Earnings Preview: Harley-Davidson

| About: Harley-Davidson, Inc. (HOG)

Harley-Davidson (NYSE:HOG) is expected to report Q3 earnings before the market open on Thursday, October 15 with a conference call scheduled for 9 am ET.


Analysts are looking for a profit of 21c on revenue of $1.1B. The consensus range is 6c-37c for EPS, and revenue of $1.07B-$1.14B, according to First Call. In July the company reported a 91% profit decline and said it would cut 700 jobs. In addition, the company lowered its 2009 shipment expectations, saying it plans to ship 30% fewer motorcycles than in 2008. The Wall Street Journal reported in August that Harley-Davidson may be able to offset shrinking demand in the U.S. by tapping the fast-growing Indian luxury market. The motorcycle maker, which recently named interim CFO John Onlin as the permanent CFO, could report improving sales for the quarter.

Analyst Views

Based on channel checks, Citigroup analyst Gregory Badishkanian said July sales fell 30% and August sales were down about 15%-20%, and noted that the improvement in August could signal Harley has "turned the corner from a sales perspective." RBC Capital believes near-term data points could provide upside in shares, though it does have longer term concerns. UBS said it remains cautious on 2010 unit growth and gross margins. Analysts and investors will listen for details on 2010-2011 shipping expectations, as well for results of the HDFS unit.