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“Sell in May and go away” does not seem to have worked for any of the best 6-month periods listed below.
6-Months Ended | Year | Index Gain |
Sep. 30 | 1933 | 66.2% |
Jun. 30 | 1933 | 57.7% |
Dec. 31 | 1932 | 56.2% |
Sep. 30 | 1938 | 44.0% |
Jun. 30 | 1975 | 38.8% |
Sep. 30 | 1935 | 37.2% |
Sep. 30 | 2009 | 32.5% |
Data: Bloomberg
Despite the widespread belief that Thanksgiving through March is the strongest period for stocks, not one of the best seven half-year periods wrapped up in the March quarter. You can't make oversized gains like this except following spectacular sell-offs.
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In reality this rally was exaggerated as the March low was very oversold. Risk appetite is still strong and I think we will see SPY 1,200 before 800.