When Should Sirius XM Implement a Reverse Split? 105 comments
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By Brandon Matthews
For the last year, I have been outspoken in my belief that Sirius XM Radio (SIRI) should institute a reverse split that won a majority of its shareholders' approval last year, sooner rather than later. This remains a hot topic issue on the Satwaves Forum, and fear-mongering short sellers are using stock message boards to further create fear and doubt among investors. It’s time these myths were busted and the truth revealed.
It’s true that reverse splits are often a last resort for failing companies that have no revenue, high debt, little hope for future success and result in failure. This is not the case with Sirius XM. At .34 per share, the company was ranked 140 in NASDAQ listed stocks based on market cap. The low stock price is a result of many years of shareholder dilution through equity offerings and Liberty Capital’s (LCAPA) preferred stake, which has already been factored into the current stock price, even though for accounting purposes they are not. A reverse split will not affect market capitalization. In other words, the 140th rank company will remain the 140th ranked company. The price of Sirius XM shares is therefore misleading, and is due solely to its number of outstanding and potentially outstanding shares.
In fact, if the company had done a 10-for-1 reverse split earlier in the year at .30, SIRI would have been revalued at 3.00. The strength of the stock over the last 2 quarters would now have resulted in shares trading today at 5.61 and all doubt and fear and manipulative articles that misrepresent Sirius XM as facing delisting from the NASDAQ would never have occurred. Sirius XM would have also remained on the Russell indexes following its annual rebalancing, allowing for more index funds to purchase the equity, which may have resulted in SIRI shares trading substantially higher than current levels.
One argument by opponents seems to be statements from CEO Mel Karmazin that a reverse split would only be implemented to avoid delisting. Completely ignored is his statement that he and the board will do what is in the best interest of shareholders. As the window of opportunity for a reverse split to occur starts to close, the question becomes when it should be done rather than if. Waiting until March will mean 6 more months of negative press and irresponsible journalism, 6 more months of Wall Street analysts shunning the company and degrading comments from financial news media.
As the last 2 quarters have demonstrated, a reverse split would be best heading into strength, rather than after. Some say to wait to see if the stock hits a dollar, which is a risk. If it does not hit a dollar and the company waits, the opportunity may again be missed, leaving the company to institute the split on Wall Street’s terms rather than its own, at a time when economic conditions are uncertain and typically representative of Sirius XM Radio’s weakest quarters (Q1 & Q2). Most expect positive third and fourth quarter results from Sirius XM. If the company were, for example, to institute a 10-1 split now, the stock would be valued at 5.61. The equivalent to “running up to a dollar” equates to $10.00 following a split on the same fourth quarter performance, that one dollar represents. This represents the exact same potential percentage gain for investors, and offers downside protection to the company moving forward into next year while ensuring listing requirements are met.
Many are worried that a short selling attack may ensue, but the latest short interest report shows that short interest in SIRI shares is falling dramatically, suggesting that even the “smart money” sees no potential reward in capitalizing on such a move by the company. There is also a significant problem with the “dollar theory” in that many retail investors have set that as their sell point, and short sellers know this. If time were our friend, the company could wait patiently as that dollar wall was broken down, but alas, the clock is ticking. Auto sales cannot be predicted next year and as such, Sirius XM should implement the split sooner rather than later.
Position: Long SIRI
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This article has 105 comments:
However - Given the turnaround seen in the company's fortunes over the last six months, shown in the performance of SIRI which has gained technical strength, I believe it would be best to wait for this strength to really be reinforced by the positive developments that are now coming on stream. The resurgence of the auto industry and exciting new products and Apps in the wireless/internet arena all show promise to enhance revenues into the new year. From this perspective, psychology relating to SIRI is likely to continue to improve through this period, and the 3rd and 4th Qtr. releases should begin to demonstrate this actual performance. As Sirius XM has substantial time (no earlier than March 2010, and probably considerably later, if needed) to enact a reverse split under the Nasdaq terms requiring share price to be above 1.00, I would recommend allowing this time to give the emerging fundamental positives and strength to gain traction. In my view - it would be much better to engineer a reverse split under the perception of strength rather than uncertainty and possible weakness (as exists at the moment). Summing this all up - I have no fears about the impact of a reverse split for SIRI whenever it might be enacted, because I believe the company is fundamentally sound, with great products and potential to expand substantially into the future. However - I would counsel waiting until these positive forces have really taken hold and the aura of strength surrounds any reverse split action that might be taken in the future. In that scenario - a reverse split would clearly be interpreted to be in the best interests of investors and not an action taken to ward off weakness.
That's how it works Brandon.
Could you at least wait until the third (Q3) round is over to project a winner?
There is plenty of time to write about this stuff before you get everyones panties in a wad
With articles as this you prompte yourself as Sirius Long.
Do you have enough shares to make one unit if it does split?
Speaking of wad...................
Bottom line is to buy buy buy now so us regular guys and gals can get in at an affordable price. With continued profitability and innovative ways to listen to SiriXM (don't forget no competition) this stock could be a great long with good dividends. Start buyin in 1,000 share blocks. It will happen and is a very very good thing.
It silences annoying sounds.
And, gives peace to all sitting near it.
If all of the gagets released are functional by this company which you the writers(with pretty pictures) have hammered about for the last six months, the "Bobs Big Boy" satellite they shot up from Russia is functional, there are truely prospects in South America and in the far east, and they most importantly advertise for the holidays which includes Festivus-to sell this stuff-well.......Im waiting.....
In other words we dont need a waaambulance here for R/S if the company just does what it is supposed to.
An R/S gives little faith that the company can manage itself in spite of all the candy this company has to give out
End of story- go play the third round.
Wheres my remote?
On Oct 13 09:19 AM Pell wrote:
> Great Article Brandon. I know I will hate myself for saying this
> but the first person who sold me on the reverse was Siri-Doom. Although
> he mentioned anywhere from 50 to 1 to 10 to 1 was just silly. I believe
> the 10 to 1 will come after a good 3Q results. The bottom line is
> the US $ is week and the US stock market will benefit from international
> money. SiriXM needs to attract attention but needs to be trading
> at noticeable value. After a good 3Q report the stock may get close
> to a $1 therefore a 10 to 1 reverse could be anywhere from $7.50
> to $10.00. International investors will notice as well as US institutional
> money. Plus retiring more than 3 billion shares will cause more demand
> to have a piece of this company.
>
> Bottom line is to buy buy buy now so us regular guys and gals can
> get in at an affordable price. With continued profitability and innovative
> ways to listen to SiriXM (don't forget no competition) this stock
> could be a great long with good dividends. Start buyin in 1,000 share
> blocks. It will happen and is a very very good thing.
So please read and comprehend my position then comment. Your comment was stricting emotional.
On Oct 13 10:05 AM SouthernBeachGuy1960 wrote:
> Pell....If you listened to anything said by Siri-Doom, you lose Creditability.
> He has Zero interest in Sirus succeeding. Discussing a Reverse Split
> today is just STUPID. Sirus is worth more than a dollar today.<br/>
What price do you think is tempting to attract international attention?
$5.00, $10.00.$15.00?????
A buy is a buy at any price.Smart investors know that.
Many, pink sheeted stocks have done very very well
Dont get your point. Institutional investors dont like small stocks because the price percentage is too volitale on a day to day but so what - if it is worthy/ they will buy it.
Adios
On Oct 13 10:13 AM Pell wrote:
> Southern I didn't listen to Siri-Doom I heard what he was saying
> and put it into the right context. Siri-Doom was preaching a the
> split as bad, I am preaching it as good. The US Stock market with
> a weak US $ is ripe for international investors. SiriXM is trading
> at too low a price to attract attention not only from international
> investors but institutional investors. So think about it and then
> comment. SiriusXM is part of the market and doesn't have a life of
> its own. We need SiriusXM's stock to get in the game. I am a SIRI
> LONG with a good amount of shares and I am preaching to BUY BUY BUY
> while we all can still afford 1,000 share blocks (soon to be 100
> share blocks).
>
> So please read and comprehend my position then comment. Your comment
> was stricting emotional.
As for the price. As I mentioned the reverse should not take place until after the 3Q good number. I am hoping that will push the stock closer to a $1. In turn the reverse of 10 for 1 will be around $7.50 to $10. Then hopefully the press follows attracting interest. And finally Sirius will be retiring more than $3 billion shares.
Brandon please expand on your article to give the full story. I don't know if you agree or disagree with me but would like to hear your entire point. This stock need international and institutional interest.
On Oct 13 10:49 AM dead elvis wrote:
> So I see you didnt find the mute button
>
> What price do you think is tempting to attract international attention?
>
>
> $5.00, $10.00.$15.00?????
>
> A buy is a buy at any price.Smart investors know that.
>
> Many, pink sheeted stocks have done very very well
>
> Dont get your point. Institutional investors dont like small stocks
> because the price percentage is too volitale on a day to day but
> so what - if it is worthy/ they will buy it.
>
> Adios
Interesting take- But I think it is up to the company to promote itself- a prime example is not selling their shares for cash - at least for now.
Any good company should
not rely on investors to buy up 3 billion of outstanding shares
so that management can reap rewards.
Like Ive said before either they are stupid or smart like fox-I think the latter- and they know something is in the wind, hense, they do absolutly nothing for promotion other then hire guys from alpha to stir an empty pot.
Unfortunately that is as much as we can agree on this point, because timing and balance sheet restructuring still have to take place, before a position of strength is realized going into the reverse split. The amount of outstanding shares really is irrelevant to the company’s capitalization or any investment house’s ability to invest in the company… That is roughly Mel’s stated opinion in an interview with David Faber, when asked about the r/s. Your quote about doing what is in the best interest of the shareholder is from the Annual Meeting legal speak and enforceable, when we all approved the r/s and extended its authority until June 2010.
Mel not the Board’s, integrity is on the line with his spoken, and committed to words, that the r/s would be used to avoid NASDAQ delisting. You and I know with that authority place, March 2010, is a technicality because a plan is already in place to get an additional 180 day extension from NASDAQ, bringing the “Drop Dead” date to September 2010, for $1 status and compliance. All that is needed is to approve a further authority extension at the May 2010, share holders meeting or if necessary accelerate the annual meeting to Feb 2010 to authority that goes beyond the Sept 2010, date.
Regardless of all that is known about the delisting technicalities, the company CANNOT execute a reverse split until they restructure the 2014 Bonds with 263M lent shares for the purpose of Shorting the company’s stock. I keep getting ignored on this point, but will not go away. Anyone who understand the fundamentals of this company cannot possibly support a R/S when the company has agreement out there for “Qualified Entities” to borrow shares Exlusively for the purpose of shorting the stock. So Please spare the “its a good time to do this because the fundamentals and financial results are positive” argument. The stock will tank before r/s, and in this case with your “Lowest SI” in recent history scenario, no need for shorts to cover before the split. So we will have REETs bailing, selling into the remaining shorts hands, and shorts with legally borrowed shares for the company, taking it down after the split.
Refinance this debt with decent terms, 9-11%, Senior Notes, and announce it when the company has very strong EBITDA, say Feb 2010, Q4 & 10K, and I am fully supportive of the R/S and will hold all the way through it and might even by some shares going into it taking advantage of all the “weak hands” selling out…. Would probably buy some “Put” insurance, but all would be good on the other side, IMO…
UN:D [1.7.0_948]
In addition, understanding that these shares are not currently used in Company GAAP measurements such as EPS, but could be if interpretations of current reporting requirements change, is even more reason to remove them from the marketplace IMO…. Leaving these shares on the market will invite these "qualified entities", which are never you and me as Retail Investors, to Short the stock without any restraint, if the R/S is executed now.
Once this Debt is Removed, and the other Q over Q operating requirements have been achieved, giving the Company good momentum going into the R/S, I could fully endorse the action. Just in case anyone is listening or cares from the Company.......
The putz ceo of enron didnt even know what zipcode the company was in. Do you really think that this Mel guy , this elder cigar smoking over tanned individual is knowledgable? No is the answer.
Regardless of all that..stuff-The fundamentals of the company have been lost
The premise- if you build it they will come- is a dead isssue
The company is floating on their product at best.
The questions during conference calls are lame and dont allow Mel to really state future guidance.
So once again- just dumb- or dumb like fox?
And again fewer shares is a good thing. Sirius Long
On Oct 13 11:33 AM cos1000 wrote:
> For the purpose of providing some background to this "TOXIC Debt",
> information can be found by looking at the company's "The Share Lending
> Agreement”… Filings were made with the SEC in Aug. 2008, and reported
> in the Q3 reporting in the 10Q, in Nov. 2008. It was entered into
> with Morgan Stanley and UBS, London Branch as underwriters of the
> 2014, 7% Convertible Notes, for $550M. Two groups of shares were
> granted by Sirius so that the XM debt could be sold at the time of
> the merge. Xm Stock no longer existed, and Sirius Stock was on the
> Reg Sho list, so shares were scarce to borrow…. Convertible bonds
> come with the Bondholders “Shorting” the shares as a hedge and the
> first lot of 185M were lent for this purpose… once covered at any
> point in time by Bond Holders they are still available for the the
> purpose of shorting the equity… The second lot of 74M was more of
> an incentive, imo, to the underwriters for doing the deal, and were
> not tied to any Notes… they can be used to short the stock at any
> time… The price of all of these shares were “marked” at $1.50, and
> thus the precipitous drop after the merge in share price….. Its all
> in the Filings of Aug 2008…
Do not hang your hat on the third quarter just yet being the "Good News" your looking for. It is also a good thing that those who underwrite refinancing do not listen to the BS media to make their decisions... February would be a better time to announce an r/s with the refinancing of this debt.... The Q4 numbers will not have one time debt restructuring charges in them and growth to the top line revenue and subscriber numbers will be much better... To do it now, without the Q4 being realized and reported is bad management of this company's market capitalization. It takes risk to the SP way beyond what is needed at this point in time.... I am not buying it at this time..... I respectfully disagree with your timing on this issue...
On Oct 13 11:53 AM Pell wrote:
> Great points Cos but again there are way too many shares outstanding.
> There has to be a mid range solution prior to February 2010. Thats
> why I'm looking for SiriusXM to take advantage of good news from
> what we all hope is a 3Q income of -$.01 to + $.01. Waiting for negative
> press to those who do not understand the delisting info is a bad
> move. They need to act on good news not bad. The 2014 Bond Debt you
> refer may be easier to refi on good news not a looming bad news date.
> The reverse will happen when the good news comes first. Sometimes
> a lil common sense goes with investing. Your facts and delivery are
> fantastic but never negotiate with your back against the wall, Sirius
> will negotiate when they finally show good news. And that will be
> 3Q.
>
> And again fewer shares is a good thing. Sirius Long
On Oct 13 11:44 AM dead elvis wrote:
> Good Lord - whatever- Even Mel doesnt know what you just wrote<br/>The
> putz ceo of enron didnt even know what zipcode the company was in.
> Do you really think that this Mel guy , this elder cigar smoking
> over tanned individual is knowledgable? No is the answer.
>
> Regardless of all that..stuff-The fundamentals of the company have
> been lost
>
> The premise- if you build it they will come- is a dead isssue
>
> The company is floating on their product at best.
>
> The questions during conference calls are lame and dont allow Mel
> to really state future guidance.
>
> So once again- just dumb- or dumb like fox?
Although all those headlines could be twisted crap it is still headlines. XMas sales will be better but than last year but still below the norm that's how it will be reported, unemployment will hit 10 but guess what we all know that and yes it will be blown out of proportion, recession is still here but guess what it takes time but again that's not how it will be reported. And finally yes SIRIXM does have until Sept 2010 technically and although it did hit a $1 prior it was unable to maintain because there were huge profit taking from investors and that fact that they are now reporting good EBITDA will be lost in the mix. Why would they roll the dice otherwise? Take advantage of good news is the smart play.
BUY BUY while we can afford. The split will happen on the first good news.
On Oct 13 12:07 PM cos1000 wrote:
> Pell, no one can disagree that fewer shares are better..
> Do not hang your hat on the third quarter just yet being the "Good
> News" your looking for. It is also a good thing that those who underwrite
> refinancing do not listen to the BS media to make their decisions...
> February would be a better time to announce an r/s with the refinancing
> of this debt.... The Q4 numbers will not have one time debt restructuring
> charges in them and growth to the top line revenue and subscriber
> numbers will be much better... To do it now, without the Q4 being
> realized and reported is bad management of this company's market
> capitalization. It takes risk to the SP way beyond what is needed
> at this point in time.... I am not buying it at this time..... I
> respectfully disagree with your timing on this issue...
>
> On Oct 13 11:53 AM Pell wrote:
A reverse split will kill this stock if it occurs before the company demonstrates for several Qtrs that profitability has not only been reached but occurring regularly!
First of all- the split was authorized for the purpose of protecting the 51% line of ownership if Malone decided to convert his 12.5 mil preferred B shares for 40% and on the side start accumulating retail shares in order to get 51% and control. The split authorization approved by share holders clearly explained it was a "Poison Pill" and would only be enacted if needed in order to prevent this.
The hell with international investors and funds limited to Russell guidelines or any other minimum arbitrary requirement- If it RS's before this reaches 1.50-2.00 on it own- I will become a SHORT and Short with fury just like any other trader that wants to make a buck! It will get shorted to the grave and back to Pennies!
If Mel wants his share price over a $1.00- his best option is to pay off / refinance debt- and in the mid term- BUY BACK shares- don't matter if it's only 100 million. Mel's got nearly 10 months left to get to 1.00 on it's own- If he can't do that---SIRI deserves to fail.
I'm Long and Strong- but in it for the $$$ not the Love of Ticker Symbol!
PEACE
"If It Bleeds It Leads", is great for cable television, the newspapers, and the "bazillion" web bloggers out there but, in the Board Room, sound fundamentals and the reality of the company's performance is what drives sound financial management.... In the end that is what will determine the Company's Stock Price... no some emotional and subjective view that depicts the "news" as favorable at this time. Go look up the News at this time and show me one favorable article in print to support your position. Headline in the media the day after the R/S: " Sirius Xm Radio Fails to Bring SP Over a Buck: R/S Only Hope At This Time" or "Investors Lose Again On Sirius Xm: Company Executes R/S To Avoid Delisting"..... What emotion will those headlines draw..??
On Oct 13 12:21 PM Pell wrote:
> Ok Cos but you are taking the emotional view out and media view out
> of the mix. If it bleeds it leads and waiting to 4Q is too close.
> Just think of all the bads new around that time. I hear it now, "poor
> xmas sales" unemployment hits 10, 2010 and we are still not out of
> recession and SIRIXM has a March 2010 delisting date because they
> couldn't hold the $1 share rice for 30 days.
>
> Although all those headlines could be twisted crap it is still headlines.
> XMas sales will be better but than last year but still below the
> norm that's how it will be reported, unemployment will hit 10 but
> guess what we all know that and yes it will be blown out of proportion,
> recession is still here but guess what it takes time but again that's
> not how it will be reported. And finally yes SIRIXM does have until
> Sept 2010 technically and although it did hit a $1 prior it was unable
> to maintain because there were huge profit taking from investors
> and that fact that they are now reporting good EBITDA will be lost
> in the mix. Why would they roll the dice otherwise? Take advantage
> of good news is the smart play.
>
> BUY BUY while we can afford. The split will happen on the first good
> news.
....at that time would be bad,
On Oct 13 12:39 PM 1more4me wrote:
> ABSOLUTELY NOT NOW! And not anytime soon!!!
>
> A reverse split will kill this stock if it occurs before the company
> demonstrates for several Qtrs that profitability has not only been
> reached but occurring regularly!
> First of all- the split was authorized for the purpose of protecting
> the 51% line of ownership if Malone decided to convert his 12.5 mil
> preferred B shares for 40% and on the side start accumulating retail
> shares in order to get 51% and control. The split authorization approved
> by share holders clearly explained it was a "Poison Pill" and would
> only be enacted if needed in order to prevent this.
>
> The hell with international investors and funds limited to Russell
> guidelines or any other minimum arbitrary requirement- If it RS's
> before this reaches 1.50-2.00 on it own- I will become a SHORT and
> Short with fury just like any other trader that wants to make a buck!
> It will get shorted to the grave and back to Pennies!
>
> If Mel wants his share price over a $1.00- his best option is to
> pay off / refinance debt- and in the mid term- BUY BACK shares- don't
> matter if it's only 100 million. Mel's got nearly 10 months left
> to get to 1.00 on it's own- If he can't do that---SIRI deserves to
> fail.
>
> I'm Long and Strong- but in it for the $$$ not the Love of Ticker
> Symbol!
> PEACE
Good Article
I am telling all of you, SRIUS' best move is to use the first bit of good news to its advantage. This will not hurt you long positions, nor will the r/s. We need to get the attention of the large investors both internationally and institutionally and at a $1 a share with 3.9 Billion shares outstanding that will never happen. Never happen!
So we need to sit back and hope as we all are predicting the 3Q numbers are good. Then we need to have a r/s taking more than 3 billion shares off the market. If profitability happens in 4Q and into 2011 we may see a 2 to 1 in our favor.
I am starting to think that some of the positive SiriusXM posters here may have alternative motives. The US stock market will only have a short period to be extremely attractive to the international investor due to a weak US $. SiriusXM needs to capitalize on the first chance of good news. That is how the game is played. If they do not do the r/s after the first wave of good news they risk everything and that is our money.
I respected your view but maybe you didn't read my entire post. The good news is the 3Q results, there isn't any good news now! Although there should be considering the dock being on stores shelves with pre orders. Again another example of how it works. There is plenty of good news on SiriusXM but only the bad is reported. Thanks for making my point stand.
On Oct 13 12:50 PM cos1000 wrote:
> Taking the emotional view out is how to best invest in this company's
> stock. With 75% of the shareholders being retail investors, what
> do you think will happen if they were to announce a R/S now? There
> would be a major sell of based on emotion.... Why do you think there
> will be a sell of at $1? Because of Retail Investor emotion. Your
> supposition about Q1 of 2010 and having to do the R/S at that time,
> is only that. The facts are that the company's bottom line performance
> is improving and there is no reason to think that will end in the
> near future. In the final analysis of when to do the r/s, it should
> only be done, First in the best interest of ALL Investors, not just
> those elite few holding shares to short the company, and Second,
> only if required to avoid NASDAQ delisting, which at this point in
> time has not been established.
>
> "If It Bleeds It Leads", is great for cable television, the newspapers,
> and the "bazillion" web bloggers out there but, in the Board Room,
> sound fundamentals and the reality of the company's performance is
> what drives sound financial management.... In the end that is what
> will determine the Company's Stock Price... no some emotional and
> subjective view that depicts the "news" as favorable at this time.
> Go look up the News at this time and show me one favorable article
> in print to support your position. Headline in the media the day
> after the R/S: " Sirius Xm Radio Fails to Bring SP Over a Buck: R/S
> Only Hope At This Time" or "Investors Lose Again On Sirius Xm: Company
> Executes R/S To Avoid Delisting"..... What emotion will those headlines
> draw..??
On Oct 13 12:54 PM Pell wrote:
> I love this stock and have poured a lot of my money into it. SiriusXM's
> stock has to hit $1 and sustain for 30 consecutive days. We all know
> that there are many investors who are not long and will take the
> profit the first day this stock hits $1. This stock is still a great
> investment but may only be this affordable for a period of time.
> Yes it will go over a $1 all by itself but it needs investors to
> maintain that value.
>
> I am telling all of you, SRIUS' best move is to use the first bit
> of good news to its advantage. This will not hurt you long positions,
> nor will the r/s. We need to get the attention of the large investors
> both internationally and institutionally and at a $1 a share with
> 3.9 Billion shares outstanding that will never happen. Never happen!
>
>
> So we need to sit back and hope as we all are predicting the 3Q numbers
> are good. Then we need to have a r/s taking more than 3 billion shares
> off the market. If profitability happens in 4Q and into 2011 we may
> see a 2 to 1 in our favor.
>
> I am starting to think that some of the positive SiriusXM posters
> here may have alternative motives. The US stock market will only
> have a short period to be extremely attractive to the international
> investor due to a weak US $. SiriusXM needs to capitalize on the
> first chance of good news. That is how the game is played. If they
> do not do the r/s after the first wave of good news they risk everything
> and that is our money.
On Oct 13 01:04 PM cos1000 wrote:
> Money poured into this again..... is not the issue. I too have poured
> money in. I could care less about institutional investors at this
> time. There is nothing stopping International Retail Investors or
> for that matter Institutions from buying in to this Company right
> now and don't quote me how they can't buy any stock under a $5, or
> $3, because it is irrelevant. Most can and do. Go check the maffais.com
> report if you are wondering who. You can question motives all you
> want but, the debate with me has been about when not whether or not
> an r/s should occur... Don't pull the deflecting BS with me about
> motives... been here and around a long time... You'll need to do
> better than that to convince me.....
Cos please do the same on UIS they are slated to do a 10 to 1 split in late October taking a huge amount of stock off the market. You will see the retail investor get out early lowering the value for a short period then POP!
On Oct 13 01:27 PM PROTECT AND SERVE 0310 wrote:
> The company needs to buy back stocks they will help bring the stock
> up. Any R/s will just fuel the shorts......any fool who don't think
> so is out of his mind. tak positive about the company not neg.....Brandon
> your article sucked it had siri-doom al over it.
Missing Your Point = I Respectfully Disagree
"Cos you seem to be very text book intelligent but need to use a little more sense. This stock needs to be on the radar of all investors not just retail."
Again, maybe I'm missing your point but, with 3.8B shares issued, top 5 in Short Interest, and with every media hound on the Internet using is SIRI symbol to increase their per click traffic.... I think we have there attention... This is about the R/S. A Q3 r/s on that news may have the Iron only "Luke Warm" at best.... On News of Profit in 4Q and refinancing Toxic Debt, a point you seem to keep missing, will have the "Iron, Red Hot" in your century old analogy.
On Oct 13 01:15 PM Pell wrote:
> Sorry again COS you miss the point. We all know institution money can buy any stock with any value. The problem is most large institutions do not wish to waste expensive resources like their employees researching stock of that value that do not pay dividends. Large institutions are not day traders either. It's pretty simple. Cos you seem to be very text book intelligent but need to use a little more sense. This stock needs to be on the radar of all investors not just retail.
> The r/s will be a good thing followed buy continued earnings. But
> always "strike when the iron is hot"! Know that theory has held for
> centuries.
You nailed it on the head- Anybody that wants a share can get a share regardless of where they are- and any institution can find a cover fund- happens all day long in the pink sheets and OTC's...
The cure- is to give people that have it- reason to get more. Hold what they got. And if a new investor comes along with shiny coins- look impressive enough that they'll want a piece.
That $1.00 line had become a goal way before the delisting warning come out. And you can bet it will be a fierce line of resistance- but the same good fortune that will get it there will keep it moving beyond- Good products, good plan for debt retirement, and a half dozen good sources of new subscribers leading to increased revenue.
Proof will be in the Puddin at each QTR Report for the next 4 QTRS. Nothing else need be done- especially a RS- put that to rest and if need be we can revisit the idea in March of next year...
On Oct 13 01:39 PM cos1000 wrote:
> Wow Pell..... so now.....
>
> Missing Your Point = I Respectfully Disagree
>
> "Cos you seem to be very text book intelligent but need to use a
> little more sense. This stock needs to be on the radar of all investors
> not just retail."
>
> Again, maybe I'm missing your point but, with 3.8B shares issued,
> top 5 in Short Interest, and with every media hound on the Internet
> using is SIRI symbol to increase their per click traffic.... I think
> we have there attention... This is about the R/S. A Q3 r/s on that
> news may have the Iron only "Luke Warm" at best.... On News of Profit
> in 4Q and refinancing Toxic Debt, a point you seem to keep missing,
> will have the "Iron, Red Hot" in your century old analogy.
>
> On Oct 13 01:15 PM Pell wrote:
For example, for arguements sake.
If a stock holder has 50k bought at $1.50 the investment is $75 k.
A stock price of .50 gives him $25k now.
A reversre split of 10/1 gives him 5k at $5.00, or $25 k now, the same.
The question is how to get to $75 k.
With the reverse it has to go to $15 per share. That's the if. The
roadblocks are shortsellers, challenges by new technology, economic recovery, auto recovery, corp. management and greed
and corruption.
With no reverse, stock price only has to go back to $1.50.
Which is better. To go to $15 from $5 or $1.50 from $.50.
If capitilization is the same in either scenario, then why is the
Corp. more valuable when the price is $5 than .50. Why are more
investor's going to jump in when it's $5? The financial dynamics are the same,ie. costs, revenue, debit, and business model etc.
The change in stock price doesn't change the fundamentals. But
what it does do is let management sell their options at a higher
price share and it also gives management the chance to sell more
shares to raise capital again and then dilute the stock price again.
Keep in mind everyone that the management is basically playing
for their own interest to win.
The speculations that a reverse could work is based on a lot of if's.
If the price share then goes a lot higher, if the economy recovers
and autos, etc. If there were no delisting requirement would there
be a discussion about a reverse split because it would help investors. No because it is not an option to help stock investors. It
is a manipulative tool to try and get out of a hole. But it doesn't get
rid of the hole, it only moves you to a different hole.
If investors don't see the value at $.50 as it is now, they aren't going
to see a new higher value when it's a $5 when nothing in the
fundamentals has changed.
I wouldn't be surprised that management and their proxies(shorters) aren't keeping thre price down in order to force the r/s so they can make money on effects of 10 for 1. What's best for them
is what's at play and not what's best for stock holders. Hold off on the r/s until later, you could get screwed a little now or a lot screwed
later. Unless if.............
"Okay I may have offended you but I still believe there will too much other bad news (twisted news) during that time which may cool the iron even though the sword may be sharper."
Pell..... Not at all offended at all.... just not buying all the "cliches" and "metaphors"..... Between Irons being Hot, Twisted News, and Sharper Swords, I have not lost sight of the original debate.... I have given specific reasons why not to do a r/s, and when I think one would be appropriate to.... not offended or emotional about the discussion just do not agree with you.. or Brandon's take for that matter...
"1more4me".....
Check the 8K filing, April 29th... Yahoo, Edgar Online, SIRI. This filing and the R/S Authority was put into place to protect as a "poison pill" to prevent any change in Control or Ownership without the Authority of SXM's Board of Directors.
Item 1.01. Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement.
"On April 28, 2009, our Board of Directors (the “Board”) adopted a rights plan to protect against limitations on our ability to use our net operating loss carryforwards and certain other tax benefits (the “NOLs”) to reduce potential future federal income tax obligations. "
"The Rights Plan is intended to act as a deterrent to any person or group (an “Acquiring Person”) acquiring 4.9% or more of our outstanding common stock (assuming for purposes of this calculation that all of our outstanding convertible preferred stock is converted into common stock) without the approval of our Board."
By the way who cares about the retail investor buying in at $5 a share? This company needs investors who can afford higher prices but gets a bang for its buck.
We should all stop thinking day trading and thinking long term investment. Please lets stop treating this as a penny stock. SIRIUSXM needs to become a player.
On Oct 13 02:42 PM dayworker wrote:
> Is he right or wrong about r/s? Follow the numbers, mathematics in
> the world of if this or if that.
> For example, for arguements sake.
> If a stock holder has 50k bought at $1.50 the investment is $75 k.
>
> A stock price of .50 gives him $25k now.
> A reversre split of 10/1 gives him 5k at $5.00, or $25 k now, the
> same.
> The question is how to get to $75 k.
> With the reverse it has to go to $15 per share. That's the if. The
>
> roadblocks are shortsellers, challenges by new technology, economic
> recovery, auto recovery, corp. management and greed
> and corruption.
> With no reverse, stock price only has to go back to $1.50.
> Which is better. To go to $15 from $5 or $1.50 from $.50.
> If capitilization is the same in either scenario, then why is the
>
> Corp. more valuable when the price is $5 than .50. Why are more<br/>investor's
> going to jump in when it's $5? The financial dynamics are the same,ie.
> costs, revenue, debit, and business model etc.
> The change in stock price doesn't change the fundamentals. But<br/>what
> it does do is let management sell their options at a higher
> price share and it also gives management the chance to sell more
>
> shares to raise capital again and then dilute the stock price again.
>
> Keep in mind everyone that the management is basically playing<br/>for
> their own interest to win.
> The speculations that a reverse could work is based on a lot of if's.
>
> If the price share then goes a lot higher, if the economy recovers
>
> and autos, etc. If there were no delisting requirement would there
>
> be a discussion about a reverse split because it would help investors.
> No because it is not an option to help stock investors. It
> is a manipulative tool to try and get out of a hole. But it doesn't
> get
> rid of the hole, it only moves you to a different hole.
> If investors don't see the value at $.50 as it is now, they aren't
> going
> to see a new higher value when it's a $5 when nothing in the
> fundamentals has changed.
> I wouldn't be surprised that management and their proxies(shorters)
> aren't keeping thre price down in order to force the r/s so they
> can make money on effects of 10 for 1. What's best for them
> is what's at play and not what's best for stock holders. Hold off
> on the r/s until later, you could get screwed a little now or a lot
> screwed
> later. Unless if.............
On Oct 13 02:50 PM cos1000 wrote:
>
> "Okay I may have offended you but I still believe there will too
> much other bad news (twisted news) during that time which may cool
> the iron even though the sword may be sharper."
>
> Pell..... Not at all offended at all.... just not buying all the
> "cliches" and "metaphors"..... Between Irons being Hot, Twisted News,
> and Sharper Swords, I have not lost sight of the original debate....
> I have given specific reasons why not to do a r/s, and when I think
> one would be appropriate to.... not offended or emotional about the
> discussion just do not agree with you.. or Brandon's take for that
> matter...
>
>
> "1more4me".....
> Check the 8K filing, April 29th... Yahoo, Edgar Online, SIRI. This
> filing and the R/S Authority was put into place to protect as a "poison
> pill" to prevent any change in Control or Ownership without the Authority
> of SXM's Board of Directors.
>
> Item 1.01. Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement.
> "On April 28, 2009, our Board of Directors (the “Board”) adopted
> a rights plan to protect against limitations on our ability to use
> our net operating loss carryforwards and certain other tax benefits
> (the “NOLs”) to reduce potential future federal income tax obligations.
> "
>
> "The Rights Plan is intended to act as a deterrent to any person
> or group (an “Acquiring Person”) acquiring 4.9% or more of our outstanding
> common stock (assuming for purposes of this calculation that all
> of our outstanding convertible preferred stock is converted into
> common stock) without the approval of our Board."
>
management. They twist the view not based on what the market is
saying about the true value but what puts management in the position to make money for themselves. The retail investor is who put money
in managements pockets to keep Siri afloat. Institutional and hedge funds can be predator investors cutting reatil investors throats and
leaving everyone under water. Just look at the last 12 months.
On Oct 13 03:16 PM dayworker wrote:
> There are some people who are seeing things from the advantage to
>
> management. They twist the view not based on what the market is<br/>saying
> about the true value but what puts management in the position to
> make money for themselves. The retail investor is who put money<br/>in
> managements pockets to keep Siri afloat. Institutional and hedge
> funds can be predator investors cutting reatil investors throats
> and
> leaving everyone under water. Just look at the last 12 months.
example of $1.50 to double their money it only has to go to $3. Otherwise on r/s the $15 has to go to $30 to double. When in the near future do you think it's going to $30? Isn't it more realistic, given better 3 and 4 q reports that it could go to more than $1.50.
If the logic is that a r/s means bigger players will invest because the p/s is higher, but the fundamental of pe is actually the same percentage wise, then why risk greater capital to achieve more return when the resistance also increases. The logic fails because if there were no delisting pressure would the idea of r/s split be a better strategy on it's own merits to raise p/s. It doesn't. Again, it's only being discussed because of the delisting rule not the merits of
market invetsment strategy. Think like management and you will see it from a different point of view.
In regards to comparison of Priceline and other stocks with successful r/s, the difference is competence and honesty of management. SIRI management has not shown the competence to long term strategy, a good business model for share holders and
future debt organization that didn't serve mangement. For instance, the high salaries and stock options they get, the outragoeus pay out
to talent that caused extensive cash bleeding when the budget was
deep in debt and they did nothing to cut the high talent outlay. The company is in trouble partly because of greedy management as well as the economic factors and the delayed merger. Other corp.'s that r/s successfully were under competent and honest management.
thank you cos1000 for the personal discount-who is really cos1600plus- whew
Of course insulting people is only part of your day job since it appears either you are unemployed in a job for yourself or you boss will axe your butt when he finds out that all you do is drool on your keyboard re this issue
I can not believe how you have all agonised over this issue-It didnt go BK in Feb, now did it?-
And if Mel said he didnt want an r/s unless needed- well i think you can take that to the bank as well
Day guy I agree with you but you give the company too much credit when you use the word management-
When you all break even, then what will you agonise over-
Far far too much emotion here- opps sorry Im dead.
On Oct 13 04:54 PM dayworker wrote:
> The issue is not a goal of $1.50. That was an example to show a comparison
> between spreads before and after a split. The best is to not reverse
> and have the p/s go to , $4,5, or 6. In order for the
> example of $1.50 to double their money it only has to go to $3. Otherwise
> on r/s the $15 has to go to $30 to double. When in the near future
> do you think it's going to $30? Isn't it more realistic, given better
> 3 and 4 q reports that it could go to more than $1.50.
> If the logic is that a r/s means bigger players will invest because
> the p/s is higher, but the fundamental of pe is actually the same
> percentage wise, then why risk greater capital to achieve more return
> when the resistance also increases. The logic fails because if there
> were no delisting pressure would the idea of r/s split be a better
> strategy on it's own merits to raise p/s. It doesn't. Again, it's
> only being discussed because of the delisting rule not the merits
> of
> market invetsment strategy. Think like management and you will see
> it from a different point of view.
> In regards to comparison of Priceline and other stocks with successful
> r/s, the difference is competence and honesty of management. SIRI
> management has not shown the competence to long term strategy, a
> good business model for share holders and
> future debt organization that didn't serve mangement. For instance,
> the high salaries and stock options they get, the outragoeus pay
> out
> to talent that caused extensive cash bleeding when the budget was
>
> deep in debt and they did nothing to cut the high talent outlay.
> The company is in trouble partly because of greedy management as
> well as the economic factors and the delayed merger. Other corp.'s
> that r/s successfully were under competent and honest management.
Hey I'll take a $1 or $1.50 but without the reverse split and the amount of shares outstanding don't hold your breath for $5 or more. We may all get lucky and it goes to $2.50 but without the split most real investors will run for the hills and sell.
Please understand this company should not have 3.9 billion shares outstanding. Today this stock is simply a day trader's source of a quick buck not a long term investment.
average down and holding long. Your right about outstanding shares.
To many. But if they r/s and lower the outstanding what is to prevent
them from then issuing new shares at the higher price. That's what I would do if I were a scumbag management, and I'm not. You rake in more of some one else's money to leverage the company and so management is off the hook, uses the new money to pay itself bonuses, stock options they redeem and their rich and everyone
else is holding the bag as the company is leverage. The pie in the sky idea that they can't wait to pay dividends in long term ain't going to happen in the life cycle of SIRI before a new technology comes along. I'd say within 6 months of r/s they'll issue new shares. You
overlook their greed and selfishness and think they will do right for share holders with dividends. The game on the street now is leverage the company but they take their fee's, salaries, bonuses
and options up front. There was a good article a week or so ago in the NYT about the Simmons Mattress company. That will explain the game better than me that is how the game is played today. The
old days of hold for long term and dividends is basically dead. Especially in the electronic, technology, digital sector. You might
get screwed a little now waiting or a lot later if they r/s.
if there were no delisting rule. Do you think it still it has advantages
on it's merits alone. I'd like to know who thinks r/s is better unless their hand is forced. Also you didn't say anything about if they should be trusted. You actually think they will do right by the shareholders. If you do then I have a Lehman brothers bridge to sell you.
And sorry Protect although buying back shares is the best possible thing they simply do not have the cash or ability to finance that move.
On Oct 14 07:50 AM R A F wrote:
> The market for SIRI has held firm and steady all through the daylong
> discussion on this site about the consideration of possible reverse
> split. This possibility has been used as a "fear tactic" repeatedly
> in recent months by the "bashers", whenever they wanted to bring
> pressure on the stock (along with their hyped cries of pending bankruptcy).
> With all this talk about the pros and cons of a possible reverse
> split now actively taking place on Seeking Alpha, the stock has not
> given one inch on the downside. What does that tell you??
On Oct 14 09:08 AM Pell wrote:
> RAF it tells you there is no real interest in this stock except for
> a quick buck. Right now I believe the shorts are bluffing by not
> buying this stock now and hoping the longs panic. When and I believe
> it will this stock goes over a $1 the R/S will still take place.
> I would prefer it happen at a $1 so we have a $10 stock to market
> but it needs to be done. I am a "true" Sirius Long meaning I believe
> the shares need to be reduced and dividends need to be paid.
>
> And sorry Protect although buying back shares is the best possible
> thing they simply do not have the cash or ability to finance that
> move.
On the r/s, I was on the fence about it before, but I think you've convinced me today. Although I do agree that some instititutional investors buy what they want to (GS), I think most do have lower price limit rules which are actually enforced. The types of people/firms who hire institutions to manage their money are a lot more risk averse than the types (like me) who are willing to bet on SIRI. Penny stocks are too volatile for the average investor so, by association, they are also to risky/volatile for the institutions.
On another note. . .this thread provided one of the most intelligently debated issues I've ever seen about Sirius. Where was SiriDoom to publish his nonsense or someone else to blindly predict $2.50 a share by year end?
On Oct 14 09:21 AM R A F wrote:
> Pell - Stay tuned. I believe SIRI will pick up increasing technical
> strength in coming days, as a result of impressive developments now
> coming on line (SkyDock holding major potential). All this speculation
> about a reverse split should take a back seat until Sirius XM demonstrates
> the strength that lies ahead. Nothing should be done in an aura of
> uncertainty and weakness, which is now coming to an end (in my opinion).
> Any changes to the capital structure (refinancings, stock buy backs,
> reverse splits, etc.) should only be undertaken when done through
> strength. The markets will always recognize truth in the end - and
> the truth is that Sirius XM has a unique combination of great content,
> delivery, and devices/applications.
On Oct 14 09:40 AM Pell wrote:
> Agreed RAF. That is why I believe the split should come at the first
> sign of strength. This would be after the 3Q report. It will benefit
> all us Siri Longs! The weak US $1 will bring plenty of investment
> money from international investors and we need to be on their radar
> as a higher priced stock with less shares outstanding. Remember SiriusXM
> is not an international product so we need more than just a $1 per
> share stock.
On Oct 14 09:48 AM R A F wrote:
> Pell - I agree with your sentiment about international investment
> but I continue to think 3rd Qtr. is too early to really reinforce
> the perception of strength. This is beginning to emerge now, but
> much of the confirmation will come in early 2010, as new developments
> (auto resurgence, new wireless/internet devices and Apps) really
> come on stream and into play. For this reason, I believe any consideration
> of a reverse split should await real strengthening in the company's
> position, which should not be solidified until sometime through 2010.
>
> On Oct 14 09:40 AM Pell wrote:
market views on this stock, the current investor strategy and SIRI
as a product. I'm not criticizing anyone.
First, the product is great and has potential for profitability under
competent management. My view management is not up to par to
handle this product. Also management shows signs of greed, like
many.
Secondly, and most important, is the new investor strategy from
the big investors and hedge funds. The goal for them is to leverage
companies to the max and take out their profits up front in fees and bonsuses. This is how it applies to SIRI. Liberty bought into SIRI
to save it from bankruptcy. Why? Because of the high subscription number which is a cash cow. But how is Liberty going to make it's money back. Maybe on some day profits. No. It is a strictly leverage
play. In otherwords, when SIRI goes r/s, the number of outstanding share drop. In a short while the shares that now become available
will be put back on the market at the new higher p/s. This will give
management cash to pay off Liberty and the high fees Liberty
contracted for. This is all strictly a money play thru leveraging. This
has nothing to do with SIRI as a product. It has nothing to do with
how the market views the potential profit of the company.
In essence, the idea for management is use the r/s to actually
generate more shares available to leverage the company again
while paying off Liberty and guaranteeing themselves huge payouts.
That's the way the game is played on the street now.
There are instinces where the product returns profitability like Apple.
But the game is leveraging. As long as they can keep cash rolling
in from subscriptions they have a product for leveraging. The management will keep making the money while offering to retail
buyers that some day there will be more profits. But they will again
leverage against that.
Finally, the market views SIRI with suspicion that it will be an honest
and profitable company. They pretty much know management is
not interested in balancing the budget and developing profitability,
otherwise they would be buying at $.55 p/s like crazy. They see
how management pays itself and it's high priced talent and also
how management leveraged the company to the brink of BK. A good management would have cut, cut cut on everything. The
market knows the game SIRI is playing. It's the strategy du jour.
The conclusion, management wants to keep the p/s low, force a
r/s, reduce the outstanding, then later sell shares again at higher
p/s leveraging the company again, pay off Liberty and themselves.
In the meantime just keep collecting cash from subscriptions and showing a small growth to keep the game going. The game is
a leveraging game outside the product performance.
a quote from their last line re monty python review this weekend
======================...
Sirius XM isn't as mangled as its stock price suggests. It's just a flesh wound.
My paraphrase-from MP
Lets finally look at the bright side of life. If not, go buy some shrubbery-For we are the knights who say" nich" . to shorts.
And by the way Mr. Malone and Liberty have proven to be excellent managers and marketers. Don't think for one minute he isn't addressing the board and whispering in managements ear. If Liberty does take possession of Sirius, I guarantee one penny will not be missing.
On Oct 14 12:32 PM dayworker wrote:
> My comment is to add a dimension to the SIRI discussion about
> market views on this stock, the current investor strategy and SIRI
>
> as a product. I'm not criticizing anyone.
> First, the product is great and has potential for profitability under
>
> competent management. My view management is not up to par to
> handle this product. Also management shows signs of greed, like<br/>many.
>
> Secondly, and most important, is the new investor strategy from<br/>the
> big investors and hedge funds. The goal for them is to leverage<br/>com...
> to the max and take out their profits up front in fees and bonsuses.
> This is how it applies to SIRI. Liberty bought into SIRI
> to save it from bankruptcy. Why? Because of the high subscription
> number which is a cash cow. But how is Liberty going to make it's
> money back. Maybe on some day profits. No. It is a strictly leverage
>
> play. In otherwords, when SIRI goes r/s, the number of outstanding
> share drop. In a short while the shares that now become available
>
> will be put back on the market at the new higher p/s. This will give
>
> management cash to pay off Liberty and the high fees Liberty
> contracted for. This is all strictly a money play thru leveraging.
> This
> has nothing to do with SIRI as a product. It has nothing to do with
>
> how the market views the potential profit of the company.
> In essence, the idea for management is use the r/s to actually<br/>gen...
> more shares available to leverage the company again
> while paying off Liberty and guaranteeing themselves huge payouts.
>
> That's the way the game is played on the street now.
> There are instinces where the product returns profitability like
> Apple.
> But the game is leveraging. As long as they can keep cash rolling
>
> in from subscriptions they have a product for leveraging. The management
> will keep making the money while offering to retail
> buyers that some day there will be more profits. But they will again
>
> leverage against that.
> Finally, the market views SIRI with suspicion that it will be an
> honest
> and profitable company. They pretty much know management is
> not interested in balancing the budget and developing profitability,
>
> otherwise they would be buying at $.55 p/s like crazy. They see<br/>how
> management pays itself and it's high priced talent and also
> how management leveraged the company to the brink of BK. A good management
> would have cut, cut cut on everything. The
> market knows the game SIRI is playing. It's the strategy du jour.
>
> The conclusion, management wants to keep the p/s low, force a
> r/s, reduce the outstanding, then later sell shares again at higher
>
> p/s leveraging the company again, pay off Liberty and themselves.
>
> In the meantime just keep collecting cash from subscriptions and
> showing a small growth to keep the game going. The game is
> a leveraging game outside the product performance.
On Oct 14 12:32 PM dayworker wrote:
> My comment is to add a dimension to the SIRI discussion about
> market views on this stock, the current investor strategy and SIRI
>
> as a product. I'm not criticizing anyone.
> First, the product is great and has potential for profitability under
>
> competent management. My view management is not up to par to
> handle this product. Also management shows signs of greed, like<br/>many.
>
> Secondly, and most important, is the new investor strategy from<br/>the
> big investors and hedge funds. The goal for them is to leverage<br/>com...
> to the max and take out their profits up front in fees and bonsuses.
> This is how it applies to SIRI. Liberty bought into SIRI
> to save it from bankruptcy. Why? Because of the high subscription
> number which is a cash cow. But how is Liberty going to make it's
> money back. Maybe on some day profits. No. It is a strictly leverage
>
> play. In otherwords, when SIRI goes r/s, the number of outstanding
> share drop. In a short while the shares that now become available
>
> will be put back on the market at the new higher p/s. This will give
>
> management cash to pay off Liberty and the high fees Liberty
> contracted for. This is all strictly a money play thru leveraging.
> This
> has nothing to do with SIRI as a product. It has nothing to do with
>
> how the market views the potential profit of the company.
> In essence, the idea for management is use the r/s to actually<br/>gen...
> more shares available to leverage the company again
> while paying off Liberty and guaranteeing themselves huge payouts.
>
> That's the way the game is played on the street now.
> There are instinces where the product returns profitability like
> Apple.
> But the game is leveraging. As long as they can keep cash rolling
>
> in from subscriptions they have a product for leveraging. The management
> will keep making the money while offering to retail
> buyers that some day there will be more profits. But they will again
>
> leverage against that.
> Finally, the market views SIRI with suspicion that it will be an
> honest
> and profitable company. They pretty much know management is
> not interested in balancing the budget and developing profitability,
>
> otherwise they would be buying at $.55 p/s like crazy. They see<br/>how
> management pays itself and it's high priced talent and also
> how management leveraged the company to the brink of BK. A good management
> would have cut, cut cut on everything. The
> market knows the game SIRI is playing. It's the strategy du jour.
>
> The conclusion, management wants to keep the p/s low, force a
> r/s, reduce the outstanding, then later sell shares again at higher
>
> p/s leveraging the company again, pay off Liberty and themselves.
>
> In the meantime just keep collecting cash from subscriptions and
> showing a small growth to keep the game going. The game is
> a leveraging game outside the product performance.
Listen if you shorted buy now and stop the silly comments. The Longs are in and making our stand. And as far as math is concerned; its not that simple. If it was that simple the majority of us with a 6th grade education (Or at least those educated in the 70s and early 80s) would be millionaires.
On Oct 14 11:58 PM supermankind wrote:
> so let me get this straight -- the reason why siri has so many shares
> is because of years of stock dilution??? isn't that like saying the
> reason why the koolaid tastes weak is because we added more and more
> water!!!-- otherwise we would have normal tasting koolaid- does any
> body who invests not under stand market cap and the games that are
> played here? i mean look at AIG --people get all wet in the panties
> when the stock went to $30 after the 1 for 20 split! would anyone
> or did anyone say a peep when it was at 1.50(same market cap)before
> the split-- sad thing is most people are s**theads when it comes
> to math(heck when it comes to most things) and so they get all weak
> in the knees in when they see BIG NUMBERS--SO GO AHEAD REVERSE SPLIT
> SIRI stock-- HELL double sow cow reverse split with a back twist
> if you want-- it is still a bankrupt company with a terrible management
> team -- great product terrible stock!!! MAYBE THEY COULD 1 FOR A
> MILLION reverse with a flying camel double somersault! at least then
> they would have an appropriate number of shares-- fully shorted and
> somehow then wholly owned by Mel.
On Oct 15 09:30 AM R A F wrote:
> There is a very significant article today on Satwaves.com "Audiovox
> Bullish on Sirius XM Radio" . This details the views of senior executives
> at Audiovox, a major hardware supplier to Sirius XM, with regard
> to emerging substantial demand for the Skydock, enhanced marketing
> plans, and an emerging marketing partnership with Apple. This is
> must reading for all who are involved with SIRI. I expect all of
> these developments to reinforce the underlying technical strength
> of SIRI over the intermediate to longer term. Near term dips should
> keep meeting underlying support and recoveries should follow. Shorts
> should continue to aggressively reduce positions, as exposure to
> further losses will continue as upside resumes in coming weeks.
On Oct 15 09:42 AM Pell wrote:
> Thanks RAF. What is your opinion on the new Blackberry coming out
> today to challenge IPhone market share. Is Sirius partnering with
> Apple a mistake? Should they market themselves and make the new Skydock
> compatable to all?
RAF for example- you perhaps are RAF 22 and have been seen writing on other sites for promotion of sirius product
Sirius doom may be aka wise one from msn etc
To make these discussions believable and not to dilute and waste others time, isnt it time for all of you/us to use disclosure yourselves as the initial author- Otherwise based on some of the comments- some of you are paid guns with ulterior motives and I fear you are quite bold about it.And, would just about sell your mothers wedding ring with it still attached to a pulsatile finger.
If any of you have a problem with this-and raise /or disagree/ your comments are worthless.
Whats with all the 7th grade secrecy?
On Oct 15 02:37 PM dead elvis wrote:
> All this is suspicious.
>
> RAF for example- you perhaps are RAF 22 and have been seen writing
> on other sites for promotion of sirius product
>
> Sirius doom may be aka wise one from msn etc
>
> To make these discussions believable and not to dilute and waste
> others time, isnt it time for all of you/us to use disclosure yourselves
> as the initial author- Otherwise based on some of the comments- some
> of you are paid guns with ulterior motives and I fear you are quite
> bold about it.And, would just about sell your mothers wedding ring
> with it still attached to a pulsatile finger.
>
> If any of you have a problem with this-and raise /or disagree/ your
> comments are worthless.
>
> Whats with all the 7th grade secrecy?
On Oct 15 03:03 PM R A F wrote:
> I would suggest you evaluate comments based upon their content and
> veracity and forget all your other irrelevant and inaccurate assumptions
> about identities and motives. The comments speak for themselves -
> if you believe the information within to be of value, go with it
> - if you do not believe the information to be of value, discard it.
> That is your prerogative. You should judge all comments on these
> pages only by your belief in their accuracy and the degree to which
> their conclusions appear to be well thought out. .
"Regardless of all that is known about the delisting technicalities, the company CANNOT execute a reverse split until they restructure the 2014 Bonds with 263M lent shares for the purpose of Shorting the company’s stock. I keep getting ignored on this point, but will not go away. Anyone who understand the fundamentals of this company cannot possibly support a R/S when the company has agreement out there for “Qualified Entities” to borrow shares Exlusively for the purpose of shorting the stock."
Not being a finance expert, this seems like a significant point to me. But then, what do you mean by "CANNOT"? Maybe it's just your opinion that they "definitely should not"? More clarity would be helpful.
Take Fri. volume for instance. Almost $42MM shares traded. Again the daytraders are killing this stock. The r/s is necessary and like some of the people who agree with me here it is a matter of timing..Not to do but when to do. The only way this stock becomes a great long term investment is to take some shares off the block. Only then will the real investors get interested. I'll say it again and again, us current longers are in at ground level as regular Joes. This usually doesn't happen for us. Finally we may bet a peice of a very good company at a very cheap price.
On Oct 17 06:04 AM GeorgeS wrote:
> On Oct 13 cos wrote:
> "Regardless of all that is known about the delisting technicalities,
> the company CANNOT execute a reverse split until they restructure
> the 2014 Bonds with 263M lent shares for the purpose of Shorting
> the company’s stock. I keep getting ignored on this point, but will
> not go away. Anyone who understand the fundamentals of this company
> cannot possibly support a R/S when the company has agreement out
> there for “Qualified Entities” to borrow shares Exlusively for the
> purpose of shorting the stock."
>
> Not being a finance expert, this seems like a significant point to
> me. But then, what do you mean by "CANNOT"? Maybe it's just your
> opinion that they "definitely should not"? More clarity would be
> helpful.
On Oct 19 10:18 AM connorport wrote:
> You don't need a Reverse Split if the stock is above the dollar.
> I would rather them try for a stock and debt buyback first once all
> synergies are realized. One thing is for sure. No one knows but management
> and they aren't talking. Don't let the insider sells fool you. There
> are a number of reasons they could be selling like to get paid. If
> you notice they are only selling their exercised options but not
> their base shares. One is issued 1.9 million shares and is selling
> 10% at a time exactly. They can also tell a story like why would
> all the insiders liquidate unless they are minimizing their risks.
> Why sell at .60 if the stock is sure to top a dollar soon? I have
> to agree with Cos, i bought at .11 and can wait for a pop and sell
> covered calls to reduce my risks which is exactly what i will do.
On Oct 19 10:49 AM Pell wrote:
> SiriusXM will not have the capital to buy backs shares for a long
> long time. A r/s is the only way to get rid of daytraders and shorters.
> I am SIRI LONG and would like to see this company's stock put on
> the map instead of its continued trend. Over a $1 is nothing to stop
> the kind of stockholders us longers don't want.
On Oct 19 11:20 AM connorport wrote:
> unless the trend keeps moving upwards. Then you will see the day
> traders losing out and a higher percentage will hold for long which
> in turn will drive the price higher that much quicker. As you can
> see already this morning day traders have already marked .63 as a
> sell and panic selling ensued until the stock fell below .62 and
> then solid buyers brought it back up towards .63 again. Short interest
> is pulling out as well. Lets just see the stock value push over a
> dollar and go from there. I would love to see a R/S at the $1.25
> to $1.50 level at say 10/1 which would put the stock out of range
> and in the institutions hands. I just want to see some solid ground
> being made before we throw in the towel here.
90 percent of the American public are clueless of this company
its true -try the public out
woundnt energy be better spent hounding/flooding them ie the company via email and phone calls to investor relations then jabbering re r/s?
i even saw a commercial this weekend for rapsody.com
pitiful
On Oct 19 02:19 PM dead elvis wrote:
> How can a company swallow the cost of a rocket/launch and not find
> the pennies to advertise.The entire thing makes no sense.
>
> 90 percent of the American public are clueless of this company<br/>
>
> its true -try the public out
>
> woundnt energy be better spent hounding/flooding them ie the company
> via email and phone calls to investor relations then jabbering re
> r/s?
>
> i even saw a commercial this weekend for rapsody.com
>
> pitiful
Marketing comes to the consumer sir- not the other way around.
Marketing comes to the consumer sir- not the other way around.
On Oct 19 03:10 PM R A F wrote:
> If you want to see some effective marketing, go to Satwaves.com and
> you will be updated.
On Oct 19 11:20 AM connorport wrote:
> unless the trend keeps moving upwards. Then you will see the day
> traders losing out and a higher percentage will hold for long which
> in turn will drive the price higher that much quicker. As you can
> see already this morning day traders have already marked .63 as a
> sell and panic selling ensued until the stock fell below .62 and
> then solid buyers brought it back up towards .63 again. Short interest
> is pulling out as well. Lets just see the stock value push over a
> dollar and go from there. I would love to see a R/S at the $1.25
> to $1.50 level at say 10/1 which would put the stock out of range
> and in the institutions hands. I just want to see some solid ground
> being made before we throw in the towel here.
The question remains did you make money on your call? Or was this just a shot in the dark?
On Oct 19 04:44 PM zedmore wrote:
> I called it last week for those who can remember 60 cents by weeks
> end. mid 70's leading up to 3rd quarter and $1.00 by the end of the
> year.
Any realistic way of eliminating the millions of shares lent specifically for shorting? A split doesn't solve that.
Cos and his "CANNOT" can mislead a lot of readers. So there's nothing contractual or legal preventing a split?
The day the stock hits $1 the reverse split will be announced. There are way too many shares outstanding. Too too too many!
Keep buying so you end up with a good amount of 100 shares blocks to play sell open calls.
Anyone who thinks the split shouldn't happen until February probably has sold sell open call for January 2010. Tryin to convince us differently.
I guess we will wait for them until the suntan oil and two carbon fragments run out.
WILL THE INCREASE IN I PHONE SALES BY APPLE AND THEIR RELEASE IN CHINA HAVE ANY IMPACT ON SIRI'S 3RD 4TH QUARTER CONFERENCE CALLS?
snooooooooze.
Because the real news will be did SIRI turn the corner in 3Q. The bonus would be a solid profit in 4Q.
The gentleman (his name eludes me) from S&P believed SIRIXM will be at $1 by year end, do you disagree with his expertise in Media Stock. He has been correct since he stated the stock would hit $ .50.
Why would you risk any outside chance of bad news and not act on good news immediately?
You confuse me. I can tell by your comments you are very intelligent, but on this point there is inconsistency in your comments.
On Oct 20 09:50 AM R A F wrote:
> The favorable impact of all developments now coming on line (Apple
> iPhone and iPod Touch explosive sales, coupled with SkyDock potential)
> will not really be felt until 4th Qtr. release in February. In my
> opinion - any talk of a reverse split should definitely be put on
> hold until this favorable impact is realized in February and then
> see where SIRI is at that time. I think it is premature to be considering
> any reverse split until the benefits of current developments are
> realized in early 2010. SIRI could be trading well above 1.00 by
> March so reverse split pricing may be significantly more favorable
> at that time.
On Oct 20 10:09 AM Pell wrote:
> RAF, honestly and I do not wish to insult you. But did you sell open
> calls for January when SIRIXM was trading in 70s back in August?
>
>
> Because the real news will be did SIRI turn the corner in 3Q. The
> bonus would be a solid profit in 4Q.
>
> The gentleman (his name eludes me) from S&P believed SIRIXM will
> be at $1 by year end, do you disagree with his expertise in Media
> Stock. He has been correct since he stated the stock would hit $
> .50.
>
> Why would you risk any outside chance of bad news and not act on
> good news immediately?
>
> You confuse me. I can tell by your comments you are very intelligent,
> but on this point there is inconsistency in your comments.
On Oct 19 04:19 PM jmsithy wrote:
> I think you mean 1 to 10 for the reverse split if you said 10/1 that
> would give you 10 shares of common stock for every 1 share you own
> then that would not be a reverse split just a normal split you are
> not getting more shares but less at a higher price so if you own
> 10 shares you would only get 1 nice shinny share
His predictions are on par w/Creamer
On Oct 20 10:09 AM Pell wrote:
> RAF, honestly and I do not wish to insult you. But did you sell open
> calls for January when SIRIXM was trading in 70s back in August?
>
>
> Because the real news will be did SIRI turn the corner in 3Q. The
> bonus would be a solid profit in 4Q.
>
> The gentleman (his name eludes me) from S&P believed SIRIXM will
> be at $1 by year end, do you disagree with his expertise in Media
> Stock. He has been correct since he stated the stock would hit $
> .50.
>
> Why would you risk any outside chance of bad news and not act on
> good news immediately?
>
> You confuse me. I can tell by your comments you are very intelligent,
> but on this point there is inconsistency in your comments.
Again thats why I vote for after 3Q results. The analyst in all industries have been very conservative with this predictions (To regain creditability) this might not last into the new year. Why are all these companies blowing expectations out of the water? Could it be analyst are afraid to take a real chance and make a real prediction.
All these items could have an adverse effect in 4Q. Again even though SIRIXM numbers will be good.
On Oct 20 10:29 AM R A F wrote:
> Pell - I do not use options in conjunction with my positions. I am
> significantly long SIRI (outright) and believe any talk of a reverse
> split should await the early impact of favorable developments that
> are now unfolding. These benefits will not show up in 3rd Qtr. figures
> and the markets are now looking forward to 4th Qtr. figures (to be
> released in February) - which should keep SIRI tending toward the
> upside through this period. I just do not see the rush to have a
> reverse split before this can maximize potential - which should tend
> to build beyond yearend and into 2010.
Lets play a game-see if you can get a p value less then .05
Siri Nov 4th-at close- price?
Nov5th-at close-
Dec31st- at close-
One week before delisting if no R/S-
Two days before delisting if no R/S-
One day before delisting if no R/S-
R/S announced 10:1-close on that day-
R/s Announced 50:1-close on that day-
Siri Dec 31st 2010-
company taken private-price
company bought out merged-price
knock yourself out. I am curious with all you have written what you predict.