Today in Commodities: Many Ways to Skin a Cat

There are numerous ways to play long oil, short Treasuries or for that matter any and all of your investment conclusions. We will be looking for ways to further our exposure in long energy for clients but at this point only hold longs in natural gas. We do feel that prices of Crude and the distillates are trending higher but we’re currently on the sidelines wanting to get long. Not the best place to be but I guess better than in the market wishing we were on the sidelines.

With prices probing the $80 level the path of least resistance is up. We prefer natural gas only because we feel we’re in the beginning stages of a move as opposed to oil which, though on a tear, is further along its move, again just our estimation.

The only notable action in softs was a reversal lower in cotton. We hinted at this last week and may look for short opportunities in the coming sessions, stay tuned. Agriculture was higher across the board from 1.5% to 3.5% depending on the commodity. We suggest waiting for a setback to be a buyer of wheat and corn.

New high for the equities today, we suggest lightening up on stocks. For those of you who cannot part with your individual holding perhaps a hedge with put options or selling calls? 30-yr bonds gained on 10-yr notes today; we’re looking to pick up 1 basis point in this spread in the December contract for clients.

Gold and silver were marginally higher in the face of a weakening dollar. We hold light longs in gold for clients and will be looking for an entry to be a buyer of March or May silver for clients.

December live cattle had their first close above 86.00 in 2 weeks. We like long exposure in this month as well as February.

Clients are down in their Euro-currency puts and bearish Canadian dollar plays but we will wait for a few more sessions before throwing in the towel.

Risk Disclosure: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options can be substantial. Past performance is no guarantee of future trading results.

Comments

[Nick14902:]

Are you wating for a pull back of around $75, before you see a full blow move upward?

Oct 19 06:00 PM

[picman:]

"and will be looking for an entry to be a buyer of March or May silver for clients."

That's funny. You continue to miss the boat on silver. When it was $15 I said its going to $20 and have stuck to my guns rather than wavering on a daily basis like some "experts" around here. A buy at $15 because SLV will hit $20 before the end of the year. That's a 25% gain inside of three months. I can't remember the last time any of the "experts" gave a three month winner like that. You know why? Because they change their minds every other day when the market moves. It's laughable. Folks... if you haven't already purchased SLV, do so quick so you can at least enjoy the second half ride to $20 and who knows, it may even go further.

Oct 19 07:35 PM

[picman:]

The only thing he's pulling back is his opinion .... on a daily basis


On Oct 19 06:00 PM Nick14902 wrote:

> Are you wating for a pull back of around $75, before you see a full
> blow move upward?

Oct 19 09:27 PM

[Empower Inv...:]

Man, that was harsh. Funny, but harsh. None of us have a crystal ball. All that we have is an educated guess. While I agree that some of the "experts" have changing opinions, they (or we if you read my Instablogs on Gold) are still human.


On Oct 19 09:27 PM picman wrote:

> The only thing he's pulling back is his opinion .... on a daily basis
>

Oct 20 12:37 PM

[jimbo's gra...:]

Yes, I understand that no one can guarantee any long term result but I'm not asking for that. All I want is one, just one of these so called experts to say, "although there are no guarantees, I feel strongly about investing in this stock over the next 6-12 months. All indicators show this stock should go up 10-20% in the next 6-12 months." That's all I want to see. No one does that. They make a prediction or observation with paragraphs of mumbo jumbo that convinces us they know what they're talking about. Then 2-3 days later the market shifts and they take the other side or the real keen ones take a position and slide in the old "but it could go the other way" nonsense. What good is that??? I say SLV is a great investment and I've said it since it was at $15 a share. I say its going to $20, plain and simple and I back my statement up by buying in myself. I haven't seen anyone else do the same and until they do, I simply cannot take them seriously. They are simply the weathermen of the stock world... they speak in generalities, give lots of possibilities that help no one and ultimately give little if any solid stock advice. "Today will be partly sunny with a few passing clouds and a chance of scattered rain throughout the day." ....
Thanks,,,, for nothing.


On Oct 20 12:37 PM Empower Investments wrote:

> Man, that was harsh. Funny, but harsh. None of us have a crystal
> ball. All that we have is an educated guess. While I agree that some
> of the "experts" have changing opinions, they (or we if you read
> my Instablogs on Gold) are still human.

Oct 20 01:07 PM

[picman:]

I FINALLY FOUND SOMEONE WITH THE BALLS TO COMMIT...
SILVER IS GOING UP, UP,UP....
LOVE THIS ARTICLE....

seekingalpha.com/artic...

Oct 20 11:47 PM

[jimbo's gra...:]

It's refreshing to see some of these writers put their cards on the table for a change. Just found another article where there's a real confidence in SLV over the next several months...

seekingalpha.com/artic...

SLV is a winner, plain and simple. I'll continue to ride it to $20 and may even stay aboard for a long ride upward. I've said it from my first post and I stand by it... Silver is a real winner!

Oct 22 08:43 AM