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Whether you call it a reality check...
(Image source)
...a wake-up call...
(Image source)
...or a splash of cold water reality,...
(Image source)
...based on the following MarketWatch report, "October Surprise from Bank Earnings?" it appears that lots of people are going to be caught out when banks announce their earnings in the weeks and months ahead (I guess they've been listening to the gang that couldn't rate straight):
Some experts worry results may be much more negative than investors expect
Bank stocks surged during the third quarter, but as companies prepare to report results from the period, several industry experts remain concerned.
"We are very early on in this credit cycle," Timothy Long, chief national bank examiner at the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, said at a recent conference.
"That statement caught everyone by surprise," said Nancy Bush, a veteran bank analyst who attended the conference.
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When &/or if, real Bank figures are allowed or able to surface, including Mark to Market asset allocations, then many will be truly shocked!
Timothy Long has it correct about the credit cycle.
Unwinding toxic assets has been deferred.
The crisis is still underlying. The banks don't want to unwind them because they will have to find money to increase their capital reserves. The Fed isn't pushing the matter because only maturity of the toxic assets will indicate how bad the situation is and the hope is time will let these securities unwind themselves.
The next wave of Option Arm is Januaty 2010 so markets could go higher until then. It is a sucker's rally though. The higher the markets go, the more the unwitting fool is to lose come 2010.
What if the situation is ten times worse than forcasted?
No one truly knows what these bundled MBS are truly worth until they're unwound. The real estate market is in shambles and people are still foreclosing, only commercial properties are tanking now.
High unemployment is adding to the fray.
Of course greed is a strong emotion and the masses invest without a clue as to what is occurring around them. One would think with existing losses they'd stay away from markets.
It must be the desire to lose.
We live in interesting times!
pd
On Oct 11 08:16 AM perceptions_now wrote:
> OFF TOPIC!!!
>
> I am looking for assistance in compilling Events that have shaped
> Recent World History, particularly in the following areas Political,
> Energy, Technological, Climate, Population, General.
>
> Following is a starter list, your suggestions &/or corrections
> would be welcome!
>
> 1712 - British ironmonger Thomas Newcomen invents the first widely
> used steam engine, paving the way for the Industrial Revolution and
> industrial scale use of coal.
> 1775 - The first fully developed version of the Watt Steam engine
> goes into production
> 1776 - The American colonies sign the Declaration of Independence
>
> 1781 - The American Revolution ends, as the British surrendered at
> Yorktown on October 17
> 1798 - The Principle of Population by Thomas Robert Malthus was first
> published
> 1800 - World human population reaches one billion
> 1823 - Samuel Brown patented the first internal combustion engine
> to be applied industrially
> 1859 - Worlds First Commercial Oil well began producing, in the US.
>
> 1859 - Charles Darwin's On the Origin of Species, published November
> 24
> 1861 - American Civil War Began
> 1865 - American Civil War Ends
> 1868 - Louis Pasteur Discovery of the Germ theory of disease
> 1886 - Karl Benz unveils the Motorwagen, often regarded as the first
> true automobile.
> 1886 – US Supreme court decision in Santa Clara CA allowing corporations
> to have 'personhood'
> 1893 – New Zealand became the first country to grant Women the Right
> to Vote
> 1903 – Wright Bros first powered flight
> 1913 - The Federal Reserve is formed
> 1913 - Ford introduces the assembly line.
> 1914 - World War I Starts
> 1917 - Lenin's Russian Revolution
>
> 1918 - World War I Ends
> 1919 - Treaty of Versailes to settle affairs after WW1
> 1927 - Carbon emissions from fossil fuel burning and industry reach
> one billion tonnes per year
> 1928 - Penicillin was discovery by Alexander Fleming. It was later
> developed as Medicine by Walter Florey
> 1929 - The Great Depression starts, Stock Market crash begins October
> 24
> 1930 - World human population reaches two billion
> 1939 - World War II Starts
> 1944 - The Bretton Woods agreement
> 1945 – World War II Ends, U.S. atomic bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki
>
> 1946 – THE BABY BOOM begins
> 1948 - Israel is reborn, as an independent nation
> 1949 - People's Republic of China is Proclaimed
> 1955 - US researcher Gilbert Plass analyses infrared absorption of
> various gases & concludes that doubling CO2 concentrations would
> increase temperatures by 3-4C.
> 1957 - Treaty of Rome creates the European Economic Community <br/>1960
> – World human population reaches three billion.
> 1960 – The Oral Contraceptive Pill was approved for use
> 1962 - October Cuban Missile Crisis
> 1963 - Assassination of John F. Kennedy
> 1964 - THE BABY BOOM starts to Decline
> 1965 - A US President's Advisory Committee panel warns that the greenhouse
> effect is a matter of "real concern".
>
>
> 1968 – The Personal Computer (seekingalpha.com/symbo...)
> was first advertised for commercial sale
> 1969 – Man lands on Moon
> 1969 - Woodstock – Summer of love, the end of innocence
> 1970 - Peak Oil in US
> 1973 - US decouples US$ from Gold..
> 1973 - First “Oil Shock”
> 1975 - World human population reaches four billion.
> 1975 - US scientist Wallace Broecker puts the term "global warming"
> into the public domain in the title of a scientific paper.
> 1985 - The Antarctic ozone hole was discovered by British scientists
> Joesph Farman, Brian Gardiner, and Jonathan Shanklin of the British
> Antarctic Survey
> 1987 - World human population reaches five billion
> 1987 – Stock Market crash October 19.
> 1988 - Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (seekingalpha.com/symbo...)
> formed to collate and assess evidence on climate change.
> 1989 - Berlin Wall falls
> 1989 - UK Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher calls for a global treaty
> on climate change
> 1989 - Carbon emissions from fossil fuel burning and industry reach
> six billion tonnes per year.
> 1990 - IPCC produces 1st Report. It concludes that temperatures have
> risen by 0.3-0.6C over the last century
> 1991 - Soviet Union Collapses
> 1995 - IPCC 2nd Report concludes that the balance of evidence suggests
> "a discernible human influence" on the Earth's climate.
> 1998 - Strong El Nino conditions combine with global warming to produce
> the warmest year on record.
> 1999 – World human population reaches six billion.
>
> 2001 – 9/11
> 2001 - IPCC 3rd Report finds "new and stronger evidence" that humanity's
> emissions are the main cause of the warming seen in the second half
> of the 20th Century.
> 2005 - World Peak Oil (Effectively, according to me)
> 2006 - the Stern Review concludes that climate change could damage
> global GDP by up to 20% if left unchecked - but curbing it would
> cost about 1% of global GDP.
> 2006 - Carbon emissions from fossil fuel burning and industry reach
> eight billion tonnes per year.
> 2007 - IPCC 4th Report concludes it is more than 90% likely that
> humanity's emissions of greenhouse gases are responsible for modern-day
> climate change.
> 2007- Global Financial Crisis begins in October
> 2008 - The Keeling project at Mauna Loa shows that CO2 concentrations
> have risen from 315 parts per million (ppm) in 1958 to 380ppm in
> 2008.
> 2008 - Oil Price Peaked at $147 per barrel.
> 2009 - Barrack Obama inaugurated - America's first black president
>
> 2009 - 192 governments convene for the UN climate summit in Copenhagen
>
> 2050 - World population is projected to reach 9 Billion
www.dailymotion.com/vi...
On Oct 11 09:04 AM NOTEMAN wrote:
> You forgot 2012 the end of the world
I think we are in a early stages of depression because of the kind of no mans land we are in today with regards to the China Consolidation of manufacturing , which is wealth creation , and now with world resources consolidated by China as well , there are no Free Market principles left for western nations to negotiate price discovery at any level . when China starts to squeeze our supply requairements we need from them , the Hyper inflation we will start seeing is going to keep our economic recovery in terms of valuation of consumer driven stock prices at zero growth , bad news for the Wall Street investor .
Rare earths are vital, and China owns them all
www.marketwatch.com/st...
www.timesonline.co.uk/...
And check out the list of members , they are some of the same that are writing policy today .....
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/...
On Oct 11 08:16 AM perceptions_now wrote:
> OFF TOPIC!!!
>
> I am looking for assistance in compilling Events that have shaped
> Recent World History, particularly in the following areas Political,
> Energy, Technological, Climate, Population, General.
>
> Following is a starter list, your suggestions &/or corrections
> would be welcome!
>
> 1712 - British ironmonger Thomas Newcomen invents the first widely
> used steam engine, paving the way for the Industrial Revolution and
> industrial scale use of coal.
> 1775 - The first fully developed version of the Watt Steam engine
> goes into production
> 1776 - The American colonies sign the Declaration of Independence
>
> 1781 - The American Revolution ends, as the British surrendered at
> Yorktown on October 17
> 1798 - The Principle of Population by Thomas Robert Malthus was first
> published
> 1800 - World human population reaches one billion
> 1823 - Samuel Brown patented the first internal combustion engine
> to be applied industrially
> 1859 - Worlds First Commercial Oil well began producing, in the US.
>
> 1859 - Charles Darwin's On the Origin of Species, published November
> 24
> 1861 - American Civil War Began
> 1865 - American Civil War Ends
> 1868 - Louis Pasteur Discovery of the Germ theory of disease
> 1886 - Karl Benz unveils the Motorwagen, often regarded as the first
> true automobile.
> 1886 – US Supreme court decision in Santa Clara CA allowing corporations
> to have 'personhood'
> 1893 – New Zealand became the first country to grant Women the Right
> to Vote
> 1903 – Wright Bros first powered flight
> 1913 - The Federal Reserve is formed
> 1913 - Ford introduces the assembly line.
> 1914 - World War I Starts
> 1917 - Lenin's Russian Revolution
>
> 1918 - World War I Ends
> 1919 - Treaty of Versailes to settle affairs after WW1
> 1927 - Carbon emissions from fossil fuel burning and industry reach
> one billion tonnes per year
> 1928 - Penicillin was discovery by Alexander Fleming. It was later
> developed as Medicine by Walter Florey
> 1929 - The Great Depression starts, Stock Market crash begins October
> 24
> 1930 - World human population reaches two billion
> 1939 - World War II Starts
> 1944 - The Bretton Woods agreement
> 1945 – World War II Ends, U.S. atomic bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki
>
> 1946 – THE BABY BOOM begins
> 1948 - Israel is reborn, as an independent nation
> 1949 - People's Republic of China is Proclaimed
> 1955 - US researcher Gilbert Plass analyses infrared absorption of
> various gases & concludes that doubling CO2 concentrations would
> increase temperatures by 3-4C.
> 1957 - Treaty of Rome creates the European Economic Community <br/>1960
> – World human population reaches three billion.
> 1960 – The Oral Contraceptive Pill was approved for use
> 1962 - October Cuban Missile Crisis
> 1963 - Assassination of John F. Kennedy
> 1964 - THE BABY BOOM starts to Decline
> 1965 - A US President's Advisory Committee panel warns that the greenhouse
> effect is a matter of "real concern".
>
>
> 1968 – The Personal Computer (seekingalpha.com/symbo...)
> was first advertised for commercial sale
> 1969 – Man lands on Moon
> 1969 - Woodstock – Summer of love, the end of innocence
> 1970 - Peak Oil in US
> 1973 - US decouples US$ from Gold..
> 1973 - First “Oil Shock”
> 1975 - World human population reaches four billion.
> 1975 - US scientist Wallace Broecker puts the term "global warming"
> into the public domain in the title of a scientific paper.
> 1985 - The Antarctic ozone hole was discovered by British scientists
> Joesph Farman, Brian Gardiner, and Jonathan Shanklin of the British
> Antarctic Survey
> 1987 - World human population reaches five billion
> 1987 – Stock Market crash October 19.
> 1988 - Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (seekingalpha.com/symbo...)
> formed to collate and assess evidence on climate change.
> 1989 - Berlin Wall falls
> 1989 - UK Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher calls for a global treaty
> on climate change
> 1989 - Carbon emissions from fossil fuel burning and industry reach
> six billion tonnes per year.
> 1990 - IPCC produces 1st Report. It concludes that temperatures have
> risen by 0.3-0.6C over the last century
> 1991 - Soviet Union Collapses
> 1995 - IPCC 2nd Report concludes that the balance of evidence suggests
> "a discernible human influence" on the Earth's climate.
> 1998 - Strong El Nino conditions combine with global warming to produce
> the warmest year on record.
> 1999 – World human population reaches six billion.
>
> 2001 – 9/11
> 2001 - IPCC 3rd Report finds "new and stronger evidence" that humanity's
> emissions are the main cause of the warming seen in the second half
> of the 20th Century.
> 2005 - World Peak Oil (Effectively, according to me)
> 2006 - the Stern Review concludes that climate change could damage
> global GDP by up to 20% if left unchecked - but curbing it would
> cost about 1% of global GDP.
> 2006 - Carbon emissions from fossil fuel burning and industry reach
> eight billion tonnes per year.
> 2007 - IPCC 4th Report concludes it is more than 90% likely that
> humanity's emissions of greenhouse gases are responsible for modern-day
> climate change.
> 2007- Global Financial Crisis begins in October
> 2008 - The Keeling project at Mauna Loa shows that CO2 concentrations
> have risen from 315 parts per million (ppm) in 1958 to 380ppm in
> 2008.
> 2008 - Oil Price Peaked at $147 per barrel.
> 2009 - Barrack Obama inaugurated - America's first black president
>
> 2009 - 192 governments convene for the UN climate summit in Copenhagen
>
> 2050 - World population is projected to reach 9 Billion
www.youtube.com/watch?...
there are NO EXPERTS just people pushing their agenda .
think for yourself and buy more bonds than stocks .if a stock has no dividend ,run away !
It all smells like the endgame , google endgame and check it out , you might thinks its stretch ...but is it really , when we see all the stalling around future growth of the consumer driven markets
On Oct 11 10:47 PM TVtraders wrote:
> looks like more upside to go even though the economy sucks.
>
> good Sunday reading: tinyurl.com/n854tt
www.bloomberg.com/apps...