2009 to discuss these results.