Going by Railcar Loadings, We're Stalled at a Crossing

We would expect that of the economy were truly picking up steam (notice the foreshadowing) then railcar loadings would be climbing.

Not only has total rail traffic failed to begin its seasonal upturn, loadings of crushed stone and lumber are falling. These are signs of an economy that is stalling.

Disclosures: none

Comments

[ebworthen:]

Good perspective; over the road trucks carry a lot of goods, but often after they are off-loaded from rail cars first, either from ports or food and fiber goods from the heartland.

Oct 09 01:49 PM

[notsosmart:]

finally someone a lot smarter than i boosts my argument that something is very wrong with all that rolling stock sitting idle.

Oct 09 04:48 PM

[Donald Ingram:]

To back up your Railfax report the BDI is also tanking. Evidence the recent post of a great number of ships with no crews anchored at different locations around the globe. The recent ATA report of loaded miles (down) still trending lower does not bode well for the coming shopping season. Factories in China are receiving cancellation notices from North American retailers that foresee a "skinny" Christmas shopping season on the horizon. Recent consumer credit is still contracting at a record rate, while lending is still stalled. These all add up to an economy still in deep trouble.

Oct 09 08:24 PM

[sethmcs:]

Just traveled 300 miles on Ohio and Pennsylvania Turnpikes. Where's the trucks?

Oct 10 12:17 AM

[untrusting ...:]

Author's report and your comments are exactly correct. Unfortunatley the stock market and economic reality are two totally different things, at least at this point in time anyway. The market proves it almost every day now.


On Oct 09 08:24 PM Donald Ingram wrote:

> To back up your Railfax report the BDI is also tanking. Evidence
> the recent post of a great number of ships with no crews anchored
> at different locations around the globe. The recent ATA report of
> loaded miles (down) still trending lower does not bode well for the
> coming shopping season. Factories in China are receiving cancellation
> notices from North American retailers that foresee a "skinny" Christmas
> shopping season on the horizon. Recent consumer credit is still contracting
> at a record rate, while lending is still stalled. These all add up
> to an economy still in deep trouble.

Oct 10 04:22 AM

[No1:]

Locomotives and cars are sitting idle across all RRs.

A few have come out of storage from the lows of March but the percentage is nothing to rally the markets about (~15%).

I saw a stat that said the RRs lug about 70% of the raw materials. Even if that is an exaggeration and the true number is lower, that means if there are "green shoot", they must be coming from the trucking industry.

Oct 10 11:57 AM

[Northstar10000:]

The stock market is designed to suck in the largest percentage of small fry so the big boys can take your money. We are not in for a double dip "W" we are in for a "Y" shaped implosion. Year end sell off coming

Oct 10 07:00 PM

[Snitzer:]

Our much smaller YOY trucking company has seen modest gains in traffic the last month, but we're waiting to see not only the numbers for end of year but how we come out of the gate after the holidays. Our survival has been a muted surprise, and if we make it to Q2 of next year then perhaps we can state with some degree of certainty that yes, we survived not only the recession but the recovery as well.

Oct 12 01:03 AM