Market Outlook: Why I Am Scared

Really, this idea of a 'V' shaped recovery that is being thrown around simply seems to be too good to be true. Hell, if oil isn't completely traded in dollars, that wouldn't help anything either; despite that fact that we prolly deserve the smack in the face that a move of that nature would be.

(Click to enlarge)

While the above picture certainly isn't any evidence that the market will be going up or down in the future, it is interesting to see how things have happened, when compared with other crashes.

Frankly, I am presently pretty nervous, as there are not nearly as many compelling valuations when compared with virtually any other point in the past year... We were all spoiled with a plethora of companies that were selling for under 5x sustainable cash flow and/or less than cash minus all liabilities. Until sales of antacids fall, in the Kingdom of Value Investment, Cash is King, Pricing Power the Queen, and as always, Jim Cramer is most certainly the Jester.

Comments

[prairiedog555:]

"But this time it is different, "
say the politicians and the Wall street desparados.

Oct 07 08:25 AM

[tobi:]

The slogan of today is "If I don't see a problem there definitely is none" looking at current market valuations.

Oct 07 08:50 AM

[Jeff Diercks:]

They say "the market always climbs a wall of worry." That certainly appears to be the case this time around. Stay with the market until the trend is no longer up...it is just that simple. Right now the trend is up.

Oct 07 09:43 AM

[David McSwain:]

Good article. The unprecedented government intervention skews the current trend line. The current trend would look a lot more like 1929 if there wasn’t such huge stimulus dollars being pumped into the economy. The sad part is that this government intervention will continue because of a fundamental flaw. What is the flaw?- Belief in a lie. Here is the lie:

“Only government can break the vicious cycles that are crippling our economy -- where a lack of spending leads to lost jobs which leads to even less spending; where an inability to lend and borrow stops growth and leads to even less credit.”
-Barack Obama at George Mason University 1/8/2009

And

"Those of us who have looked to the self-interest of lending institutions to protect shareholder's equity (myself especially) are in a state of shocked disbelief”.
-Alan Greenspan before the House oversight committee 10/23/2008.

What is the lie? The lie is one we tell ourselves- that we are getting better and smarter. Obama says that we are “big” enough to fix problems. Are we? Alan thought we had progressed enough to not make the mistakes of the past. Have we? Both have the same core belief- that we are better and smarter than our counterparts of 1929 or any other past figures in the middle of a downturn. This is the lie we tell ourselves. The truth is, we are no better than those of the past. The truth is, we do not learn from our mistakes. The truth is, we think it is all about us. We are wrong. There is a God in heaven. He sees things as they really are. Here is what he has to say:

If My people who are called by My name will humble themselves, and pray and seek My face, and turn from their wicked ways, then I will hear from heaven, and will forgive their sin and heal their land. –the book of 2 Chronicles, chapter 7 verse 14.

Do you want you land healed?

Oct 07 10:41 AM

[untrusting ...:]

What's different this time? .... have you ever know a politican or Wall Street to ever do anything but act in their own self-interest, regardless of the consequences for anyone else?


On Oct 07 08:25 AM prairiedog555 wrote:

> "But this time it is different, "
> say the politicians and the Wall street desparados.

Oct 07 03:58 PM