Cramer's Mad Money - The Oddest Retail Phenomenon in 30 Years (10/7/09)

 |  Includes: COH, FCX, FDO, HPY, JWN, K, MDLZ, MDT, SAN, T, TJX, TSRA, VZ
by: Miriam Metzinger

Stocks discussed on the in-depth session of Jim Cramer's Mad Money TV Program, Wednesday October 7.

Oddest Retail Phenomenon in 30 Years: Family Dollar (NYSE:FDO), Kraft (KFT), Kellogg (NYSE:K), TJX (NYSE:TJX), Coach (NYSE:COH), Nordstrom (NYSE:JWN)

Some strange things are happening in retail. Family Dollar reported a strong quarter, but an article in the New York Times indicated the consumer is still buying quality brand names from Kellogg and Kraft. Even stranger is Goldman Sachs' upgrade of TJX along with Coach and Nordstrom. Both ends of retail are not supposed to be working at the same time; “In my 30-year career of picking stocks,” Cramer said, “it has never all worked at once. We’re either supposed to be shopping at Nordstrom or schlepping to Family Dollar.”

However, in the past year, many rules have been broken, and Cramer says it might be a new trend that retail is trading in tandem. He would wait for a decline before buying stocks in the sector. A buying opportunity may happen if there is disappointment following Thursday's retail number;

Covidien (COV)

Investors unsure of how to trade earnings reports should look to companies that have preannounced good numbers to avoid losing money on a disappointing report. Cramer says Covidien fulfills this criterion, since it preannounced better-than-expected numbers in August and is set to report earnings in November. Of all the healthcare companies, Covidien is probably "one of the safest healthcare plays, or at least safest from Washington, that’s out there,” Cramer said. Its three main areas of concentration, medical devices, medical supplies and pharmaceuticals address Obama's reforms through cost savings and preventative care. Although Senator Baucus' bill threatens to tax medical devices, only 10% of Covidien's revenues would be affected by such a tax.

Covidien is making profitable acquisitions, such as Aspect Medical Systems, is spinning off less profitable divisions and is developing a new pain treatment that could gain FDA approval by next month. While Covidien once traded at a premium, it is now cheaper than its peers, and Cramer would take advantage of this discount.

Mad Mail: Heartland Payment System (NYSE:HPY), Verizon (NYSE:VZ), AT&T (NYSE:T), Tessera (NASDAQ:TSRA), Freeport McMoRan (NYSE:FCX), Banco Santander (STD)

Although Heartland, which handles credit and debit services as well as payroll and check management, is in a sector that has bottomed, Cramer thinks it is highly speculative because it may be liable for a security breach that occurred in 2008. Since it is uncertain how the company will be affected, Cramer would proceed only with caution. One viewer asked why Cramer consistently recommends Verizon when its stock price doesn't move much. He replied that Verizon is a conservative long-term investment that "pays you to wait" with its generous dividend. Apple and Tessera, on the other hand, have more "tsunami potential."

With gold and silver on the rise, one viewer asked if copper is going to be next. Cramer says he views copper as a play on China and likes Freeport, although he would wait for a pullback before buying. He reiterated his bullishness on Latin America, and says it tends to bounce back faster than other countries. A favorite stock in this space is Banco Santander.


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