E*Trade Shows Bullish Signals

E*Trade (ETFC) has earnings due on the 27th of this month. I will hold my position as I believe ETFC will beat the current $0.08 loss estimate. Analysts should reiterate buy ratings and likely raise estimates. Investors could see ETFC stock price trade over $2 a share after the earnings report.

On September 24th, ETFC one month by daily candlestick chart had turned bearish when using technical indicators. As per ETFC $1.79 close on Thursday, the chart has turned bullish and given a buy signal with strong money flow moving in. ETFC stock price should trend into the high $1.80 to low $1.90 area over the next 5 trading days as per my chart program.

It seems Citadel has finished converting its ETFC debt into class A shares and then selling the shares on the open market. Citadel last sell of ETFC stock was October 8th.

ETFC options are bullish with the November $2 Call options trading at $0.15 along with the January 2010 $2.50 Call options.

ETFC could get a takeover offer any day. I firmly believe ETFC will be bought before the end of the year.

Disclosure: Long ETFC.

Comments

[dad_is_board:]

Give it a rest Jeremy. You endlessly pump E-Trade for your own personal gain, presenting wishfull thinking as "facts". It is bad enough reading your drivel on the Yahoo message boards, without you fouling up Seeking Alpha.

Oct 16 07:33 AM

[effeff63:]

I'm ready....short the April ETFC $2 calls with a 20% premium.

Oct 16 09:57 AM

[Rick in Qatar:]

@dad_is_board: Is the hostility really necessary OR helping you make your point? Jeremy is very "up front" that he is long on ETFC and that says enough.

Honestly, given the financial crisis and as many ETFC shares as are outstanding PLUS the Citadel influence, I'd have to say I welcome any and all "commentary" on E*Trade.

I don't see Jeremy morphing commentary to "facts" as you do. Be a man and state the abuses specifically, with references, or stand down and chase some other demon you may have.

I, too, have a long position in ETFC -- 10K shares. Insignificant but what I'm willing to dabble in a risky venture like this.

I love E*Trade. It is the best of the majors by far. If they exceed the consensus then I've done my part as a "pattern day trader". That darn bank and bad mortgages are its death. Citadel is far smarter than me. EFFEFF63 is far braver than me -- options are scary things in this market.

So, I too, am hoping for a bump up in ETFC.

Oct 16 10:50 AM

[protrader101:]

DAD_IS_BORED not board get your ID correct O.K! did you cover your short position yet? I know you shorted and have a little loss. I covered & went long. ETFC will rally ahead of earnings. GS will likely reiterate


On Oct 16 07:33 AM dad_is_board wrote:

> Give it a rest Jeremy. You endlessly pump E-Trade for your own personal
> gain, presenting wishfull thinking as "facts". It is bad enough
> reading your drivel on the Yahoo message boards, without you fouling
> up Seeking Alpha.

Oct 16 01:06 PM

[User 488509:]

OK,can we take down your RED ALERT from 3 weeks ago??

seekingalpha.com/artic...

Oct 16 02:04 PM

[mr.verymuch:]

ETFC has been trying to make a meaningful move up for a long, long time. Can't say i have a ton of faith at this point

Oct 16 04:27 PM

[protrader101:]

Jeremy Richards Article ETFC: Time to go long was June 24th stock was $1.23 he said it would see $2 he got it correct! seekingalpha.com/artic...

You must be short ? be smart cover & go long


On Oct 16 02:04 PM User 488509 wrote:

> OK,can we take down your RED ALERT from 3 weeks ago??
>
> seekingalpha.com/artic...

Oct 16 05:11 PM

[lucky lenny:]

Jeremy, not sure about beating the qtr's .08 loss estimate. However, E-trade is at $1.75. Here’s what I like about the stock and why I’m holding:

• Loss provisions are moderating on a quarte-over-qtr basis. Per the 9/15/09 press release, E-trade is projecting a provision for loan loss of between $300-$375 mill; vs. $404.5 mill in 2Q09 - so the provision is moderating

• stock market is back on the upswing; w/ the DOW now over 10k

• despite advertising expense being cut in half, new a/c openings are strong; with a record 2.7 mill brokerage a/c’s as of 8/31/09

• Per the 2Q09 income statement, interest income, commissions, fees, and other revs are tremendous; running around $350 mill/qtr

• E-trade is getting its groove back on. Advertising costs coming down, in 2Q09, only $25.0 mill vs. the usual $44 mill or so. Tells me they’re over the whole meltdown debacle issue.

• Per 2Q09 Balance Sheet, E-trade looks to have enough capitial to weather a few more qtrs & even years of losses; with $6.7 bill in cash & investments; and net equity of $3.0 bill. Not that they’ll have these large losses; just that if they did, they’re still coming back w/out going Chapter 11.

• And finally, the #1 reason, is E-trades 2.7 mill brokerage a/c’s which could lead to a takeover. Even w/ the 662 mill shs o/s (diluted), I think E-trade’s trading platform, name recognition, tax loss carry-forwards, and customer bases would result in an offer of around $5-10/share. Especially if E-trade could become breakeven or profitiable before the buyout.

Oct 17 02:29 AM

[atsmusic:]

$10 a share? So you value Etrade at around 25 Billion dollars lmao

Oct 21 04:09 AM