How to Play the Next Great Bull - Matt McCall

By Lara Crigger

The author of ‘The Next Great Bull Market' shares his thoughts on how investors can play the coming commodities boom.

• Why he's still in UNG
• Bull market benefits base metals, gold and oil
• How (and why) investors should play lithium

Commodities are on a tear lately—and by all signs, they're only headed higher, says Matt McCall, author of the upcoming book, "The Next Great Bull Market" (Wiley, November 2009). And now, he adds, is the perfect time for investors to jump in.

Mr. McCall is the founder and president of Penn Financial Group, LLC, and co-author of 2009's "The Swing Trader's Bible: Strategies to Profit from Market Volatility." A vocal advocate of ETF investing, he's also a regular commentator on CNBC, Fox Business Network, Fox News Channel and Bloomberg.

Recently, HAI associate editor Lara Crigger sat down with Mr. McCall to discuss his thoughts on the bull market for commodities, including which sectors stand to benefit, why he likes UNG and lithium, and why he's not worried about tough talk from the government on regulation.

Lara Crigger, associate editor, HardAssetsInvestor.com (Crigger): When we last spoke back in March, you said you were laying low on commodities. As the recovery has strengthened, have you become more heavily invested?

Matt McCall, founder & president, Penn Financial Group (McCall): Yes, actually, commodities are the sector I'm most heavily invested in right now; my three largest holdings are gold, silver and natural gas. But I have been adding to everything from precious metals to energy to base metals.

Crigger: Natural gas? Even with inventories at record highs?

McCall: Yes. I believe we're going to have a much colder winter; a lot of forecasters have been calling for that. I believe we're going to see a spike in natural gas between now, the end of winter and the first quarter 2010. I've been buying on every bit of dip that we have.

I've been buying UNG [U.S. Natural Gas Fund], which isn't the greatest vehicle, but it's easy for us to play it without having a futures account. Most people I've talked to are staying way away from UNG—in fact, they're shorting it. But I think that natural gas is going to pop, and when it does, the difference between the ETF and the actual futures price will narrow. UNG could pop at $15-$16 (it's currently trading at $11) in the next four-to-six months. If that's the case, there will be a very large percentage gain.

Crigger: In your book, you predict a coming "long-term commodities bull market." What do you see driving this trend?

McCall: It's a combination of three key factors. The first is longer-term inflation, which I believe could actually turn into hyperinflation in the coming years. Here in the U.S., we just continue to print money, and that's eventually going to catch up with us, and inflation's going to be a concern. Look back at history, thousands of years: Any time an empire flooded the population with currency, inflation was always the end result eventually. I think that's going to be the case here, too. And obviously commodities do very well in an inflationary environment.

Second, the U.S dollar hit a 14-month low recently. I think that trend will continue, the way our government is going; they want to have a weaker U.S. dollar, as far as exports are concerned. I don't really believe in that, but I think that's the way we're going. And commodities also do well with a weaker U.S. dollar.

Third, I believe the global economy has turned. We were in a recession, but I think we're well on our way out of it. Countries such as Brazil are already out of the recession. That's going to create a greater demand for base metals and energy.

All three combined would give us an amazing bull market for the next five-to-10 years. Even two of the three would still get a bull market. So I think you're really set up with those three key factors, fundamentally speaking. Technically, we've been in an uptrend for several years now; I don't see that momentum stopping.

Crigger: Which commodities do you think will perform best in this bull market?

McCall: I really like base metals; they're one of my largest holdings. I invest through DBB [PowerShares DB Base Metals Fund], you know: copper, aluminum and zinc. The reason I like that is you're going to need copper for the build-out. China is still growing steadily, as well as India and other BRIC countries. So demand for copper will continue, and that's a great way to play it.

Another one is, obviously, gold. I'm pretty heavily invested in gold; GLD is my biggest holding, at this point. It's going to be more of an inflation play than a play on the global economy turning around. But it's also hedging. If I'm wrong, and the global economy falls apart, gold turns into a safe haven as well.

We also own GDX (Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF) and individual gold stocks as well. One of our largest holdings, as far as individual stocks, is Goldcorp. You want to have a little diversification. The term I use in my book is "conversification": You concentrate on commodities, but within it, you diversify, getting a little exposure to miners, the futures, and so on. You can get exposure to a little bit of everything through ETFs.

So that's two. Three, finally, there's going to be oil. We hit nearly $150 as the all-time high on crude, and I think we'll probably hit that again as demand picks up, and the global economy starts on all cylinders again.

Crigger: In this environment, which commodities—if any—will lag?

McCall: It's going to be tough to say which ones will not do well. But one that's lagged recently has been the ags. Just in the past week or so, they've been coming back, but this year, they really haven't had the performance of something like energy. It's a wild card.

But just this week I've been thinking very heavily about putting some money back into the agriculture ETFs. There is a nice value here, and we had a drought in Australia, one of the worst droughts in the history of the country, sending wheat prices higher. So wheat, corn and soybeans could take off. If that's the situation, then we could be looking at DBA (PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund), which is sitting at a very nice value price over time.

I don't know that there are any commodities that I do not like, but some will lag others. I'd rather be diversified throughout all of them, have a little piece of all of them in my portfolio.

Crigger: Do you recommend any out-of-the-ordinary commodity plays that investors may not have already considered?

McCall: Something that I do own is plays for lithium. I don't know if people often consider lithium a commodity, but it really is. It's a long-term story, and eventually we're going to see a supply crunch when it comes to lithium.

The reason I love lithium goes back to lithium-ion batteries. As we move toward electric cars—and I really believe we'll move toward electric cars in the future—we're going to see greater demand for lithium. Yes, there's lithium in the laptop I'm using and the cell phone I'm talking on, but the amount needed for cars is much higher than for the smaller electronic components that we already use. Now, there's no guarantee that the lithium-ion battery will be the only battery for electric cars, but right now, it looks like a viable alternative.

So three companies at the forefront of the lithium angle: FMC Corp (NYSE: FMC), which is a major chemical company and the third-largest lithium supplier in the world; SQM (NYSE: SQM), which is based in Chile and also has exposure to agricultural chemicals, so you get exposure to both; and Rockwood Holdings (NYSE: ROC), the largest lithium supplier in the world. I own FMC and SQM for my clients, and I've been looking to buy more on any type of weakness.

Crigger: There's been a lot of talk in the government about increasing regulation over the commodities market. How would increased regulation impact the U.S. position in this commodities bull market?

McCall: What it would do is really hurt the ETFs, depending how ETFs react. But I'm not as concerned as a lot of people are when it comes to the potential regulation. At the end of the day, it makes a good sound bite for them to say, "We're going to regulate this and knock out the 'speculators.'"

But most people who actually are in the know about the commodity markets—or any markets, for that matter—know that speculators are needed to make the market; without speculators, there is no market. So I'm not too worried. It's just a lot of talk from the government; we've been promised a lot of changes that we're not seeing. If it does happen, we'll probably add more bureaucracy to the situation, but as long as you're on the up and up, I don't think it's going to affect the markets much at all.

Comments

[market ace:]

Great advice in here with a few exceptions.

I think GLD is a terrible risk and probably does not own the gold they say they do so someday that will be exposed.

For a balanced exposure to all commodities I like GCC, which has an equal allocation to all. It is not exciting, but rides the commodities boom and protects against a falling dollar.

It is still difficult to say how much of the commodities boom is real profit and how much is just dollar decline, but at least it protects some purchasing power.

Oct 16 02:51 PM

[bobbybutte:]

I think that the dollar will drop but a better way to hedge in my opinion is large cap multinational equities

Jeremy siegel stresses the power of reinvested dividends and 97% of the gain in the dow since 1900 was through reinvested dividends

Oct 16 03:10 PM

[Mayascribe:]

Two things about this interview gave me the heebeegeebees.

i) If this guy is so smart, why is he messing around with ETF's. Why not pick best of breed in each sector and not a basket of stocks of which some are underperformers. I do like the three lithium plays he did mention. Yet, I'll take my chances with Jaguar Mining (JAG), or Northern Dynasty (NAK), or Nova Gold (NG) going up in multiples much more than the Barrick's and Kinross's and the metals ETF's of the investing world. As for lithium, I'm betting that American Lithium Minerals (AMLM) is a multibagger more so than (SQM).

ii) Maybe he's right about a 10 year bull market, I hope so. But the myriad of debts this country is piling up will sooner or later have to be addressed. These millions, billions, trillions of debt make me highly wary of another meltdown. Possibly, we can escape future financial eclipse through the huge number of people worldwide who now can, or soon will be able to buy things that their parents never dreamed of, or were compltely unaware ever before existed.

Oct 16 03:51 PM

[The shark:]

oh boy!!! Mr McCall is definitely on the slippery slope of hope. If he is so heavily invested as one assumes by his commentary then he will soon be confronted with the wall of worry as his investments head "south". Mr McCall has a 5 to 10 year horizon so his predictions within this timeframe have a very high probability of being correct - however, before then there should be another period of strong correction (ie we should still go back and retest the March lows - probably below). The current Equity rally is "over cooked" which has created an over valued market - earnings are to a high degree "fudged" and more significantly propped up by overhead cutting - revenue income is still significantly down. Bear in mind earning estimates / guidelines are ridiculously low and do not reflect anything that would be classified as "recovery". Unfortunately, in the absence of any meaningful return from other investments, investors are forced to increase their risk threshold and place their funds into the market - clever money will either start to exit shortly or remain on the side until more clear cut evidence of "recovery". Cash is king and will remain so until the delationary bubble abates and is replaced with inflation - at this point, my guess 2 to 3 years down the road McCall will be right - BUT NOT NOW!!!!

Oct 16 04:15 PM

[Moon Kil Woong:]

I'm with Mayascribe. If he's bullish why does he focus on commodities that already ran up. Commodities are great for the start of a bull (which already happened only) or if there is a bubble with hyperinflation which is not bullish at all. Also sectoral stock makes much more sense as does raw commodity contracts if you're a pro which he infers he is.

Also as Mayascribe infers, there is a distinct lack of fundamental economic proof backing his bullish views. One should never overlook economics when investing, especially if you want to call a bull. To fail to do so makes your bull argument, well pun intended, pure bull.

Oct 16 04:30 PM

[WKMA:]

any thought of adding to your sccounts w/commodities,
well, how about 'dollar-cost-average' as you see fit.

Oct 16 05:33 PM

[Wildebeest:]

Even the nickel industry itself is cool on nickel at the moment. The aluminum industry is more bullish for reasons I can't fathom -- stockpiles in both nickel and aluminum are at decade highs. Zinc is forecast to be in deficit in the next 12-18 months so that is potentially good for prices (in real terms not weak dollar terms).

Base metals have risen because 1) the weak dollar 2) China bought extra copper in May/June (punters got excited and seem unable to distinguish between copper and the other base metals so they all went up) and 3) speculation of a return of global demand. ...and perhaps a 4th -- you have to put your money somewhere.

"The reason I like that is you're going to need copper for the build-out. China is still growing steadily, as well as India and other BRIC countries. So demand for copper will continue, and that's a great way to play it."


Rising stockpiles at a time of lower supply than 2008 is indicative of soft demand ...the opposite of what he is talking about. Sure if an when genuine global growth returns prices will rise ...sharply. But the China share of base metal consumption is nowhere near what its share in iron ore and coal consumption is. Therefore you need more than China (and BRI) to see genuine demand.

If you stick some money in a commodity and it rises 20% because the dollar fell 20% have you gained anything? We need global growth for "real" gains unless the free money causes a speculative bubble but that isn't investing that is roulette/musical chairs.

Oct 16 05:54 PM

[r_soles:]

one metal he did not mention is moly(molybedm) used in steel. If indeed there is a recovery this metal will be highly sought after. Look for thomson creek mines and for a junior ( moly mines@1.20 in Toronto)

Oct 16 08:54 PM

[bartpr:]

individual investors eventually drive the market. thus far money has flowed to bond investment as opposed to mutual funds. until they return, anyones guess, be wary of predictions.

Oct 17 08:35 AM

[Dopamine:]

Thanks for saying it, I totally agree with you.
I have an extra bet.
This is going to be a N recession, not a V, and not a W.
The dip is coming fast latest January 10 and once more the dollar is going to soar, Gold will hit its true 5000 price on the last leg of the N, in one to two years time.
There is a 100% chance Im wrong, but thats my bet.


On Oct 16 04:15 PM The shark wrote:

> oh boy!!! Mr McCall is definitely on the slippery slope of hope.
> If he is so heavily invested as one assumes by his commentary then
> he will soon be confronted with the wall of worry as his investments
> head "south". Mr McCall has a 5 to 10 year horizon so his predictions
> within this timeframe have a very high probability of being correct
> - however, before then there should be another period of strong correction
> (ie we should still go back and retest the March lows - probably
> below). The current Equity rally is "over cooked" which has created
> an over valued market - earnings are to a high degree "fudged" and
> more significantly propped up by overhead cutting - revenue income
> is still significantly down. Bear in mind earning estimates / guidelines
> are ridiculously low and do not reflect anything that would be classified
> as "recovery". Unfortunately, in the absence of any meaningful return
> from other investments, investors are forced to increase their risk
> threshold and place their funds into the market - clever money will
> either start to exit shortly or remain on the side until more clear
> cut evidence of "recovery". Cash is king and will remain so until
> the delationary bubble abates and is replaced with inflation - at
> this point, my guess 2 to 3 years down the road McCall will be right
> - BUT NOT NOW!!!!

Oct 17 09:31 AM

[The Chairman:]

I have to agree with The Shark on this, except the last line, before 2 to 3 years down the road arrives, McCall will have already 'Blown Up'.

Oct 17 10:12 AM

[Maximize401k:]

The main "takeaway" I got from this article had to do with "lithium-ion batteries" which I don't think was mentioned in the above comments. If you have not done so, just compare the size of a lithium-ion camera battery for a camera to the "old" style camera batteries (3+ yrs ago). Of course, miniaturization necessitates this.

The Toyota Prius, for instance, uses a Nickel-Metal-Hydride (NiMH) type of battery. The second-generation model battery is 15% smaller, 25% lighter, and has 35% more specific power than the first. See the top paragraph - the difference is more like 85% smaller for a camera battery.

Buying a Prius is probably a not so good investment because the technology will become outdated relatively quickly. Toyota says the cost of nickel has increased threefold in the past few years, largely because China is buying lots of it to make stainless steel. Also, lithium-ion batteries offer a higher power density that would allow a similarly powerful battery to be smaller and lighter.

But Toyota notes there are still some problems to be overcome before lithium-ion batteries are ready for prime time--at least in cars like the Prius. One is that the batteries have a dangerous tendency to catch fire. The second is that the life span of a lithium-ion battery in an application like the Prius can't yet match that of a NiMH battery. But neither of these problems seems insurmountable, as Toyota estimates lithium-ion batteries might be used in the Prius in as little as two or three years. For now, however, Toyota stands by the durability of its NiMH battery packs. And it doesn't plan on selling many replacements any time soon. (see consumerguideauto.hows.../ )

Oct 17 10:27 AM

[thotdoc:]

I believe there are several markets that one should be in...alternate energy, w-fi/cloud, commodities, PM, etc. All will do well.

Why stick with one sector other than to write a book? His selection of ETFs also tells us this is not a book for the average SA reader, more a book for main street retail investor.

Is it good advice? If a time line is 10-15 years, any scenario advice is good advice, depending on the day. In the next 15 years...Good lord, a lotta stuff is gonna happen.

I don't think you will maximize what is going to happen in the next 15 years with any idea you have today.

Oct 17 10:34 AM

[Tekton:]

Unbelievable.

1. This guy is talking about Lithium Ion, and Toyota has already made it quite clear that they will stay with the Ni batteries for the forseeable future because of the advances made with being able to clean the internal buildups, and the much lower price of production and reliability than that of Lithium.

2. Not a word about the biggest bull market already in ascent, Rare Earth Elements. This is so last year.

3. All the REE producers are either already mining or have the properties to mine gold, silver, tin, copper, lead, zinc ,and they are all Junior Miners. They won't be for long as the largest miners on the planet know full well that Rare Earths are absolutely essential to technology , and they will soon gobble up all the juniors they can.

This is the kind of "foresight" that keeps investors always one step behind the curve.

Oct 17 10:59 AM

[Northstar10000:]

The dollar is going to take out 80 on an upside move that will surprise everyone and cost a bundle to those who bet on oil/gold trade.
The article is two moves off the mark.

Oct 17 02:37 PM

[Maximize401k:]

In the mid-1990's the promise of hydrogen fuel-cells were all the rage. Ballard Power Systems (BLDP), which is in that business, went public in early 1999 near $30, and in the first quarter of 2000 shot up to a high of $145. The first quarter of this year it was trading for 85 cents.

A123 Systems (AONE) went public at $17 last quarter, and went to a high of $28.20., closing this week at 23.52. They are in the rechargeable lithium-ion batteries business. How sustainable this business will be, time will tell.

Boone Pickens (see en.wikipedia.org/wiki/...) invested a couple of billion U.S. dollars in quixotic windmills (not the romantic kind), and his net worth went from about $3 billion to approx. $1 billion (see pickensplan.com).

Tekton, rather than ranting, could you please provide a reference re: your assertion, "Toyota has already made it quite clear that they will stay with the Ni batteries for the forseeable future." Thanks.

Perhaps you may not have read the last paragraph of the post: <<But Toyota notes there are still some problems to be overcome before lithium-ion batteries are ready for prime time--at least in cars like the Prius. One is that the batteries have a dangerous tendency to catch fire. The second is that the life span of a lithium-ion battery in an application like the Prius can't yet match that of a NiMH battery. But neither of these problems seems insurmountable, as Toyota estimates lithium-ion batteries might be used in the Prius in as little as two or three years. For now, however, Toyota stands by the durability of its NiMH battery packs. And it doesn't plan on selling many replacements any time soon.>>

Oct 17 02:56 PM

[Albertarocks:]

On Oct 16 08:54 PM r_soles wrote:

> one metal he did not mention is moly(molybedm) used in steel. If indeed there is a recovery this metal will be highly sought after. Look for thomson creek mines and for a junior ( moly mines@1.20 in Toronto)<

r_soles, your comment was kind of quiet and might be overlooked because you didn't include any symbols.... but you're call on Moly Mines (MOL.TO) looks to me to be bang on the money. At least it's currently sporting a very nice chart that suggests it could be a multi-bagger. Nice find!

Thumbs up for you!

Oct 17 04:06 PM

[Tekton:]

Max 401, you made the same point. The forseeable future is whatever the time frame to work out the problems with the lithium battery, and secure a dependable, economically feasible supply of lithium. Meanwhile the nickel batteries can be augmented and further improved.
"But neither of these problems seems insurmountable, as Toyota estimates lithium-ion batteries might be used in the Prius in as little as two or three years. For now, however, Toyota stands by the durability of its NiMH battery packs. And it doesn't plan on selling many replacements any time soon.
Agreed none of these problems are insurmountable, and I would consider the "two or three years " you mention to be the forseeable future considering how rapidly these technologies change. The whole physical configuration of electric motors is being redesigned so the motors require less of the rare earths and simultaneously get lighter and more powerful.
If it sounded like a rant, it's just that in reading the interview I got a distinct impression of uninformed advice, especially when trying to look 10 years into the future. Didn't we hear similar rosy comments this time last year,walkng right into the teeth of a complete meltdown only weeks away?

Oct 17 06:10 PM

[rennert:]

The way the economy is going most of us will be taken the bus in a few years. It is unbelievable how every thing from groceries to doc and vet has gone up. What planet are those people living on that tell us there is no inflation? Of course their Butler is doing all their buying for them while they dine at the splendidly delicious Hedge Fund Cafe up in the sky overlooking Washington and Wallstreet..

Oct 17 09:06 PM

[Albertarocks:]

How To Play The Next Great Bull

Intriguing title! Without trying to sound smug, I think the best way to play the next great bull market is to wait for it to start, probably sometime in 2011. Then buy everything.

Oct 17 10:05 PM

[jockum:]

Cash is king. Well probably- but what kind of cash? so when i doubt, stay out- and therefore in some cash equivalent. One of the better bets historically is silver. It has a longer history of being a medium for money (i.e. shekels), and it has more industrial uses than gold (i.e. RF-ID tags). In regards to Lithium, there are some new batteries coming on the market next year, that matches and surpasses Lithium. Investor (the wallenbergs) in sweden owns it.

Oct 18 05:31 AM

[Albertarocks:]

On Oct 18 05:31 AM jockum wrote:

> Cash is king. Well probably- but what kind of cash? so when i
> doubt, stay out- and therefore in some cash equivalent. One of the
> better bets historically is silver. It has a longer history of being
> a medium for money (i.e. shekels), and it has more industrial uses
> than gold (i.e. RF-ID tags). In regards to Lithium, there are some
> new batteries coming on the market next year, that matches and surpasses
> Lithium. Investor (the wallenbergs) in sweden owns it.<

I couldn't agree more with your take on silver. But man... if anybody accepts the notion of RFID tags, their signing over the last remaining sovereignty they have... their freedom. George Orwell's world is alive and well, but I for one will never have an identification implant embedded in my sacred body. That notion is straight out of hell.

Oct 18 10:57 AM

[Tekton:]

When gold was at $850 in the 80's, silver was at $40 (the Hunt brothers had something to do with that) . That would put gold at roughly $1200-1400 in today's money, and silver in the 50's or 60's. Silver is around $18 today, which could give it some long legs.

Oct 18 03:19 PM

[Tekton:]

Though I have been investing in junior miners in Gold/Silver , and REE's, in this case, I will buy some silver metal.

Oct 18 03:37 PM

[woollyB:]

The book title says it all.

Dow 36,000 was a big hit in 1999.

Crash Proof and a dozen similar and hastily written titles were big hits in March.

Oct 18 04:21 PM

[Albertarocks:]

On Oct 18 03:37 PM Tekton wrote:

> Though I have been investing in junior miners in Gold/Silver , and
> REE's, in this case, I will buy some silver metal.<

Hey Tekton! I'm only now getting into REEs myself. I see you're from Montana. If I'm not mistaken, many years ago Montana was pretty busy with silver mining. Is that still the case today?

Oct 18 06:29 PM

[Tekton:]

Not so much Alberta. AGT was working a polymetal mine but closed it down early this year. Most others like Zortman and Pegasus bellied up and left a big mess. Stillwater Mine(SWC) is still producing PGMs.
Idaho is still a big silver producer.

Oct 18 09:35 PM

[Diegojames:]

There is talk of a silver battery....and zinc in batteries... but the Nickel metal NiMH battery is tops currently...chemical talk makes me dizzy since I studied it extensively and have a pharmaceutical science degree.
So remember the bio tech companies making new vaccines and treatments and the internet technology research companies to be bought by the major companies such as CISCO ....which looks good?
DBA ,CNG, Brazil mining company which could become Chinese property, TCK on dips because it sure was a money maker ....and GMO on any decent pull back...

Oct 18 09:50 PM

[john connor:]

Jeremy Siegel is a hack when it comes to economics and investing. He also encouraged everyone to buy financials and many other stocks at the peak of the market. Then his recent article about Keynesians vs Monterarists - he forgets Austrian which trumps them all and explains the crisis then, now and the greater one coming. Please don't use anything from that gentleman.


On Oct 16 03:10 PM bobbybutte wrote:

> I think that the dollar will drop but a better way to hedge in my
> opinion is large cap multinational equities
>
> Jeremy siegel stresses the power of reinvested dividends and 97%
> of the gain in the dow since 1900 was through reinvested dividends

Oct 19 12:35 AM

[john connor:]

Since we are near Halloween and the spirit that comes with it. You mention 1984. Well if you want more academics that will really scare the **** out of you, look up: Ecoscience and Brave New Word by Aldeous Huxley. Also Prof. Pianka will make your skin crawl and was praise and given the Texan Science Award. The all call for the culling of the human population by using bio weapons, food (deliberate) shorages, etc. Brave New World calls for a scientific dictatorship to be setup globally. Sounds crazy, but if you want to know what these crazy Malthusians are up to, and what Kissenger wrote in his 1973 white papers - read up. Makes for better campfire tales than any ghost stories, why? It is actually been written, thought, debated on, and planned by the "Elite". Time to have a glass of wine.


On Oct 18 10:57 AM Albertarocks wrote:

> On Oct 18 05:31 AM jockum wrote:

Oct 19 12:43 AM

[Matthew D. ...:]

You make 2 great points.

1) My firm, Penn Financial Group, invests in many individual stocks, but for the sake of the article the focus was on ETFs. I feel there is a need for exposure to both the futures (through ETFs) and the related commodity companies.

2) Yes debt in the US is an issue going forward, especially if we cannot stop printing money. This leads to my belief of hyperinflation in the future thus pushing commodity prices much higher.


On Oct 16 03:51 PM Mayascribe wrote:

> Two things about this interview gave me the heebeegeebees.
>
> i) If this guy is so smart, why is he messing around with ETF's.
> Why not pick best of breed in each sector and not a basket of stocks
> of which some are underperformers. I do like the three lithium plays
> he did mention. Yet, I'll take my chances with Jaguar Mining (seekingalpha.com/symbo...),
> or Northern Dynasty (seekingalpha.com/symbo...), or Nova
> Gold (seekingalpha.com/symbo...) going up in multiples much
> more than the Barrick's and Kinross's and the metals ETF's of the
> investing world. As for lithium, I'm betting that American Lithium
> Minerals (seekingalpha.com/symbo...) is a multibagger more
> so than (seekingalpha.com/symbo...).
>
> ii) Maybe he's right about a 10 year bull market, I hope so. But
> the myriad of debts this country is piling up will sooner or later
> have to be addressed. These millions, billions, trillions of debt
> make me highly wary of another meltdown. Possibly, we can escape
> future financial eclipse through the huge number of people worldwide
> who now can, or soon will be able to buy things that their parents
> never dreamed of, or were compltely unaware ever before existed.

Oct 19 04:56 AM

[Matthew D. ...:]

When it comes to fundamentals and support for them, the bottomline is earnings. This is why my firm, Penn Financial Group, focuses on individual stocks (across all sectors) that have been regularly increasing their top line (revenue) even as the global economic situation was struggling. After a major recession there will be winners and losers; the ultimate goal is to buy the stocks that will benefit from the pickup in growth following the recession. Just as every recession in the past has created new winners, this time will be no different.


On Oct 16 04:30 PM Moon Kil Woong wrote:

> I'm with Mayascribe. If he's bullish why does he focus on commodities
> that already ran up. Commodities are great for the start of a bull
> (which already happened only) or if there is a bubble with hyperinflation
> which is not bullish at all. Also sectoral stock makes much more
> sense as does raw commodity contracts if you're a pro which he infers
> he is.
>
> Also as Mayascribe infers, there is a distinct lack of fundamental
> economic proof backing his bullish views. One should never overlook
> economics when investing, especially if you want to call a bull.
> To fail to do so makes your bull argument, well pun intended, pure
> bull.

Oct 19 05:00 AM

[Maximize401k:]

On Oct 17 06:10 PM Tekton wrote:

> Max 401, you made the same point. The forseeable future is whatever
> the time frame to work out the problems with the lithium battery,
> and secure a dependable, economically feasible supply of lithium.
> Meanwhile the nickel batteries can be augmented and further improved.
>

Thanks Tek. It will be fascinating to see how this all plays out.

Maximus

Oct 19 10:59 AM

[Maximize401k:]

AONE (Li-ion company) - which I mentioned in an above comment last weekend is current "ripping to the upside" (wow, sounds like the late 1990's, doesn't it!). Anyway, now trading at 24.50.

Oct 19 11:06 AM

[Mad Hedge F...:]

ijn When everything is working, and my portfolio is firing on all 12 cylinders, I pinch myself and ask “Is this real? What can go wrong?” I’m reminded of the slave whose task it was to remind conquering Roman generals “All glory is fleeting.” Virtually all of my recommended core longs in gold, silver, Canadian, New Zealand, and Australian dollars, Brazil, Russia, India, South Korea, Taiwan, Vietnam, and junk bonds are at or near highs for the year. I called the bottom in Natural Gas within 40 cents, and mercifully baled on my one short in US government bonds, the TBT. What we are seeing is a global surge in liquidity as cash emerges from the bomb shelter, squints at the day light, and then rushes to buy the first thing it can find. Everything is going up, regardless of fundamentals. It is the proverbial tide that is lifting all boats. You can make a lot of money in these conditions, but there is no way of knowing if this will last for one week, or another year. But they can go on much longer than you think. In the last two liquidity driven markets I traded, Japan in the eighties and NASDAQ in the nineties, fundamental analysts railed against the tide for years, claiming that stocks were overvalued, each call getting their office moved ever closer to the elevator and men’s bathroom. When someone finally did throw the switch on these markets, it got dark amazingly fast. Tokyo went out at an all time high on the last day of 1989, and then dropped a staggering 45% in January. NASDAQ plunged just as fast from its 2000 top. The one thing we can all be certain about is that the survivors have vastly improved their risk control after our recent crash. Make hay while the sun shines, but keep your finger hovering over that mouse. The level of risk is definitely high than it was in March. When the next real downturn starts, it could resemble a flash fire in a movie theater.

Oct 19 11:23 AM

[Albertarocks:]

On Oct 19 12:43 AM john connor wrote:

> Since we are near Halloween and the spirit that comes with it. You
> mention 1984. Well if you want more academics that will really scare
> the **** out of you, look up: Ecoscience and Brave New Word by Aldeous
> Huxley. Also Prof. Pianka will make your skin crawl and was praise
> and given the Texan Science Award. The all call for the culling
> of the human population by using bio weapons, food (deliberate) shorages,
> etc. Brave New World calls for a scientific dictatorship to be setup
> globally. Sounds crazy, but if you want to know what these crazy
> Malthusians are up to, and what Kissenger wrote in his 1973 white
> papers - read up. Makes for better campfire tales than any ghost
> stories, why? It is actually been written, thought, debated on,
> and planned by the "Elite". Time to have a glass of wine.<

I've been on top of that for years John but I hope others read your message and check out all the suggestions you've given. You're absolutely right on all counts. Want to know something else stunning? Check out the science behind colloidal silver and the fact that it kills all viruses so far known to man including the man-made concoction farce known as H1N1. It would make all vaccines redundant and big pharma doesn't like that idea. So the FDA is trying to ban the production of it and ban it under the category of "pesticides". How insane these basterds are.

www.rense.com/CS/cs1.htm

Oct 20 11:37 AM

[Leser:]

Your comment, Albertarocks, included this: "Check out the science behind colloidal silver and the fact that it kills all viruses so far known to man including the man-made concoction farce known as H1N1. It would make all vaccines redundant and big pharma doesn't like that idea. So the FDA is trying to ban the production of it and ban it under the category of "pesticides". How insane these basterds are."
A very intelligent person I know did herself no favors taking colloidal silver years ago. Among other problems, I understand, from that regimen, she's now literally, and forever I suppose, blue/white in color.

Oct 25 03:22 PM