Analyzing most insurance companies as investments is difficult because of the competitive nature of the field and the wide diversification across multiple different product categories and geographical segments. $2.4B Health Net (HNT) is different though. While the company has several different healthcare plans, roughly half of the firm's business is in the western US, and California in particular.
Four upcoming major catalysts for the firm make me confident that it is currently undervalued by at least 20%. Further, the relative simplicity of the company's portfolio makes me confident that I have accurately identified the risks the firm faces and that they are quite limited for the foreseeable future.
Health Net's lack of geographic diversification is usually a...