September Same Store Sales Only Less Bad

 |  Includes: ANF, ARO, BJ, COST, DDS, GPS, JCP, LB, M, NMG, SKS, TGT, TJX
by: Denis Ouellet, CFA

Year-old trends continue:

  • Same Store Sales (SSS) remain generally weak, more so at high end retailers (left end side on the chart) while discounters (right end side) outperform.
  • September SSS were less bad for all retailers with negative sales trends and better for others. Obviously, as year-ago comps began to worsen at mid-year and got increasingly bad throughout the second half, comparisons have to improve. SSS turned quite weak for most retailers in September 2008.The fact that results beat analysts estimates only prove that analysts are not great in predicting monthly sales patterns (who is?).
  • For example, GAP (NYSE:GPS) and JC Penney (NYSE:JCP) are showing much improved trends in September but their SSS were down 11.0% and 12.4% respectively in September 2008.
  • At the opposite, BJ's (NYSE:BJ)’ 5.5% sales gain this year is excellent given that it is against a 10.4% jump in September 2008.
  • Also noteworthy: Aeropostale (NYSE:ARO) keeps it up. TJX maintains a strong sales momentum.


Disclosure: no positions