The Greatest Depression Is Coming 221 comments
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Good times will not be returning any time soon.
We continue to lose jobs month over month. And, while the statistics being released are showing a slow down, this is basically a fabrication. There are thousands of people falling off of unemployment compensation each week — none of them are reflected in the official numbers. Shadowstats.com estimates unemployment is above 20%. Take it for what you will, but these numbers are rapidly approaching the unemployment rate during the last well known depression.
Credit is contracting. The last decade in America has seen credit, or debt, however you want to look at it, essentially become a second income. No more. The banks may be getting billions in loans, but for the individual on the street, credit is frozen. Couple this with the loss of primary income streams and you have a lot of people with no money for even essential goods.
Foreclosures continue to mount. In addition to the foreclosures of the last 2 years, we have millions more in play right now, regardless of the mortgage programs the government institutes. Job Loss + Credit Contraction means there is no way millions of people will be able to make their monthly payments. Nowadays, once you lose your job, you aren’t going to have an easy time finding a new one that adequately services personal debt. In real terms housing prices are not done dropping. There are some conservative down-side estimates that say an additional 15% is likely. But, what if they are underestimating? What if it turns out to be 30%, or more? If we are in a depression, the downside is huge. Japanese real estate lost 80% (adjusted for inflation) in the 1990’s (and so did their stock market!). In some parts of the country, home owners would probably agree that the 45% their homes have already lost would constitute a depression.
Debt defaults keep rising. Bank of America just released their numbers and lost upwards of $2 billion dollars, due in part, to credit card defaults. This is not the sign of a healthy consumer. When a consumer defaults on a credit card, that is leading indicator that they will not get easy credit if they need it in the future. A default in 2009 is a big red flag for lenders. Empirically, this seems like it may be a leading indicator for continued credit contraction on the consumer side.
Small businesses are getting hit hard. Small business is the engine that runs the entire economy, employing around 70% of the workforce. Right now, they have no access to loans, and the consumer is drying up. To survive, they’ve had to cut costs significantly. The next step will be to cut jobs. Many have already resorted to letting people go. As much as owners may not want to let go of their people, they realize they have no choice at this point. Incidentally, many major corporations showing “better than expected” results employed these same strategies. But, the businesses themselves, not necessarily by choice, are perpetuating the negative feedback loop. As they lay off employees, more consumer income is destroyed, leading to fewer revenues across the board for a majority of businesses, big and small.
The Middle Class is holding on for dear life. If small business drives jobs and production, it is the middle class that drives consumption. And the middle class is getting hammered for all of the reasons mentioned above. Many middle class families are realizing, or will realize very soon, that their lifestyle choices are going to need changes. Cut out the gym and take a jog instead. Why pay $100 for cable when you can get similar, if not better, news and movies online for $30 a month? Is organic really necessary at the grocery store when one can save 30% buying the regular stuff we grew up on? Do I really need to get a new car when my 2005 Explorer is just fine? Why go out and spend $100 when dinner and a movie at home a couple of Fridays a month saves enough money to pay the electric bill? These and other questions are going through the collective mind of middle class America. They are desperately trying to avoid becoming a member of working or under class America. The initial step to maintain stability is the same as with small businesses - cut spending.
Visualize a car engine. When there is enough motor oil, the pistons are firing up and down rapidly and the system runs efficiently. When the oil dries up, the engine begins to deteriorate. It’ll go for a little while longer. And it’ll become much more violent and volatile each time it fires. Invariably the engine seizes up and fails.
What we see in many aspects of the system right now are pistons that are firing violently. First a crash in the stock market. Then trillions in bailouts. Then an historic and massive stock market swing in the other direction. We see individuals speaking out in public, on the airwaves and on personal blogs en masse about one topic or another. Whether it is rep-on-Obama or dem-on-Bush bashing, there are extreme levels of divisiveness and heated, sometimes violent clashes. The system is moving into extreme peaks and troughs at a much more rapid pace now than anytime in the last 50 or more years.
We are in the opening stages of the Greatest Depression, a term coined by Trends Forecast founder Gerald Celente. The next stage, as Mr. Celente has said, will be “like nothing we've ever seen in our life time.”
Welcome to the Greatest Depression.
Disclosure: Short BAC
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This article has 221 comments:
As long as there is a willingness to accept the reality of our situation, and to address the underlying root causes of the predicament, then any disaster may be averted.
And you're really collecting some great data to support your "The Middle Class is holding on for dear life." meme.
Put the tin foil hat down.
Good article.
Venndata, U6 is already at 17+% unemployment and many places like Fla are about 20% U-6, the old way of measuring it.
Many in Washington, wall street just don't know or want to know how bad main street has become. Another number that gov has badly made is inflation. For most people from 2000 to 2008 real inflation, what we actually paid for things has went up 100% which means our wealth has dropped 50%.
Now add our wages have barely increased and many have had a 40% pay cut in buying power. So those who think people spending is going to bring us out are fooling themselves. This is the same inflation, loss of real wealth that happened under Regean/Bush41.
The whole US is going to be completely changed by this debt, mismanagement and it's going to take a decade to recover from. Even more if repubs don't stop fighting it.
On Oct 17 07:18 AM Philly Jim wrote:
> The real economic disaster will come when Boeing, Lockheed Martin,
> Raytheon, SAIC, Exxon, Chevron, GE and other U.S. conglomerates follow
> in Halliburton's steps and relocate elsewhere. Elsewhere, is offering
> attractive incentives for talented and productive individuals and
> companies, not to mention better living conditions. Who would have
> ever imagined finding better living conditions outside of the U.S.A.?
Yeah, no kidding. Where your comment gets a little scary is when you talk about "social phenomenom that increase consumer capital". I don't know what kind of "social phenomenom" you're talking about, but the only decent long-term solution to "too much debt" is "spend less while you pay it off" or "declare bankruptcy". Either choice among consumers will solve the problem, and any OTHER choice will just create NEW problems. And as for the banks, instead of creating Japanese-style zombies (which is exactly what the Wall Street cronies in the Treasury department have done to our banking system), we should have crammed all of those banks' debtholders down to common, and presto: the balance sheets would have been fixed and the banks would be able to lend to creditworthy customers. This is what our disgusting Treasury department should have done instead of its Band-Aid bailouts.
On Oct 17 07:32 AM LilBob wrote:
> To me this is fear mongering, brought on by a lack of willingness
> to understand what's really going on in the economy. During the
> Bush administration we had an increase in the concentration of capital
> in the hands of the wealthiest Americans, just like we saw in this
> country during the "Robber Baron" age from roughly 1895 to the early
> 1930s. In a capitalist economy, there are two kinds of capital:
> investor capital and consumer capital-we can also refer to these
> two types of capital as supply capital and demand capital. When
> capital becomes too highly concentrated in the hands of investors
> while working class wages stagnate, we end up with a situation where
> sales decline generally while new more aggressive investment schemes
> are fabricated to create the illusion of increasing wealth for the
> investment class. The only solution to this problem is for social
> phenomenon that increase consumer capital-restore the consumer base-thereby
> making it possible for businesses to keep their doors open. The
> reason we are in a recession is because of several years of misperception
> on the part of the American public-people believed that their wealth
> was increasing and loaded up on debt when their actual wealth-as
> measured in wages and ability (from say, job benefits) to access
> critical services (such as health care) was in steep decline. <br/>
>
> As long as there is a willingness to accept the reality of our situation,
> and to address the underlying root causes of the predicament, then
> any disaster may be averted.
But wait a minute. Wasn't that the GWB philosophy that got us into this mess?
On Oct 17 07:32 AM LilBob wrote:
> To me this is fear mongering, brought on by a lack of willingness
> to understand what's really going on in the economy. During the
> Bush administration we had an increase in the concentration of capital
> in the hands of the wealthiest Americans, just like we saw in this
> country during the "Robber Baron" age from roughly 1895 to the early
> 1930s. In a capitalist economy, there are two kinds of capital:
> investor capital and consumer capital-we can also refer to these
> two types of capital as supply capital and demand capital. When
> capital becomes too highly concentrated in the hands of investors
> while working class wages stagnate, we end up with a situation where
> sales decline generally while new more aggressive investment schemes
> are fabricated to create the illusion of increasing wealth for the
> investment class. The only solution to this problem is for social
> phenomenon that increase consumer capital-restore the consumer base-thereby
> making it possible for businesses to keep their doors open. The
> reason we are in a recession is because of several years of misperception
> on the part of the American public-people believed that their wealth
> was increasing and loaded up on debt when their actual wealth-as
> measured in wages and ability (from say, job benefits) to access
> critical services (such as health care) was in steep decline. <br/>
>
> As long as there is a willingness to accept the reality of our situation,
> and to address the underlying root causes of the predicament, then
> any disaster may be averted.
The first step to recovery is to admit the problem. Having another pull off that bottle doesn't work.
Now what is your solution to this mess? Please tell!
Do I start buying up survival food and run to the mountains to live?
Somebody on Capitol hill please wake up. A weak currency only provides a very temporary boost to the exporters. It is the easiest quick fix but one with very painful side effect. Long term, a weak currency slowly but surely leads to the irrecoverable economic downfall of a country.
On Oct 17 07:18 AM Philly Jim wrote:
> The real economic disaster will come when Boeing, Lockheed Martin,
> Raytheon, SAIC, Exxon, Chevron, GE and other U.S. conglomerates follow
> in Halliburton's steps and relocate elsewhere. Elsewhere, is offering
> attractive incentives for talented and productive individuals and
> companies, not to mention better living conditions. Who would have
> ever imagined finding better living conditions outside of the U.S.A.?
This "analysis" is the flip side of the supply-sider critique of big government liberalism. By being selective about which time period is looked at, both extremes can claim economic success and blame the other for failure
On Oct 17 07:32 AM LilBob wrote:
> To me this is fear mongering, brought on by a lack of willingness
> to understand what's really going on in the economy. During the Bush
> administration we had an increase in the concentration of capital
> in the hands of the wealthiest Americans, just like we saw in this
> country during the "Robber Baron" age from roughly 1895 to the early...
In 1930, none of these things happened except the suckers rally and the yield curve. 2009Q2 GPD fell at annual rate of 1.0%. In 1930 GDP contracted 9% and there was a 10% deflation as well. In 1931 GDP contracted another 6% with another 10% deflation. In no way are we anything like the situation of 1930-3.
In every major depression (such as this article predicts) there was a huge stock market bubble and crash before the depression started. I was a lot more worried after the 2000 Nasdac crash.
On Oct 17 09:39 AM jay brebner wrote:
> the richest 10% drives consumption not the middle class. the middle
> class buys what it needs but the upper class buys what it wants.
> I believe it is something like 50% of consumption. while they have
> taken a hit as well there are a lot of toys/assets to buy now at
> lower prices and if they were smart they'd be buying it all up starting
> now.
On Oct 17 10:44 AM Angel Martin wrote:
> "This "analysis" is the flip side of the supply-sider critique of
> big government liberalism. By being selective about which > time period is looked at, both extremes can claim economic > success and blame the other for failure"
What/whom will provide and apply the defibrillator?
How and when can this be done when the US Senate behaves like the worst of the politburos?
When the House of Rep.s are mainly in preparation for their upcoming lobbying job?
When the Treasury and FED are the Banksters free money making machine at zero interest rates?
When the average American hasn't a clue about any of this, and a lot less.
When those that do understand are either profiting/gaming the system or are at war with each other ideologically/politica... or for some other reason.
When the Corporate media successfully and profitably plays Americans for fools every single day.
When the systematic destruction of our currency is deemed to be one of our only "solutions".
The list could go on for many pages.
Yes , we are entering a Greater Depression, and are in the beginning stages of it.
It's been a long time coming, but for most Americans , the future is now.
1.Banks closed and any money that you had on deposit vanished
2. The Bank/Sheriff foreclosed on a home and physically removed you. the same day.
3. There was little work and any work was to put food on the table.
Sometimes that food was 1 chicken to feed 6 people at super.
4. Heat was from a wood burning stove and at night a warmed brick from the stove was placed under a blanket provided a small amount of warmth.
5. 5 to 6 people would share one bedroom and one bathroom ( a sink and a wash tub) with water from the well and cast iron pump.
6. The toilet was outside
7. Mustard and lard sandwiches were common. Potatoes were a main staple.
8. Kids walked to school as much as 5-6 miles each way. There were no snow days.
9. Colds were cured by a dose of kerosene
10. At Christmas one orange in the stocking was greeted with joy.
GET THE POINT?
There were no fat people, no food stamps, no unemployment benefits, no health insurance no social security benefits, and no disability benefits when you got hurt or killed at work ....blah, blah, blah....
But when things get bad don't underestimate the generosity of the common folk, the poor, the middle class and a few of the upper class They will help and share to the best of their ability. Only the rich bastards who want to use a "THE GREATEST RECESSION" for personal benefit will die from loneliness or some debilitating disease or social disorder (riot/burning etc).
Do you still think the current economic cancer be declared a DEPRESSION?
I just finished reading and commenting on an article about unintended consequences. I'd like to suggest one very plausible unintended consequence I've not yet seen discussed. There has been much publicity about recent actions by banks who are widely cutting credit-card limits to the amounts currently outstanding on the account. I'm betting that many stressed consumers have been paying their monthly minimums with an eye to keeping available the unused credit in that account. With that buying power increasingly being removed, I would not be surprised to see an acceleration in non-payments on credit cards.
Indeed, I'm beginning to wonder about the possibility of a massive revolt by middle America triggered by this thought process: "I'm not going to be able to obtain additional credit or preserve a good credit score anyway, so why not follow the advice of a rapidly expanding field of debt consultants urging people to walk away from their debts or to settle such debts for twenty cents or less on the dollar?" On a news broadcast this week, there was an item about a person who had stopped paying on her mortgage early this year and still has not received a foreclosure notice. She's been living rent-free and presumably doing her part to support surprisingly strong retail sales through the additioinal buying power her debt-avoidance has made possible. How long before such anecdotal evidence becomes an accepted tactic for economic survival?
On Oct 17 09:32 AM Pauly B wrote:
> You have done a great job laying out your case and not that I dont
> disagree on many points.
>
> Now what is your solution to this mess? Please tell!
>
> Do I start buying up survival food and run to the mountains to live?
(Source: Chicago Tribune)trackingBy Sandra M. Jones, Chicago Tribune
Jun. 21--When do you know that the economy is on the mend?
When the wealthy start spending again. And the rich aren't expected to start digging into their Birkin bags anytime soon.
The luxury market, historically resilient to economic downturns, is forecast to drop an unprecedented 10 percent this year, according to a June report from Bain & Co. The Boston-based firm predicts purveyors of luxury goods won't experience a full recovery until 2012.
Keeping an eye on the spending of the rich is a favorite American pastime. But it is also key to the economic recovery, said Ron Kurtz, president of the American Affluence Research Center.
The richest 10 percent of U.S. households account for as much as 50 percent of consumer spending, according to the center's calculations, based on Federal Reserve Board data. Consumer spending, in turn, accounts for about 70 percent of gross domestic product.
"The affluent market is a leading indicator of what's to come," said Kurtz. "Given their losses in the value of their homes, investment and savings that they have experienced over the past two years, the affluent are likely to be conservative spenders until these losses have been largely recovered."
Kirby
Our lifestyles are leveraged 30-1 against the laws of nature.
Our societal fabric is unraveling; and it's economic foundation a gigantic ponzi scheme using a fiat currency, vampire financial institutions, dependent underclass, tyrannical upper class, and a dissapearing middle class.
How that leads to a real recovery in markets, the economy, or life in general I can't fathom.
Appreciate the compliment, but sorry, I live in the wrong country.
On Oct 17 11:27 AM Buckoux wrote:
> Quoted below is the only intelligent and cogent opinion in both the
> article and the comments. Run for office , Angel, and I'll vote for
> you and/or donate to your campaign.
>
I finished reading it with all sorts of things to say - but the crowd of commenters above mostly covered all the bases. It seems I have become superfluous. : (
I will say, to ebworth, that not All of the upper class is tyrannical. I, for example, pay my taxes, don't take or solicit government handouts, and mostly tend to my own knitting. I ask nothing from my fellow man that I do not expect to pay for, save honest behavior. And if I am not rich enough to be "upper" in your estimation, then the middle is not disappearing quite so fast, is it?
At the risk of seeming cold-hearted, it seems to me that any disappearance of the middle class is substantially self inflicted, from acceptance of the advice of debt-mongers. My instincts, honed from years of poverty, pointed in another direction, and now I'm Just Fine.
On Oct 17 09:39 AM jay brebner wrote:
> the richest 10% drives consumption not the middle class. the middle
> class buys what it needs but the upper class buys what it wants.
> I believe it is something like 50% of consumption. while they have
> taken a hit as well there are a lot of toys/assets to buy now at
> lower prices and if they were smart they'd be buying it all up starting
> now.
On Oct 17 02:54 PM E Nuff Sed wrote:
> I just came back from a week in Vegas. The hotels and restaurants
> are full of tourists. Tons of canadian, chinese and south american
> tourists, Gambling halls are packed on the weekends. Obviously
> good deals abound. It's a jolly good "depression".
The problem comes when those who "make it" become actively or passively blind to the plight of the middle class.
Economic and political policies punish median income savers and the responsible, reward irresponsibility, and leverage it for votes and favorable policy.
The AMA, the legal establishment, the politicians, the financial oligarchs...the majority all look the other way or espouse concern when all they are really doing is biding time until they get what they need from the game.
Lip service is paid to the rights of the individual, the ethics of a cohesive society, and the rule of law; however, the reality is the KELO Supreme Court decision rescinding personal property rights, the bailouts, the subsuming of bond and stock holders for expediency and profit (WaMu, GM, etc.), government ownership and free money to benefit those who created the losses in the first place.
The collusion of a corrupt government and financial institutions with a complicit legislative branch is slavery with a garnishment of parsely neck of the average citizen yet heralded as the laurel crown of liberty and self-determination.
No doubt the French nobility pictured themselves as benevelont humanitarians and their peasantry as a contented mass of free and well fed citizens before reality was brought to their necks. The tragedy was that the good nobles died along side the wicked.
If we don't fix it now peacefully, it will fix itself later violently and many innocent and good people at all strata of society will suffer.
On Oct 17 02:38 PM Jasper M wrote:
> EXcellent article. Not flawless, but very, Very timely.
>
> I finished reading it with all sorts of things to say - but the crowd
> of commenters above mostly covered all the bases. It seems I have
> become superfluous. : (
>
> I will say, to ebworth, that not All of the upper class is tyrannical.
> I, for example, pay my taxes, don't take or solicit government handouts,
> and mostly tend to my own knitting. I ask nothing from my fellow
> man that I do not expect to pay for, save honest behavior. And if
> I am not rich enough to be "upper" in your estimation, then the middle
> is not disappearing quite so fast, is it?
>
> At the risk of seeming cold-hearted, it seems to me that any disappearance
> of the middle class is substantially self inflicted, from acceptance
> of the advice of debt-mongers. My instincts, honed from years of
> poverty, pointed in another direction, and now I'm Just Fine.
There are some real out of the box ideas floating out there, all with massive unintended consequences and without sufficient numbers to run charts and series. I don't even remotely agree with any of them for moral reasons, but the authors do see the extent of the problem. Because Social Security, Medicare and the Military are 75% of federal spending, the ideas are all so contra-social that short of civil war, revolution, or worse they won't happen. Examples are: 1. Printing enough money to pay of the debt. (COLAs everywhere would have to be eliminated first, and the countries that own our debt would have to be so convinced by demonstrable poverty that they'd see we could never pay them back with real money - or they would put frighteningly burdensome attachments to all our debt). Cut Social Security in half, no less.
Limit Medicare to patients that can go back to work after treatment. (Minor changes won't make it). Also do away with at least half of the military. Admittedly it is a huge employment firm, but the worst use of money is to blow it up while creating millions of lifelong enemies. 3. Eliminate ALL government pensions and retirement medical coverage starting now. That will take care of cutting back the military and most other government programs. 4. Outlaw the use of any "new" medical treatments on anyone, unless they are cheaper than the previous ones. Also outlaw current treatments that cost more per month than the average taxpayer makes. 5. After all the above still don't work, do away with the U.S. as a nation. Recreate another with pieces of others, selling off parts, putting greater spending and corruption restrictions on the new government.
All we got was to trade in our clunker cars and lip service. It's time to clean house folks we should be mad as hell and not going to take this anymore! do they think we're that stupid...
The reversion back to the cave after the total collapse of society will weed out most of the population who have never hunted, fished, gardened, or fixed an axel. The typical American only exercises and index finger utilizing a televion or vcr remote. As in the law of the jungle...only the fit will survive....and the poindexters will have to sell their gold to employ those with bodies capable of tilling, hauling, shoveling, and all other tasks that require physical strength and stamina. Darwinism shall prevail. This is no joke. Neanderthals will rule for a long time until a modern man can evolve. Meanwhile, Emerging Market Man will control the planet until his limbs wither.
Why can't you people ever understand that the poor will always be with us for a variety of reasons. Underprivileged...no. Undereducated...no. Undermotivated...yes. And the more your give other peoples money to the poor, the more poor you are going to have.
However, not matter how desperate and troubled an economy gets, it is always the fault of the capitalists. Hell, if weren't for the capitalists we would all still be living in caves...uh, perhaps that is what you secretly desire.
On Oct 17 07:32 AM LilBob wrote:
> To me this is fear mongering, brought on by a lack of willingness
> to understand what's really going on in the economy. During the Bush
> administration we had an increase in the concentration of capital
> in the hands of the wealthiest Americans, just like we saw in this
> country during the "Robber Baron" age from roughly 1895 to the early
> 1930s. In a capitalist economy, there are two kinds of capital: investor
> capital and consumer capital-we can also refer to these two types
> of capital as supply capital and demand capital. When capital becomes
> too highly concentrated in the hands of investors while working class
> wages stagnate, we end up with a situation where sales decline generally
> while new more aggressive investment schemes are fabricated to create
> the illusion of increasing wealth for the investment class. The only
> solution to this problem is for social phenomenon that increase consumer
> capital-restore the consumer base-thereby making it possible for
> businesses to keep their doors open. The reason we are in a recession
> is because of several years of misperception on the part of the American
> public-people believed that their wealth was increasing and loaded
> up on debt when their actual wealth-as measured in wages and ability
> (from say, job benefits) to access critical services (such as health
> care) was in steep decline.
>
> As long as there is a willingness to accept the reality of our situation,
> and to address the underlying root causes of the predicament, then
> any disaster may be averted.
On Oct 17 09:00 AM Dave Wrixon wrote:
> This is bound to happen. High debt means higher taxation. This will
> make the USA uncompetitive as a base. Most Multinationals already
> have their assets and workers scattered around the globe. Many even
> have off-shore stock listings. Why would they bring their profits
> "home" just to get hammered by tax. These organizations by definition
> have no fixed allegiances.
Why should millions of average, hard-working Americans suffer that fate? Washington puts endless debt, now blatantly including Wall St., on the taxpayer tab and our kids and grandkids must become slaves to them, while suffering under mandated, miserable government programs like cattle?
Healthcare can be solved with intelligent application of incentives and TORT REFORM. Many problems need just such intelligent application of, remember, free enterprise (not just a choice of crony capitalism or socialism).
Yes, this includes countless reductions in bloated government that we can't afford any more than the credit spending spree too many of us were on and government is kiting still, into the stratosphere. More government is guaranteed bondage for all future generations. Let's not increase the largest source of our troubles in the name of their phony "solutions."
On Oct 17 04:43 PM North Fork 427 wrote:
> Great comment Philly Jim; I'm fairly young, 36 and have worked extremely
> hard to get my small business going from nothing - went through a
> near bankruptcy, took on debt, paid it off, and now we are finally
> doing well (+/- $85M/yr in revenues) However, it seems as though
> we have played fair and outlasted the competition, made the right
> decisions etc. and my company and myself personally stand to be heavily
> penalized through corporate and personal taxing, as well as the Government
> imposed benfits through the current leadership. Just one thing left
> off of your list as why other places are more attractive - I'm really
> ashamed of our country's leadership and many of the recent legislative
> decisions. How would you like to be Ford or Farmers and have to
> compete against the U.S. Government; I really never thought legislators
> and lawmakers who create policy would in effect be the owners of
> such large business, and get to use my hard earned money to do it.
> So, other places aren't looking so bad, although 10 years ago I would've
> chose the Moon over any other Nation in the world.
This basic principle of economics was articulated often by Milton Friedman. If you want more of something (such as welfare, unemployment, etc.), increase the rewards for it. If you want less of something (productive enterprise, e.g.), increase the taxes on it. "Liberals" seem to have learned nothing from history, certainly not from economic history.
What is to be done? I have the answer: teach them to beg for money in Chinese. They can explain that their wise "elders", both consumers and investors, found a way to waste America's resources and now they, as the inheritors, are left with nothing, except for the IOU's written in a worthless currency, the dollar.
And while that is unfolding, the rest of us, Republicans and Democrats, lenders and borrowers, can devote ourselves to bickering over who should be blamed for the crisis.
The American Century is over. The American model is a proven failure.
On Oct 17 09:39 AM jay brebner wrote:
> the richest 10% drives consumption not the middle class. the middle
> class buys what it needs but the upper class buys what it wants.
> I believe it is something like 50% of consumption. while they have
> taken a hit as well there are a lot of toys/assets to buy now at
> lower prices and if they were smart they'd be buying it all up starting
> now.
On Oct 17 04:42 PM Spartacuss wrote:
Hell, if weren't for the
> capitalists we would all still be living in caves...uh, perhaps that
> is what you secretly desire.
It amazes me sometimes the retrograde Social Darwinist garbage that people spew when they don't really have any idea what I'm talking about. Spartacuss, and the rest of you who decided to hurl bile at me with little reason and even less understanding; if you don't understand the argument being presented then try a bit of rereading and contemplation before you start running your mouth. If you'd bothered to really read what I was writing you'd have realized that I am about as far away from being a Socialist as anyone could possibly be.
Angel Martin,
The 'ignored indicators' are yet to come. We have a real serious negative feedback loop that is in the making right now because of the unemployment/underempl... situation at hand and the delevaraging of debt. The worse is yet to come. :)
On Oct 17 11:05 AM Angel Martin wrote:
> This article simply ignores all of the indicators that precede EVERY
> recovery: stock market up, basic materials prices up, rising industrial
> production, falling employment losses, corp profits improving, steep
> yield curve, declining credit spreads, deflation stopped.
>
> In 1930, none of these things happened except the suckers rally and
> the yield curve. 2009Q2 GPD fell at annual rate of 1.0%. In 1930
> GDP contracted 9% and there was a 10% deflation as well. In 1931
> GDP contracted another 6% with another 10% deflation. In no way are
> we anything like the situation of 1930-3.
>
> In every major depression (such as this article predicts) there was
> a huge stock market bubble and crash before the depression started.
> I was a lot more worried after the 2000 Nasdac crash.
On Oct 17 09:01 AM logicalthought wrote:
> I don't know what kind of "social phenomenom" you're talking about,
> but the only decent long-term solution to "too much debt" is "spend
> less while you pay it off"
I will concede that I was a little more vaque than I should have been there. When I say "social phenomenon" I am referring to consumers thinking more like small business owners and being more critical of products and services that are made available to them.
On Oct 17 10:44 AM Angel Martin wrote:
> Another ideological argument that ignores the economic cycle.
Angel, if you'd bothered to really pay attention to what I wrote you'd realize that I wasn't ignoring the economic cycle, in fact I was describing the root cause of it.
What's gone on in the last three decades is that the executive class takes a huge share of productivity gains while average workers wages have fallen behind. However, simply recalibrating these imbalances won't solve all our problems because we don't want to encourage consumption the way they did in the 60s, it's unsustainable. We need to come up with a new macro economic model. In simple terms, we can either choose an hourglass model or a new utopia.
On Oct 17 09:39 AM jay brebner wrote:
> the richest 10% drives consumption not the middle class. the middle
> class buys what it needs but the upper class buys what it wants.
> I believe it is something like 50% of consumption. while they have
> taken a hit as well there are a lot of toys/assets to buy now at
> lower prices and if they were smart they'd be buying it all up starting
> now.
Many cannot leave the U.S., such as small business for example who will have to suffer, but major corporations can and will. That in turn may lead to an exodus of talent as well, if recruits from America's top schools are asked to come work overseas.
One may say the situation is a global one, but the US has the biggest uphill battle to climb when you look at debt, mandatory spending, and actual productivity.
Exactly the opposite was happening in the 1970's. So what caused the 1973-74 recession?
On Oct 17 10:44 AM Angel Martin wrote:
> Another ideological argument that ignores the economic cycle.
Angel, if you'd bothered to really pay attention to what I wrote you'd realize that I wasn't ignoring the economic cycle, in fact I was describing the root cause of it.
On Oct 17 06:43 PM LilBob wrote:
>
As economic analysis this is bad political stink! As political analysis it is even worse!
As for the comments, Is this a representative sample of US citizenry? Not at all! Americans are thoughtful, kind, educated. Those are the Americans that built the great country that you are.
Shame on you! I hope you are not investing this way....you will lose your shirts! Again!
I want to make one more comment on part of your quote and counter it item by item.
Your quote: "This article simply ignores all of the indicators that precede EVERY recovery: stock market up, basic materials prices up, rising industrial production, falling employment losses, corp profits improving, steep yield curve, declining credit spreads, deflation stopped."
The stock market is up mainly because a combination of the oversold condition brought on by the cascading forced liquidation we seen in the Fall of 08, the weak dollar and wishful thinking on the part of a lot of Pollyannas.
Basic material prices are up for almost the same reason as the stock market, but not quite. Basic materials are being used as a hedge against fiat currencies like at no other time in history, China is hording commodities while they are cheap and hedge funds are going with the momentum. That and not economic growth is what is driving up prices.
The Rising Industrial Production is only to restock the barebones inventories we have seen over the last few months. Expect to see a double dip here soon.
Falling unemployment losses? That's a good one. The unemployment figures are very misleading. They don't take into account those who have run out of benefits or the underemployed folks who had to take a job at half their previous wage. During the last recession there were two unemployed for every job opening; now there are six unemployed for every job opening. Not a good foundation for a 'V' shaped recovery.
Corporate profits have improved but not because of increased top-line growth. No, corporate America has been cost cutting to the bone. Where are the savings going to come from once all the fat has been cut away?
Steep Yield Curve: When the Fed has short term rate down to zero it's hard NOT to have a steep yield curve. Why does the Fed have it so low? So all our unhealthy banks can make easy money to help shore up their reserves. The is one of the reasons there is so much support at the long end of the curve. Just wait for the shoe that is about to drop in commercial real-estate! We are nowhere close in seeing a loosening in consumer credit and small business loans; just the fuel that is needed for a healthy recovery.
Declining credit spreads: This one does have some merit but you need to realize the extremes they are contracting from. As far as the 'Ted Spread' being an indicator of banking health this link can explain the 400% premiums being paid rather than the usual 10% better than I can: fdralloveragain.blogsp...
Deflation stopped? That all depends on what asset class you are talking about. We have a long way to go before you can make that kind of statement with any certainty.
On Oct 17 11:51 AM Ponchovilla wrote:
> I agree this will be the GREATEST RECESSION in our lifetime because
> most of THOSE who lived through the 30's have some form of Dementia
> or ALZHEIMER'S . Mom has neither and relates the following:
> 1.Banks closed and any money that you had on deposit vanished
> 2. The Bank/Sheriff foreclosed on a home and physically removed you.
> the same day.
> 3. There was little work and any work was to put food on the table.
>
> Sometimes that food was 1 chicken to feed 6 people at super.
> 4. Heat was from a wood burning stove and at night a warmed brick
> from the stove was placed under a blanket provided a small amount
> of warmth.
> 5. 5 to 6 people would share one bedroom and one bathroom ( a sink
> and a wash tub) with water from the well and cast iron pump.
> 6. The toilet was outside
> 7. Mustard and lard sandwiches were common. Potatoes were a main
> staple.
> 8. Kids walked to school as much as 5-6 miles each way. There were
> no snow days.
> 9. Colds were cured by a dose of kerosene
> 10. At Christmas one orange in the stocking was greeted with joy.
>
>
> GET THE POINT?
>
> There were no fat people, no food stamps, no unemployment benefits,
> no health insurance no social security benefits, and no disability
> benefits when you got hurt or killed at work ....blah, blah, blah....
>
>
> But when things get bad don't underestimate the generosity of the
> common folk, the poor, the middle class and a few of the upper class
> They will help and share to the best of their ability. Only the rich
> bastards who want to use a "THE GREATEST RECESSION" for personal
> benefit will die from loneliness or some debilitating disease or
> social disorder (riot/burning etc).
>
> Do you still think the current economic cancer be declared a DEPRESSION?
Why must there be a class of "workers" and a class of "spenders"? Why can't our economy work for EVERYONE?
On Oct 17 09:39 AM jay brebner wrote:
> the richest 10% drives consumption not the middle class. the middle
> class buys what it needs but the upper class buys what it wants.
> I believe it is something like 50% of consumption. while they have
> taken a hit as well there are a lot of toys/assets to buy now at
> lower prices and if they were smart they'd be buying it all up starting
> now.
Great - then terminate their fat taxpayer funded contracts. They add no value to a US citizens life at all.
Maybe then we will see some outcry about offshoring????
What happened to American bravery?
Buy a gun and defend yourself, American idiocracy. Don't depend on a GOP chickenhawk to do it.
On Oct 17 10:06 PM Kinetics63 wrote:
> Angel Martin,
>
> I want to make one more comment on part of your quote and counter
> it item by item.
>
> Your quote: "This article simply ignores all of the indicators that
> precede EVERY recovery: stock market up, basic materials prices up,
> rising industrial production, falling employment losses, corp profits
> improving, steep yield curve, declining credit spreads, deflation
> stopped."
>
> The stock market is up mainly because a combination of the oversold
> condition brought on by the cascading forced liquidation we seen
> in the Fall of 08, the weak dollar and wishful thinking on the part
> of a lot of Pollyannas.
>
> Basic material prices are up for almost the same reason as the stock
> market, but not quite. Basic materials are being used as a hedge
> against fiat currencies like at no other time in history, China is
> hording commodities while they are cheap and hedge funds are going
> with the momentum. That and not economic growth is what is driving
> up prices.
>
> The Rising Industrial Production is only to restock the barebones
> inventories we have seen over the last few months. Expect to see
> a double dip here soon.
>
> Falling unemployment losses? That's a good one. The unemployment
> figures are very misleading. They don't take into account those who
> have run out of benefits or the underemployed folks who had to take
> a job at half their previous wage. During the last recession there
> were two unemployed for every job opening; now there are six unemployed
> for every job opening. Not a good foundation for a 'V' shaped recovery.
>
>
> Corporate profits have improved but not because of increased top-line
> growth. No, corporate America has been cost cutting to the bone.
> Where are the savings going to come from once all the fat has been
> cut away?
>
> Steep Yield Curve: When the Fed has short term rate down to zero
> it's hard NOT to have a steep yield curve. Why does the Fed have
> it so low? So all our unhealthy banks can make easy money to help
> shore up their reserves. The is one of the reasons there is so much
> support at the long end of the curve. Just wait for the shoe that
> is about to drop in commercial real-estate! We are nowhere close
> in seeing a loosening in consumer credit and small business loans;
> just the fuel that is needed for a healthy recovery.
>
> Declining credit spreads: This one does have some merit but you need
> to realize the extremes they are contracting from. As far as the
> 'Ted Spread' being an indicator of banking health this link can explain
> the 400% premiums being paid rather than the usual 10% better than
> I can: fdralloveragain.blogsp...
>
>
> Deflation stopped? That all depends on what asset class you are talking
> about. We have a long way to go before you can make that kind of
> statement with any certainty.
You know what they say about broken clocks ...
On Oct 18 12:09 AM pigdog67 wrote:
> The analysis given basically follows that of Ravi Bhatra. It is very
> good. It cannot predict when but what. Unfortunately the worst has
> not come yet. No one has taken a hard look at the affect of offshoring.
> 10s of millions of jobs will go overseas in the next few years, to
> India and China. The middle class in the USA is going to experience
> a 50% drop in the standard of living very quickly. This is presaged
> by the 45% drop in housing prices in some locations. Most people
> will struggle to survive, feed themselves, pay there rent, healthcare
> and heat. The rich will start to get hit to as the 'globs' of money
> to be made from 'managing' offshoring will itself move offshore and
> the foreign multinationals will come into existence. Why have Cisco
> when you can have Huawei much cheaper. Why cheaper? Because their
> management gets paid a small fraction of Cisco's management. US multinationals
> will continue to struggle and then die wondering 'Why Me?' as the
> steamroller they started runs them over. Think about it. Many multinationals
> now have 70-85% of their workers overseas. Don't those people have
> the skills to eliminate the multinational and start their own foreign
> based companies. Especially when they see the ludicicrous salaries
> that bloated mostly incompetent US executives get. They will say
> 'I would be happy for one twentieth of that salary and I could do
> a better job'. Hmmm, the light bulb goes on....
> Maybe then we will see some outcry about offshoring????
You think the people in the C-suite are the only ones who are going to take the hit?
On Oct 18 12:07 AM shrike wrote:
> "The real economic disaster will come when Boeing, Lockheed Martin,
> Raytheon, SAIC, Exxon, Chevron, GE and other U.S. conglomerates follow
> in Halliburton's steps and relocate elsewhere. Elsewhere, is offering
> attractive incentives for talented and productive individuals and
> companies, not to mention better living conditions. Who would have
> ever imagined finding better living conditions outside of the U.S.A.?
> "
>
>
> Great - then terminate their fat taxpayer funded contracts. They
> add no value to a US citizens life at all.
My friend, I am a scalper, so it really doesn't matter to me financially who is right; I don't trade my opinion. But for the sake of the average Joe, I hope you are right and I am wrong.
On Oct 18 12:12 AM Angel Martin wrote:
> Kinetic, I stand on my previous post. You can try to explain away
> the individual items I pointed to. But, they are all occurring together,
> just as they occurred together in previous recoveries.
Although debt and Federal Reserve money printing can hold back the tide for the time being (at least another year), these trends if continue will lead to the collapse of our free market system into something much less capitalistic, vibrant, healthy, and free. With it will come, as the author points out, a depression that is much more pernicious than the Great depression because the capitalist system we depend upon will be in ruins.
LOL- he founded himself as a blogger boy?
On Oct 17 02:24 PM Angel Martin wrote:
>
> Appreciate the compliment, but sorry, I live in the wrong country.
>
>
> On Oct 17 11:27 AM Buckoux wrote:
The UK throughout the 20th century faced analogous challenges (and at times faced and met more challenging political and economic predicaments) but came through relatively well; especially from the perspective of its average citizen. No nation can expect to be far and away the undisputed preeminent economic, social and political world power for all time and the US position during the 30 years following WW II was in large part a reflection of the centuries long eclipse of China and India, on the one hand, and the impact of the two World Wars on Europe and Japan, on the other. Like the UK before it, the US will continue to be the first among equals (even though the emphasis in that phrase will be somewhat more on the ‘equals’ part) for the foreseeable future. There is no reason why its citizens should not remain economic, cultural and political leaders; only that others will (as they should in a better world) share these roles to a somewhat greater degree.
On Oct 18 01:12 AM Liz wrote:
> What about the Americans who work for them? The welders, machinists,
> secretaries, etc.
>
> You think the people in the C-suite are the only ones who are going
> to take the hit?
There was not the willingness to look clearly at reality and accept reality when we were blowing one damn bubble after another, for the sake of inflating prices, so that the owners of the world could generate more profits. Why should we expect there to be any clearer an acceptance of so-called reality now? The Fed and the government are NOT accepting reality -- they want more and more punch, they want to party-on.... The reality IS the party is over; it's time to turn out the lights, sober up, pay off our debt, raise interest rates, protect our currency, regenerate our industry and productivity. We are at the end of an age. We need to start over again. We need to 'go down' before we can go up again. The more we resist this REALITY, the harder the fall will be, the greater the depression will be.
We're not sober. That's the hard part of our facing our reality. We're like a drunk who believes that reality is being drunk, not being sober.
0% interest rates are like the liquor store selling everything at half price, buy one get one free. Our leaders are committed to keeping us debt junkies, not matter what the cost.
On Oct 17 07:32 AM LilBob wrote:
> As long as there is a willingness to accept the reality of our situation,
> and to address the underlying root causes of the predicament, then
> any disaster may be averted.
We, Americans, have had so much wealth and so much positive light and so much power (which ALWAYS generates arrogance) we need to suffer a defeat or two and really absorb it so that we can develop our soul the same way we have worked to develop our mind and our body. We need a Night-Cycle. We need more depth. We need to stare into the deep water and reflect on who we are, what we've done, what we want to do. We're very good climbers, Time-carriers. But there's another side of life, the descending the mountain. When you descend the mountain you get to reflect, think, envision, reconsider. Is consuming objects and filling big houses with toys ALL there is to life. Where are our great writers, our great philosophers, our great metaphysicians, our saints....we need to develop that side of our nature also.
During the Day-Cycle the Spirit drives the Body through Life; at Night, the Spirit withdraws into the Soul -- this is the meaning of Noah's Ark. The world is condemned for its sins. The storm comes to punish mortals. Noah (Nuah means 'Spirit' in Chaldean) enters the Ark (the arc, the argha -- remember the Green Jason and the Argonauts; 'argha' in Egyptian designated the crescent Moon, which was considered a cradle) -- in a metaphorical sense, the Spirit climbs back into the womb (the water) and begins gestating, preparatory to its re-birth when the Day is re-born -- and rides out the storm, rides out the rules of the Dark Gods of storm and destruction.
I realize that my reliance on myth and metaphor is, itself, a form of drunkenness. Only myth and metaphor describes the world of Water (Night, Moonlight), in the same way that Causality and mathematics describes the world of Fire (Day, Sunlight).
The storm is coming, if we believe the 'reality' of myth; but, also, the storm will pass, and Daylight will return. Look at history through the lens of myth and you understand why 'apocalypse' is built in to the system: it's for a people to re-discover their god. When death and poverty and hopelessness are near, that's when God is also near.
On Oct 18 03:55 AM bob adamson wrote:
> As a Canadian observer of the US situation I suggest that Mr. Slavo
> and many of those commenting on his article are being far too pessimistic.
> There is no question that the US now finds itself in a difficult
> economic situation and that a fine and sometimes difficult to discern
> line must be followed if significant further damage to both the current
> US economic situation and to the long term prospects for the US are
> to be avoided. That said, however, it is in the interest of all the
> other significant mature and emerging economies that the US succeed
> in addressing its difficulties. No other economy is free of difficult
> economic challenges at present and most appear prepared to work together
> (and see the necessity that the US continue to be a prime player
> in these efforts) at the long and difficult task of economic recovery.
> The US has met significant challenges in the past and its citizens
> shouldn’t assume that they lack the capacity to meet the current
> challenges.
>
> The UK throughout the 20th century faced analogous challenges (and
> at times faced and met more challenging political and economic predicaments)
> but came through relatively well; especially from the perspective
> of its average citizen. No nation can expect to be far and away
> the undisputed preeminent economic, social and political world power
> for all time and the US position during the 30 years following WW
> II was in large part a reflection of the centuries long eclipse of
> China and India, on the one hand, and the impact of the two World
> Wars on Europe and Japan, on the other. Like the UK before it, the
> US will continue to be the first among equals (even though the emphasis
> in that phrase will be somewhat more on the ‘equals’ part) for the
> foreseeable future. There is no reason why its citizens should not
> remain economic, cultural and political leaders; only that others
> will (as they should in a better world) share these roles to a somewhat
> greater degree.
for the man who can build his greatness upon his country’s ruin!” George Washington
On Oct 17 09:39 PM Canuck Economist wrote:
> I am amazed at the BS that gets posted! I cant believe that seekingalpha
> allows this kind of analysis to go on line; and the commentary!
>
>
> As economic analysis this is bad political stink! As political analysis
> it is even worse!
>
> As for the comments, Is this a representative sample of US citizenry?
> Not at all! Americans are thoughtful, kind, educated. Those are
> the Americans that built the great country that you are.
>
> Shame on you! I hope you are not investing this way....you will
> lose your shirts! Again!
If you stand on the capitalist side, it seems the socialists are the problem and the enemy. If you stand on the socialist side, it seems the capitalists are the problem and the enemy. The world turns through the Sun Realm (capitalism) and the Night Realm (socialism) -- and the truth is that capitalism and socialism are both good and bad. Time decides which force is in power. Capitalism ruled from 1983-2001. Socialism will now rule in America (a form of socialism at least) until 2019. Those who think the answer is to go back to 1983 and Reagan's Revolution will have to wait for another decade.
On Oct 17 04:42 PM Spartacuss wrote:
> Of course, and always, socialistic solutions. This kind of denial
> socialist thinking is at the very core of our problems. Affordable
> housing brought this mess about while the social engineers in congress
> were busy giving other peoples money away so that community restoration
> could become the magic elixir for the poor.
>
> Why can't you people ever understand that the poor will always be
> with us for a variety of reasons. Underprivileged...no. Undereducated...no.
> Undermotivated...yes. And the more your give other peoples money
> to the poor, the more poor you are going to have.
>
> However, not matter how desperate and troubled an economy gets, it
> is always the fault of the capitalists. Hell, if weren't for the
> capitalists we would all still be living in caves...uh, perhaps that
> is what you secretly desire.
On Oct 17 10:06 PM Kinetics63 wrote:
> Angel Martin,
>
> I want to make one more comment on part of your quote and counter
> it item by item.
>
> Your quote: "This article simply ignores all of the indicators that
> precede EVERY recovery: stock market up, basic materials prices up,
> rising industrial production, falling employment losses, corp profits
> improving, steep yield curve, declining credit spreads, deflation
> stopped."
>
> The stock market is up mainly because a combination of the oversold
> condition brought on by the cascading forced liquidation we seen
> in the Fall of 08, the weak dollar and wishful thinking on the part
> of a lot of Pollyannas.
>
> Basic material prices are up for almost the same reason as the stock
> market, but not quite. Basic materials are being used as a hedge
> against fiat currencies like at no other time in history, China is
> hording commodities while they are cheap and hedge funds are going
> with the momentum. That and not economic growth is what is driving
> up prices.
>
> The Rising Industrial Production is only to restock the barebones
> inventories we have seen over the last few months. Expect to see
> a double dip here soon.
>
> Falling unemployment losses? That's a good one. The unemployment
> figures are very misleading. They don't take into account those who
> have run out of benefits or the underemployed folks who had to take
> a job at half their previous wage. During the last recession there
> were two unemployed for every job opening; now there are six unemployed
> for every job opening. Not a good foundation for a 'V' shaped recovery.
>
>
> Corporate profits have improved but not because of increased top-line
> growth. No, corporate America has been cost cutting to the bone.
> Where are the savings going to come from once all the fat has been
> cut away?
>
> Steep Yield Curve: When the Fed has short term rate down to zero
> it's hard NOT to have a steep yield curve. Why does the Fed have
> it so low? So all our unhealthy banks can make easy money to help
> shore up their reserves. The is one of the reasons there is so much
> support at the long end of the curve. Just wait for the shoe that
> is about to drop in commercial real-estate! We are nowhere close
> in seeing a loosening in consumer credit and small business loans;
> just the fuel that is needed for a healthy recovery.
>
> Declining credit spreads: This one does have some merit but you need
> to realize the extremes they are contracting from. As far as the
> 'Ted Spread' being an indicator of banking health this link can explain
> the 400% premiums being paid rather than the usual 10% better than
> I can: fdralloveragain.blogsp...
>
>
> Deflation stopped? That all depends on what asset class you are talking
> about. We have a long way to go before you can make that kind of
> statement with any certainty.
Last Night Cycles:
1929-1938: Decline of Capitalist Power (Patriarchy).
1938-1947: Darkest of Dark Age -- World War II + Great Depression of 1946-47
1947-1956: Re-birth of the Light
1956-1965: Golden Age of Capitalism (Triumph of Patriarchy)
1965-1974: Decline of Capitalist Power (Patriarchy).
1974 - 1983: Darkest of Dark Age -- anyone who lived through this period in America remembers how dark it was. I can document this if necessary.
1983 - 1992: Rebirth of the Light
1992-2001: Golden Age of Capitalism (Triumph of Patriarchy)
2001-2010: Decline of Capitalist Power (Patriarchy).
2010-2019: Deepest Night of the Dark Age.
Earth Time Structure
Noon: Apex and descent of Light (no shadow at Noon, but strength of the shadow begins to grow). Analogical historical period: Empire of Reason and Science. Opposition to Relligion. Anti-Heaven, anti-God. Earthy system of beliefs.
Dusk: Light and Darkness are at equal strength, but Darkness is winning (Dusk to Midnight) is deepest part of Dark Age. analogical historical period: Romantic Movements. Romantic Man is rooted in Science and is moving back toward Religion.
Midnight: Apex and descent of Darkness (no light at Midnight, but strength of light begins to grow). Analogical historical period: Birth of Christ and Christianity. Dark Age, triumph of Religion (Gothic mysticism). Opposition to Science (materialism), worldliness. Anti-Earth.
Dawn: Light and Darkness are at equal strength, but Light is winning (Dawn to Noon) is the Golden Age of Light. Analogical historical period: Renaissance Europe. Renaissance Man is man rooted in religion moving toward science.
For those interested I've calculated the 'Time" as being 5:50 PM on the Historical Clock. See the diagram below:
seekingalpha.com/insta...
On Oct 17 02:54 PM E Nuff Sed wrote:
> I just came back from a week in Vegas. The hotels and restaurants
> are full of tourists. Tons of canadian, chinese and south american
> tourists, Gambling halls are packed on the weekends. Obviously
> good deals abound. It's a jolly good "depression".
Someone enlighten me to one time when our economy was in serious trouble and it recovered without the cooperation of the Fed Government, Wall Street and Main street., just one time and then I will have hope that it will also happen this time as well.
But then how can we not lose our houses and cars when we would pay the higher priced items made here. Its a wicked catch 22 here.. The American individuals that are currently and for many years into the future going to pay for this idea of globalization. I am not for keeping wages low here, but I do feel that we have a higher percentage of people that really don't put in their 40 hours they get paid for. Bold statement there for ya? Well I was a Union President for 3 years here in the Midwest. I won a huge percent of my grievances for the people I represented for no pay. The only issue I had, most of these people that I won the grievances for were the lousiest workers in the Union I represented.
When we are willing to admit that we are part of the problem, then we have something to say. But until then, well the money goes into the pockets of the wealthy as they take more and more jobs overseas and we continue to lose job after job.
Now I must state that I am not anti union. In fact I think that the way the wealth have earned the money they have, well its what I call "blood money". While I voiced an opinion on our lack of giving our true 40 hours, I have to also say that the management has been the main reason we don't give them a full 40.
Look at our family members that have broken up bodies from busting their tales only to have their 401k's destroyed from the past deeds of the ones using their money in high risk stock positions. Not only that, but how many of us have parents that are in their 50s, 60s, and older, where they can hardly walk due to all the pain they are in day to day. I am one of them in one manner.
Take my statement on how the USA consumer wants everything that's the cheaper of the items being purchased. Having been a general contractor for 30 years, having a blown back, 6 surgeries and still not fixed, I had the problem that today's Gen Con have. bidding wars. We have competition out there working for pennies, not realizing they are not making much until they have been on their own for several years. In the meantime, we beat the hell out of our bodies, trying to just make a FAIR DOLLAR, only to have customers that want things done for nothing. And we also have the wealthy take advantage of the legal system by screwing over us GC's by patronizing us for a few years, baiting us to think they are honest people. Then we take the hook line and sinker, build a huge addition for the customer, only to get screwed over in the courts when they had connections.
My point is us at the bottom are going to pay the price for the things I listed above and more over the next 20 or 30 years. Since we were deceived in taking this country "global", we will not see things balance out until our middle and lower class people are making the same as those in the overseas factories
Its a sad thing to hear these thoughts and opinions, but I believe there is a lot of truth being told in this reply. Isn't it great to be an American citizen, working to make the upper class more upper and the middle and lower class's back to the days of peasants,..
IMO we are well on our way.
Good Luck and God Bless,
On Oct 17 07:32 AM LilBob wrote:
> To me this is fear mongering, brought on by a lack of willingness
> to understand what's really going on in the economy. During the
> Bush administration we had an increase in the concentration of capital
> in the hands of the wealthiest Americans, just like we saw in this
> country during the "Robber Baron" age from roughly 1895 to the early
> 1930s. In a capitalist economy, there are two kinds of capital:
> investor capital and consumer capital-we can also refer to these
> two types of capital as supply capital and demand capital. When
> capital becomes too highly concentrated in the hands of investors
> while working class wages stagnate, we end up with a situation where
> sales decline generally while new more aggressive investment schemes
> are fabricated to create the illusion of increasing wealth for the
> investment class. The only solution to this problem is for social
> phenomenon that increase consumer capital-restore the consumer base-thereby
> making it possible for businesses to keep their doors open. The
> reason we are in a recession is because of several years of misperception
> on the part of the American public-people believed that their wealth
> was increasing and loaded up on debt when their actual wealth-as
> measured in wages and ability (from say, job benefits) to access
> critical services (such as health care) was in steep decline. <br/>
>
> As long as there is a willingness to accept the reality of our situation,
> and to address the underlying root causes of the predicament, then
> any disaster may be averted.
On Oct 17 12:06 PM Alphameister wrote:
> Indeed, I'm beginning to wonder about the possibility of a massive
> revolt by middle America triggered by this thought process: "I'm
> not going to be able to obtain additional credit or preserve a good
> credit score anyway, so why not follow the advice of a rapidly expanding
> field of debt consultants urging people to walk away from their debts
> or to settle such debts for twenty cents or less on the dollar?"
> On a news broadcast this week, there was an item about a person who
> had stopped paying on her mortgage early this year and still has
> not received a foreclosure notice. She's been living rent-free and
> presumably doing her part to support surprisingly strong retail sales
> through the additioinal buying power her debt-avoidance has made
> possible. How long before such anecdotal evidence becomes an accepted
> tactic for economic survival?
arabianmoney.net/2009/.../
What started as an accident (non-payers were surprised to go months without any notices) is now a symbiotic fact of foreclosure life.
On Oct 18 01:10 AM Liz wrote:
> Isn't this the same guy who predicted The Great Depression of 1990?
>
>
> You know what they say about broken clocks ...
Some views :
1) There is a universal Law which has always worked for individuals, families, countries and the whole world.No one is exempt.The Law is:
All excesses will be punished.
This is not any religious stuff but plain common sense.
The corollaries
- more the punishment is delayed more severe will be the punishment.
- any effort to prevent the Law from working leads to more disastrous consequences
- even conservative guys inside a system committing such excesses will be punished, they cannot ask whey are being unfairly punished
- If you do not commit excesses in 99 activities but commit excess in only one activty , you will be neverthless punished even for that one excess.
- so the smartest thing is not to commit any excesses and if necessary take the punishement as early as possible.
2) No one seems to undersand the real problems facing USA today
The major problems are as follows
- excessive leverage and debt accumulation over the last twenty years by both institutions and individuals
- pulling of demand from future to present being done for many years indiscriminately
- corruption and systematic destruction of major institutions and systems by powerful vested interests
- loss of manufacturing competitiveness in many sectors over the last two decades
- general tendency of all educated people to always look for an easy way to make big time money in the shortest possible time with the result the total social culture has been vitiated totally.
- So the excesses have been done on many fronts and for many years by both institutions and individuals
So another Great Depression is a good possibility.
If you guys are interested , can suggest remedial measures
Gavin G
On Oct 17 07:32 AM LilBob wrote:
> To me this is fear mongering, brought on by a lack of willingness
> to understand what's really going on in the economy. During the Bush
> administration we had an increase in the concentration of capital
> in the hands of the wealthiest Americans, just like we saw in this
> country during the "Robber Baron" age from roughly 1895 to the early
> 1930s. In a capitalist economy, there are two kinds of capital: investor
> capital and consumer capital-we can also refer to these two types
> of capital as supply capital and demand capital. When capital becomes
> too highly concentrated in the hands of investors while working class
> wages stagnate, we end up with a situation where sales decline generally
> while new more aggressive investment schemes are fabricated to create
> the illusion of increasing wealth for the investment class. The only
> solution to this problem is for social phenomenon that increase consumer
> capital-restore the consumer base-thereby making it possible for
> businesses to keep their doors open. The reason we are in a recession
> is because of several years of misperception on the part of the American
> public-people believed that their wealth was increasing and loaded
> up on debt when their actual wealth-as measured in wages and ability
> (from say, job benefits) to access critical services (such as health
> care) was in steep decline.
>
> As long as there is a willingness to accept the reality of our situation,
> and to address the underlying root causes of the predicament, then
> any disaster may be averted.
Some views :
1) There is a universal Law which has always worked for individuals, families, countries and the whole world.No one is exempt.The Law is:
All excesses will be punished.
This is not any religious stuff but plain common sense.
The corollaries
- more the punishment is delayed more severe will be the punishment.
- any effort to prevent the Law from working leads to more disastrous consequences
- even conservative guys inside a system committing such excesses will be punished, they cannot ask whey are being unfairly punished
- If you do not commit excesses in 99 activities but commit excess in only one activty , you will be neverthless punished even for that one excess.
- so the smartest thing is not to commit any excesses and if necessary take the punishement as early as possible.
2) No one seems to undersand the real problems facing USA today
The major problems are as follows
- excessive leverage and debt accumulation over the last twenty years by both institutions and individuals
- pulling of demand from future to present being done for many years indiscriminately
- corruption and systematic destruction of major institutions and systems by powerful vested interests
- loss of manufacturing competitiveness in many sectors over the last two decades
- general tendency of all educated people to always look for an easy way to make big time money in the shortest possible time with the result the total social culture has been vitiated totally.
- So the excesses have been done on many fronts and for many years by both institutions and individuals
So another Great Depression is a good possibility.
If you guys are interested , can suggest remedial measures
Gavin G
On Oct 17 07:18 AM Philly Jim wrote:
> The real economic disaster will come when Boeing, Lockheed Martin,
> Raytheon, SAIC, Exxon, Chevron, GE and other U.S. conglomerates follow
> in Halliburton's steps and relocate elsewhere. Elsewhere, is offering
> attractive incentives for talented and productive individuals and
> companies, not to mention better living conditions. Who would have
> ever imagined finding better living conditions outside of the U.S.A.?
Some person will scrounge whatever they can together and start a business on a shoestring. It will grow despite the capital constraints you name. This will happen many times over. Ultimately, the banks lend again when their balance sheet repairs and they see the recovery gather steam. Has happened time and again.
On Oct 18 08:27 AM lower98th wrote:
> PS. There are many owners - and tenants - who are staying in pending
> foreclosures payment-free. Having the property occupied, banks have
> discovered, is in their best interest too. The utilities are paid,
> the grass is mowed, the property is secure from vandals, etc. An
> amicable eviction (with "incentive to relocate" cash for keys) happens
> only when the bank's balance sheet is ready to take the loss.
>
> What started as an accident (non-payers were surprised to go months
> without any notices) is now a symbiotic fact of foreclosure life.
Gavin G
Excellent observations, Gavin. I suspect many of us can suggest remedies to ameliorate the problems, but none of mine are feasible within the current political realities. I do believe that a growing trend of debt repudiation by middle America, whatever the ethics, is a start toward resolving the daunting long-term issues even though such actions pose great short-term risks to banks (that have been kept alive on the backs of those same consumers/taxpayers).
When (almost) nobody has a good credit score, either the definition of a good credit score drifts lower or the country returns to buying things the way our grandparents did.
And when Geithner says we have a policy of a strong dollar then it's assured that we will all be using dollar bills for toilet paper soon enough. His track record for improving matters ranks with Ben.
For the most part this is all accurate information in the article. The problem is that there is not much new here and yet, despite the consistency and volume of such articles there is nothing to be heard like this in mainstream media. Which begs the question: are we all insanely wrong or is the media pushing as hard as it can against some unseen force with it's consistent message of misinformation?
I'm inclined to be VERY skeptical of anyone who changes the term inflation to reflation or anything else than what it is. Today sure feels like a Depression but my grocery bills sure look like Inflation.
Personally, I'm betting that the mainstream media has got it all wrong as they are still following the Keynesians and are rejoicing that the stock market is up-up-up. Never mind USDX or spot Gold prices.
Every fiat currency is sinking, some faster than others. Put your money in the most buoyant item you can find for the long run.
On Oct 17 09:05 AM TripleG wrote:
> Real Estate foreclosures will continue
> despite the announcement of 'the recession is over' by Bernanke,
> Obama and Co., and others.
Yes, Obama was a mistake and the country has gone too far to the left.
At the next election, the pendulum will, once again swing in the other direction.
What they don't understand is that, although the pendulum swings back and forth from Republican to Democrat, the pendulum itself is being carried by powers outside of our control.
The wealthiest people in the world, whose families have owned the central banking system for 500 years, hold the pendulum and have been walking the US and the rest of the world to a totalitarian state for longer than any of us have been alive.
To bicker back and forth as Republicans and Democrats is to fall into their trap. We need to stand together as Americans before it's too late.
Obama is not a mistake.
He is only the last straw on the camels back known as USA economy.
Few Americans realise any President seldom acts to his true beliefs. He has to just play the role required of him during his tenure.
When every Tom, Dick and Harry is aware of Wall St practices, do we mean to say Obama is not aware ? He is simply powerless . Thats all.
Unfortunately the political and economic leadership has been greatly lacking since the crisis broke out in 2007 under both Bush and Obama.
The bottomline is long term problems cannot be solved by short term quick fixes. This approach only aggravates the long term problems. This is the first step Washington has to realise.
On Oct 18 10:31 AM yellowhoard wrote:
> Everyone I talk to repeats the same phrase.
>
> Yes, Obama was a mistake and the country has gone too far to the
> left.
>
> At the next election, the pendulum will, once again swing in the
> other direction.
>
> What they don't understand is that, although the pendulum swings
> back and forth from Republican to Democrat, the pendulum itself is
> being carried by powers outside of our control.
>
> The wealthiest people in the world, whose families have owned the
> central banking system for 500 years, hold the pendulum and have
> been walking the US and the rest of the world to a totalitarian state
> for longer than any of us have been alive.
>
> To bicker back and forth as Republicans and Democrats is to fall
> into their trap. We need to stand together as Americans before it's
> too late.
Which means over the next several years, many ciities will shrink about 40 % to 50 % from present sizes , as people stay more nearer to the places of work & also more together and cut costs.
This is going to be disastrous for all industries right from auto mfrs, to housing to super markets. No sector will be spared as all the flab needs to be shed mercilessly.
On Oct 18 10:09 AM noob wrote:
> It's helpful to recognize that Ben's track record is 0.00% accurate.
> So when he says the Recession is over you can bet your life savings
> that it is most decidedly not over, not likely to be over soon, and
> only the Keynesians will buy into that tripe.
>
> And when Geithner says we have a policy of a strong dollar then it's
> assured that we will all be using dollar bills for toilet paper soon
> enough. His track record for improving matters ranks with Ben.<br/>
>
> For the most part this is all accurate information in the article.
> The problem is that there is not much new here and yet, despite the
> consistency and volume of such articles there is nothing to be heard
> like this in mainstream media. Which begs the question: are we all
> insanely wrong or is the media pushing as hard as it can against
> some unseen force with it's consistent message of misinformation?
>
>
> I'm inclined to be VERY skeptical of anyone who changes the term
> inflation to reflation or anything else than what it is. Today sure
> feels like a Depression but my grocery bills sure look like Inflation.
>
>
> Personally, I'm betting that the mainstream media has got it all
> wrong as they are still following the Keynesians and are rejoicing
> that the stock market is up-up-up. Never mind USDX or spot Gold prices.
>
>
> Every fiat currency is sinking, some faster than others. Put your
> money in the most buoyant item you can find for the long run. <br/>
>
> On Oct 17 09:05 AM TripleG wrote:
What businesses, small mom and pop ones need now as much as customers is access to capital. Their lines of credit and sources of funding have been eviscerated.
Fear mongering. No, not really. Americans are not educated in areas that are productive to Society as a whole. Values are nowhere to be found. It is all about me generation. Whatever happened to that Great Conservative JFK, Ask Not What Your Country Can Do For You, Ask What You Can Do For Your Country.
If Bush is guilty of anything other then destroying the Conservative wing of the Republican Party, Starting a war to benefit the Military Industrial Complex and allowing Greenspan to drop rates to unrealistic levels, he is guilty of being a tool of the World Moneyed Interests. Oh and being instrumental in having Michael "Savage" Wiener banned from Great Britain.
What we need to fix this, this being America in general, is common sense in the Courts and Politicians that will cut spending. 40+ years of The Great Society has put more families on their Democratic Masters Plantations, per capita then when their fellow South Africans sold their ancestors into slavery. Capitalism, however it is defined needs productive members of Society, not slaves, beholden to their masters for the shelter, food and health care needs. Education and inspiration is the key to a healthy Country.
What's next for America? Politicians hiring thugs to inspect your garbage, as in the U.K. while the "yobs" run amok?
The problems are complex, because of the years of festering to get it to this point. America needs to "reboot", with common sense and educated populous. China puts out more engineering graduates them we graduate in total. However, we have more rap singers, denigrating African Americans with their use of the "n" word. Why is this glorified and successful business folks demonized? I never received a paycheck from a poor person, nor did they pay me a consulting fee.
The point is why are we focusing on "Bush" rather then on Society. There are good and bad in all people, races, ethnicity, etc. We need to develop the good in all. Educate all and get them off their Masters’ plantation. Let's stop the politics of personal destruction and work toward a solution.
Finally, will the last one to leave Detroit turn off the lights.
to wit, my grandfather walked out of Russia to escape the Czars, now we them here in the US Government, unaccountable to anyone, not even Congress and they glorify Mao?
Uggghhhhhhhhh!
On Oct 17 07:32 AM LilBob wrote:
> To me this is fear mongering, brought on by a lack of willingness
> to understand what's really going on in the economy. During the Bush
> administration we had an increase in the concentration of capital
> in the hands of the wealthiest Americans, just like we saw in this
> country during the "Robber Baron" age from roughly 1895 to the early
> 1930s. In a capitalist economy, there are two kinds of capital: investor
> capital and consumer capital-we can also refer to these two types
> of capital as supply capital and demand capital. When capital becomes
> too highly concentrated in the hands of investors while working class
> wages stagnate, we end up with a situation where sales decline generally
> while new more aggressive investment schemes are fabricated to create
> the illusion of increasing wealth for the investment class. The only
> solution to this problem is for social phenomenon that increase consumer
> capital-restore the consumer base-thereby making it possible for
> businesses to keep their doors open. The reason we are in a recession
> is because of several years of misperception on the part of the American
> public-people believed that their wealth was increasing and loaded
> up on debt when their actual wealth-as measured in wages and ability
> (from say, job benefits) to access critical services (such as health
> care) was in steep decline.
>
> As long as there is a willingness to accept the reality of our situation,
> and to address the underlying root causes of the predicament, then
> any disaster may be averted.
If or when the consumer truly starts to feel pinched, they will cut back dramatically on these non-essential costs and luxuries to divert the money to rent, energy, food and medicine, the essentials of life.
So far there has been only relatively small reductions being reported by these companies, the cruise ships are still departing daily, airports are choked with tourists and Disney World still has big lines inside the park. There has not been anything like the 50% or more reductions in entertainment one would expect to see if consumers are really being forced to cut back.
Right now this discretionary consumption is being fueled by unprecedented borrowing and printing of money by governments. But keep watching, the tab eventually must be paid.
Those are the growing class of people who brought about Mr. Obama's prominence but he has failed them. They are fed-up with the two main parties who continually find themselves mired in controversy and behavior unbecoming of a representative of the people. Change now, it would seem, must come at great expense to those who least expect it. LOL Looking after your money.
The author has made the case that "a great depression" is inevitable. And many respondents seemingly wholeheartedly agree. Now what? What seems to be missing -- should this scenario truly play-out -- are any investment strategies that purport to deal with it (the other half of the equation).
My questions are, "For those who 'sincerely believe' that this scenario is unfolding, how are you strategically positioning your portfolios to prepare for and weather such a cataclysmic economic environment? Are you entirely in gold? Cash? International investments? Or are you currently preparing by embracing completely different strategies?"
Would the author agree to comment regarding what steps he would recommend taking?
On Oct 17 09:32 AM Pauly B wrote:
> You have done a great job laying out your case and not that I dont
> disagree on many points.
>
> Now what is your solution to this mess? Please tell!
>
> Do I start buying up survival food and run to the mountains to live?
As the author says, we can't maintain a vibrant economy without a healthy middle class. But what are we doing to the middle class? Obama has declared war on the middle class, with the plan being to tax it into oblivian. Cap-and-Trade, health care "reform," and massive gifts in the form of interest rate subsidies to Wall Street, and other deficit-spending initiatives all do exactly the opposite of what we should be doing for the middle class. We are in very bad shape, and need to remember this when the next elections roll around.
There are so many brilliant people at opposite sides of the fence on this issue, that I don’t know how any average investor could feel secure in betting his/her whole wad on any one side. That is why I only scalp.
I would suggest that the average investor learn to be more of a trader in this market environment and that they trade futures because they can buy short term T-Bills to use as margin and at least earn a little interest. I also suggest that they only scalp the markets; betting on the support and resistant levels and getting in and out as quickly as possible. Finally, don’t ever trade your opinion! You are just asking for trouble when you do. One needs to be just as comfortable going short as he/she is going long in any particular market.
Get rid of your ego and let the markets tip their hand before you put on any trade. I’ll bet many of you have been right on the market direction and yet lost money because you got stopped out on a small move against you. Do the opposite! Stop yourself out on all small profits the second you feel the momentum slowing or you get a quick spurt of price movement in your direction. Don’t go for the fences! They may feel great for the ego when you make them, but they are few and far between and only set you up emotionally for financial ruin in the future.
On Oct 18 01:17 PM mws wrote:
> I agree with Pauly B.
>
> The author has made the case that "a great depression" is inevitable.
> And many respondents seemingly wholeheartedly agree. Now what? What
> seems to be missing -- should this scenario truly play-out -- are
> any investment strategies that purport to deal with it (the other
> half of the equation).
>
> My questions are, "For those who 'sincerely believe' that this scenario
> is unfolding, how are you strategically positioning your portfolios
> to prepare for and weather such a cataclysmic economic environment?
> Are you entirely in gold? Cash? International investments? Or are
> you currently preparing by embracing completely different strategies?"
>
>
> Would the author agree to comment regarding what steps he would recommend
> taking?
Give me a break
On Oct 18 05:36 AM Michael Clark wrote:
> 1974 - 1983: Darkest of Dark Age -- anyone who lived through this
> period in America remembers how dark it was. I can document this
> if necessary.
On Oct 18 04:49 PM Dean M wrote:
>
> Give me a break
>
> On Oct 18 05:36 AM Michael Clark wrote:
It's just a matter of time before the "host" rolls on us...
But still, there's money to be made through smart investing (i.e., figuring out what the U.S. Government will do next).
On Oct 17 09:39 AM jay brebner wrote:
> the richest 10% drives consumption not the middle class. the middle
> class buys what it needs but the upper class buys what it wants.
> I believe it is something like 50% of consumption. while they have
> taken a hit as well there are a lot of toys/assets to buy now at
> lower prices and if they were smart they'd be buying it all up starting
> now.
Selling goods and services in the US is not a "god given right" to the multi-national corporations, rather it is a priviledge. There is an implied contract between business and US consumers/citizens which is namely that both parties should benefit from the exchange. At that point where the benefits substantially accrue to the multi-national corporation, then US society has no obligation to bestoe the privilidge of selling in the US market, using US captial markets, or any other access to US society.
Or any other range of alternatives could also be employed such as raising tarrifs to levels sufficient to compensate new industries starting up to replace the exiting multi-nationals.
Extreme outcomes can also result in extreme countermeasures as well. Don't discount the possibility of a fight to the death for survival by any country adversely affected by lengthy and ongoing severe economic duress.
On Oct 18 12:07 AM shrike wrote:
> "The real economic disaster will come when Boeing, Lockheed Martin,
> Raytheon, SAIC, Exxon, Chevron, GE and other U.S. conglomerates follow
> in Halliburton's steps and relocate elsewhere. Elsewhere, is offering
> attractive incentives for talented and productive individuals and
> companies, not to mention better living conditions. Who would have
> ever imagined finding better living conditions outside of the U.S.A.?
> "
>
>
> Great - then terminate their fat taxpayer funded contracts. They
> add no value to a US citizens life at all.
I have been reading the comments to this article and find many people doubt the article's assertions for a variety of reasons. Of course, one of the reasons is the rising stock market.
I recently wrote a blog series that addresses various signs of potential problems in the stock and financial markets. For those interested, it is the "Peril in the Markets?" link that can be found here:
www.economicgreenfield.../
> someone please show when America moved forward without their being synergy between all three.
> Ive asked this before but have never received one response.
>
> Someone enlighten me to one time when our economy was in
> serious trouble and it recovered without the cooperation of the
> Fed Government, Wall Street and Main street., just one time and > then I will have hope that it will also happen this time as well.
Okay, since you asked: Panic of 1920. Credit squeeze, stocks crashed. Government did Nothing. Main Street just took it (and Hard!). One bad year, then recovery, as prices eventually declined to match wages.
(This was actually a fairly typical model for pre-'29 panics - there are several example, this is just the one that comes to me first)
Now, put this in contrast to 1929, when the "Fed government" (both parties, sequentially) did Everything, dragged the whole thing out for a decade, and left the world so mean as to be spoiling for another World War.
I am genuinely sorry if this contravenes any notions precious to your world view, but the fact is, IF you get coercive power out of the mix, these things can fix themselves Promptly. Insolvent debtors go under, their assets are liquidated at a discount, healthy businesses pick them up, and benefit thereby, and become better able to hire. The is virtually Nothing the federal government can do (once it the problems have started - and they don't have a good track record for proactive solutions, either) to improve things.
And the notion that Main Street should have something to do in all this is a recent notion, born of the 'retailization' of finance. There was a time when the common man did not have any assets, just the mortgage on his house, and that was between him and his (local) bank. I believe it is pointless to ask "Main Street" to sacrifice for the excesses of Wall Street, just as it is to expect the Feds to clean up the mess. Neither has the tools. Just let the bankruptcy courts do the Freakin' JOB, and brace for a baad year. Or try to order back the tide, and brace for a depression.
What is happening is basically capitalism in action and though the short term will not be easy the future looks bright because all the participants (except the Federal government) are getting their finances in order. Even states are doing what they have to do to survive.
The years of excessive borrowing are gone and everyone will need to come down to the level where you buy what you can afford and you live within your means. What an original concept!
I am happy that banks are requiring 20% down for a loan as that is how it should be. There is no free lunch in life and people need to understand that if you want to prosper in this life you need to work hard, save your money and invest wisely. We are not going to have a depression anytime soon because the bubble already burst. I am finding many stocks to buy, that I have been waiting for years to come down to levels that I can afford.
Life is not easy and its good that the baby boomers are going through this so they will see that there are good times and bad times in your life and that one should not get overexcited in the good times and always be prepared for the bad ones.
Capitalism is based on the Laws of nature. It is fall now and the animal kingdom is preparing themselves for winter. Humans have had it too easy over the last decade and they forgot how to save. This hard recession we just went through woke a lot of people up and hopefully they will learn a life long lesson. The important things in life are health, family and happiness. Once you have those three the rest is achievable by putting your nose to the grindstone and working hard.
Obama won't 'fix' everything. Everything is not fixable. We need to degrenerate before we can re-generate. We need to wind down. The socialists (so-called), liberals -- those concerned with the 'social good' more than the 'individual good' -- govern during the Night-Cycle. We've just begun the Night-Cycle. The Republicans are gone for another decade at least.
We can't have another Reagan until everything gets broken down again. And then we'll have to decide if we want another Reagan, which has another implicit 'fall' written in to it.
The Day-Cycle separates the classes by money; the Night-Cycles brings the classes back together into a chaotic melting pot. Which is where the alchemy of re-creation occurs.
On Oct 18 10:43 AM Gavin G wrote:
> Yellowhoard
>
> Obama is not a mistake.
> He is only the last straw on the camels back known as USA economy.
>
>
> Few Americans realise any President seldom acts to his true beliefs.
> He has to just play the role required of him during his tenure.<br/>
>
> When every Tom, Dick and Harry is aware of Wall St practices, do
> we mean to say Obama is not aware ? He is simply powerless . Thats
> all.
>
> Unfortunately the political and economic leadership has been greatly
> lacking since the crisis broke out in 2007 under both Bush and Obama.
>
>
> The bottomline is long term problems cannot be solved by short term
> quick fixes. This approach only aggravates the long term problems.
> This is the first step Washington has to realise.
America was forced to leave Vietnam in disgrace, defeated politically, morally, and militarily. President Carter was in power and was telling us that the American Empire was over and we had to learn to live with less, permanently. The American economy was in the shambles, 15% unemployment for all those wanting to work. Inflation was climbing.
The American political scene has rarely been so polarized. Not since the American Civil War 100 years earlier had American society been so polarized.
Racial warfare was the common theme in America: white America was racist and black America was fighting a holy war against her oppressors. Cities had burned in the 60's -- in the 70's the wound was still festering.
American youth was knee-deep in the drug and sex culture that rejected everything Western (and American). America and Europe (the whole world, in fact) was in open revolt against materialism, Christianity, and empire. Black was beautiful; white was criminal.
Communism was winning everywhere, on the battlefield, and also politically. All of Asia seemed ready to embrace Marxist governments, as well as Central and South America. The Youth Movement in America and Europe considered America the enemy of justice in the world, and capitalism the force of fascism. Communist gains in Nicaragua and Guatemala, supported by Cuba, made many Americans feel as though they were being surrounded by armed barbarians.
The Black Panthers created an armed army of resistance in American cities in neighborhoods where police would not go.
President Nixon had been forced out of office in an impeachment scandal that had left American politics reeling. Nixon's vice president had been indicted for influence-peddling and had been forced out several years earlier.
Jonestown Massacre - 1978. Nearly 1,000 people poisoned together in a religious sects rebellion against modernity.
Rajneeshpuram - 1980. Indian guru takes over Oregon town with thousands of disciples from Europe, America, Japan. Rajneesh-owned hotel in Portland bombed by angry Oregon citizen. Armed Oregon citizens patrolled border of commune. Attempt by commune leaders to take over Antelope, Oregon through elections led to intentional food-poisoning of Antelope restaurant with nearly 1000 sickened. Rajneesh eventually deported; other leaders arrested. The subsequent criminal investigation, the largest in Oregon history, confirmed that a secretive group had, unbeknownst to both government officials and nearly all Rajneeshpuram residents, engaged in a variety of criminal activities, including the attempted murder of Rajneesh's physician, wiretapping and bugging within the commune and within Rajneesh's home, poisonings of two public officials, and arson. The 1984 Rajneeshee bioterror attack, the incident is regarded as the largest germ warfare attack in the history of the United States.
Religious cults were the order of the day, as Christianity was abandoned by Western youth.
Iran would soon take American embassy workers hostage. The news media enumerated each day the hostages were held...and this count ran into almost two years. Never was American influence in the world so low. It was even worse than today, in a political sense. The episode reached a climax when, after failed attempts to negotiate a release, the United States military attempted a rescue operation, Operation Eagle Claw, on April 24, 1980, which resulted in a failed mission, the crash of two aircraft and the deaths of eight American servicemen and one Iranian civilian. A duststorm blew the attack team off course and they crashed in the desert, far from the target.
Nothing America did between 1974-1983 was successful. America was the picture of discord, chaos, disintegration. (Disco was a kind of shallow picture of the social order in a state of mindless disco-nnect.)
Then the Arab-generated Oil Embargo sent oil prices from $10/barrel to $75/barrel. Americans waited in line for hours to fill up their cars. Inflation shot up. The price of gold went over $1000/ounce.
It seemed like the end of the world. It was in fact. It was also the beginning of the world. Suddenly the light was born again in the West. Expansion slowly began again (over which Reagan watched, not needing to do much really: expansion has its own order and logic. Expansion fixes everything by itself; and also creates its own doom, and its next descent into the Chaos.)
Descents into Chaos in American history:
1857-1875
1893-1911
1929-1947
1965-1983
2001-2019
On Oct 18 04:49 PM Dean M wrote:
>
> Give me a break
>
> On Oct 18 05:36 AM Michael Clark wrote:
The Night-Cycle is very deep dark water, in which monsters live.
"Even more if Repubs don't stop fighting it".
What the hell are you talking about? The Repubs are trying to stop us from sliding into socialism. If you think that is a "bad thing" I suggest you consider moving to Canada or Europe. If a Great Depression is coming I can't think of a more inexperienced, unqualified, naive narcisist to run this country into the ground than Obama. You idiots were the ones who voted for "change". That's exactly what you got morons.
Yank
On Oct 17 08:55 AM jerrydd wrote:
>
> Good article.
>
> Venndata, U6 is already at 17+% unemployment and many places like
> Fla are about 20% U-6, the old way of measuring it.
>
> Many in Washington, wall street just don't know or want to know how
> bad main street has become. Another number that gov has badly made
> is inflation. For most people from 2000 to 2008 real inflation, what
> we actually paid for things has went up 100% which means our wealth
> has dropped 50%.
>
> Now add our wages have barely increased and many have had a 40% pay
> cut in buying power. So those who think people spending is going
> to bring us out are fooling themselves. This is the same inflation,
> loss of real wealth that happened under Regean/Bush41.
>
> The whole US is going to be completely changed by this debt, mismanagement
> and it's going to take a decade to recover from. Even more if repubs
> don't stop fighting it.
On Oct 17 09:05 AM TripleG wrote:
> I hate to admit that this article is right (my opinion). We (the
> congressmen anyway) have run up such an insurmountable debt that
> we have no way out of this mess other than a long hard slug of business
> stagnation and personal failures. Real Estate foreclosures will continue
> despite the announcement of 'the recession is over' by Bernanke,
> Obama and Co., and others.
Date:_________________...
I, ________________________, do solemnly swear to uphold the principles of a socialism-free society and heretofore pledge my word that I shall strictly adhere to the following:
I pledge to eliminate all government intervention in my life. I will abstain from the use of and participation in any socialist goods and services including but not limited to the following:
* Social Security
* Medicare/Medicaid
* State Children’s Health Insurance Programs (SCHIP)
* Police, Fire, and Emergency Services
* US Postal Service
* Roads and Highways
* Air Travel (regulated by the FAA)
* The US Railway System
* Public Subways and Metro Systems
* Public Bus and Light Rail Systems
* Rest Areas on Highways & Sidewalks
* All Government-Funded Local/State Projects (e.g., see Senator Grassley's Iowa 2009 -- grassley.senate.gov/is... federal appropriations of taxpayer money)
* Public Water and Sewer Services (including but not limited to public toilets, showers, dishwashers, kitchen sinks, and outdoor hoses)
* Public and State Universities and Colleges
* Public Primary and Secondary Schools & Sesame Street
* Publicly Funded Anti-Drug Use Education for Children
* Public Libraries & Museums
* Public Parks and Beaches
* State and National Parks
* Public Zoos
* Unemployment Insurance
* Municipal Garbage and Recycling Services
* Treatment at Any Hospital or Clinic Has Received Funding from Local, State or Federal Government
* Medical Services and Medications That Were Created or Derived from Any Government Grant or Research Funding
* Byproducts of Government Investment Such as Velcro (NASA)
* Use of the Internet, email, and networked computers, as the DOD's ARPANET was the basis for computer networking
* Foodstuffs, Meats, Produce and Crops That Were Grown with, Fed with, Raised with or Contain Crops Grown with Government Farm Subsidies
* Clothing Made from Crops (e.g. cotton) That Were Grown with or Contain Inputs from Government Subsidies
If a veteran of the government-run US military, I will forego my VA benefits and insist on paying for my own medical care.
I will not tour socialist government buildings like the Capitol in Washington, D.C.
I pledge never to take myself, my family, or my children on a tour of the following types of socialist locations, including but not limited to:
* Smithsonian Museums such as the Air and Space Museum or Museum of American History
* The Washington, Lincoln, and Jefferson Monuments
* The government-operated Statue of Liberty
* The Grand Canyon
* The World War II and Vietnam Veterans Memorials
* The government-run Arlington National Cemetery
* All other public-funded socialist sites, whether it be in my state or in Washington, DC
I will urge my Member of Congress and Senators to forego their government salary and government-provided healthcare.
I will oppose and condemn the government-funded military of the United States of America.
I will boycott the products of socialist defense contractors such as GE, Lockheed-Martin, Boeing, Northrop Grumman, General Dynamics, Raytheon, Humana, FedEx, General Motors, Honeywell, and hundreds of others that are paid by our socialist government to produce goods for our socialist army.
I will protest socialist national security departments such as the Pentagon, FBI, CIA, Department of Homeland Security, TSA, Department of Justice and their socialist employees.
Upon reaching eligible retirement age, I will tear up my socialist Social Security checks.
Upon reaching age 65, I will forego Medicare and pay for my own private health insurance until I die.
SWORN AND SIGNED THIS DAY OF ________ IN THE YEAR _____.
_______________________ _______________________ _____________________
Signed Printed Name Town and State
On Oct 19 09:15 AM yank wrote:
> Jerry:
> "Even more if Repubs don't stop fighting it".
> What the hell are you talking about? The Repubs are trying to stop
> us from sliding into socialism. If you think that is a "bad thing"
> I suggest you consider moving to Canada or Europe. If a Great Depression
> is coming I can't think of a more inexperienced, unqualified, naive
> narcisist to run this country into the ground than Obama. You idiots
> were the ones who voted for "change". That's exactly what you got
> morons.
>
> Yank
It's the same thing now. Cut out the crying. The people who ruined things - ran the country into the ground, in one sense or another - were Bill Clinton and George W. It's time for a fresh approach, and Obama is the right man. Of course, if he can't provide it, then he can join Bill and George W. in a luxury suite at the losers club.
First with author saying a depression is coming and then you saying that Bill and George ran the country into the ground.
The last 30 years in this country have been very good to those who took the time and effort to graduate college. Yea, income growth wasn't great in the last decade, but so what, inflation was low, and it didn't grow off a high base that it hit the late 90s. Yea, there's some debt, but not all of it has to be paid back right now.
If you are uneducated, the next 20 years will not be a good time for you. The reality is that you not only will have to compete with robots and machines, but a huge supply of people competing for the same job.
On Oct 19 10:40 AM Ferdinand E. Banks wrote:
> The problem with the American voters is simple. They want solutions
> and they want them NOW. They wanted them NOW during WW2, but it took
> longer, a few years, and when those solutions arrived - made possible
> by the best military and best industry the world had ever seen -
> those people on the other side were finished, amazed, baffled. Everybody
> I talked to in Germany and Japan thought that they had that business
> won..
>
> It's the same thing now. Cut out the crying. The people who ruined
> things - ran the country into the ground, in one sense or another
> - were Bill Clinton and George W. It's time for a fresh approach,
> and Obama is the right man. Of course, if he can't provide it, then
> he can join Bill and George W. in a luxury suite at the losers club.
diogeron, a good list and I commend you for your efforts, but like the list I earlier stated, I suspect that it was greatly abbreviated for the sake of the many busy reader's time, patience, and eye strain, for example,
There is some effort (but seldom enough) for the government to :
Prevent too much rat manure in our peanut butter along with Salmonella and E Coli in it and our other foodstuffs.
Help us deal with Pandemic diseases.
Provide some measure of vehicle and product safety that would otherwise claim the lives and health of our children and ourselves.
Again, I have tried to be brief relative to a vast and important subject.
On Oct 17 02:54 PM E Nuff Sed wrote:
> I just came back from a week in Vegas. The hotels and restaurants
> are full of tourists. Tons of canadian, chinese and south american
> tourists, Gambling halls are packed on the weekends. Obviously
> good deals abound. It's a jolly good "depression".
A marvelous Summary of select past events salted with hugely colorful and penetrating remarks. You must be British, or possibly Canadian to have this natural skill for insight and colorful and crisp language.
Someday we will rejoice when Congress passes a law that they write (not the lobbyists representing BIG BUSINESS) that people can understand. Seems each key word in new legislation has a meaning subject to interpretation, rarely in the favor of the constituency. And Congress chides activist judges for creating the law instead of interpreting the law. Like sorting out the fly shit in the milking parlor. Tough job and it stinks in there.
Because it takes so much money for reelection and conflict of interest abounds, I don't believe we will witness Congress regaining their moral compass or integrity compass in this decade. I guess they will fund new roads and bridges because he "CAN" has farther to be kicked down the road and across the river.
On Oct 18 03:55 AM bob adamson wrote:
> As a Canadian observer of the US situation I suggest that Mr. Slavo
> and many of those commenting on his article are being far too pessimistic.
> There is no question that the US now finds itself in a difficult
> economic situation and that a fine and sometimes difficult to discern
> line must be followed if significant further damage to both the current
> US economic situation and to the long term prospects for the US are
> to be avoided. That said, however, it is in the interest of all the
> other significant mature and emerging economies that the US succeed
> in addressing its difficulties. No other economy is free of difficult
> economic challenges at present and most appear prepared to work together
> (and see the necessity that the US continue to be a prime player
> in these efforts) at the long and difficult task of economic recovery.
> The US has met significant challenges in the past and its citizens
> shouldn’t assume that they lack the capacity to meet the current
> challenges.
>
> The UK throughout the 20th century faced analogous challenges (and
> at times faced and met more challenging political and economic predicaments)
> but came through relatively well; especially from the perspective
> of its average citizen. No nation can expect to be far and away
> the undisputed preeminent economic, social and political world power
> for all time and the US position during the 30 years following WW
> II was in large part a reflection of the centuries long eclipse of
> China and India, on the one hand, and the impact of the two World
> Wars on Europe and Japan, on the other. Like the UK before it, the
> US will continue to be the first among equals (even though the emphasis
> in that phrase will be somewhat more on the ‘equals’ part) for the
> foreseeable future. There is no reason why its citizens should not
> remain economic, cultural and political leaders; only that others
> will (as they should in a better world) share these roles to a somewhat
> greater degree.
Shadowstats needs to rename itself. I suggest "NonLinear Trends Extrapolated Linearly Forever .com"
On Oct 17 08:33 AM VennData wrote:
> "Shadowstats.com estimates unemployment is above 20%" Oh, I see.
> Than it must be over 20% All those BLS statisticians toiling under
> administration after administration are engaged in one huge conspiracy
> and only one guy at Shadowstats has all the answers.
>
> And you're really collecting some great data to support your "The
> Middle Class is holding on for dear life." meme.
>
> Put the tin foil hat down.
And yes they do think we are that stupid.
On Oct 17 04:00 PM luv2makemonies wrote:
> We have Wall Street & their greedy corporate cornies to thanks
> for cooking up all this mess. The big difference is that they all
> got bailed out ( GM, AIG, Goldman Sachs, BOA, C, etc)
> All we got was to trade in our clunker cars and lip service. It's
> time to clean house folks we should be mad as hell and not going
> to take this anymore! do they think we're that stupid...
-Ludwig von Mises
Looks like its option #2. This article states the truth. Plain and simple.
You may ignore it at your peril. As stated above by one of the Austrian school of economics founders, the "alternative" looks like the path chosen by those in power. It will get a lot more uglier before getting any better.
The economy may not be depressed, but I sure am.
> I am not a conspiracy theorist but I do believe Obama is a Marxist.
> they will set aside their liberty for comfort, especially when they
> think someone else is paying for it.
The Democratic Party is what has become Marxist. Obama may be also, but the party is way more important. If the middle of the party had any influence Obama would be standing there too.
Iceland goes bankrupt
That’s an amazing sentence: Iceland goes bankrupt. But that’s exactly what happened yesterday. That’s a clear sign that the global financial crisis is entering a new and vastly more dangerous phase.
What ‘bankrupt’ means is just that: The country cannot pay back its external debts, and the Icelandic currency, the krona, has become essentially valueless in the rest of the world. That means the country can no longer pay for imports.
On Oct 19 06:48 PM turtle1663 wrote:
> Find the similarities...
>
> Iceland goes bankrupt
>
> That’s an amazing sentence: Iceland goes bankrupt. But that’s exactly
> what happened yesterday. That’s a clear sign that the global financial
> crisis is entering a new and vastly more dangerous phase.
>
> What ‘bankrupt’ means is just that: The country cannot pay back its
> external debts, and the Icelandic currency, the krona, has become
> essentially valueless in the rest of the world. That means the country
> can no longer pay for imports.
Actually, those toiling BLS statisticians you refer to use different formulas depending on the administration they work for. To compare apples to apples, shadowstats.com applies the formulas used by previously toiling BLS statisticians to get a current number much more comparable to previous numbers. No conspiracy, just a knowledge of the relevant history on the part of Mr. Williams at Shadowstats. Or...not a conspiracy, just a logical adjustment like adjusting the value of something for inflation. In this case, he's adjusting it for political distortions that have occurred for one reason or another.
On Oct 17 08:33 AM VennData wrote:
> "Shadowstats.com estimates unemployment is above 20%" Oh, I see.
> Than it must be over 20% All those BLS statisticians toiling under
> administration after administration are engaged in one huge conspiracy
> and only one guy at Shadowstats has all the answers.
>
> And you're really collecting some great data to support your "The
> Middle Class is holding on for dear life." meme.
>
> Put the tin foil hat down.
On Oct 18 07:03 AM enigmaman wrote:
> We are quite obviously in a time of total chaos, politically, economically,
> socially and morally. During a time when we need to pull together
> we are coming apart at the seems we cannot have any sustained recovery
> in any form without the cooperation of the Government, Wall Street
> and Main street, its just not possible, someone please show when
> America moved forward without their being synergy between all three.
> Ive asked this before but have never received one response.
>
> Someone enlighten me to one time when our economy was in serious
> trouble and it recovered without the cooperation of the Fed Government,
> Wall Street and Main street., just one time and then I will have
> hope that it will also happen this time as well.
On Oct 17 04:00 PM luv2makemonies wrote:
> We have Wall Street & their greedy corporate cornies to thanks
> for cooking up all this mess. The big difference is that they all
> got bailed out ( GM, AIG, Goldman Sachs, BOA, C, etc)
> All we got was to trade in our clunker cars and lip service. It's
> time to clean house folks we should be mad as hell and not going
> to take this anymore! do they think we're that stupid...
Many skilled people have experienced a non-existent job market after they got laid off in the last several years due to cheap labor being brought in and/or outsourcing. They are past unemployment and have taken jobs for 50%-66% LESS than what they were making. (that's the best they could find - if they could find that)
UNDEREMPLOYMENT (guessing - 25%-35%) is much higher than unemployment (10%).
Connect the dots. People who were making $80K-$130K who are now making $35K-$50K are NOT going out and spending like they used to (they are probably already maxed out on their credit cards trying to sustain a lifestyle they can no longer afford).
I know an executive (w/MBA) who was making $200K in a total package who was out-of-work for 21 months and finally took a part-time job that pays $1500 a month. He is still looking for another job. A PhD friend is looking for work and he is in BioTech.
Another MBA making over $250K, took a job for $85K.
Do the math. And those of you blaming the individual for their "self-inflicted woes", get laid off and see what type of job you land in this economy. I have seen people who were very smug about the security of their jobs crack when they found out they were on the street.
On Oct 19 12:56 PM KingGeithner wrote:
> The real Depression is that this writer and many posters on this
> site refuse to believe that anything short of an economic holocaust
> will occur in the US. Things will be bad for years to come, but not
> as doom and gloom as the 100% bears are preaching. These same bears
> have as much conviction in the validity of their opinions as the
> full-on bulls did earlier in the decade. I am always skeptical of
> people who have complete blind faith in their own opinions.
As for the premise of the article, enough easy money is coming thru the pipeline that deflation/depression has likely been averted for now. The main question seems to be will we see stagflation/weak recovery or hyperinflation/more robust recovery in the coming years. And, of course, any remaining chance for long term economic health depends on breaking the cycle of easy money, bubble forms, bubble bursts, more easy money, next bubble forms.
It is simply an arm of Corporate America.
Do we REALLY need 780+ military bases world-wide?
Do we REALLY think that spending $1,000,000 per year, per soldier in Afghanistan is going to achieve MORE security than, say, using that same $1 million to put 50+ people through college every year?
Why is the DoDefense a Sacred Cow? What do we, the citizens of USA, gain from the hundreds of billions spent yearly on war and defense?
Everyone believes that there is massive waste in the DoD.
Slash spending there in the Military/DoD; close bases world-wide; demand efficient spending of $$ or close the purse!
On Oct 17 03:43 PM SPOTS wrote:
> We cannot pay off the debt! It is too massive, and anyone who says
> we can hasn't run the numbers, is outright lying or is just listening
> to some other clueless mouth or liar. I've studied every set of "real"
> numbers, government and private I can find. Then gone over and over
> them again. My 2 year old grand daughter will live in a busted, highly
> taxed, high interest rate country, financially controlled by foreigners.
> I hate the facts, they make me literally sick, but I see no way around
> them.
>
> There are some real out of the box ideas floating out there, all
> with massive unintended consequences and without sufficient numbers
> to run charts and series. I don't even remotely agree with any of
> them for moral reasons, but the authors do see the extent of the
> problem. Because Social Security, Medicare and the Military are 75%
> of federal spending, the ideas are all so contra-social that short
> of civil war, revolution, or worse they won't happen. Examples are:
> 1. Printing enough money to pay of the debt. (COLAs everywhere would
> have to be eliminated first, and the countries that own our debt
> would have to be so convinced by demonstrable poverty that they'd
> see we could never pay them back with real money - or they would
> put frighteningly burdensome attachments to all our debt). Cut Social
> Security in half, no less.
> Limit Medicare to patients that can go back to work after treatment.
> (Minor changes won't make it). Also do away with at least half of
> the military. Admittedly it is a huge employment firm, but the worst
> use of money is to blow it up while creating millions of lifelong
> enemies. 3. Eliminate ALL government pensions and retirement medical
> coverage starting now. That will take care of cutting back the military
> and most other government programs. 4. Outlaw the use of any "new"
> medical treatments on anyone, unless they are cheaper than the previous
> ones. Also outlaw current treatments that cost more per month than
> the average taxpayer makes. 5. After all the above still don't work,
> do away with the U.S. as a nation. Recreate another with pieces of
> others, selling off parts, putting greater spending and corruption
> restrictions on the new government.
On Oct 18 08:58 AM Gavin G wrote:
> I do not live in your country but know it well.
> Some views :
> 1) There is a universal Law which has always worked for individuals,
> families, countries and the whole world.No one is exempt.The Law
> is:
> All excesses will be punished.
> This is not any religious stuff but plain common sense.
> The corollaries
> - more the punishment is delayed more severe will be the punishment.
>
> - any effort to prevent the Law from working leads to more disastrous
> consequences
> - even conservative guys inside a system committing such excesses
> will be punished, they cannot ask whey are being unfairly punished
>
> - If you do not commit excesses in 99 activities but commit excess
> in only one activty , you will be neverthless punished even for that
> one excess.
> - so the smartest thing is not to commit any excesses and if necessary
> take the punishement as early as possible.
> 2) No one seems to undersand the real problems facing USA today<br/>The
> major problems are as follows
> - excessive leverage and debt accumulation over the last twenty years
> by both institutions and individuals
> - pulling of demand from future to present being done for many years
> indiscriminately
> - corruption and systematic destruction of major institutions and
> systems by powerful vested interests
> - loss of manufacturing competitiveness in many sectors over the
> last two decades
> - general tendency of all educated people to always look for an easy
> way to make big time money in the shortest possible time with the
> result the total social culture has been vitiated totally.
> - So the excesses have been done on many fronts and for many years
> by both institutions and individuals
>
> So another Great Depression is a good possibility.
>
> If you guys are interested , can suggest remedial measures
>
>
> Gavin G
On Oct 20 09:01 AM djj420 wrote:
> The newfound concern for fiscal soundness on the right is novel.
> Yes, Obama has run up more debt than all his predecessors combined-
> but the same was true of both Bushes and Reagan. GWB was just the
> latest in a long line of GOPers whose fiscal action didn't match
> their rhetoric. The only modern president who left office with the
> country in less debt than when he entered was Clinton. Put that in
> your pipe and smoke it.
>
> As for the premise of the article, enough easy money is coming thru
> the pipeline that deflation/depression has likely been averted for
> now. The main question seems to be will we see stagflation/weak recovery
> or hyperinflation/more robust recovery in the coming years. And,
> of course, any remaining chance for long term economic health depends
> on breaking the cycle of easy money, bubble forms, bubble bursts,
> more easy money, next bubble forms.
Stock market has become a place for TRADING and not investing. Is is just another Ponzi scheme dreamed up by the fincancial community? Who pays for all of those analysts, stock brokers, and Hedge fund managers? It is us boomers with 401-K's still believing that we can make 10% per year by dumping 10% of our earnings into Mutual Funds?.
Let's see, what level was the dow in 1999??
1) Taxes keep going up, despite campaign promises.
2) Government not only refuses to reign in spending, but has accelerated its deficit spending!
1) China and the US will always work together and the rest of the world will NEVER be close to them
2) the american dollar will continue its slow gradual decline like it has since 1945
3) large cap multinational companies will continue to do well
4) the Us economy will NOT grow until a more business friendly tx cutting lower govt spending culture is in place
Choosing great dividend paying appropriately priced US multinational stocks has and will continue to be the best course of action
2)
But, its a logical leap from those indisputable and immediate issues to how the article ends-
"We are in the opening stages of the Greatest Depression, a term coined by Trends Forecast founder Gerald Celente. The next stage, as Mr. Celente has said, will be “like nothing we've ever seen in our life time."
Come on, by almost any measure we are a lot less close the financial edge than only 9 months ago. On the other hand, we have a long way to go, and a lot of problems to solve.
Lots of good comments have expressed interesting and diverse reasons for these problems;
-Its the Dems,...the Reps, or BOTH, Obama, "W", Clinton, and even Carter(now thats a really long view)!
-Its the capilalists, no the socialists, maybe the poor or the really rich( Remember when a millionaire was really rich).
I think the Canadian Observer that had it closest, its excesses that leads to bubbles that always pop. We all participated and benefited. We all are left to pick up the pieces. Its not the end of the US economy, or the dollar, the middle class, and not every really rich person is permanently leaving the country. This is our country, rich or poor.
A common thread I share with most of the commentors is a grave disappointment with how our country has been led for too many years, and isn't changing much. We need the leaders we elect to seriously serve our common interests, to face the issues head on. Here's an email I recently received. Its what I am doing, its not exactly my opinion, but its a good start.
Subject: 2010 Election
In November of 2010 the entire House of Representatives will have to stand for re-election; all 435 of them. One third of the Senate, a total of 33 of them, will also stand for re-election. Vote every incumbent out. And I mean every damned one of them. No matter their Party affiliation. Let's start all over in the House of Representatives with 435 people who have absolutely no experience in running that body, with no political favors owed to anyone but their own constituents. Let's make them understand that they work for us. They are answerable to us and they simply have to run that body with some common sense.
Two years later, in 2012, vote the next third of the incumbents in the Senate out. You'll know who they are because their names will be on the ballot and, in most cases, will be shown as the Incumbent.
We, the People, have got to take this Country back and we HAVE to do it peacefully. That's what the Framers of our Constitution envisioned. Please, if you love this Country, send this (as I have done) to absolutely everyone whose email address appears in your address book. This thing can permeate this Country in no time. Let's make it happen.
We are at a fork in the road, and, as much as we try to forecast, so much of what happens we cannot predict.
My plan is to understand the probable, yet incongruent, paths, learn how to identify them and understand how to profit from them.
www.planbeconomics.com.../
I would have thought that at least the economic leaders might have considered that taking debt to bail out companies suffering from the issuance of bad debt, lead us to the problem in the first place. The banks thought they were indomitable, just as did the homeowners talking out the loans they could ill afford. Leverage is fine only to a point as insolvency problems propagate up the lender food chain - the US is next on the list, tragically and precisely because of the same arrogance homeowners and banks have had.
As the US dollar weakens, we'll see benchmarks shift to other currencies, which will be the beginning of the end. With some minor T-bill dumping by unnamed Asian countries, the pyre will be built.
We don't need more republicans and democrats in office - we need a new party altogether, an enlightened party that uses the common sense of our grandparents, who first-hand weathered the great depression and actually learned fiscal responsibility from it. That responsibility has been entirely lost to the American public and our 4 short-year-sighted leadership.
Hope you're hedging your investments with gold and guns.
A lot of people don't see the way out, but I do. The renewable energy sources only have to reduce demand by a few percentage points to lower natural gas prices tremendously or keep them low. Then, a few major transporters need to adopt it as the fuel for their business. After a few years, the cost of energy will come down for the average person, or the cost of goods with energy as a major component will come down. THAT will stimulate the economy to the tune of at least a TRILLION per year. It would take the continuation of the leftist idiot in the White House to screw that natural stimulus up. 2010 will decide our fates.
A few rotten apples can spoil the entire barrel, but change is the only constant.
Please, I'd like to hear a rebuttal to this - traders - got any?
On Oct 20 11:24 AM Luke Skywooker wrote:
> Other problems.
>
> Stock market has become a place for TRADING and not investing. Is
> is just another Ponzi scheme dreamed up by the fincancial community?
> Who pays for all of those analysts, stock brokers, and Hedge fund
> managers? It is us boomers with 401-K's still believing that we can
> make 10% per year by dumping 10% of our earnings into Mutual Funds?.
>
>
> Let's see, what level was the dow in 1999??
On Oct 20 11:11 AM Yurasis_Dragon wrote:
> The Military consumes upwards of 50% of our yearly expenses.
> It is simply an arm of Corporate America.
> Do we REALLY need 780+ military bases world-wide?
> Do we REALLY think that spending $1,000,000 per year, per soldier
On Oct 17 10:22 AM The Geoffster wrote:
> I am not a conspiracy theorist but I do believe Obama is a Marxist.
> He does not have the dictatorial power to implement the change he
> believes is necessary to redistribute wealth and equalize outcomes
> but he will use the existing levers of power to incrementalize his
> goals by fostering socialized medicine and punitive tax policies
> on the nation. When voters are worried about their jobs and income,
> they will set aside their liberty for comfort, especially when they
> think someone else is paying for it.
On Oct 17 02:38 PM Jasper M wrote:
> EXcellent article. Not flawless, but very, Very timely.
>
> I finished reading it with all sorts of things to say - but the crowd
> of commenters above mostly covered all the bases. It seems I have
> become superfluous. : (
>
> I will say, to ebworth, that not All of the upper class is tyrannical.
> I, for example, pay my taxes, don't take or solicit government handouts,
> and mostly tend to my own knitting. I ask nothing from my fellow
> man that I do not expect to pay for, save honest behavior. And if
> I am not rich enough to be "upper" in your estimation, then the middle
> is not disappearing quite so fast, is it?
>
> At the risk of seeming cold-hearted, it seems to me that any disappearance
> of the middle class is substantially self inflicted, from acceptance
> of the advice of debt-mongers. My instincts, honed from years of
> poverty, pointed in another direction, and now I'm Just Fine.
On Oct 19 07:42 AM Anthony Alfidi wrote:
> The poor prospects for the U.S. economy are already driving PhD students
> from China and India to return to their home countries after they
> complete their studies here. The educated U.S. elite may follow suit
> and decamp for more economically hospitable climes. The loss of a
> professional class of scientists, engineers, and managers will do
> irreparable harm to American competitiveness.
On Oct 17 09:01 AM logicalthought wrote:
> >>The reason we are in a recession is because... people believed
> that their wealth was increasing and loaded up on debt.<<
>
> Yeah, no kidding. Where your comment gets a little scary is when
> you talk about "social phenomenom that increase consumer capital".
> I don't know what kind of "social phenomenom" you're talking about,
> but the only decent long-term solution to "too much debt" is "spend
> less while you pay it off" or "declare bankruptcy". Either choice
> among consumers will solve the problem, and any OTHER choice will
> just create NEW problems. And as for the banks, instead of creating
> Japanese-style zombies (which is exactly what the Wall Street cronies
> in the Treasury department have done to our banking system), we should
> have crammed all of those banks' debtholders down to common, and
> presto: the balance sheets would have been fixed and the banks would
> be able to lend to creditworthy customers. This is what our disgusting
> Treasury department should have done instead of its Band-Aid bailouts.
>
On Oct 17 07:18 AM Philly Jim wrote:
Who would have ever imagined finding better living conditions outside of the U.S.A.?
change in the Justice System? Because the Lawyer's go every year with
a lot of money to Wahington DC. to make sure "Thing's" don't change .So who votes for the crook's in DC ? You, because they are singing your "SONG" and you go for it. The education system is a Disaster, with the exception of some great Universities the USA is raising the DUMMEST children in the world. In Europe we are done with High School at age 14 and one must know a Language .Mother's who look like worn out Soap Opera stars run in the School's and tell the teachers what to do because they like to be important . Dr. Spock caused more DAMAGE than anybody ever can imagine .The Unions run any major business in the Ground and soon the USA cannot compete with anybody .So, the USA is a great Country but has a very sick society who can't buy Lunch without a Credit Card.One can live off the Land only for so long but then there will be Disaster ,the USA needs to export more than a few Airplanes and Corn. In the 30's times where bad but back then the USA had real People with STANDING POWER .Ever ask yourself why many old People are Married for 40,50, 70 years ? Because they where for real, today there are whimp's and bitches .The USA has the most Religious Fanatic's who forget that we live
life in this world first and the world is 4.5Billion years old and has 4.6 Billion
years to go because then the Sun is burned out and no God will change that.
Fear is the gretest selling point of any Religion, go for it if you can't trust
Fact's because you are so insecure.
The health care System is another Disaster,the USA runs the Veterans
Hospitals well and can run any healthcare System, why will the Insurance
companies run us in the Poor House,because the insurance companies and too many Dr.s want to make more and more money .You don't like a national helthcare System ?Think ,you already have one ,anybody can go in any Hospital and they must take care for you, who is paying for it ? You ! The USA spends four times more on Medicare than most European Countrys spent on covering everybody.Yes, I know , you love to watch TV and you have seen the Horror Stories sponsored by Insurance Companys .The fact is ,thing's in the healthcare System work smooth over there,you lost a tooth, they give you a porcelain tooth you can spend money,go accros the street and they will give you a Golden tooth. See how fair the System Works there .
America you must change your way's because "Things" can get UGLY !
Simple sit all the companies down that are interested in a five year tax break that will start when they want it to. What they have to do is bring manufacturing back to the US of some item and receive a tax free benefit on each item.
This would cause us to increase jobs instantaneously.
This would cause a huge amount of money that would be taxed by those wage earners.
This would be the start of a great foundation for us to move forward on.
This has no loss of taxes currently being paid, but has the benefit of increasing our tax base.
Instead of stealing from good people that live here we can just stop paying China and all the other manufacturing countries.
We are getting what we asked for.
On Oct 17 09:05 AM TripleG wrote:
> I hate to admit that this article is right (my opinion). We (the
> congressmen anyway) have run up such an insurmountable debt that
> we have no way out of this mess other than a long hard slug of business
> stagnation and personal failures. Real Estate foreclosures will continue
> despite the announcement of 'the recession is over' by Bernanke,
> Obama and Co., and others.
And some of your factoids do not have validity in this situation. The much-cited Japanese stagnancy has nothing to do with our current crisis. Real Estate declined by 80%, because it was 500% overvalued. At the peak, 1 square meter of prime Tokyo Real Estate sold for $1USD million. The stock market was trading at a PE of 100 (not the current 15 of the SP500).
What I find most instructive about this post is the number of emotional commentators agreeing with your thesis versus those that oppose your view. The Bear Camp is alive and well and rabid as ever. The "Bear gutting" from SP500 at 666 to the current 1090 has not diminished Bearish enthusiasm. As a contrarian, I see that as a very Bullish indication and will stay Long the market.
Point taken about stocks being leading indicator, but please consider the notion of wave 3 down...
And schools. Maybe, after teaching us the catechism they will get on to the basics of economics.......
On Oct 17 10:38 AM ron_paulite wrote:
> The real disaster will come but the dollar falls so much that USA
> cannot attract the best talents from the world anymore. Who will
> want to come to work here if the salary is lower and continue to
> shrink everyday because the dollar keeps on falling?
>
> Somebody on Capitol hill please wake up. A weak currency only
> provides a very temporary boost to the exporters. It is the easiest
> quick fix but one with very painful side effect. Long term, a weak
> currency slowly but surely leads to the irrecoverable economic downfall
> of a country.
Your posting prompted me to research the Glass-Steagall Act, and I completely agree with you on that point.
However, I must interject WRT your statement about Congress paying into Social Security. According to the SSA FAQ page (www.ssa.gov/history/hf...) "All members of Congress, the President and Vice President, Federal judges, and most political appointees, were covered under the Social Security program starting in January 1984. They pay into the system just like everyone else. Thus all members of Congress, no matter how long they have been in office, have been paying into the Social Security system since January 1984."
Term-limits, lobbying restrictions, and...if I may...strong, "loophole"- proof campaign finance reform [essentially eliminating special interest group's influence, and the IOUs that inevitably follow our elected officials into office], I believe, will serve as the basis for 'righting this ship'.
In spite of our Nation's woes...I can say (with first-hand knowledge), it's still the best around. Neither myself nor any of my brothers/sisters in uniform will ever seize fighting on behalf of this country that has given so much for the benefit of so many.
All the Way!
-Rob
On Oct 17 01:03 PM Jimbo wrote:
> Many responders seem to think that those nasty Republicans are responsible
> for our predicament. They are only partly correct. Actually, BOTH
> political parties have sold out to "Government" Sachs. Note who was
> the Secretary of Treasury for Clinton,Bush(43) and Obama. Both parties
> have sold their soul for campaign funds from financial interests.
> To reform this mess: A Constitutional Amendment limiting total time
> of any house of Congress to 12 years(two terms in the Senate or 6
> in the House), A law making it a felony for any past member of Congress
> to lobby, a reinstatement of the Glass-Steagall Act. Congress has
> exempted itself from the Civil Rights Act of 1964, paying Social
> security taxes, and the provisions of the OSHA act. Mark Twain said
> that Congress was the only unique criminal class produced by the
> U.S. It is time for us to stop Congress from screwing us!!!!
On Oct 18 12:12 PM Kevin_T wrote:
> I watch places like Disney World, local expensive restaurants, airline
> passengers, expensive hotels, cruise ship companies and cable TV
> customer growth.
>
> If or when the consumer truly starts to feel pinched, they will cut
> back dramatically on these non-essential costs and luxuries to divert
> the money to rent, energy, food and medicine, the essentials of life.
>
>
> So far there has been only relatively small reductions being reported
> by these companies, the cruise ships are still departing daily, airports
> are choked with tourists and Disney World still has big lines inside
> the park. There has not been anything like the 50% or more reductions
> in entertainment one would expect to see if consumers are really
> being forced to cut back.
>
> Right now this discretionary consumption is being fueled by unprecedented
> borrowing and printing of money by governments. But keep watching,
> the tab eventually must be paid.
Jeff Spicolli, 1982
There were no bailouts or subsuming of bond holder rights or bank failures or unemployment at 15% or higher.
Everything is just great!
That stock market is going to lift, by sheer numbers on the ticker, 10 million back into meaningful careers. That market and Wall Street and those Bankers and the FED are going to dead-lift 9 trillion and put us back to prudence, productivity, and fiscal responsibility. I just know it!
C'mon! Let's go down to see our brokers and load up on Financials and GM and Chrysler and buy some Life Insurance Default swaps. The party's on again gang! Free pretzels and beer!
Leave those stick in the mud "bears" to collect berries and locate a cave for the Winter - Happy Days are Here Again!
This is a quote from Monday's article on Seeking Alpha by David Brown of Sabrient Systems. Given todays action in the last half hour and analyst change on Wells Fargo I think it was a good forecast. $5.1 Billion in bad debt on top of what BofA gave us last week.
I am the first to admit that I never know where the market is headed but I think those on CNBC that keeping jumping around over Dow 10,000 are missing some of the serious problems in Banks that are still to come. I have heard as many as 300 banks may still be closed.
Anyone who resorts to conspiracy theories, you don't have to look, they made huge mistakes and have big losses in the past.
Instead of trying to learn from their mistakes and improve their investment strategy, they resort to blaming the *****'s who are wrecking the country and make it impossible for the little guy to get ahead.
Conspiracy crackpots are losers and those who make their investment decisions following conspiracy cranks will have the same investment results.
On Oct 21 08:54 AM ex-wall-streeter wrote:
> The "sky is falling" theme cycles every 5-7 years. After spending
> 20 years on the Street (started in 1968), I have concluded that people
> love conspiracy theories and hate to acknowledge that business and
> the economy is cyclical. We are in a recession and , yes, we will
> cycle out of it in the near future. And if you thing traders are
> making all of the money, become a trade!
(New thread perhaps...? Skimming this one took a good 20min)
On Oct 17 01:59 PM KirbyJF1 wrote:
> You must have been CHICKEN LITTLE in a previous life. What a bunch
> of boulder dash.
>
> Kirby
That would be balderdash.
I haven't read all the comments, but the article makes some excellent points. I tend to think that most middle class Americans have come to grips with the grim reality that their children's futures will be materially worse than theirs--the first time in American history that parents expect their children to achieve less than they did.
On Oct 17 02:54 PM E Nuff Sed wrote:
It's a jolly good "depression".
Yes and the band played...as the Titanic went down
On Oct 17 07:32 AM LilBob wrote:
> To me this is fear mongering, brought on by a lack of willingness
> to understand what's really going on in the economy. During the Bush
> administration we had an increase in the concentration of capital
> in the hands of the wealthiest Americans, just like we saw in this
> country during the "Robber Baron" age from roughly 1895 to the early
> 1930s. In a capitalist economy, there are two kinds of capital: investor
> capital and consumer capital-we can also refer to these two types
> of capital as supply capital and demand capital. When capital becomes
> too highly concentrated in the hands of investors while working class
> wages stagnate, we end up with a situation where sales decline generally
> while new more aggressive investment schemes are fabricated to create
> the illusion of increasing wealth for the investment class. The only
> solution to this problem is for social phenomenon that increase consumer
> capital-restore the consumer base-thereby making it possible for
> businesses to keep their doors open. The reason we are in a recession
> is because of several years of misperception on the part of the American
> public-people believed that their wealth was increasing and loaded
> up on debt when their actual wealth-as measured in wages and ability
> (from say, job benefits) to access critical services (such as health
> care) was in steep decline.
>
> As long as there is a willingness to accept the reality of our situation,
> and to address the underlying root causes of the predicament, then
> any disaster may be averted.
On Oct 17 08:33 AM VennData wrote:
> "Shadowstats.com estimates unemployment is above 20%" Oh, I see.
> Than it must be over 20% All those BLS statisticians toiling under
> administration after administration are engaged in one huge conspiracy
> and only one guy at Shadowstats has all the answers.
>
> And you're really collecting some great data to support your "The
> Middle Class is holding on for dear life." meme.
>
> Put the tin foil hat down.
On Oct 17 09:02 AM Dave Wrixon wrote:
> So basically, if you just give the consumer enough money then everything
> will be alright?
>
> But wait a minute. Wasn't that the GWB philosophy that got us into
> this mess?
On Oct 18 05:36 AM Michael Clark wrote:
> Actually, in terms of my metaphysical calculations, the darkest part
> of the depression starts in 2010 and the darkest period runs 2010-2019.
> I realize many will scoff.
>
> Last Night Cycles:
> 1929-1938: Decline of Capitalist Power (Patriarchy).
> 1938-1947: Darkest of Dark Age -- World War II + Great Depression
> of 1946-47
> 1947-1956: Re-birth of the Light
> 1956-1965: Golden Age of Capitalism (Triumph of Patriarchy)
>
> 1965-1974: Decline of Capitalist Power (Patriarchy).
> 1974 - 1983: Darkest of Dark Age -- anyone who lived through this
> period in America remembers how dark it was. I can document this
> if necessary.
> 1983 - 1992: Rebirth of the Light
> 1992-2001: Golden Age of Capitalism (Triumph of Patriarchy)
>
> 2001-2010: Decline of Capitalist Power (Patriarchy).
> 2010-2019: Deepest Night of the Dark Age.
>
> Earth Time Structure
> Noon: Apex and descent of Light (no shadow at Noon, but strength
> of the shadow begins to grow). Analogical historical period: Empire
> of Reason and Science. Opposition to Relligion. Anti-Heaven, anti-God.
> Earthy system of beliefs.
>
> Dusk: Light and Darkness are at equal strength, but Darkness is winning
> (Dusk to Midnight) is deepest part of Dark Age. analogical historical
> period: Romantic Movements. Romantic Man is rooted in Science and
> is moving back toward Religion.
>
> Midnight: Apex and descent of Darkness (no light at Midnight, but
> strength of light begins to grow). Analogical historical period:
> Birth of Christ and Christianity. Dark Age, triumph of Religion (Gothic
> mysticism). Opposition to Science (materialism), worldliness. Anti-Earth.
>
>
> Dawn: Light and Darkness are at equal strength, but Light is winning
> (Dawn to Noon) is the Golden Age of Light. Analogical historical
> period: Renaissance Europe. Renaissance Man is man rooted in religion
> moving toward science.
>
> For those interested I've calculated the 'Time" as being 5:50 PM
> on the Historical Clock. See the diagram below:
>
> seekingalpha.com/insta...
>
The true "gloom and doomers" are the delusional optimists who allowed the bubble to form. The Bust is here, deal with it.
On Oct 17 08:33 AM VennData wrote:
> "Shadowstats.com estimates unemployment is above 20%" Oh, I see.
> Than it must be over 20% All those BLS statisticians toiling under
> administration after administration are engaged in one huge conspiracy
> and only one guy at Shadowstats has all the answers.
>
> And you're really collecting some great data to support your "The
> Middle Class is holding on for dear life." meme.
>
> Put the tin foil hat down.
Feel free to believe this article and ride your political beliefs but have you already screwed yourself by missing this run???
Yes, this is a rant, but everybody else posts their bs opinion. The difference is that my bs opinion will at least not take up space on the front page, it will be burried in a thread where only a few people will have the dis-pleasure of reading it.
Here is an opinion - yes, it is premature to declare the recession is over, and no we are not headed to a 'greatest depression'.
Here is what is arguably a fact: the Great Depression in 1929 had essentially the same causes as the current recession. Easy money was the primary cause, and this lead to excess in peoples' lifestyles, and more importantly, big companies over leveraging themselves. Once margin calls came in, individuals were wiped out. This all lead to the downward spiral.
Here are undesputable facts: In 1929, there was zero social safety net. Social Security Benefit = 0. Unemployment Benefit = 0. This would mean that back in the Great Depression, (Remember? The one this recession will supposedly surpass?) you did not fall off the unemployment payroll. You were never on it in the first place. If you lost your job you would be pennyless and destitute.
Also, most people didn't own a house back then. To grumble on about a forclosure problem is meaningless since there are too many home owners in the U.S. to begin with.
A broken global credit market.
Increasing Federal debt.
Lack of transperency in mortgage backed securities.
Mountains of consumer and corporate debt.
Monetization of the National Debt.
Chronic high unemployment.
Hedge funds - borrowed short/lent long at more than $500 billion.
Double wave of mortgage resets.
House prices continue to fall.
Large shadow inventory of foreclosed houses unreported.
Impending collapse of commercial real estate.
Huge crises lurking in over-the-counter derivatives.
Under-funded pensions.
Impending municipal bond and municipal bond hedge fund failures.
Increasing numbers of bank failures.
Insurance company collapses.
Worsening state, county and city budget crises.
No confidence in the USD.
Ongoing asset deflation with currency inflation.
A decrepid falling apart infrastructure.
Ok. Show me where the economy is improving? HELLO? Depression is here. Going to get a lot worse before it gets any better. Even then prepare for a lower standard of living - much lower.
On Oct 22 11:32 AM User 67818 wrote:
> Mac Slavo has put his reputation as a prognosticater on the line.
> Let's see how he does-But let's put a time limit on this-Say one
> year. Today, October 22 :NEW YORK – A private forecast of economic
> activity rose for the sixth straight month in September, a sign the
> economy will keep growing next year.
Assuming we are now smarter and more informed than those people in 1930 to predict a "greatest depression yet to come"......then are we not "smart" enough to prevent it from happening "again"?
On Oct 17 10:22 AM The Geoffster wrote:
> I am not a conspiracy theorist but I do believe Obama is a Marxist.
> He does not have the dictatorial power to implement the change he
> believes is necessary to redistribute wealth and equalize outcomes
> but he will use the existing levers of power to incrementalize his
> goals by fostering socialized medicine and punitive tax policies
> on the nation. When voters are worried about their jobs and income,
> they will set aside their liberty for comfort, especially when they
> think someone else is paying for it.
Here is another resource for those doubting the DIRE condition we are really facing.
Get educated and watch the documentary : "I.O.U.S.A."
The decline of the American Empire is upon us. Policymakers will not change course without anything short of a revolution.
On Oct 22 05:51 PM From_MIT wrote:
> This market keeps ignoring unemployment, crashing dollar and huge
> deficits.
>
> good articles 4 slow news day: tinyurl.com/finance-ar...
>
>
> buying seems to be the best strategy
MIT will have a branch in Abu Dhabi. They want it, and they will be rewarded for it, with incredible piles of money used to build "infrastructure," as we now seem to call fancy buildings with fancy stuff in them and fancy roads to get to them.
If Homeland Security won't let MIT import the best brains in the world in through a time-consuming and expensive filter beyond their own filters, then they will just make a branch offshore, closer to some of the brains that they want anyway. Thinking local may mean less transportation subsidies for transporting the young brains.
The old brains tend to like to travel.
I hear they have been finding some really good brains from Africa and Russia, not to mention China and India. You can read and watch YouTubes about these kids who invent pumps and other amazing things out of old bike parts. They figure out how to do it by spending time in libraries.
MIT likes initiative and could apparently care less about who your parents are. I know because I'm nobody, and I have a kid there.
Who came up with the blowing-skirts-up machines at U.S. airports, by the way? To me, this is sort of emblematic of how the U.S. government spends money.
Level heads roll eyes at the skirt machine, but at least the people who get jobs observing the blown skirts have some money with which to buy houses in some parts of the country.
The sophisticated street knows which country's ordinary people dominated the on-line shoe-throwing contest. They understand perfectly well that ordinary U.S. people are paying protection money that often doesn't work as promised for ordinary people.
I have noticed the Pakistani spokespeople with those lovely lilts throwing it gently back at our elite newspeople when asked about corruption.
They also know that U.S. people sulk in their garages and basements inventing utterly off-the-wall playthings when unemployed, whether they have told their employer to take the job and shove it, or whether the employer has gently told them that the retention-bonus has expired and the severance-payment and counseling lines are over there.
They also know some of our own people blow our own stuff up. Possibly they remember Oklahoma City, Waco, and Ruby Ridge. They know about our current Prohibition and about our incarceration rates. Some of our offshore prison guards worked onshore before going off.
Regarding U.S. unions, there are likely some clean ones. The ones who use coercion and corruption are doing the equivalent of wired-in attempts at subsidies that multi-nationals do. It works in a short-term, but backfires in a longer term.
If a pork-retention specialist loses an election or goes to jail, the bonus-over-value can evaporate for corporations or unions who play this way.
I'm all for workers owning businesses in a transparent way. Without transparency, thuggery engenders blowback.
Over time, transparent operations will win because they are entertaining and enlightening in addition to producing things that people want.
It's hard to see this in the middle of a transition time, but the re-cap of the 70's above helped me to get this in more perspective.
Carefully watching patterns and anticipating them seems to be something that gets lost in top-down, yes-person environments.
As for what to do, I have some investments in renewable energy and some in a Brazilian ETF. Brazil has some transparent companies. Also, some cities there have done well with class mobility and making inclusive social structures.
Brazil has done a relatively good job of getting advantage with the best of the "left" and the best of the "right," whatever specifically those antiquated terms mean.
I haven't done it for a while, but you can search Curitiba for an example of an interesting city down there. Curitiba has been much admired by researchers like Bill McKibben.
For taxable savings, so far I have been ok with local double tax-free municipals in a mutual fund.
I bank with a local credit union where I am on a first-name basis with my favorite teller and where I have found them to be responsive to my sometimes impertinent questions. I check them out periodically on BankRate.com.
Employee turnover has been a sign of impending doom at some banks I have used in the past, so I like that the same people stick around. They also do constant customer-service research which I find to be a sign of conscientiousness.
I am aware that rating agencies can make mistakes. I do not know if BankRate.com has a competitor that I could check as well, but for now that is the best I know to do.
On Oct 17 08:33 AM VennData wrote:
> "Shadowstats.com estimates unemployment is above 20%" Oh, I see.
> Than it must be over 20% All those BLS statisticians toiling under
> administration after administration are engaged in one huge conspiracy
> and only one guy at Shadowstats has all the answers.
>
> And you're really collecting some great data to support your "The
> Middle Class is holding on for dear life." meme.
>
> Put the tin foil hat down.
On Oct 17 03:43 PM SPOTS wrote:
> We cannot pay off the debt! It is too massive, and anyone who says
> we can hasn't run the numbers, is outright lying or is just listening
> to some other clueless mouth or liar. I've studied every set of "real"
> numbers, government and private I can find. Then gone over and over
> them again. My 2 year old grand daughter will live in a busted, highly
> taxed, high interest rate country, financially controlled by foreigners.
> I hate the facts, they make me literally sick, but I see no way around
> them.
>
> There are some real out of the box ideas floating out there, all
> with massive unintended consequences and without sufficient numbers
> to run charts and series. I don't even remotely agree with any of
> them for moral reasons, but the authors do see the extent of the
> problem. Because Social Security, Medicare and the Military are 75%
> of federal spending, the ideas are all so contra-social that short
> of civil war, revolution, or worse they won't happen. Examples are:
> 1. Printing enough money to pay of the debt. (COLAs everywhere would
> have to be eliminated first, and the countries that own our debt
> would have to be so convinced by demonstrable poverty that they'd
> see we could never pay them back with real money - or they would
> put frighteningly burdensome attachments to all our debt). Cut Social
> Security in half, no less.
> Limit Medicare to patients that can go back to work after treatment.
> (Minor changes won't make it). Also do away with at least half of
> the military. Admittedly it is a huge employment firm, but the worst
> use of money is to blow it up while creating millions of lifelong
> enemies. 3. Eliminate ALL government pensions and retirement medical
> coverage starting now. That will take care of cutting back the military
> and most other government programs. 4. Outlaw the use of any "new"
> medical treatments on anyone, unless they are cheaper than the previous
> ones. Also outlaw current treatments that cost more per month than
> the average taxpayer makes. 5. After all the above still don't work,
> do away with the U.S. as a nation. Recreate another with pieces of
> others, selling off parts, putting greater spending and corruption
> restrictions on the new government.
"The Pauperization of the American Workforce." (Still available in his archives.) Here we are.
On Oct 17 07:32 AM LilBob wrote:
> To me this is fear mongering, brought on by a lack of willingness
> to understand what's really going on in the economy. During the Bush
> administration we had an increase in the concentration of capital
> in the hands of the wealthiest Americans, just like we saw in this
> country during the "Robber Baron" age from roughly 1895 to the early
> 1930s. In a capitalist economy, there are two kinds of capital: investor
> capital and consumer capital-we can also refer to these two types
> of capital as supply capital and demand capital. When capital becomes
> too highly concentrated in the hands of investors while working class
> wages stagnate, we end up with a situation where sales decline generally
> while new more aggressive investment schemes are fabricated to create
> the illusion of increasing wealth for the investment class. The only
> solution to this problem is for social phenomenon that increase consumer
> capital-restore the consumer base-thereby making it possible for
> businesses to keep their doors open. The reason we are in a recession
> is because of several years of misperception on the part of the American
> public-people believed that their wealth was increasing and loaded
> up on debt when their actual wealth-as measured in wages and ability
> (from say, job benefits) to access critical services (such as health
> care) was in steep decline.
>
> As long as there is a willingness to accept the reality of our situation,
> and to address the underlying root causes of the predicament, then
> any disaster may be averted.
Bye Bye Miss American Pie
On Oct 21 04:48 PM ebworthen wrote:
> Everything is great!
>
> There were no bailouts or subsuming of bond holder rights or bank
> failures or unemployment at 15% or higher.
>
> Everything is just great!
>
> That stock market is going to lift, by sheer numbers on the ticker,
> 10 million back into meaningful careers. That market and Wall Street
> and those Bankers and the FED are going to dead-lift 9 trillion and
> put us back to prudence, productivity, and fiscal responsibility.
> I just know it!
>
> C'mon! Let's go down to see our brokers and load up on Financials
> and GM and Chrysler and buy some Life Insurance Default swaps. The
> party's on again gang! Free pretzels and beer!
>
> Leave those stick in the mud "bears" to collect berries and locate
> a cave for the Winter - Happy Days are Here Again!
You are correct -Here in North metro Atlanta however , some folks are begining to see the truth . Some folks are wanting out of their Mcmansions to head north to the mountains to live in a family owned cabin .Unemployment is really bad here . Truth is , only local + federal government workers + educators seem to be ' immune' to this crisis . Retired military are well off too . Something is really wrong with this picture !
Google "myopia", and seek help.
On Oct 17 11:27 AM Buckoux wrote:
> Quoted below is the only intelligent and cogent opinion in both the
> article and the comments. Run for office , Angel, and I'll vote
> for you and/or donate to your campaign.
>
> On Oct 17 10:44 AM Angel Martin wrote:
meanwhile, as you correctly point out, unprecedented gambits are being taken by the government to make this phantasmagoria possible.
there's a good reason why insiders - like CEO's - are getting the hell out of the stock market, regardless of what these Fantasy Football wanna-be coach types are being fooled into thinking.
the writing is on the wall, and this empire will collapse in the same manner of so many others. these stat geeks would do well to read more history (see, "the rise and fall of the great powers, by paul kennedy).
On Oct 18 05:05 AM Michael Clark wrote:
i> where the Fed has been giving away free money to keep the stock markeat
> rising, and using its own money to buy all the TBonds no one else
> wants, in order to keep interest rates at 0. This is an historically
> unique situation -- meaning many if not all of the historical indicators
> we have used may be and probably are contaminated by manipulation
> of markets by the Fed on a HUGE scale.
"System of economic, social, and political philosophy based on the idea that class struggle is the """"motor of history,"""" and that the outdated class structures will be overthrown with force (revolution) instead of being replaced through patient modification. It explains that as the capitalism has succeeded the feudalism, it too will be removed by a dictatorship of the workers (proletariat) called socialism, followed quickly and inevitably by a classless society which governs itself without a governing class or structure. Developed in the 19th century jointly by two lifelong German friends living in London Karl Marx (1818-1883) and Friedrich Engels (1820-1895) it forms the foundation of communism. "
Unfortunately there are a lot of ill-informed people out there who still associate Marx and Engels' brilliant work with communism.
Isn't this the same libertarianism that Obama is fighting for?
On Oct 17 09:02 AM Dave Wrixon wrote:
> So basically, if you just give the consumer enough money then everything
> will be alright?
>
> But wait a minute. Wasn't that the GWB philosophy that got us into
> this mess?
If more evidence was needed that the Bank of England’s quantitative easing (QE) program was wholly ineffective in its efforts to generate real economic growth, it arrived by the truck load this week on confirmation that Q3 GDP contracted and the UK economy is still officially in recession.
In fact it would take a vivid imagination or a deep misunderstanding of financial markets to think that the BoE’s purchase of £175bn worth of government bonds, bought with printed money, would do anything economically productive at all.
Investment banks and other financial institutions happily sold the Gilts to the BoE and received the cash in return. Those institutions then proceeded to either shore up their balance sheets or speculate with the cash buying equities and other risky assets.
Add into the equation the fact that some of the Gilt sellers were non-UK based banks and therefore much of the proceeds of the £175bn injection left the country, you have yourself a very silly UK economic recovery strategy indeed.
Ask yourself these questions:
How can £175bn’s worth of financial speculation, the buying and selling of financial instruments create real jobs or real economic growth? It can’t, but it can boost bonuses in the City and give institutional traders money to play with.
And considering which companies got us into this economic mess is there an industry less deserving than the banking industry for such a cash injection? Many people think not.
It is this type of financial insanity; speculation with cheap money, that prompted Matt Taibbi to describe a certain investment bank as a “great vampire squid wrapped around the face of humanity, relentlessly jamming its blood funnel into anything that smells like money.”
So whilst the UK struggles through its longest recession since records began and unemployment continues to worsen fairly considerably, UK equities have bounced 50% since the trough of the bear market. Those facts sum up why the BoE’s recent contribution to the creation of real jobs and real economic growth is so small it’s barely visible to the naked eye. But their chums in the City are sure to receive a cracking bonus at the end of the year after speculating with the quantitative easing program’s cash.
For the record UK GDP contracted 0.4% in the June to September quarter. The economy has now been in recession for six consecutive quarters. Year-on-year contraction now stands at 5.2%. Industrial production over the same period has fallen by 10.4%. UK economic output in Q3 totalled £347.50bn compared to Italy’s £350bn (Source; Citigroup). Admittedly the report of a 0.4% contraction is preliminary, and could be revised upwards, but it’s equally possible later revisions could downgrade the data.
Leading commentators have suggested the BoE and the Government with its equally clueless approach to the economy should be “embarrassed” by the latest data. I think ashamed would be a more fitting emotion.
Alistair Darling, the Chancellor of the Exchequer, responded to the GDP news and predicted hopefully "Growth will return at the turn of year”. Unfortunately, Darling, hope is not a strategy.
The danger, however, in the U.S. is that liberal-minded politicians, media and the educational system have been promoting for decades dependency on government as the "only solution" by inculcating Americans with the notion that they can't compete, are unfair, are exploitive, are dangerous to the planet, and lots of other ridiculous tripe, and, now, finally, far too many people are starting to believe this defeatist view of life.
On Oct 18 03:55 AM bob adamson wrote:
> As a Canadian observer of the US situation I suggest that Mr. Slavo
> and many of those commenting on his article are being far too pessimistic.
> There is no question that the US now finds itself in a difficult
> economic situation and that a fine and sometimes difficult to discern
> line must be followed if significant further damage to both the current
> US economic situation and to the long term prospects for the US are
> to be avoided. That said, however, it is in the interest of all the
> other significant mature and emerging economies that the US succeed
> in addressing its difficulties. No other economy is free of difficult
> economic challenges at present and most appear prepared to work together
> (and see the necessity that the US continue to be a prime player
> in these efforts) at the long and difficult task of economic recovery.
> The US has met significant challenges in the past and its citizens
> shouldn’t assume that they lack the capacity to meet the current
> challenges.
>
> The UK throughout the 20th century faced analogous challenges (and
> at times faced and met more challenging political and economic predicaments)
> but came through relatively well; especially from the perspective
> of its average citizen. No nation can expect to be far and away the
> undisputed preeminent economic, social and political world power
> for all time and the US position during the 30 years following WW
> II was in large part a reflection of the centuries long eclipse of
> China and India, on the one hand, and the impact of the two World
> Wars on Europe and Japan, on the other. Like the UK before it, the
> US will continue to be the first among equals (even though the emphasis
> in that phrase will be somewhat more on the ‘equals’ part) for the
> foreseeable future. There is no reason why its citizens should not
> remain economic, cultural and political leaders; only that others
> will (as they should in a better world) share these roles to a somewhat
> greater degree.
On Oct 17 07:32 AM LilBob wrote:
> To me this is fear mongering, brought on by a lack of willingness
> to understand what's really going on in the economy. During the Bush
> administration we had an increase in the concentration of capital
> in the hands of the wealthiest Americans, just like we saw in this
> country during the "Robber Baron" age from roughly 1895 to the early
> 1930s. In a capitalist economy, there are two kinds of capital: investor
> capital and consumer capital-we can also refer to these two types
> of capital as supply capital and demand capital. When capital becomes
> too highly concentrated in the hands of investors while working class
> wages stagnate, we end up with a situation where sales decline generally
> while new more aggressive investment schemes are fabricated to create
> the illusion of increasing wealth for the investment class. The only
> solution to this problem is for social phenomenon that increase consumer
> capital-restore the consumer base-thereby making it possible for
> businesses to keep their doors open. The reason we are in a recession
> is because of several years of misperception on the part of the American
> public-people believed that their wealth was increasing and loaded
> up on debt when their actual wealth-as measured in wages and ability
> (from say, job benefits) to access critical services (such as health
> care) was in steep decline.
>
> As long as there is a willingness to accept the reality of our situation,
> and to address the underlying root causes of the predicament, then
> any disaster may be averted.
On Oct 17 01:03 PM Jimbo wrote:
> Many responders seem to think that those nasty Republicans are responsible
> for our predicament. They are only partly correct. Actually, BOTH
> political parties have sold out to "Government" Sachs. Note who was
> the Secretary of Treasury for Clinton,Bush(43) and Obama. Both parties
> have sold their soul for campaign funds from financial interests.
> To reform this mess: A Constitutional Amendment limiting total time
> of any house of Congress to 12 years(two terms in the Senate or 6
> in the House), A law making it a felony for any past member of Congress
> to lobby, a reinstatement of the Glass-Steagall Act. Congress has
> exempted itself from the Civil Rights Act of 1964, paying Social
> security taxes, and the provisions of the OSHA act. Mark Twain said
> that Congress was the only unique criminal class produced by the
> U.S. It is time for us to stop Congress from screwing us!!!!
Arguably the analogy of the US today with Rome in its last throws of decline are mistaken and lead US observers to inappropriate and defeatist conclusions. The much better analogy is the UK of 1905. Further, the challenge the US now faces from China is much more like the UK/US rivalry of that era than the UK/German rivalry.
There is no barbaric hoard at the gates, no internal collapse and no loss of internal cohesion. The US has merely lost the artificial pre-eminence of the 30 years immediately following WW II; artificial because Europe and Japan