The World's Top 10 Economies

The US economy is the largest economy in the world. Last year it accounted for more than 1/4th of the world’s GDP. Following the US were Japan, Germany, China and UK. In the top 10 rankings noted below, just two developing economies are represented. China and Brazil are leading the emerging economies by taking a significant portion of the world’s GDP. However due to its population and growth, China’s share of world’s GDP is more than double that of that of Brazil.

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By 2050, China is projected to jump to number one, overtaking the US. India is estimated to become the third largest economy. Replacing many of the developed countries will be other emerging markets like Mexico, Indonesia and Russia. Similar to Brazil, Indonesia has lots of potential to grow due to abundance of natural resources and a huge population, the majority of whom follow Islam.

In the early 1800s, China and India used to be the world’s largest economies. Even colonial powers like the UK and France were behind, accounting for just 5.4% and 5.2% of the world’s output at that time. The US was at number nine in the 1800s. From being a small economy in 1820, the US economy has grown at an astonishing rate to become the largest economy in the world now. Clearly the US economy has outperformed the former economic powers of the UK, France, Spain and Japan in the developed world.

Comments

[Dave Wrixon:]

This is bollocks. Already China is producing and consuming more cars than the US. It is certainly producing and consuming more PCs.

These figures are little more than propaganda. For one the data is way out of date and will be a lot more out of date when the impending dollar crash is behind us.

Also GDP is a very poor measure of economic strength. To get a true picture of the that you need to consider how which activities are actually wealth generating, and how much money is being made by the primary participants, and how much of that is made at home. Most of the US Government support used to rescue GM was actually switched into car production in China. At the moment there are no cars being exported back to the US because they cannot meet domestic demand, but it is only a matter of time.

What people do not understand is that not only is China's and India's economies expanding at around 10% per annum but the underlying increase in the value of the currency is nearly doubling that amount in reality. Conversely, although the US is boasting economic expansion the underlying devaluation of the currency and implicit inflation due to loss of buying power, means that the US economy is actually shrinking. If the unsustainable stimulus being pumped into the US economy were also withdrawn which very soon it must be the rate of contraction would actually be quite abrupt.

2015 is actually much more credible than 2050 in terms of the US being overtaken by China. By 2050, the US could be 4th or 5th. I think it is almost a racing certainly that China will overtake the US by 2020.

Oct 18 11:41 AM

[snagglesnarf:]

It seems as if Dave Wrixon, among many others, have been fooled by the Chinese propaganda machine. As I mentioned in an earlier post, I visited China in August and found their export economy has been badly damaged (vacant factories, warehouses, stores, apartments, etc) The people in Dongguan and Shanghai are in fear and hoarding their money. Exports account for 2/3rds of the Chinese economy and even by their own admission, their exports are off by 25%, though it is probably more. You cannot lose 25% of 2/3rds of your economy and still have growth, even with huge stimulus because the fledgling consumer sector in China has pulled back drastically (go visit a car lot outside of Beijing to see for yourself). The Chinese are simply manufacturing these numbers without independent audit. They conveniently adjusted last years GDP a few points so they could be a fraction ahead of the Germans to make them the world's third largest economy. Most of the Chinese data are fake and exaggerated. There may come a day when China GDP surpasses the US. but it won't be in my lifetime.

Oct 18 06:03 PM

[DormRoom:]

GDP is an artificial equation. It emphasizes consumption/production of material goods, which are largely a consquence of the Madison Avenue Infinite Want machine, over quality of life issues like environmental sustainability.

If the variables of the equation are redefined, or expanded to include/emphasize quality of life variables, a different list emerges.

GDP is just an artifice of modernity. The basic assumption that greater production leads to greater happiness has been shown to be wrong. We produce more now than at any point in human history. We also have a society self-prescribing themselves happiness, because they are disenfranchised with the 'real' world.

GDP is bunk.

Oct 18 06:28 PM

[Vuke:]

Dave Wrixon and Dormroom nail it perfectly. Every lawsuit, every accounting exercise, welfare payment, restaurant meal and so on is multiplied through the chain and added to GDP calculations. In China and other developing nations, little of this occurs and the huge gamut of home manufacturing, roadside stands escape capture in the "official" figures.

The U.S. is far, far less than 25% of the world's economy. When the Chinese, Indians and Brazilians get around to computerizing all their efforts their combined output will dwarf the west. It won't mean that much but will get them better seats at the table.

Oct 18 09:21 PM

[KFC007:]

PRODUCTION IS DRIVEN BY DEMAND. IT IS CERTAIN THAT CHINA AND INDIA WITH HIGHEST FUTURE DEMAND OF GOODS WOULD OUTPRODUCE US AND OTHER WESTERN ECONOMIES. WHAT US CAN DO, IS TO RETURN TO BEING AN EFFICIENT MANUFACTURER. FOR THIS US MUST FOCUS ON CHEAPER AND EFFICIENT PRODUCTION OF ENERGY AND ON BOOSTING DOMESTIC DEMAND.

Oct 19 11:04 AM