We think it's very important that financial advisors not rely on one source for intrinsic value estimates. After all, not all fair value estimates are created equal--some will be right and some will be wrong. However, when financial advisors can find a number of them pointing to the same conclusion, their conviction in an idea for their clients is substantially increased, especially if these opinions are independent ones. Let's take a look at National Oilwell Varco's (NOV) discounted cash-flow valuation in this article.
But first, a little background. Valuentum thinks a comprehensive analysis of a firm's discounted cash-flow valuation, relative valuation versus industry peers, as well as an assessment of technical and momentum indicators is the best way to identify the most attractive stocks at the best time to consider buying. This process culminates in what we call our Valuentum, which ranks stocks on a scale from 1 to 10, with 10 being the best. We like firms that have the highest scores in the center of the diagram below.
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If a company is undervalued both on a DCF and on a relative valuation basis, it scores high on our scale. National Oilwell Varco posts a VBI score of 6 on our scale, reflecting our 'fairly valued' DCF assessment of the firm, its neutral relative valuation versus peers, and bullish technicals. We compare National Oilwell Varco to peers Baker Hughes (BHI), Cameron International (CAM), and Halliburton (HAL). In the spirit of transparency, we show how our strategy has stacked up to that of our peers:
Our Report on National Oilwell Varco
• National Oilwell Varco earns a ValueCreation™ rating of EXCELLENT, the highest possible mark on our scale. The firm has been generating economic value for shareholders for the past few years, a track record we view very positively. Return on invested capital (excluding goodwill) has averaged 20.6% during the past three years.
• National Oilwell Varco is a worldwide provider of equipment and components used in oil and gas drilling and production operations, oilfield services, and supply chain integration services to the upstream oil and gas industry.
• National Oilwell Varco has an excellent combination of strong free cash flow generation and low financial leverage. We expect the firm's free cash flow margin to average about 8.4% in coming years. Total debt-to-EBITDA was 0.1 last year, while debt-to-book capitalization stood at 2.8%.
• Although we think there may be a better time to dabble in the firm's shares based on our DCF process, the firm's stock has outperformed the market benchmark during the past quarter, indicating increased investor interest in the company.
• The firm experienced a revenue CAGR of about 3% during the past 3 years. We expect its revenue growth to be better than its peer median during the next five years.
Economic Profit Analysis
The best measure of a firm's ability to create value for shareholders is expressed by comparing its return on invested capital (ROIC) with its weighted average cost of capital (GM:WACC). The gap or difference between ROIC and WACC is called the firm's economic profit spread. National Oilwell Varco's 3-year historical return on invested capital (without goodwill) is 20.6%, which is above the estimate of its cost of capital of 10.7%. As such, we assign the firm a ValueCreation™ rating of EXCELLENT. In the chart below, we show the probable path of ROIC in the years ahead based on the estimated volatility of key drivers behind the measure. The solid grey line reflects the most likely outcome, in our opinion, and represents the scenario that results in our fair value estimate.
Cash Flow Analysis
Firms that generate a free cash flow margin (free cash flow divided by total revenue) above 5% are usually considered cash cows. National Oilwell Varco's free cash flow margin has averaged about 12.2% during the past 3 years. As such, we think the firm's cash flow generation is relatively STRONG. The free cash flow measure shown above is derived by taking cash flow from operations less capital expenditures and differs from enterprise free cash flow (FCFF), which we use in deriving our fair value estimate for the company. For more information on the differences between these two measures, please visit our website at Valuentum.com. At National Oilwell Varco, cash flow from operations increased about 2% from levels registered two years ago, while capital expenditures expanded about 93% over the same time period.
Our discounted cash flow model indicates that National Oilwell Varco's shares are worth between $55-$101 each. Why such the large range? Click here. The margin of safety around our fair value estimate is driven by the firm's MEDIUM ValueRisk™ rating, which is derived from the historical volatility of key valuation drivers. The estimated fair value of $78 per share represents a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of about 16.6 times last year's earnings and an implied EV/EBITDA multiple of about 8.6 times last year's EBITDA. Our model reflects a compound annual revenue growth rate of 12.8% during the next five years, a pace that is higher than the firm's 3-year historical compound annual growth rate of 3%. Our model reflects a 5-year projected average operating margin of 16.8%, which is below National Oilwell Varco's trailing 3-year average. Beyond year 5, we assume free cash flow will grow at an annual rate of 2.5% for the next 15 years and 3% in perpetuity. For National Oilwell Varco, we use a 10.7% weighted average cost of capital to discount future free cash flows.
Margin of Safety Analysis
Our discounted cash flow process values each firm on the basis of the present value of all future free cash flows. Although we estimate the firm's fair value at about $78 per share, every company has a range of probable fair values that's created by the uncertainty of key valuation drivers (like future revenue or earnings, for example). After all, if the future was known with certainty, we wouldn't see much volatility in the markets as stocks would trade precisely at their known fair values. Our ValueRisk™ rating sets the margin of safety or the fair value range we assign to each stock. In the graph below, we show this probable range of fair values for National Oilwell Varco. We think the firm is attractive below $55 per share (the green line), but quite expensive above $101 per share (the red line). The prices that fall along the yellow line, which includes our fair value estimate, represent a reasonable valuation for the firm, in our opinion.
Future Path of Fair Value
We estimate National Oilwell Varco's fair value at this point in time to be about $78 per share. As time passes, however, companies generate cash flow and pay out cash to shareholders in the form of dividends. The chart below compares the firm's current share price with the path of National Oilwell Varco's expected equity value per share over the next three years, assuming our long-term projections prove accurate. The range between the resulting downside fair value and upside fair value in Year 3 represents our best estimate of the value of the firm's shares three years hence. This range of potential outcomes is also subject to change over time, should our views on the firm's future cash flow potential change. The expected fair value of $102 per share in Year 3 represents our existing fair value per share of $78 increased at an annual rate of the firm's cost of equity less its dividend yield. The upside and downside ranges are derived in the same way, but from the upper and lower bounds of our fair value estimate range.
Pro Forma Financial Statements
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