Jim Rogers on the Next 10 Years 131 comments
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By Heather Bell
I’m moving to China … possibly to live in a bunker. At least that was my inclination after listening to a presentation by Jim Rogers Thursday.
Now don’t get me wrong―Mr. Commodities wasn’t all doom and gloom. In fact, his talk was both informative and highly entertaining. But Rogers doesn’t sugarcoat things―he’s very matter-of-fact about his concerns and projections for the future. And most of them don’t bode well for the U.S.
I’ll be posting an interview with Jim Rogers on the site in the coming week, but for now, I just wanted to offer some highlights from his speech at ETF Securities' mini-conference and the Q&A that followed.
1. The 21st century belongs to China
According to Rogers, the 19th century was the era of the British Empire and the 20th century was the U.S.’ heyday. But the 21st century is China’s (though the rest of Asia is definitely going to get a boost too).
The reasons for this are many, but some points brought up by Rogers include the following:
- The Chinese want to live like we do;
- They are more eager to work;
- They are better at saving;
- There are 1.5 billion Chinese citizens (and 3 billion people in all of Asia), and we owe them money. They are, according to Rogers, “among the best capitalists in the world.”
There will be some setbacks, of course, Rogers says, but these are opportunities. “If you see setbacks in China, you should pick up the phone and get more involved,” he advised, before adding his favorite refrain, “The best advice of any kind that I can give you is to teach your children and grandchildren Chinese.”
China’s path to world domination started with Deng Xiaoping’s capitalist programs in 1978, and there hasn’t been any looking back since. Rogers views China’s dominance as nigh-on unstoppable except for one little thing: its water problem. There are parts of the country that are running out of water, and when the water disappears, Rogers points out, so does civilization. However, the country is acting aggressively to combat the problem, and he doesn’t view it as that much of a threat.
2a. Jim Rogers is not a Ben Bernanke fan
Yep, it’s a fact. No “Team Bernanke” shirts for Jim Rogers (who said to scattered applause during the Q&A session that if he was in charge of the U.S. economy he would “abolish the Fed and resign.”).
Rogers is appalled by the government’s actions—Bernanke’s in particular. The U.S. government’s strategy calls for the debasement of the dollar, he says, calling it a “horrible policy.” While he concedes it can work in the short term, it NEVER works in the mid- or long term.
“He’s going to run those printing presses until we run out of trees, because that’s the only thing he knows,” Rogers said of Bernanke.
Add that on top of the country’s rapidly growing astronomical debt, and Rogers believes you’ve got a recipe for disaster.
2b. The U.S. dollar is screwed
Consider this a corollary to point 2a. Its status as a reserve currency is teetering on a precipice, in Rogers’ opinion, and he’s not alone. In fact, so many people are selling dollars right now that he’s sitting tight, waiting for a possible—and ultimately unsustainable—rally in order to exit the market. Of course, if it fails to rally and just drops again …
“I’ll just have to panic and sell like everyone else,” Rogers said.
3. Commodities, commodities, commodities
OK, as mentioned before, there are 3 billion people in Asia, most of whom are aspiring to play the home version of the American Dream game show. And let’s face it: American society is largely about consumption. We like stuff―we buy it, we wear it, we eat it, we flaunt it, we sometimes even bedazzle it (yeah, Google that). So that’s a lot more consumption on the global level. Rogers notes that while consumption is expected to increase exponentially, not a lot of capacity has been added in the last few decades for a lot of commodities. Meaning, not a lot of new refineries have been built, and not a lot of new resources have been discovered or excavated for a variety of commodities.
In terms of oil, Rogers cites the fact that Saudi Arabia has not seen any new oil discoveries but has consistently said for the past two decades that its reserves are at 260 billion barrels (in which time it has sold 60 billion barrels). He also points out that farmers are a rapidly disappearing species. So to sum up―that’s a lot more people competing for diminishing resources (including the all-important energy and food). Basic supply and demand theory pretty much takes it from there.
“Commodities are the second-largest asset class in the world,” Rogers noted. And they are “the best anchor” for your portfolio, he adds.
Rogers says the typical life span of a commodities bull market is 18-20 years. We’re currently in year 11 right now. Yeah, it could end tomorrow, but that whole supply and demand imperative could also extend this bull beyond its typical time frame.
During the Q&A session, though, the conversation took a darker turn. One questioner asked if the increased competition for resources might lead to war, and Rogers allowed it was a possibility, though he hoped it would not come to that. He pointed out that when a rising power clashes with an established power, the result is usually war, and said that research consistently shows that resource shortages lead to war.
So, sure, commodities shortages might start World War III, but if you invest in the commodities themselves, you might at least be in decent financial shape when the shelling stops—and I’m not being flippant at all. War drives up the costs of commodities.
4. U.S. government bonds are the next big bubble
Well, would you lend money to us? Rogers says short-term bonds are probably OK, but he advises getting out of anything with a longer maturity. He calls it “inconceivable” that anyone would lend money to the U.S. for 30 years at the going rate, and notes that the U.S. was a creditor nation as recently as 1987.
“Now the U.S. is the largest debtor nation in the history of the world,” he said.
And for bond portfolio managers, he had some very pointed advice: “Get a new job.”
5. Protect yourself
The underlying theme of Rogers’ entire speech was that the world is changing, and here are some things you should know if you want to come out the better for it (and for your family members, clients, etc., to also come out the better for it) financially. Based on Rogers’ observations, it seems recognizing that change is a key step, but so is adapting to it (see advice regarding learning Mandarin, for example).
And in Rogers’ eyes, commodities are a good way to achieve this protection. No investment is certain of course, but right now, he thinks commodities look pretty darn good.
Best Comment Of The Night
Addressing one audience member’s question, Rogers asked if the young man were an MBA. The questioner admitted to holding an MBA and was promptly told he should swap his MBA for an agriculture degree from Texas A&M.
“You should become a farmer,” Rogers said.
That’s an old line for Rogers, but he added a new wrinkle. If you’re not going to become a farmer, you should open the first Lamborghini dealership in Iowa. Because with farmers closing in on extinction just as the world needs more food, that’s probably what they’ll be driving in a few years.
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This article has 131 comments:
English is the language of finance, international trade, technology, international travel and diplomacy. English is the universal language and even as the USA fades as a global force, English continues to spread because it is no longer the language of its original speakers and their descendants but the language by which ideas are propagated and capital is directed throughout the world; Why else do Chinese children learn English?
In the Global South(outside China and its immediate neighbors and former provinces), English( and in the Western Hemisphere, Spanish) will enable you to function, not Chinese.
Already, India is the largest English speaking Nation in the world and by 2025, the population of India will exceed that of China.
It is correct to be enthusiastic about China in the near to mid term(10 to 15 years) but not in the longer term. If US Govt and Agency debt is the proximate mega-bubble, then China is the next mega-bubble. Both will burst sequentially and spread great collateral damage but the world will survive both catastrophes. Whatever, the 21st Century may turn out to be, it is highly unlikely to be the Chinese century.
At the root of everything lies the question of whether the country's political structure is conducive to sustained growth. In the west, the classic pattern of development has been for economic change to stimulate demands for political reform and greater democracy. Fear of political change could hold China back; the top-down fiscal package exacerbated the fundamental weakness of the economy in expanding the role of state owned enterprises. The stimulus has rewarded many state owned enterprises and over the long run the role of SOE’s must be reduced while giving wider berth to small, privately held companies which will be more responsive to market changes and better incentivized to innovate.
The most immediate challenge is for China is to move from an export driven economy to a more balanced model in which domestic consumption plays a larger role that it does today. Relative lack of healthcare and the cost of a decent education mean that families save far more heavily than in the west, leaving them with less money left over at the end of the month to spend. China must extend upon its rudimentary social safety net and expand educations, pensions and health care
The very large demographic issue confronting China is interesting and unusual in that it is experiencing the problems of both a developing and developed country; high economic growth along with an aging population. Experts worry that China will become old before it becomes rich; Richard Jackson and Neil Howe wrote a report about demographic trends and they calculated that in 2004, the elderly—here defined as adults aged 60 and over—make up just 11 percent of the population. And by 2040, however, the United Nations projects that the share will rise to 28 percent, a larger elder share than it projects for the United States.
“In absolute numbers, the magnitude of China’s coming age wave is staggering. By 2040, assuming current demographic trends continue, there will be 397 million Chinese elderly people, which is more than the total current population of France, Germany, Italy, Japan, and the United Kingdom combined.” And Andy Xie is concerned that current demographic trends could worsen as a result of the property bubble with higher housing prices forcing many young couples to have fewer children. It is unclear how will address this issue but it is clear the government is worried about the cost of a western European-style welfare state.
Other challenges include the gap between living standards in the cities and in the countryside; the comparison between the wealth of the coastal strip and the poverty of the inland regions; the mismatch between the country's projected growth rate and its energy needs; and the need to improve the structure and regulation of its capital markets. In the longer term, Beijing has to decide how to use China's growing economic clout on the world stage and chart a course for developing its capital markets, including expanding the role of the Renminbi in global currency.
> Your grandchildren will be much better served learning English rather
> than Chinese.
>
> English is the language of finance, international trade, technology,
> international travel and diplomacy. English is the universal language
> and even as the USA fades as a global force, English continues to
> spread because it is no longer the language of its original speakers
> and their descendants but the language by which ideas are propagated
> and capital is directed throughout the world; Why else do Chinese
> children learn English?
>
> In the Global South(outside China and its immediate neighbors and
> former provinces), English( and in the Western Hemisphere, Spanish)
> will enable you to function, not Chinese.
>
> Already, India is the largest English speaking Nation in the world
> and by 2025, the population of India will exceed that of China.
>
>
> It is correct to be enthusiastic about China in the near to mid term(10
> to 15 years) but not in the longer term. If US Govt and Agency debt
> is the proximate mega-bubble, then China is the next mega-bubble.
> Both will burst sequentially and spread great collateral damage
> but the world will survive both catastrophes. Whatever, the 21st
> Century may turn out to be, it is highly unlikely to be the Chinese
> century.<
I don't mean to be condescending or snide or anything negative like that, but your comment sounds kind of like a screaming denial of a truth you don't want to hear.
Many of your points such as "English is the language of finance, international trade, technology, international travel and diplomacy" could be ammended to read "...ernational travel and diplomacy, FOR NOW"
I don't think the scope of what is happening has hit you yet. There's a change in hegemony occurring for the first time since the end of the second world war. At that time the country that held hegemony was England. They spoke English. Then hegemony was transferred to the United States, where they also speak English. But now for the first time in literally centuries, hegemony is being transferred to a country that is clearly and undoubtedly going to emerge as the leader of the world for the next few centuries. And they speak Chinese (Mandarin and Cantonese to be more precise).
This is a notion that makes English speaking nations and English speaking peoples (I'm one of them) quite uncomfortable. But the facts are undeniable. And when we consider the rather impressive historical facts about China (such as having domesticated and grown rice in their fields as early as 7500 b.c. and having domesticated dogs, sheep, chickens and ox around 5000-6000 b.c.) we have to recognize that this is an ancient culture of survivors... to say the least.
In my view, your comments are predicated on how you see the world today, without considering the enormity of what we are witnessing... that the change you fear IS coming. It will take many decades, so you and I won't have to learn to speak Chinese, but our grandchildren would be well served to learn. If you just pretended (try to imagine it) that right now you were capable of speaking perfect Mandarin, I'm certain you'd feel somehow safer and to a certain extent empowered. I know I would. That's what Jim Rogers is doing.
Unless I live to be 120, my life is half over and in my lifetime I've met a lot of Chinese who've moved to Canada from either Hong Kong or mainland China. And this might surprise a lot of people, but when you get to know these people, if you do them the tiniest of favors, or if you say "hello" in Chinese, they just light up like a Christmas tree. They're friendly, funny and loving people just like we are. Having said that, I don't know from experience how I would be treated in China, but according to one Chinese lady from the mainland, I would be treated just fine.
I don't buy your argument that if the USA bubble pops, the China bubble will pop the next century. If the Rothschilds set up their cabal in China, then yes, I'd agree with you. But to be quite honest, I have no doubt that the Chinese are far, far more shrewd than any of the dirty banksters that have ruined the western world are prepared for. Believe me, I'm not a fan of this notion, but my view is that 500 years from now China will still be ruling the world.
The Us Dollar is going down a great deal like the British pound which has lost 90% of it's value ...Jim Rogers on Reuters 09 Oct 2009
Legendary investor Jim Rogers chairman of Rogers holdings told Reuters that despite the U.S. government's policy of a strong dollar, it's trying to debase the dollar even further.
U.S. dollar making new lows Gold going to the roof
"If we are going to continue to debase it, the dollar is going to go down a great deal." He says.
Watch the Interview in the link bellow :
jimrogers1.blogspot.co...
www.JimRogers.Tk
More on Jim Rogers can be found here :
jimrogers1.blogspot.com
www.JimRogers.Tk
Remember we used to say that the 21st century belong to Japan. Japanese economy peaked in 1998 and has been on the slippery slope since then. China should be careful in accepting that title. It is a western trick. They are trying to set you up for something, such as beat you down with protectionism.
Forget it. The die is cast in the direction of English as the new lingua franca. (PBS did a series on the trend awhile ago.) The rest of the world isn't going to reverse course and learn a tonal-based, ideographic language that has a very limited global footprint.
The great contribution China could make would be to call for the rationalization of English spelling, whose irregularity is a stumbling block to most foreigners and leads them into making comical mispronunciations, which must gall them. (Sometimes the question is asked, "Why do they hate us?" The answer in part is the memory of the agony they went and go through through to avoid making a misstep in English spelling and pronunciation.) I'm sure that if China were to submit a spelling reform proposal to the UN, the Third World countries would get behind it at warp speed. It's an avalanche waiting to happen. I hope Jim Rogers uses his influence to nudge China in this direction.
Of course, full rationalization is impossible, because it would take us too far from what we are familiar with, and because there would be conflicts among some of the reforms. But it's absurd to say that English couldn't be significantly cleaned up, or that an imperfect reform is worse than doing nothing.
It wouldn't be that hard for us to adapt, because our spell checkers could automatically "correct" most of our current spellings. As for the ones they couldn't catch, that's the price of progress and international amity. Our children will thank China for making language-learning easier.
> ""English is the language of finance, international trade, technology,
> international travel and diplomacy" could be ammended to read "...ernational travel and diplomacy, FOR NOW""<
> Forget it. The die is cast in the direction of English as the new
> lingua franca. (PBS did a series on the trend awhile ago.) The rest
> of the world isn't going to reverse course and learn a tonal-based,
> ideographic language that has a very limited global footprint. <
I hope you're right Roger because 500 years from now, I'd still prefer to be speaking English.
> The great contribution China could make would be to call for the rationalization of English spelling, whose irregularity is a stumbling block to most foreigners and leads them into making comical mispronunciations, which must gall them. Sometimes the question is asked, "Why do they hate us?" The answer in part is the memory of the agony they went and go through through to avoid making a misstep in English spelling and pronunciation.)<
LOL! And you, the king of "one-letter malaprops" aren't helping much. Here are a few more to add to your library: Dancing With The Scars, bite the billet, blow your own strumpet.
If your business is concentrated in the Pacific Rim, facility in Chinese can smooth communications and may help cement commercial relationships. But, once your product or service integrates into the broader world markets, English takes top billing. Moreover, just because you speak the local language, don't expect to negotiate a better deal than your non-Chinese speaking counterparts. Sure, language may help secure a few minor concessions , but that skill, without more, won't merit an upper hand at the bargaining table.
As for encouraging students to learn Chinese, I say, go to it. But, they should study the language for a deeper appreciation of one of the world's great civilizations-not employment. Companies hire people for business skills like those found in IT or an MBA program. If language enters the equation ( generally quite rare ), it is a secondary concern. An exception would be hiring a translator. And unless you're connected,
a law degree will price you right out of the China corporate market. ( Personal experience on all counts).
2. The personal computer and internet boom has spawned the popularity of English in Asia.
3. India and other (previous) English colonies use English to cross internal dialect problems.
4. Mandarin will not do you or your off-spring any harm, and it might even let you sell something to a billion+ people, correcting your trade imbalance, our Aus prime minister is the first western leader to intentionally learn and speak mandarin (i know of).
5. Rogers is right, to an extent, but do I think the US is dead? NO WAY! It just needs currency pegging removed (China), to stop paying for everyone's defence (Especially NATO), and a decent energy policy, so it doesn't get flattened everytime there's oil spikes (Middle East).
Buffet 'America's best years are in front of it', I beleive America's innovation will save it and the rest of us, it just needs to be more selfish for a while.
To those certain blogger, please be open minded. While English is and will be the primary language being utilize in the financial world in the distant future. It does not preclude another language from emerging to become "the one" in the future. Likewise, no one in Detroit would have thought Toyota will overtake GM in 2008, it was the unthinkable just a decade ago. Besides, I can comfortably say that most or our electronics are either Japanese or Korean brands that are made in China these days.
Those that predict China will become the sole superpower are wrong unless of course there is a very significant war that China wins. I am not sure if there is such thing as victory in wars between big countries anymore however.
Of course China has given a glowing example on how a developing country can develop financially and economically. So lets be clear that other countries like Brazil are going to also over time develop and take away the acceleration of financial gain and power from China as well.
I think though that globalisation will contract significantly and domestic agendas will trump idealogical free trade trade actions. So even if China develops its power base, it will only benefit them domestically. Protectionism will see that power corridors are created. China may be able to make inroads in countries such as Africa and poorer asian countries. In order to develop technology and acquire resources. But I doubt they will be able to develop new markets to sell their goods. And certainly will lose open access to European, Indian, and USA markets.
Those that think China can achieve its imperial goals probably do not understand the enormity of its internal problems.
On Oct 11 12:43 PM huangthomas wrote:
> Learning Chinese means Chinese as the first foreign language, which
> has been shifting from French, German, and Japanese. All students
> should master the English first. Do you know close to 30% of our
> high school graduates can't write or read English?
>
> Remember we used to say that the 21st century belong to Japan. Japanese
> economy peaked in 1998 and has been on the slippery slope since then.
> China should be careful in accepting that title. It is a western
> trick. They are trying to set you up for something, such as beat
> you down with protectionism.
It seems everyone here is forgetting the essentials of life: air, water, food. The way humans are destroying everything on this planet, no country will have power in the next century since the whole human race will be extinct and the few surviving animals species will have free run of the whole place.
The roadblock to China's dominance could be internal dissent and a revolution in China as more and more Chinese see just how corrupt and brutal the government is. Knowledge is power. The government is frightened of a 'peoples' uprising' and uses military force to clamp down. As information gets spread more and more throughout China using technology this knowledge becomes an ever greater threat, especially if there are millions of restless Chinese who see prosperity has passed them by and benefiting only a few. This has already started happening.
The new Amerikan Ekonomy we are witnessing right now does not bode well for the USA going forward and we will see an acceleration of what has been occurring since the mid 70s when the middle class started experiencing its first downward trend after rising since the end of WWII. The only thing that has kept the middle class from falling has been the Dinc's - dual income families.
But hey, what the hell do I know? I don't have an MBA!!!!
So too for India, and many other nations that speak english, a result of the trade provided by the British navy and sea trade. Trade drove the use of language. Chinese trade is beginning to dominate now.
Regards,
Tom C
On Oct 11 09:50 AM User 353732 wrote:
> Your grandchildren will be much better served learning English rather
> than Chinese.
>
> English is the language of finance, international trade, technology,
> international travel and diplomacy. English is the universal language
> and even as the USA fades as a global force, English continues to
> spread because it is no longer the language of its original speakers
> and their descendants but the language by which ideas are propagated
> and capital is directed throughout the world; Why else do Chinese
> children learn English?
>
> In the Global South(outside China and its immediate neighbors and
> former provinces), English( and in the Western Hemisphere, Spanish)
> will enable you to function, not Chinese.
>
> Already, India is the largest English speaking Nation in the world
> and by 2025, the population of India will exceed that of China.
>
>
> It is correct to be enthusiastic about China in the near to mid term(10
> to 15 years) but not in the longer term. If US Govt and Agency debt
> is the proximate mega-bubble, then China is the next mega-bubble.
> Both will burst sequentially and spread great collateral damage
> but the world will survive both catastrophes. Whatever, the 21st
> Century may turn out to be, it is highly unlikely to be the Chinese
> century.
Anyway, send the following to the great Mr Jim. I'm going to give a brilliant talk in Italy next week, and I'd love to see him in the front row.
On top of that (on the low end), we have huge pool of low cost labor just across the border, in Mexico, and in border states, like Texas, California, Arizona. Except we choose to regard our neighbors as some kind of threat instead of a possible means of doing more manufacturing HERE IN THE US and improving balance of trade.
I am bullish on China for the time-frames pertinent to my investment perspectives, in part because they have the financial resources to overcome the inefficiencies of a transition period and the inefficiencies that stem from central planning. But I am equally confident that a centrally-planned economy with China's demographics will eventually run into serious trouble.
I am bearish on the US because we have sold off so much of our future production in an orgy of instant gratification, while at the same time moving in directions politically that are guaranteed to stifle the investment and innovation that have made us great. A young generation of Asians is hungry for the living standards that our young people take for granted as their rightful inheritance, a fact displayed quite clearly in any American classroom where Asian students are present.
As for the prevailing language of the future, our kids and grandkids are busy "rationalizing" English through texting, throwing out such rules as punctuation and spelling because the thought required to follow such rules gets in the way of speed.
I managed to find happiness in a world where many people were building bomb shelters. I'm determined to do the same for as long as I can survive an even uglier and more threatening world order.
It appears that those who question Mr Roger's wisdom in counseling the learning of the Chinese, do not realize that Jim was speaking to an English speaking audience. I suggest that he was offering the suggestion to those whose children already do, or will, speak in English, and that the suggestion was to supplement that learning with more; an additional ability/skill. That counsel is wise.
SpyBoy
Well, it's likely that the politicians and citizens of most historic superpowers thought exactly that. It's hard for people to be humble, to not confuse 'being lucky' with 'being good.'
Please don't write that America's been good, not lucky. We've been incredibly lucky. Most luck having to do with resources, then being made up by survivors...people who were bright enough to leave and bright enough to figure out how to prosper, or people who were constitutionally and emotionally strong enough to survive their shipment from their mother land.
Assuming a nation has resources, a nation's greatness is a process and a reflection of its cultural ideal.
Death to the dream of greatness comes when the cultural ideal becomes the Albatross rather than the hen that lays the golden egg.
Rome =ed organization: Died when they couldn't.
Britain =ed organization: Like who they learned it from.
Japan =ed correctness: Died when what they did, wasn't.
America =ed cowboy loaner who can do anything: Died tryingto do everything
China =s the Middle Kingdom located between heaven and earth. It will die when it comes crashing to earth because it thought it was closer to heaven than it was actually.
The latter will be more clear in a hundred years or so.
Meanwhile, I'm investing in EMs for the long haul, as well as in in topflight Italian, British, Japanese and American companies, and in PMs.
If you want to get where you want to go financially, remember that luck will get you there after you have placed yourself in the position to be lucky by your hard work of getting good.
Commodities are RANGE BOUND, they aren't owned like stocks & bonds, I spent over 19yrs on Wall St., the last 9yrs completely into the Futures markets. When I managed a company portfolio to huge profits in the early '80's, I was essentially short the markets, that got me better job opps & I became something of a legend in my own time, but by NOT using fundamental reasoning alone, w/o TA timing, you're kidding yourself if you think you can outtrade the Commercials.
Nice meeting you this way, I'm going to follow you for awhile, maybe you'll impress the heck out of me, ROFL!
China does NOT play by any rules but their own! They manipulate and float their own currency to keep it low so as to maintain their balance of payment for exports! Their employment picture is not rosy either! Because many Americans lost their jobs, there are fewer consumers to purchase their products which means more Chinese getting their pink slips from their factories! China has also been guilty of "unfair trade practices" by unlawful dumping of their steel products and other products shipped to America! As unemployment becomes more deeply entrenched in our economy, so to, will the number of Chinese getting their pink slips from the factories because there are fewer and fewer American consumers unwilling to make the purchases that they used to make prior to this recession! Look at Japan's economic stagflation! A country far less in population of that of China; yet, they are experiencing a continuous stagflation/inflation for over ten years! If this is happening to Japan, who has a better capitalistic base, mega-corporations etc. then China; How can ANYONE predict that China will be the NEXT superpower! This Recession is more like a Depression, a Depression like no one else saw or experienced before! If you think the housing market and then the commericial market crash is bad......then, WAIT to the commodity Derivatives Markets hits the fan! It is NOT only the US and its investors but also China who owns a great deal of American stocks, bonds, real estate, and DERIVATIVES! I can just bet you that the "risk taking" of the Chinese Government is just as great, if not greater, than the "died-in-the-wool" followers/investors of Wall Street in the US! Look around! There is NOT one country within Europe who has NOT escaped the Wall Street debacle, because, the European banks/bankers have and are experiencing the same/similar problems of the US! Every country in Europe is NOW trying to protect their currency which ultimately means that the Euro is showing "cracks" with regards to a "Unified Europe!" Greece, Portugal, Spain, and Iceland are near levels of bankruptcy! According to past history, When national interests are threatened, either internally, or externally, nationalism raises its ugly head!
No, don't look at ANY country as being a "superpower" because there will be too many problems withi EVERY country, including China, with the problems that face every country that utilizes a FIAT MONETARY SYSTEM!
If we can some how elect leadership that can set national goals for worldwide dominance through excellence in education we can once again return to the great power we were after WWII.
We have to get away from this current notion that the government is our caretaker from the cradle to the grave. In two generations we went from a nation of hard working WWII vetran workers to a nation of couch potatoes and government leaches.
We have enough land to feed ourselves for the next 100 years yet we can't find people willing to work hard enough to farm the land. Young farmers want to leave the farm and head for the city. We can not let this continue.
We have all the resources we need but we lack the resolve. That is where leadership comes in. We need a President and congress that can restore our greatness by reducing the size and control of government.
If you were born anytime before 1980 you know what I mean. We had a leader that once said "Government is not the solution, Government is the problem". He made us feel good about ourselves and he brought down the wall by practicing peace through strength. Lets hope we can find another one like him; our great future is dependent on it.
Our poor have tv, cell phones, cars, houses with electricity, plumbing and fresh running water. China is a long way off from achieving the level of the poorest amoung us. We don't need to fear China we need to make China and India our #1 customers.
It is time to stop our whinning and get to work. After all, the rest of the world wants to be like us so why do we want to lower ourselves to be like the rest of the world. The whole situation just makes me want to barf.
1) I have followed Jim Rogers advice throughout the decade for both myself and my clients - we are up about 200%.
2) Most foreign people I have come into contact with on my overseas travels speak at least several languages. The only people around the globe who seem to speak only one language are arrogant Americans.
The problem with America is that it does not know from whence it came. They do not know what caused their wealth. And today their best and brighest is spending all their efforts trying to create wealth out of thin air through the manipulation of paper. They waste time with the creation of crap like SPIDERS, ETF, DERIVITIVES and all kind of other paper concoction which does not cause another blade of grass to grow anywhere.
America is to get back to basics. Mobelize MONEY to MAKE THINGS (not money) MAKE THINGS and money will come.
Perhaps by becoming an importing economy from North America. If you want to talk long cycles, then think ahead. Water, soil and sunlight are what will always be valuable. A slow down in population (already negative this year), better use of water resources with wind energy to pump it around, and the U.S. could reverse the current direction. Of course, we have to reverse the anti-manual/rural labor prejudices that we harbor and stop the Obama welfare wagon. Oh, never mind.
On Oct 12 10:13 AM Did U Think The Ponzi Scheme Would Last? wrote:
> Good luck with China. They do not have any money to spend on their
> own products. Americans have been overpaid for years and thus still
> have gobs of money compared to Chinese. As Americans greatly reduce
> their consumption in line with the boomers retiring, how is China
> going to prosper? They have taken out a bunch of loans to build mega
> capacity for demand that is drying up. China as a nation is in serious
> trouble. If you want to know what is going on in China, listen to
> Hugh Hendry who wants nothing to do with them as deflation takes
> hold.
Dude; what virtual world do you live in? "Cash value" insurance(now being pimped as some form of annuity) allows "paper pushers" to take your bucks and invest them in the latest financial "soup-de-jour", giving you peanuts in return.
Admittedly, most of Wall Street (and all world markets for that matter) are set up like Las Vegas: but winners do emerge. Know when to hold 'em; know when to fold 'em.
But no markets are as bad as the gov't Ponzi scheme that we're now left with; wherein everybody gets a short-term handout (entitlements in all forms) and we all loose in the end...$100 trillion of unfunded debt, and national bankruptcy looming.
Or better yet, shove everything into some "cash(-less) value" life insurance. Yeah, the insurance company will take your money and "make something".... you broker and dumber!
English benefits from the "network effect": The more people that use it, the more valuable it becomes to everyone who does use it, making it more attractive to join the party. English passed the network-effect tipping point decades ago and is spreading wildly in a self-sustaining, unstoppable dynamic.
English is much easier than Chinese or other languages to learn, pronounce, understand, and write. (No genders and accent marks, for instance.) China hasn't even managed to unify the languages spoken by its own population (although many of the elite everywhere have some knowledge of Mandarin), so the benefit of learning Mandarin is limited.
In modern times, few people have learnt the languages of their major trading partners except the tiny percentage engaged in international trade. There's been no need to learn Japanese, for instance, just because we've been buying their cars and gadgets for decades. If China doubles its share of our trade, it similarly wouldn't provide an incentive for more than 1% of our population to learn Chinese, any more than our trade with Japan motivated us as a whole to learn Japanese.
Don't you people recognize hyperbole when you see it? (Actually, it's probably not true hyperbole, but I'm too lazy to look up the name for this type of exaggerated speech, especially when I know somebody will readily point out its name to me, plus how dumb I am not to remember it.)
Same thing with:
Addressing one audience member’s question, Rogers asked if the young man were an MBA. The questioner admitted to holding an MBA and was promptly told he should swap his MBA for an agriculture degree from Texas A&M.
“You should become a farmer,” Rogers said.
I don't see anyone denying this particular exaggerated statement so I guess this means that everyone agrees with it--otherwise there would be a whole slew of comments denigrating this statement too.
Maybe the best advice is not to learn Chinese but to load up on commodities for the long run. Especially for those of us with more cash than active brain cells.
Guess what? The Mayan Calendar predicted this "shift to the East" of "global energy"..(power, wealth and influence) a couple thousand years back...to occur, get this - at this very point in time. Winter, 2012 is the tipping point of the ppwer shift from West to the East...
Pondr that.
For those who do not know, or have not considered one fact is that about 85 to 87 mbpd of oil are consumed worldwide every day, and we, right here in the United States use about 20 to 25 percent of that oil. As BIC countries grow they will consume more and will pay more than we can for the product. Remember we have only about 300 million people so something has to give.
It's made up of two English words that you use every day: "knee" and "how"
Put them together and say it very quickly, kind of staccato like: "kneehow"
Say it staccato with emphasis on the last syllable "how" and you'll have it nailed. Then if you add another word "ma" as if you're calling your mama, then you've added a degree of respect or formality. So that would be "knee-how-ma".
Now some real Chinese speaker is going to come on here and correct me, telling me that I accidentally taught all of you how to say "your ear is on fire".
Rogers tells us to sell everything and buy a farm and work the land .
The future may well be cavemen raiding farms for food ...
WOW thats a future worth looking forward to ..
Thankfully neither Rogers no Prechter have any hold on the future
a) Why isn't corruption in China discussed more often? This adds to the cost of doing business and is an economic burden. I know we have trouble with insider trading here in the US. Is it more or less of an issue in China?
b) The artificial Chinese currency peg to the dollar. While if the US were to protect the dollar indirectly vis-a-vis tariffs, people take exception to our protectionism/
c) Why do US right wing investor crazies praise what is basically a command economy?
d) When Bejing is uses government companies to prop up its demand side and Bejing banks flood businesses with credit, its an economic miracle while if Obama even remotely does this in the US, its socialism?
e) Why doesn't anyone mention the hundreds of years of US natural gas reserves when the energy crazies go off their meds?
f) Where were the econ-nazis when the republicans were draining the US balance sheet by raising spending and lowering revenues? I'm sure you would have complained somewhere if some LBO engineer would have been looting the balance of some staid company.
joeshareholder.blogspo...
On Oct 11 01:03 PM Roger Knights wrote:
> ""English is the language of finance, international trade, technology,
> international travel and diplomacy" could be ammended to read "...ernational
> travel and diplomacy, FOR NOW""
>
> Forget it. The die is cast in the direction of English as the new
> lingua franca. (PBS did a series on the trend awhile ago.) The rest
> of the world isn't going to reverse course and learn a tonal-based,
> ideographic language that has a very limited global footprint. <br/>
>
> The great contribution China could make would be to call for the
> rationalization of English spelling, whose irregularity is a stumbling
> block to most foreigners and leads them into making comical mispronunciations,
> which must gall them. (Sometimes the question is asked, "Why do they
> hate us?" The answer in part is the memory of the agony they went
> and go through through to avoid making a misstep in English spelling
> and pronunciation.) I'm sure that if China were to submit a spelling
> reform proposal to the UN, the Third World countries would get behind
> it at warp speed. It's an avalanche waiting to happen. I hope Jim
> Rogers uses his influence to nudge China in this direction.
>
> Of course, full rationalization is impossible, because it would take
> us too far from what we are familiar with, and because there would
> be conflicts among some of the reforms. But it's absurd to say that
> English couldn't be significantly cleaned up, or that an imperfect
> reform is worse than doing nothing.
>
> It wouldn't be that hard for us to adapt, because our spell checkers
> could automatically "correct" most of our current spellings. As for
> the ones they couldn't catch, that's the price of progress and international
> amity. Our children will thank China for making language-learning
> easier.
At the the turn of the century, Britain was the world's leading economic power. Beginning in the 1930's - 1940's - America took up the mantel. China is clearly vying for the new title.
While I think China will come to global economics, English is still the international language of business and the language of the internet.
Saying "we all need to learn Mandarin" is silly.
Good article
*Studying Chinese is time-intensive: memorizing characters is difficult, and you'll need to know tens of thousands to read a newspaper. As far as speaking, you need to get the tones right: if you don't, you'll look ridiculous; worse, you risk insulting someone. Achieving meaningful fluency in Chinese is a matter of years. Accordingly, in a world of scarce resources (time), I'd opt to study sciences, math (maybe the only universal language), engineering, etc., and perhaps learn just enough Chinese to get around.
*With all due respect to Jim Rogers, I think he may be excessively bullish with his prognostications of Chinese global dominance, as well as his views on oil. China's growth story will evolve differently than ours: how interesting that at the same time it is modernizing, the demographics (especially aging of the population) are playing out more somberly. How will the savings vs. spending dynamic play out? Vibrant markets need a relatively high proportion of young people. As far as commodities are concerned, it seems entirely reasonable to be bullish about agriculture; however, a case can be made (and is being made by some analysts) that the next oil price spike will be the last, as it will ensure a switch to cheaper energy sources as well as alternative fuel technologies.
*Investing in China for those of us living elsewhere will be "interesting," and certainly no slam-dunk. Did any of us see this coming: "Several of China's online video game stocks suffered big losses Monday after Beijing announced investment restrictions on foreign corporations trying to get in on this lucrative industry." (From today's Investor's Business Daily)
Talk about which country will achieve/lose dominance brings to mind the difficulty of being an alpha dog: there is only one way to go, and it isn't much fun, really, to have to defend one's position all the time.
Thanks for the article.
On Oct 11 09:51 PM New Reader wrote:
> You can take it from a westerner who has been heavily invested in
> Asia ( ex Japan) since 1991-1992, received an M.A. in East Asian
> Studies shortly after Nixon returned from Beijing and is near- fluent
> in spoken Mandarin: English is, and will remain, 'the' premier language
> of commerce and diplomacy. Chinese will be a very important, but
> not the exclusive language of Pacific Rim regional trade.
>
> If your business is concentrated in the Pacific Rim, facility in
> Chinese can smooth communications and may help cement commercial
> relationships. But, once your product or service integrates into
> the broader world markets, English takes top billing. Moreover, just
> because you speak the local language, don't expect to negotiate a
> better deal than your non-Chinese speaking counterparts. Sure, language
> may help secure a few minor concessions , but that skill, without
> more, won't merit an upper hand at the bargaining table.
>
> As for encouraging students to learn Chinese, I say, go to it. But,
> they should study the language for a deeper appreciation of one of
> the world's great civilizations-not employment. Companies hire people
> for business skills like those found in IT or an MBA program. If
> language enters the equation ( generally quite rare ), it is a secondary
> concern. An exception would be hiring a translator. And unless you're
> connected,
> a law degree will price you right out of the China corporate market.
> ( Personal experience on all counts).
On Oct 12 11:13 AM bobbobwhite wrote:
> I have read all of Jim Roger's books and wrtings and can say that
> all of what he says is founded in self absorbtion and is thus self
> serving. Not to say that he is totally wrong here or in anything
> he writes, but always know that he writes for his own benefit, not
> yours, even though the two may intertwine. But certainly not always,
> so be careful and do your own homework. He is a media star with quirky
> personal gimmicks in the general mold of Jim Cramer, and those types
> should ALWAYS be suspect.
At the end of the day, there's going to be a showdown between the successful capitalism that is taking root and the authoritarian, Communist government.
As for world war, I agree with Rogers. Like Rogers says, the Chinese problem is water. A few dams being blown to bits would be the end of there fledgling empire. Americans have more to fear from there own leadership right now then the Chinese.
If I am an investor in China I have to be concerned about what the Communist government would do if the shooting started. Geopolitical risk must now be factored in, no different then advice to watch Washington a couple of years back for domestic investing.
I am not a fan of political economies but they seem to run in tandem with 18 year depression level events. Martin Armstrong seems to be onto such cycles better then anyone else but there are other technical and historic data points of reference regarding cyclical behavior risks as well.
I would say in regards to a suggestion not driven from fear but in preparation would come from Benjamin Franklin who once said "It is better to have it and not need it and need it and not have it."
On Oct 11 09:50 AM User 353732 wrote:
> Your grandchildren will be much better served learning English rather
> than Chinese.
>
> English is the language of finance, international trade, technology,
> international travel and diplomacy. English is the universal language
> and even as the USA fades as a global force, English continues to
> spread because it is no longer the language of its original speakers
> and their descendants but the language by which ideas are propagated
> and capital is directed throughout the world; Why else do Chinese
> children learn English?
>
> In the Global South(outside China and its immediate neighbors and
> former provinces), English( and in the Western Hemisphere, Spanish)
> will enable you to function, not Chinese.
>
> Already, India is the largest English speaking Nation in the world
> and by 2025, the population of India will exceed that of China.
>
>
> It is correct to be enthusiastic about China in the near to mid term(10
> to 15 years) but not in the longer term. If US Govt and Agency debt
> is the proximate mega-bubble, then China is the next mega-bubble.
> Both will burst sequentially and spread great collateral damage but
> the world will survive both catastrophes. Whatever, the 21st Century
> may turn out to be, it is highly unlikely to be the Chinese century.
On Oct 12 02:03 AM GMak wrote:
> Although China is a growing power in the 21st Century and it may
> even have an opportunity to overtake US decades down the line. That
> particular threat does not give any person the right to be racist
> and talking down on the languages to be spoken (whether in finance
> or anything else.) **Not a sentence** For instance, Neither Alexander the Great nor
> Genghis Khan speak **spoke** English as their first language. But I am sure
> their "financial heads" have **had** to speak a language or two in order
> to manage the lands and countries they occupied.
>
> To those certain blogger, please be open minded. While English is
> and will be the primary language being utilize **utilized** in the financial world
> in the distant future.**Not a sentence** It does not preclude another language from
> emerging to become "the one" in the future. Likewise, no one in Detroit
> would have thought Toyota will **would** overtake GM in 2008, it was the unthinkable
> just a decade ago. Besides, I can comfortably say that most or our
> electronics are either Japanese or Korean brands that are made in
> China these days.
Before you put me into the 'I can't accept reality camp' my views of reality for the next twelve years are of a much grimmer view of most. Because history does rythm, it is likely there will be world war. All cities being leveled would not mean a Chinese or American anything. It would likely mean an end to how mankind views international monetary peg prizes and the values of such. I do not wish for such to occur or root for mayhem. It has just been the nature of our societal evolution.
I am not playing with the titans as they create a world that needs rebuilding. If you takes sides with the titans East or West you will become fodder for them. In the meantime, here's hoping for the best because I plan on dancing until the music stops and even then it would be a pause changing a new record on the disk.
On Oct 11 12:06 PM Albertarocks wrote:
> On Oct 11 09:50 AM User 353732 wrote:
On Oct 12 09:26 AM Ferdinand E. Banks wrote:
> I don't know much about Jim Rogers, but from what little I know I
> was able to accept that he is a smart man. After reading this piece
> however I am forced to conclude that he is not as smart as I thought
> that he was. He's probably a big bag of wind, but with a few good
> ideas.
>
> Anyway, send the following to the great Mr Jim. I'm going to give
> a brilliant talk in Italy next week, and I'd love to see him in the
> front row.
China has a long way to become the world financial power.
I have many years of first hand experience working with manufacturers in china. The number one flaw with Chinese is their slavery mentality of saying yes and agree to everything they are told. During my early years, I was very impressed with their speed of work and commitment to rapid delivery, but what they were delivering was a disaster. We had to start over to make them understand of our design and manufacturing intent.......
Below are the list of flaws with China
1. Slavery mentality
2. The rich get richer and the poor gets poorer
3. They work hard, but very inefficient
4. They steal and pirate any technology they can
5. Have no innovation of their own
6. The rich ones move to California (go to San Jose, and
San Francisco, as if you are in China!!!!!)
7. They are the biggest gamblers in the world (go to Vegas for proof)
8. The government is couple of century behind with their dictatorship mentality
9. They have billions of people still looking for $1 a day wage
10. Their main wealth is in dollar!!!!!!!!!!
They better spend all that dollar before it becomes worthless.......
> Before you put me into the 'I can't accept reality camp' my views
> of reality for the next twelve years are of a much grimmer view of
> most. Because history does rythm, it is likely there will be world
> war. All cities being leveled would not mean a Chinese or American
> anything. It would likely mean an end to how mankind views international
> monetary peg prizes and the values of such. I do not wish for such
> to occur or root for mayhem. It has just been the nature of our societal
> evolution.
I'd have no intention, nor any right to judge you and place you in one camp or the other, just because of your opinion. You have every right to your opinion, and this one is unfortunately not at all far fetched. I happen, sadly enough, to agree with you. The global elite (and I use that word with complete disdain... only to describe who I'm talking about) are dirty bastards who won't hesitate to thrust the world into the dark ages if it gives them more power and gold. It is estimated that the banking cabal (the Rothschild den of demons) owns 1/2 of the world's wealth already. They want it all, and they don't care what it costs the rest of humanity in their quest to steal it. That kind of behavior and mindset can only be described as Satanic.
If the current corrupted financial system is fixed, USA will remain as the Super Power.
Albertarocks, u just fell off the deep end...
> Only one comment, as he best stuff is already said. Yes, English
> dominates Asian commerce, but it is Asian English. While people
> bemoan the fact that so many American children cannot write real
> English, the strange texting shorthand is quite close to the way
> my Chinese friends write English. How r u? Our youth and theirs have
> little difficulty understanding each other.
> Albertarocks, u just fell off the deep end...
LOL! Sorry, 'bout that.
However waiting for these things to come to pass might be a bit like waiting for Godot.
Investor greed always moves at a much faster pace than the real world.
Remember Nasdaq 2000 ? Yes it's true the internet did change the world but its a process that has taken a decade....so far!.... Investors buying the so called 'new railroad stocks' got wiped out.
I fear the same will be true of china.
At the peak in 2007 the US consumer accounted for nearly 10.4 trillion dollars of spend. whilst India and China put together only mustered around 2.5 Trillion. Basic math shows just how much of a gap there is there, population numbers aside.
The US is quite literally light years ahead of China in its rule of law, corporate governance and its ability to enforce and uphold contracts. Don't expect an exodus from the United States any time soon.
Just wait till a Parmalat or Enron hits China.....and it will because whilst the chinese may be good at business they are also good at greedy.
As for the demise of the dollar that's unlikely given the worlds love of dollars, especially when they get scared (aka last year). The fact is with 4.5 trillion dollars in wobbly loans to eastern europe would you really rather hold the Euro? or The Pound? ( a busted flush)
Or yen? well possibly yen but intervention can't be too far away now.
So whilst Rogers might be right long term. Short term it might be better to buy dollars and sell chinese equities.
We cannot ignore Rogers comments -the problem with the US is we are far more fragile with our large consumer debt, massive structures built for gas powered vehicles, poor cities due to politics and the rise of our public sector workers to a centralized command economy.
China is the US of the 1940's- at times will make mistakes but the numbers are too big -tremondous work ethic and pride. Go back to the 1830 and China had Britain importing and taking all it's silver currency and together with India a large percentage of the worlds GDP. The last 50 years have been a hiccup. If you have a scenic home in a posh community learn Mandarin to close the sale in the next 10 years.
Since the American electorate now have great number of people who are disenfranchised, retired, or not working they vote people in who favor eradicating the volatility of the private sector at the expense of their currency and their next generations wealth- ala Europe -it makes sense to be involved in the commodities business like the Aussies,Canadiens, Norwegians-oil, Brazilians.
It will take us back to the 1810 economy with Britain and don't forget by then we will have the windmills to round out the scenery.
On Oct 14 08:52 AM relayer75 wrote:
> I think that improvements in language translation software over the
> next 20-30 are going to make the issue of English vs. Chinese vs.
> any other major language moot. We'll all have apps on our iPhones
> (or the iPhone's successors) that let us speak into the thing, and
> in real time the translation will come out of the speaker. We'll
> all basically be a bunch of walking 3CPO's; translation will not
> be a problem.
One point I do want to stress on however, is that one gateway to take advantage of this growth is commodities. The simple laws of supply and demand will dictate commodity prices for years to come, and with China and India both increasingly becoming consumer economies, demand will grow and supply will not be able to keep up resulting to greater prices.
Once their technology and military are sufficiently strong, they will be able to rule Asia and the Pacific and move into the Middle East.
If China goes on a war of conguest to feed it's people, there are few who could stop them without nukes.
As the US a free and diverse country evolves, why do people mistake that for decline?
Now we see the economic consequences. The greatest tragedy is that as we assault the very character of our founding fathers, as the courts reinterpret a Constitution which was unique in the world in preserving individual freedom, people like Mr. Rogers glorify the economic success of a country which still sells the organs of political prisoners on the black market, and crushes freedom of expression as in Tiennamin Square.
Even the uber liberal Google founder Sergei Brin turns a blind eye when it comes to doing business in China; freedom of information, the mantra of Google, is "relative" when the temptation of the Chinese market beckons. Hypocrisy reigns rampant.
This may not end well for the West; just look at the growth of the Chinese military. If China decided to seize Australia for its resources, would we come to the defense of the Aussies?
Really, you think we would?
Oh, I forgot, we have the U.N., and our President just won the Nobel Peace Prize.
I feel much better now.
What Mr. Rogers is saying/implying is that you should learn Mandarin as a second language. Reading what you wrote, you seem to confuse Indians and South East Asiana and Chinese in learning English as their primary languange.
Well my friend, we speak our native language fluently and we learn English as a second language since a very young age. We can communicate in both languages.
It is happening now. My friends from US working in China are now speaking Mandarin relatively fluent enough for work, party, and to throw a few lines to charm the ladies.
What Rogers is implying is not telling you to not speak or learn English, but you should learn Mandarin as a second language.
Well of course, you can choose to learn English as your native language, and then choose "again" to learn Engligh as your second language too.
The only way to profit is to look back in history and apply logics to project the future. Mr. Rogers has been able to master that skill thus he is the God Father of Investments.
I agree English will continue to be the most important lanagauge because the structure of the language itself is fundamentally a language that is easier to learn and speak. The Chinese language will be the second most important lanaguage as its global economic activities continues to increase, and as people from around the world wants to make some money with Chinese business, personal economic motives will lead them to learn it.
I would want to teach my kids to learn Chinese as a native language first because it is slightly harder to learn then English and then began to teach them English at the age of 5, followed by another language of their own choice. At least that is when I began learning English.
FYI, ideas are not always communicated in English in Asia, it is when we communicate with English people then we communicate in English. The only place where Engligh is a native language in Asia is Singapore.
Wake up pal.
On Oct 11 09:50 AM User 353732 wrote:
> Your grandchildren will be much better served learning English rather
> than Chinese.
>
> English is the language of finance, international trade, technology,
> international travel and diplomacy. English is the universal language
> and even as the USA fades as a global force, English continues to
> spread because it is no longer the language of its original speakers
> and their descendants but the language by which ideas are propagated
> and capital is directed throughout the world; Why else do Chinese
> children learn English?
>
> In the Global South(outside China and its immediate neighbors and
> former provinces), English( and in the Western Hemisphere, Spanish)
> will enable you to function, not Chinese.
>
> Already, India is the largest English speaking Nation in the world
> and by 2025, the population of India will exceed that of China.
>
>
> It is correct to be enthusiastic about China in the near to mid term(10
> to 15 years) but not in the longer term. If US Govt and Agency debt
> is the proximate mega-bubble, then China is the next mega-bubble.
> Both will burst sequentially and spread great collateral damage but
> the world will survive both catastrophes. Whatever, the 21st Century
> may turn out to be, it is highly unlikely to be the Chinese century.
I am a Chinese and I agree to most of your observations in regard about the average low education Chinese working people. They do have slave mentality. This has to do with the recent history of China being such a poor country and they way they were taught was to be "yes man".
Having said that, the yes man slavery mentality are the older generations, to be more precise, they are more like the Baby Boomers of China or perhaps a little also for some of the generation X.
But for the generation Y in Shanghai, Beijing, Shenzhen, they will discuss human rights to you if anybody try to abuse them.
For those of us who have had at least a college degree from overseas or in China, we are no "yes man"( my response to your post shows I am certainly no yes man). LOL.
In regard to the rich gets richer, the poor gets poorer, well that is the same as in most places( same in the US, no?). But relatively speaking, the number of Mcdonald eaters, and the number of Nike Air wearers in China must have increased by 100times over the past 10 years, thus the living standard despite widening rich/poor gap, is improving at a rapid speed.
In regard to the rich moving to the US, well it was mainly during late 90s and early to mid 2000s. We may consider buying a vacation house in Hawaii or an apartment in NY, but most of us prefer to stay in China because our childhood friends and family are still there, and we are making money here. Not to be rude, only fools will want to leave a place that is booming and have so much opportunities. It was in the late 90s and early 2000s that living in the US is much more comfortable and the variety of stuff that can be purchased is much more.
But now, in China, you can get Angus Rib Eye for dinner, Nike air shoes for basketball, Doublecheese Mcdees burger for quick lunch,
Ralph lauren polo shirt, basically everything is accesible.
Yes, the older generations did that and most of those who left have regrettrd because they have lost lots of entreprenerial opportunities that would have made them rich.
Your understanding of China is somewhat correct, but you are using Microsoft 2000 version, time to upgrade to Microsoft XP version my buddy.
Last but not least, yes some of them work very inefficiently. My secretary was relatively quite inefficient when she first started working for me, but after some training and she has improved alot. I understand your previous frustration with Chinese employees. Well, just like anywhere else, it takes a little bit of time.
On Oct 13 04:15 PM twitee wrote:
> Jim Rogers has a major investment in agricultural commodities, I
> don't blame him for appearing in so many interviews just to protect
> his investment at any cost!
>
> China has a long way to become the world financial power.
>
> I have many years of first hand experience working with manufacturers
> in china. The number one flaw with Chinese is their slavery mentality
> of saying yes and agree to everything they are told. During my early
> years, I was very impressed with their speed of work and commitment
> to rapid delivery, but what they were delivering was a disaster.
> We had to start over to make them understand of our design and manufacturing
> intent.......
>
> Below are the list of flaws with China
>
> 1. Slavery mentality
> 2. The rich get richer and the poor gets poorer
> 3. They work hard, but very inefficient
> 4. They steal and pirate any technology they can
> 5. Have no innovation of their own
> 6. The rich ones move to California (go to San Jose, and
> San Francisco, as if you are in China!!!!!)
> 7. They are the biggest gamblers in the world (go to Vegas for proof)
>
> 8. The government is couple of century behind with their dictatorship
> mentality
> 9. They have billions of people still looking for $1 a day wage<br/>10.
> Their main wealth is in dollar!!!!!!!!!!
>
> They better spend all that dollar before it becomes worthless.......
>
The whole key is in what kind of government one has
If we are capitalists then we agree that freedom is the most important, and worth fighting for
If they "out capitalist" us, then we will have internal strife
Its like the old "joke" the 2 guys in the tree having run from the chasing, mauling bear
Hey, why you going back down there, says the one to the other, you cant out run a bear
I dont have to out run the bear, I just have to out run YOU
Irrespective of which country will ultimately take the lead in trade and finance, China's commercial impact is unmistakable and a force to be reckoned with. There is no doubt that having some facility in Mandarin will give a much deeper and perhaps increasingly necessary appreciation of the world's most fascinating society.
As to education, we pointed our children first to technical disciplines and then to foreign languages . ( They studied Mandarin for four years ).I maintain students should not be lead astray into thinking that facility in a language other than English is a guarantor of meaningful corporate employment or success in business. To paraphrase an earlier post on this thread, keep your career plans close, and your tuition money closer.
谢谢大家，我了解你对中国 (tought) 更多。
> Thanks you all I learn more about your tought on China.
> 谢谢大家，我了解你对中国 (tought) 更多。
If your translator doesn't understand the word, it's "thought"
There is an old saying in China saying the higher you stand the further you can see beyond the horizon. Learning Chinese or not is everyone's personal choice and I don't think that's an important issue here. The more important question is if you can see the trend in a much longer term and broader view?
When we look back 100 years ago, China almost became another colony like India(no offense to Indian ppls here, it's the truth!) It's the darkest and weakest moment in the entire history of this country. You know how many problems China had 100 years ago. They are much much worse than the problems China are facing right now. But look at what had happened since then. China found its way back, although it's a very struggling and bumpy road.
You know why Chinese ppls can manage to achieve that?
It's the power of people, 1.5 fucking billion ppls' will and desire to live in a better life like what American live right now and perhaps in a much better standard down the road. This is the trend of world and no one and no one can stop it.
The then leader Sun Wen 100 years ago once said "The trend of world is enormous and formidable. Those who follows will thrive and those who don't will doom."
I am a believer of that line.
LucasX, one of fucking 1.5 billion Chinese
Long term interest rates are not controlled by Ben Bernanke or the fed, only short term rates are. The long term rates are set by the bond market and it should have priced in all what Jim Rogers has been saying for the last several years.
Stay balanced and focus for the long term: Both cash (i.e. bonds, CD's etc.) and precious metals (i.e. Gold, Platinum, gold ETF's, mining stocks etc.) have a place in the portfolio.
portfolioforlife.blogs...
wonder if this is what makes America great, the freedom to exchange ideas and views, without fear of reprisals or repercussions.
If you want to read 2 good books the first is Zachary Karabells new book about how China and the US have merged into one country in essence and it explains things in much better detail than the negative mr rogers
Jeremy Siegels book the future for investors covers the same demographics about China.Recently an advertisement was placed on my blog for a free copy.I personally paid for my copy and can tell you that while i do not agree with Siegel about somethings his arguements are always fact driven and very well done
Best to be a Mandarin-speaking hydrologist to take down the big money in China future.
Now its the Great China we're told we need to fear , as they parade there missel s in the square , reminds me of the 60s and 70s when Russia did the same thing , turned out they were All FAKE just empty vessels , Id bet good money that China s are Too ! No China a Not going to overtake us , We've stopped buying there mostly crummy and toxic products . Id say in 20 years or less China will be right back were they started , weaving baskets and straw hats and trying to export them .
Thats the Most likely outcome of that Paper Tiger !
On Oct 15 08:08 PM Dr. O wrote:
> Today is the top in the rally. S&P at 1100, DJIA 10,000. It's
> all priced in and all that's left is to sell the news. I will be
> liquidating the remainder of my portfolio tomorrow. I even sold GLD,
> SLV, and UDN. I believe the unwind of the massive rally will necessarily
> involve a higher US dollar, weaker commodities, and lower stocks.
On Oct 11 01:03 PM Roger Knights wrote:
> ""English is the language of finance, international trade, technology,
> international travel and diplomacy" could be ammended to read "...ernational
> travel and diplomacy, FOR NOW""
>
> Forget it. The die is cast in the direction of English as the new
> lingua franca. (PBS did a series on the trend awhile ago.) The rest
> of the world isn't going to reverse course and learn a tonal-based,
> ideographic language that has a very limited global footprint. <br/>
>
> The great contribution China could make would be to call for the
> rationalization of English spelling, whose irregularity is a stumbling
> block to most foreigners and leads them into making comical mispronunciations,
> which must gall them. (Sometimes the question is asked, "Why do they
> hate us?" The answer in part is the memory of the agony they went
> and go through through to avoid making a misstep in English spelling
> and pronunciation.) I'm sure that if China were to submit a spelling
> reform proposal to the UN, the Third World countries would get behind
> it at warp speed. It's an avalanche waiting to happen. I hope Jim
> Rogers uses his influence to nudge China in this direction.
>
> Of course, full rationalization is impossible, because it would take
> us too far from what we are familiar with, and because there would
> be conflicts among some of the reforms. But it's absurd to say that
> English couldn't be significantly cleaned up, or that an imperfect
> reform is worse than doing nothing.
>
> It wouldn't be that hard for us to adapt, because our spell checkers
> could automatically "correct" most of our current spellings. As for
> the ones they couldn't catch, that's the price of progress and international
> amity. Our children will thank China for making language-learning
> easier.
The next twenty or forty years? Possibly we will revert back to a basic lifestyle of "survival" in which the average American works very long hours for low pay (already happening...is it not?). We may be manufacturing the luxury items for the Chinese and other thriving economy countries. We may make them....but will not afford to purchase them. We may be sewing the cheap clothing that one can purchase at Walmart. Yes indeed, there may be a total reversal of consumer trends....we may be a "sweatshop" nation as China is today. The good news? Possibly the Chinese and other healthy economy countries will grow fat and lazy as we did. They will become accustomed to the "good life" and forget the basic rules of how the "good life" is achieved. They may put themselves in debt by ultimately needing credit to sustain a way of life they forgot about how it was achieved in the first place. Meanwhile, a generation or two of Americans will have died off so only a generation of deprivation exists. We will become a nation of frugality, hard work, and savers......aspiring to live the good life....and "earning" our way there. And so it goes.....a cycle that could be destined to repeat itself over and over until the earth's resources are exhausted.
Washington and it's citizens seem to refuse to "let go" of the "
good lif syndrome"....and will do anything to postpone the enevitable....only making what will come to pass a longer and more protracted event.....pushing that recovery generation farther out....and adding to the daily quota of cheap shirts and underwear each American worker will have to sew per day.
Mr. Roger's new neighborhood is now China...boys and girls....and maybe his great great grandchildren will move back to his old neighborhood....boys and girls?
The dollar has been declining in value for 60 years now taht is no shock
Large cap multinationals are a better way to hedge than commodities at the present levels unlike 10 years ago when rogers made his BIG HIT
Just want to add that US's urgent matters are:
1. the financial sector problems
2. the war on terrorists or extremists
3. the energy shortage and
4. the trade deficit
These are the main problems that are putting US's overall economy at risk and China is not the culprit, with exception possibly for the trade deficit item that at most be 50-50 accountable between US and China.
China is a partner with US in working out these matters, regardless of China becoming a super power or not. Learning Chinese is just one little item among many items, like learning Spanish is for having more fun and convenience to enjoy our south side neighbor.
> But now for the first time in literally centuries, hegemony is being transferred to a country that is clearly and undoubtedly going to emerge as the leader of the world for the next few centuries.
Yawn. That is exactly what was being said about Japan in the 1980s. Look where they are now. Give it 20 years and we'll be saying the same thing about India.
Doesn't Rogers have a conflict of interest yammering about the virtues of commodities all the time given that he owns one of the indexes? I don't disagree that commodities belong in a diversified portfolio, but only at about the 5% level. Just like everything else, commodities have a tendency to regularly crash and burn and its usually just when you need their diversification benefits the most.
China has land, resources, ports, and billions of people.
If China overcomes the conflict between agrarian and urban populations in terms of modernizing their agriculture and avoiding civil war while increasing literacy they will be in a similar position as America at the turn of the last century.
If China can hold hands with the Russians (they both have communist underpinnings derived from a peasant agrarian class) Europe, Asia, India, and the Middle East will be threatened.
On Oct 16 01:04 PM Skjellifetti wrote:
> On Oct 11 12:06 PM Albertarocks wrote:
The Western Empire may be temporarily bringing itself down in order to bring potential competitive threats in the East down with it? I'd be inclined to invest in USA when a bottom is reached. China, well, they're fledging capitalists and probably have much to learn. Learning comes from mistakes. On the other hand, the Goldsmiths have been at this "business" for around 400 years...so are way ahead in the game of "Monopoly."
In a recent seminar, prominent investing figure and commodities bull Jim Rogers, delivered his take on current world economic affairs and the role of commodities in our economic growth. Read on to find out what he said and how you can play it with exchange traded funds (ETFs).
Read : jimrogers1.blogspot.co...
Yup
Such a blunder seems strange from people who purport to be experts on China.
As far as it goes for China to become "the" economic power in the world, I must say I doubt it. What is happening right now in the US, is that works are becoming more and more service based. There is no need for physical work here anymore. That will be done in the East for a while, until they will reach our standards of living. By the time they will, workers will be robots, and the population of the world will be about half of where we're at now. So yes there will be a decimation of the worlds population. Cause when and how it will happen, that is the future's mystery.
As for Jim Rogers comment about telling an MBA holder to throw it away and go back to be a farmer, that is a dumb thing to say. There are people to be farmers, because they like doing that, and there are people to be scientists and business men and so on. So in case Jim Rogers advises those with MBA to go and become a farmer, I would like to ask him why doesn't he give up all his wealth and go back clean toilets for a living?! It is as simple as that. There are plenty of big-mouths out there, you know after war heroes.
When ever Jim Rogers and all these so called "big dogs" talk about something and advise you about something, I suggest you do the exact opposite, because these guy are opportunists and they'll do everything to misguide you, because they make money off of you that way!
> Today is the top in the rally. S&P at 1100, DJIA 10,000. It's
> all priced in and all that's left is to sell the news. I will be
> liquidating the remainder of my portfolio tomorrow. I even sold GLD,
> SLV, and UDN. I believe the unwind of the massive rally will necessarily
> involve a higher US dollar, weaker commodities, and lower stocks.
I second that... all of it!
On Oct 11 12:06 PM Albertarocks wrote:
> But now for the first time in literally centuries, hegemony is being transferred to a country that is clearly and undoubtedly going to emerge as the leader of the world for the next few centuries.<
>>Yawn. That is exactly what was being said about Japan in the 1980s. Look where they are now. Give it 20 years and we'll be saying the same thing about India.<<
You can't learn anything if you're constantly yawning in class.
Indeed it did look for quite a lot of years that Japan was going to be the next country to accept the mantle of hegemony... but a funny thing happened on the way to the forum. They did exactly the same thing that is happening in the USA right now... they refused to let their "too big to fail" banks collapse as they rightfully should have done, and instead they started printing yen like there was no tomorrow. That's the huge difference between the Japan of the 1980's and the China of today.
The real issue is which language it easiest to communicate with and understand. English is by far superior to any other language in the world.
The Chinese have to assume they understand each other and that is why we end up with so many inferior products and mistakes. My Chinese broker taught himself English by watching movies and the Chinese subtitles. Could you do that with any other language?
I strongly believe learning each others language can be an important step for friendship and world peace
On Oct 11 09:51 PM Past Tense lwewrote:
> 1. Gold goes up against the $US, but not (as much) against commodity
> currencies.
>
> 2. The personal computer and internet boom has spawned the popularity
> of English in Asia.
>
> 3. India and other (previous) English colonies use English to cross
> internal dialect problems.
>
> 4. Mandarin will not do you or your off-spring any harm, and it might
> even let you sell something to a billion+ people, correcting your
> trade imbalance, our Aus prime minister is the first western leader
> to intentionally learn and speak mandarin (i know of).
>
> 5. Rogers is right, to an extent, but do I think the US is dead?
> NO WAY! It just needs currency pegging removed (China), to stop paying
> for everyone's defence (Especially NATO), and a decent energy policy,
> so it doesn't get flattened everytime there's oil spikes (Middle
> East).
>
> Buffet 'America's best years are in front of it', I beleive America's
> innovation will save it and the rest of us, it just needs to be more
> selfish for a while.
a. selling arms to chinese leaders
b. selling western technology, not arms, to chinese
c. not waste billions of human hours learning
chinese but continue to use it for innovations
d. letting our bankrupt banks slowly but actually fail
which may include freddy and fannie
e. recognize that our kids are Not going to become monster
consumers because the mass media that created that has
been fractured by the internet.
f. inflation that will shrink fixed debt, such as student or
fixed housing debt.
g. finally learn not to listen to 'geniuses' that have a vested
interest in pumping and dumping.
h. all of the above
In many families where parents are fluent in more than one language, from birth, each parent speaks to the child in their separate language. The result is that young children, who absorb language easily and readily, grow up fluent in at least two languages. They are given this "gift" of learning a language-- but they never know it as anything but talking to Mom and Dad, because it is so natural. They benefit from it for a lifetime.
Software or translating devices can never replace personal interaction in a common language. A business person who can travel to China and speak with potential clients or partners in their language has the inside track. Imagine waiting for the interpreter to show up while a competitor chats it up with the client in his native language-- good luck
There is no downside to teaching your children more than one language. There are numerous benefits. On this matter, Jim Rogers has made the right call.
You decide which language is better suited to be the language of the financial markets.
First, China is not a free society. No matter what anyone says this issue is China's most fundamental problem. Free enterprise exists up to the point where central planners within China's government have a different view.
Second, do not underestimate the creative destruction of the American economy. More than most economies, the US can move in different directions faster than other large economic systems.
Third, consider predictions from a few years ago today. Most don't hold value. There are many world views and going against the common view...which is China is the emerging super-power in the world...may well look different in a few short years.
Fourth, Rogers predictions regarding commodities may well be accurate, and his investment views in a macro sense have proved out more times than not, but his political views are not as accurate.
If one talks about speaking "American" one would not think about Cherookee, Spanish or French or German or Italian, would you?
Relatively speaking, Roger is certainly a real expert in China as compared with many of those who call themselves expert. You got to give this guy credit, he is one of the very first who started investing in China since early 90s.
I have persoanlly met Rogers three times, and he is a very straight forward person. He does not favor China simply because he likes CHinese food or whatever, he favors China's business direction. If China reverses its business policies to a backward fashion, Rogers would be one of the first person to openly complain and mock the Chinese officials on bloomberg.
On Oct 17 10:23 AM Mafeking wrote:
> Actually there is no such language as 'Chinese'. Does Rogers mean
> Mandarin or Cantonese . Mandarin is most widely spoken, but Cantonese
> is most common in Southern China and HK.
>
> Such a blunder seems strange from people who purport to be experts
> on China.
What is happening now often reminds me about the computer game called Dune, where 3 different houses namely House Atredias ( back then it was conceived/implied to be either American or British), House Harkonan ( conceived/implied to be USSR) and House "something I forgot the name".
These three different countries competed for "Spice" which was the natural resources required for building all sorts of things. In the game, the nations built armies to fight in battle to control the Spice.
These days public/private sectors compete to get contrel of natural resources via their bulid up of capital. I pray to God that it will only be an arm wrestle via capital, but not war.
Given the historic treck record of who the US had done to the Native Americans to "educate them and liberalize them" then in recent history " again in the name to liberalize all those people suffering in Iraq"
Honestly, I do sometimes worry that someday in the future, a charlatan leader may lead the US and use another excuse via propaganda to fool all the citizens into have another excuse to liberalize another country.
It is not a bad idea to prepare myself a place in Australia, since it is one of the countries where ppl will have little excuse to liberalize it!
On Oct 19 11:18 AM Mad Hedge Fund Trader wrote:
> vhu Those of you searching for the “new normal” better take a close
> look at the China National Offshore Oil Company’s (seekingalpha.com/symbo...)
> efforts to top Exxon Mobil’s (seekingalpha.com/symbo...)
> $4 billion bid for development rights to a giant new field off West
> Africa. This is only the latest chapter in a global bidding war for
> essential resources they, and we need. Long gone is the day when
> the Standard Oil Company only needed to deliver King Saud a new Cadillac
> every year to assure rights to his kingdom’s oil supplies, even though
> it often had to be towed by teams of camels, as there was then no
> refining capacity yet on the peninsula. Decades later I was part
> of a swat team at Morgan Stanley who made sure the crude kept flowing
> and the cash surpluses recycled. Having grown up in the desert near
> Indio, California, I was the only one in the company who actually
> liked caravanning out into the desert to scoop up cooked rice with
> my fingers and guzzle illicit Johnny Walker Red, said to be smuggled
> in by a wayward member of the royal family. I never did get used
> to the sheep brains, though. But I digress. To the current generation
> of oil traders I might as well be talking about the Pax Romana than
> the Pax Americana, which is now equally ancient history. The hard
> truth is that they are out there bidding against the new 800 pound
> gorilla in the market, as are others for coal, iron ore, copper,
> gold, silver, wheat, corn, soybeans, and myriad other essentials.
> If you have any doubts about China’s acquisitive determination, look
> at the chart below showing that the Middle Kingdom’s outbound direct
> investment is about to outstrip inbound investment for the first
> time. For you and I, this means we can count on the price of everything
> to go up in the future, a lot. Keep food, commodity, and energy ETF’s
> permanently on your radar, like the PowerShares agricultural (seekingalpha.com/symbo...),
> the Rogers International Commodities (seekingalpha.com/symbo...),
> and the Oil Trust (seekingalpha.com/symbo...). Jim Rogers,
> are you listening?
1970-1983 4000% return
1983-1998 Enjoyed life alot after 13 years of consecutive 80-90hours week ( why not?)
1999-2009 The first person who openly saw the coming commodity trend.
2005 noted the housing bubble.
Mr. Roger is certainly better than only being able to "spot the long-term shift in civilization's center to Asia."
BTW I am Chinese and certainly I wish where I live will have prosperity and peace, but for the time being, I would not call it a long term trend yet, but merely a medium term trend.
If business policies gradually changes towards a backward fashion in Asia, and if people somehow gets lazy in Asia, the trend could easily move to somewhere else.
On Oct 19 07:53 AM Anthony Alfidi wrote:
> Chinese central bankers aren't Bernanke fans either. But Iowa farmers
> getting rich enough for exotic cars? That's a stretch if rising oil
> prices keep costs high for energy-intensive American agribusiness.
> BTW, Jim Rogers isn't any better than average on timing market swings.
> His value lies in spotting the long-term shift in civilization's
> center to Asia.
Unfortunately, they can't.
The US, with %5 of the world's population, requires about %25 of the world's energy to live as we do. China has about %18 of the world's population . . . there simply is no way that China can come anywhere near the US consumes.
US energy consumption (2006)
334 million BTU per capita
China energy consumption (2006)
56 million BTU per capita
Because of China's giant population even small increases in per capita energy consumption will crash into supply/price constraints.
Germany and China are exporter countries making your clients to speak you language is not a good idea.
a Chinese can learn English in 12 months, but you can expense years to learn Chinese
On Oct 11 12:06 PM Albertarocks wrote:
> On Oct 11 09:50 AM User 353732 wrote: