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Silicon Motion Technology Corp. (NASDAQ:SIMO)

Citi 2013 Global Technology Conference

September 3, 2013 11:15 am ET

Executives

Riyadh Lai - CFO

Analyst

Ryan Hay - Citigroup

Ryan Hay - Citigroup

Well. Good morning. Thank you all for attending today. I’m Ryan Hay, Citi’s Technology Sector Specialist. With me this morning, I have Riyadh Lai, the CFO of Silicon Motion. He is going to first go through quickly a presentation and just run through give you background on the company. And with that I’ll start off some questions and then open it up the floor and investors. Riyadh?

Riyadh Lai

Great. Thank you.

Ryan Hay - Citigroup

Sure.

Riyadh Lai

Thank you for the introduction. I’ll provide a quick snapshot of our company. Safe Harbor statement, which you guys are actually quite familiar with so I’ll just flip through that. We are a fabless semiconductor company with two primary product lines. We are in the business of providing controllers for NAND flash specifically controllers for SSDs, eMMCs, memory cards as well as USB flash drives.

Our second other major product line is our specialty RF ICs and in that product segment our primary products there are LTE transceivers for Samsung as well as mobile TV SoCs. We have a business that has done very well over the last three years. We grew our revenue 25% last year but over the last three years, we grew our revenue at a CAGR of 48% to $281 million of revenue in the last year. We have done very well over the last three years primarily for a few reasons. One of the key reason is the bundling of cards with smartphones.

Until recently most smartphones have been sold with bundled card and as the world’s leading vendor of controllers for memory cards, we have been an important beneficiary of the bundled card as well as the smartphone growth. The other reason for rapid growth over the last few years has been the provision of LTE transceivers to Samsung. We have been selling transceivers to Samsung for as a companionship for their LTE baseband for a number of years and we have grown rapidly with the rollout of - their rollout of their LTE smartphones using their own baseband and our companion transceiver.

We have a business that is also in transition. We have grown rapidly over the last three years but this year our revenue excluding LTE will probably be down 5% to 10%. We have a business that’s in transition in our two primary areas, transition in our core card, core NAND flash controller business. We are also going through transition in our – in LTE part of our business.

In our NAND flash controller business transition is taking place as our card and USB flash drive markets are increasing mature and decline while our new emerging eMMC business, eMMC SSD business are emerging (inaudible) by ramping rapidly. We - and so our controllers for cards and USB flash drive products are declining, our sales of our eMMC has been ramping very rapidly.

We are also expecting our SSD products, which are in commercial sampling right now to enter mass production in early next year and first quarter next year if our discussions that we have with our customers pan out according to plan. So, transition on our core NAND flash business as well as transition in the LTE part of business. Now on the LTE side of business, we are transitioning away from the older LTE products and we are awaiting the rollout of our new LTE advanced transceiver. So, let me go through that in a little bit more detail.

On our eMMC business we have done phenomenally well. We started rolling out our eMMC controllers to Samsung and Hynix in the first quarter of last year and the first year of business providing eMMC controllers, we have - the eMMC sales have already accounted for about 10% of our total consolidated revenue of $281 million, 10% of that revenue came from sale of our eMMC controllers to Samsung and Hynix. This part of the business continues to do very well. We are expecting our eMMC revenue to grow well in excess of 100% this year. We are going from 5% to 10% global market share last year to this year where we are going to be well in excess of 15% to 20% global market share for eMMC controllers.

We have been supplying our eMMC controllers to Samsung and Hynix and through them we are designed into the smartphones of 8 out of the top 10 smartphone OEMs, non-iOS smartphone OEMs. We are in global flagship products. We are also in low cost smartphones. We are in world markets. We are also in the China market and especially in the China market we have been very successful. We have almost 50% of the fast growing Chinese market.

We have gone from our eMMC 4.41 and recently rolled out our eMMC 4.5. And shortly after our rollout of our eMMC 4.5, we already designed into many high profile products. The recent Google Nexus 7 is using a Hynix part with our eMMC controllers. This is eMMC 4.5 part. So, we have been very successful with this and we expect our eMMC business to continue to grow rapidly this year and to next year rapid growth coming from continued growth of the market for eMMC. The eMMC is growing from all of the non-iOS smartphones, all of the non-iOS tablet to other smart devices such as smart TVs and smart set top boxes and other smart devices. This market is growing rapidly and our customers have been growing rapidly expanding their market share. And so therefore, we are expecting our overall eMMC sales to continue growing rapidly next year.

Furthermore we also picked up a third NAND flash partner. In addition to Samsung and Hynix, we now have a third NAND flash partner that we are working with. We are in product design. We are expecting this product to go into for the third flash partner to go into production in the first quarter next year, which should give us further growth in our eMMC - in the eMMC part of our business.

The other SSD and embedded product that we are aggressively investing behind is our SATA3 SSD controller. This controller recently went into commercial sampling with customers and we have received some very favorable reviews from third-party benchmarking including Tom’s Hardware IHS. We have this product is in commercial sampling with OEMs and the review so far from our customers have also been quite favorable. So, if everything if design wins that we are anticipating go into production, we are expecting our SSD controllers to begin contributing to our revenue in the first quarter of next year.

Turning to our LTE transceiver, we have a LTE transceiver part that is designed specific for Samsung. This is for pairing up with as a companionship to Samsung’s LTE baseband. We have been involved with Samsung’s LTE smartphone since the first - since their first product. We have gone through and are involved in many of their high profile smartphones including the Samsung Galaxy Nexus for Verizon two years ago, last year for Samsung’s Galaxy S3 for the Korean market.

But this year, we are going through a transition in LTE part of our business as Samsung’s requirement transitions away from regular LTE to LTE-Advanced as Samsung’s LTE-Advanced product baseband is not available yet while Samsung mobile is expecting demanding LTE-Advanced solutions most of what Samsung is rolling out this year will be using a Qualcomm part. But our and Samsung’s LTE solutions will be entering testing very shortly.

Samsung’s LTE baseband as well as our LTE-Advanced transceivers will be going into testing shortly and therefore we believe we are going to be well positioned for sales to Samsung mobile next year - early next year. So, in some we have a business that has done very well but is going through a transition but the pieces that we have so far are very favorable pieces of new businesses, new products that we have. We have also achieved a very important milestone for ourselves. In the past, we are mostly a card and USB flash drive controller business. As of the second quarter the important milestone that we have set for ourselves that we have already achieved is selling our embedded solution, where it’s not bigger than the external card controller.

In the second quarter this year, our SSD+embedded sales were already over 50% of our overall card - our overall NAND controller business. Our SSD+embedded revenue in the second quarter was larger than our card and USB flash drive controller sales. So, this is a very important milestone that we set for ourselves. This part of business will continue to grow rapidly.

So, we believe the investments that we have put in place will continue to allow us to have the foundation for further growth for stronger growth for the foreseeable future as more and more devices become smart, smart requiring embedded memory, smart requiring eMMC and these are the solutions that we are bringing to market through our flash partners that we have done very well and what we believe we’ll continue to do very well as that part of market continues to grow as we add more OEM customers to our eMMC base and add our SSD into this pool.

So, that sort of roundup my presentation and I’ll open up for Q&A.

Question-and-Answer Session

Ryan Hay - Citigroup

Thanks, Riyadh. Maybe I’ll start off. First you spend a lot of time obviously on the transition within the business. How should we think about looking forward this is going to impact and the overall revenue mix for the business between the mobile storage unit and the mobile communications unit? And also further you talked about the impact of the year-over-year revenue decline of 5% to 10% going forward beyond 2013, how should we think about 2014 within that sort of mix and then overall?

Riyadh Lai

Sure. In terms of mix our controller business is by far the larger part of our overall product. Last year, our total revenue of $281 million our mobile storage, where our - which is our controller NAND flash controller business that was 72% of our total revenue. Mobile communication that’s where our LTE and mobile TV SoC business resides, that's 24% of our total revenue. This year the Mobile Communication business will be -- will get smaller and smaller because our LTE business was in transition.

Ryan Hay – Citigroup

Right.

Riyadh Lai

The Mobile Storage part of our business are Card USB flash drive controller business that part of business is maturing and also in decline. But our SSD+embedded especially the rapid ramp of our eMMC as where we will carry the weigh for our overall business. So, in terms of mix we will shift away from communications to a mobile storage but further more to what I believe is probably more meaningful is the transitioning away of our business from the more core products the Card, USB Flash drive, Mobile TV, Embedded Graphics products, to the near products especially the SSD+embedded. Our new growth products which primarily are SSD+embedded as well as LTE Solutions are almost 50% of our revenue in the second quarter almost 50%.

But on the NAND flash controller part of our business, our SSD+embedded out of the total NAND flash controller sales already in excess of 50% of the business. So, this trend will continue. This trend will continue for few reasons. One, our eMMC business will continue to grow rapidly as the market continues to grow. We have two customers taking advantage of very high performance cost competitive solution, gaining market share Samsung, Hynix we are picking up a third eMMC customer, this will continue – will go into production in Q1.

Ryan Hay – Citigroup

Okay.

Riyadh Lai

We have our SSD our SATA3 SSD, if the design wins that we're anticipating comes into provision, we will have SSD revenue coming into our overall revenue stream in the first quarter next year. So, next year, where we should be well positioned for our Mobile Storage principally because of our eMMC as well as our SSD. On the Mobile Communication side of our business, this year our business hasn’t declined because of the transition away from the older LTE to standard LTE and we are awaiting the roll out of our LTE Advanced Solution for pairing up with Samsung on rollout of their new LTE Advanced baseband. So, the key question is how successful how quickly that roll out is and especially since Samsung internally is expecting the greater use of our – the internal solution.

Ryan Hay – Citigroup

Right.

Riyadh Lai

The internal solution being Samsung.

Ryan Hay – Citigroup

Right.

Riyadh Lai

Which is paired up with our transit.

Ryan Hay – Citigroup

Regarding the SSD controllers, you said that will begin shipment in the first quarter 2014?

Riyadh Lai

Yeah.

Ryan Hay – Citigroup

What do you expect or how much overall revenue contribution? Any ideas there you can help us?

Riyadh Lai

It’s little early for us to put a firm number or range of numbers in terms of our LTE also our SSD sales.

Ryan Hay – Citigroup

Yeah.

Riyadh Lai

We only recently went into commercial sampling of our SSD, this is the SATA3 SSD controller. This will be being sampled by both OEMs as well as module makers for both full size, client storage as well as for NAND cash and also for hybrid solutions. So, there is a lot of opportunities that we're targeting, the reviews that we've gone both from our potential customers.

Ryan Hay – Citigroup

Right.

Riyadh Lai

As well as from third-party such as Tom’s Hardware and (inaudible) have been very favorable. And so, if the design wins that we're anticipating to get rolled out and we're expecting revenue to start ramping in the first quarter. But as of stands because the design wins have not been secured it's a little premature for us to put out a number.

Ryan Hay – Citigroup

Yeah. How does this overall change within the business affect gross margins for both segments?

Riyadh Lai

Gross margins are actually going to be more favorable as we roll out more and more of these new growth products. In general, most of our new gross products are above corporate average gross margin and this is one of the trends that we're seeing this year. We’ve come up from a lower gross margin at the end of last year and our gross margin have been picking up and will continue to pick up through the course of this year as we roll out more and more of our new growth products as the more eMMC that we sell the more SSD that we sell the more LTE when it comes back, these were all help our overall gross margin profile.

Ryan Hay – Citigroup

Makes sense. From the ASP trend perspective, from the product lines, over the past year can you just give us a sense of what the trend is been?

Riyadh Lai

Sure.

Ryan Hay – Citigroup

For last year and then maybe going forward as well, how you see that playing out?

Riyadh Lai

Sure. In our controller part of our business, NAND flash controller part of our business we have ASPs that have been increasing for the last 14 consecutive quarter. ASP is increasing over a year-over-year basis for the last 14 consecutive quarters. We have mix coming to play, higher ASP parts such as eMMC but if you just strip out and look at it on apples-to-apples basis perspective even for our standalone in card, our card controller products. Our card controller sales ASPs have also been increasing for on a year-over-year basis for the last 14 consecutive years. The reason we've been able to benefit from increasing ASPs for such a long period of time has been NAND flash is just getting weaker and weaker. NAND flash is getting weaker from endurance, reliability perspective and manage just through the use of more sophisticated controllers and we're able to demonstrate value to our customers by bringing high value added solutions to them.

Ryan Hay – Citigroup

Right. Any questions in the audience?

Unidentified Analyst

The change in sales structure that Samsung is proposing with their Vertical NAND product and how might that change I guess the dynamics within the controller market would it be an opportunity for you to increase the value of your offering particularly since they seem to be aiming that for higher enterprise SSDs?

Riyadh Lai

That is very difficult question. We have been working with flash vendors. The flash vendors have been taking us through their tutorials, in-depth tutorials about their 3D technologies. Some point in time they’re going to have to bring us further up to speed where we can bring out our controllers to support their 3D NAND. But, 3D NAND is to go into commercial full commercial production, we’re some ways – we still have some ways to go before it’s fully available widely available in the commercial market. So, flash vendors, the 3D NAND for the flash vendors are taking a step back in terms of geometry node migration instead of moving forward as they’re migrating back to a older node, the node where the characteristics are better known.

But at the same time, they're building in up 3D. And so, there are a lot of new unknown characteristics are going to be that is going to be coming into play as a result of the 3D architecture. So, these characteristics as they're not known yet or not. It will take some time before high quality controllers can be developed for these specific parts. But that said, this is from our perspective whether it's further migration of the plainer NAND into finer geographies or going 3D, you will need more and more sophisticated controllers in, that’s what our business is all about. The flash vendors need us as a top partner for them for their own internal solution as well as for the merchant third-party solutions where they sell the wafers and they need merchant controller supplier. We’re working on both ends, this is similar to the current, older and future plainer NAND where we’re working with flash vendors as well as module makers.

Right now, most of our customers the vast majority of our customers for our controllers already OEM specifically the flash vendors our largest customer is Samsung and we also have Hynix and we also work with other flash vendors. So, it’s for them it’s important for them to work with us it’s also important for us to work with them and it’s a – so it’s a fairly symbiotic to have relationship that we have. And so the trend going to 3D NAND we believe will be fairly similar.

Unidentified Analyst

On your LTE transceiver business, it would used to be obviously a year ago a decent size business, it's a very small business as it stands today. If it comes back anywhere near where it used to be that would of course be nice to this financial model. Can you help us size that up those just probability. So, how long of a testing period do you expect for Samsung’s baseband, I'm assuming your transceiver your LTE transceiver is ready to go, it’s just Samsung doing a little bit more testing with the carriers. How long could that potentially go, how do you kind of size up the risk award, the probabilities of that business if being meaningful again potentially next year?

Riyadh Lai

It's a good question. We have a LTE business that for the last two years has been very difficult to forecast even for us internally but for the last two years until this year has done a phenomenal job for us. Last year we had well in excess of $40 million of revenue from our LTE transceiver business. We grew that 65% year last year and a year before we grew that also 65% but this year instead of $45 million of LTE revenue were down to around $11 million of revenue as a result of the tapering of the older programs principally relating to the Galaxy S3 and awaiting the rollout of the LTE Advanced Solution both Samsung’s LTE Advanced baseband as well as our new LTE Advanced transceiver.

We are also rolling out a new LTE-Advanced transceiver which will be paired up specifically for Samsung’s new LTE baseband. This will be going into testing shortly and depending on the results of the testing we should see more – we’ll demonstrate what sort of footing we have for our business next year. But there is a strong growth within Samsung to use - to want to use more of their own baseband which will mean more of our transceiver. But until that testing is done it’s a little premature for us to assign both publicly or numbers to what we’ll do next year.

So, internally, we are planning our business without the LTE transceiver revenue stream because there are too many unknowns. So, essentially we’re treating it as almost as a equity call option if you will.

Ryan Hay – Citigroup

Maybe going back to - I'm sorry, okay.

Unidentified Analyst

(inaudible) as an equity call option, for any reason if it didn’t ramp over the next year or so for reasons beyond your control even would you see it is potentially having some asset sale value, i.e. you can realize value either way if it works or if it doesn't you just sell it?

Riyadh Lai

Yeah absolutely. There is inherent value relating to the IP of that business, we can make use of it then perhaps say a third-party can make use of it. Right, we are still making investments into our LTE transceiver business, we have first class RFIC design expertise we have and that is the reason why Samsung had chosen us in the first place to be their partner for developing transceivers for their base band. So there is a lot of inherent value and we like to continue to see we can unlock that value internally, but if we cannot then it is a value to a third-party that’s something we can also explore.

Unidentified Analyst

May be go back to just NAND overall I'm looking at how NAND availability right now and then also could you maybe you give us a sense for the breakdown of your support for Samsung, Hynix, Toshiba, SanDisk?

Riyadh Lai

Overall NAND Flash has been fairly tight since last year it has been tight and continues to be tight, we are planning our business as if it will be tight for the rest of the year. So, if there is great availability of our flash that should be beneficial to our business, specifically the module maker part of business, but that said we have a business where we’ve been actively managing it where more and more our business comes from the OEMs versus the module makers. So benefit of that is we are less exposed to the volatility of NAND Flash supply and demand and dynamics, the rapid changing dynamics. Working with the OEMs especially the flash vendors they own the source of flash and so they dictate where they want to sell it, how they want to sell it so here working with them then, we have the better clarity the better visibility into where our controllers we’re going to be selling because that’s where they’re going to be telling us where they want to sell their flash and how they want to procure controllers from us so whether for cards, the Samsung cards are more recently the rapid ramp up of our controllers for Samsung and Hynix’s eMMC programs.

But we also sell our controllers to Micron for their Card USB Flash Drive business and also others. We’re actively trying to do more business with the OEMs not just Flash vendors but also Tier-one OEMs. We do a lot of business with Sony for example. We are focusing on OEMs where most of our, majority of our controllers of sales are now to the OEMs. But we still have a meaningful module maker part of business these module makers are work-friends due to us so we still have to take care of them, we have a business where it subject to flash demand volatility and this year the way we are managing is to plan as if tighten as we continue so if there is greater availability of flash available to the module makers and their, that could be upside to our business.

Unidentified Analyst

Okay. How is flash memory self that technology migrating? And what is your current share SoC and MLC and TLC?

Riyadh Lai

We, flash has been migrating very regularly every 9 months or so you have a new generation of flash every time you have a migration flashes gets weaker and weaker and then you also have the transition from SoC to MLC to TLC that migration is not a linear transition migration it’s also has to do with what customers want for embedded solutions let me move back to [Sicom] on the card part of our business the external storage part of business the migration was very rapid moving from MLC to TLC where majority of these external storage devices are now using TLC flash.

Unidentified Analyst

Sure.

Riyadh Lai

But then you had to roll back, roll back as more as these external sales became more mature start declining and you had a greater push into the embedded, embedded customers prefer higher quality more stable MLC flash versus the TLC flash. So there was a reversal away from TLC towards MLC.

Unidentified Analyst

Right.

Riyadh Lai

But now you are also beginning to as TLC becomes more mature, controller expertise remain in TLC become more robust you have the migration back to more use of TLC. So MLC for eMMC until recently most of the eMMC we’re using MLC flash, but now we have a customer one of the large NAND flash vendors coming to us, we’re in product development right now for a TLC based eMMC solution for roll off in the first quarter next year. You also now see TLC based SoCs for the PC market Samsung has done a phenomenal job rolling that out and so you are now beginning to see the transition away from MLC to TLC again for the embedded and SoC parts of the market.

Unidentified Analyst

Okay. Our inventory levels overall within flash.

Riyadh Lai

I am sorry.

Unidentified Analyst

It's inventory levels relatively historically.

Riyadh Lai

That is a very difficult part of the food chain to pin down.

Unidentified Analyst

Okay.

Riyadh Lai

Inventory levels, we are not involved in buying, selling flash and so we don’t have that good read in terms of that market other then what our customers tell us and so we really don’t have a good sense in terms of what they, how they end towards that’s, but generally Flash vendors don’t keep too much inventory flash.

Unidentified Analyst

Yeah. Any other questions? May be we’ll talk about the competitive landscape for a second just overall how do you think Silicon Motion differentiates the primary competitors Fison and SkyMedi and relative and then has that shifted has the landscape shift at all competitive of last year or so?

Riyadh Lai

On the competitive landscape, we are, we sort of map it up in from the product ends the different products that we’re involved in and the card part of our business card USB flash drive part of our business, we use to face a lot of our competition from Taiwanese and smaller Taiwanese controller makers, but recently as that part of business become mature and decline several of the smaller players that have exited and there has been lot of rumor about other smaller Taiwanese controller makers also existing the market.

So, the competitive intensity is coming down on that part of that market because the market the total time that shrinking you also have the issue of flash becoming weaker and weaker and not all the players are able to continue to just stay in the game or even for the older parts for card USB flash drive. Now moving to eMMC, eMMC part of our market we do not face the same competition at all, but we do not see any meaningful competition at all in the eMMC part of our business.

We the only other suppliers of eMMC controllers available to the customers, the flash vendors are the controllers that the flash vendors have developed themselves. So Samsung developing their own eMMC controllers, Toshiba, SanDisk and so forth developing their own eMMC controller for their own internal use.

But we don’t see the internal source of eMMC or their internal eMMC programs as competitive to ours. We act as a extension of the R&D arm we help them, we help the flash vendors extend their overall capabilities where they can free up their own resources to target more premium ends of the market or to shift their resources into other adjacent controller markets for example, where they can free up resources that they previously doing for mainstream eMMC and shifting that into resources that they can focus for PCI SSDs or enterprise related SSD solutions.

Unidentified Analyst

Got it.

Unidentified Analyst

But Silicon Motion ever considered doing flash trading business similar to Fison?

Riyadh Lai

Not really, I mean we are at IC design company that’s why we do well and we are business where we are good at staying to our nettings. We focus on what we do well and do that do those as parts of our business as well as we can and so that’s why we’ve been able to make the transition that we’ve originally forecasted instead of couple of years ago we saw, we had the expectation that sooner or later the NAND flash business relating to cards and USB flash drive will be increasing mature and will go into decline so for us instead of investing and going adjacent or non related part of the business are going to flash rating, we took a very conscious view as that what we need to do is to get invest even further into technology into R&D for embedded and SSD solutions and we believe that is a right strategy for us, because that’s what we are good at and our results have demonstrated that the decision we have taken is the right decision, because already in the second quarter our SSD plus embedded sales are larger than our card and USB business.

Ryan Hay – Citigroup

Okay. Any other questions? One we've been asking that for company is more regarding dividend, buyback preference. Can you give us a sense for your thoughts around payout going forward regarding dividend, potential per share buyback?

Riyadh Lai

Yeah that we have a business that generates a fair amount of cash flow every quarter, every year, we are capital light we don’t have any regular significant investments for our business. So, we actually try to figure out what is the best way to return capital to shareholders and one of the things that we keep in mind is we have a volatile business and one way to bring stability to our business especially as it relates to our shareholders is stability. How do we do that? And one of the ways that we are doing it is through a dividend program. We are not a big company we are a small semiconductor company but in order to provide the stability to our shareholders we’re paying dividend.

We are paying a dividend which has been designed to be payable throughout our business cycle through the ups and downs of our cycle so essentially we’re paying $0.15 and for the foreseeable future, you should expect us to be paying $0.15 a quarter. So, that provides us stability, we’re also returning capital to our shareholders opportunistically, whenever we feel our share price is undervalued and we have the visibility so if we have that then we will be in the market buying our shares. Early this year our Board had authorized us, given us authorization to for a 12 month buyback program.

We’ve been executing on this buyback program until recently where as a result of our second quarter preannouncement guided down, as well as revised our full year guidance down a bit. Our Board has accessed to hold back on our buyback until there is better clarity on our business, but we are returning our capital to both means of dividend and share buyback.

Ryan Hay – Citigroup

Okay. Alright, great, well thank you very much.

Riyadh Lai

It’s pleasure being here today at Citibank conference.

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