JPMorgan (JPM) is scheduled to release Q3 earnings this Wednesday October 14th, before the market open.
Average analyst estimates for the leading bank are $.49/share in EPS and $24.81 billion in Revenue. Twenty analysts track the stock with ten upward EPS revisions in the last 30 days and one downward EPS revisions in the last 30 days.
Last quarter, JPMorgan beat average analysts expectations by .24/share or 600%, .28/share vs. .04/share.
I always find this a tough period waiting to see if the company is going meet, exceed, or miss their earnings estimates. One thing I have discovered of value is to analyze sentiment moves in a stock ahead of the company’s earnings release. In the case of JPMorgan, I will use the Piqqem sentiment index for JPMorgan to see how sentiment has changed in the last quarter, for the months within that quarter, and from the end of the reporting quarter thru today.
I’m looking for moves or changes that may foreshadow the earning release. (Piqqem leverages the ‘wisdom of crowds’ by allowing its users to vote on the price direction of a stock and then applies its own propriety factors to calculate sentiment for a security. In their model, 0 is the lowest and 4 is the highest sentiment).
Sentiment for JP Morgan
30-Jun-09 | 31-Jul-09 | 31-Aug-09 | 30-Sep-09 | 12-Oct-09 | |
JPM | 2.67 | 2.82 | 2.83 | 2.69 | 2.74 |
S&P 500 | 1.59 | 1.76 | 1.98 | 2.23 | 2.36 |
Source: Piqqem
The above chart shows JPMorgan’s sentiment remaining in a narrow band between 2.6 and 2.8. The chart also shows that sentiment for the S&P 500 is gaining ground on JPMorgan which indicates that overall market expectations are catching-up. The chart also shows a 2% increase in sentiment from the end of Q3 thru today.
This last indicator has historically been the most accurate indicator regarding an earnings surprise, both upside and downside. On the Piqqem scale, JPMorgan’s sentiment rating of 2.74 is considered a buy and absolute sentiment indicates a quality stock. Only JPMorgan knows their actual results, but their current sentiment points to JPMorgan releasing earnings above $.49/share.
Disclosure: No positions
