Activison: Call of Duty Projected to Do Big Business

November 10th marks the release of Activision's (ATVI) Call of Duty : Modern Warfare 2.

Activision, with its recent merger with Blizzard, holds the video game rights to Call of Duty, Guitar Hero, World of Warcraft, Starcraft, and Diablo. The company also produces video games based on movies under license.

Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2 is the latest chapter in the first person game franchise. There have been numerous games released since the initial Call of Duty game was put out in 2004. The games are available on numerous platforms.

The last Call of Duty game (Call of Duty World at War) was released close to one year ago. The game sold over eleven million copies. The newest game will likely surpass that. My estimate for Modern Warfare 2 would be 15 million copies.

The game is already on the Amazon (AMZN) bestsellers' list for several platforms. The XBOX 360 version of the game is currently number 5 and has been on the bestseller list for 145 days. The Playstation 3 version of the game comes in at number fourteen. The Prestige edition (includes real night vision goggles, art book, and a token to download the original Call of Duty) for XBOX 360 is currently number twenty one. This version of the game sells for $149.95 currently on Amazon. The Prestige Playstation 3 version of the game is at number thirty seven. The PC version of the game is number fifty five. The Hardened edition (includes art book and token to download the original Call of Duty) for XBOX 360 is number eighty. That version of the game sells for $79.99. Also on the bestseller list is Call of Duty: Modern Warfare for XBOX 360.

At a local Gamestop (GME) store, they have received over 250 preorders for the game. Gamers still have several weeks to preorder the game as well and I see that number jumping. In comparison Halo 3 had only seventy preorders at this particular Gamestop. Most Gamestops will be opening doors at midnight on November 9th to let gamers get to playing as soon as possible.

The game has sold over 2.2 million preorders. Activision has said this has been their highest preorder sales ever.

Activision recently released Guitar Hero 5 and Marvel Ulitmate Alliance 2.

The upcoming slate looks strong for Activision as well.

-DJ Hero and Band Hero both come out in time for the holidays and further expand the dominating music game genre that Activision is so strong in.
-Big League Sports is a new sports game exclusively for the Nintendo (NTDOY.PK) Wii.
-A new racing game called Blur.
-Interactive Tony Hawk game with motion controlled skateboard for the Nintendo Wii.

The biggest release next year will be Starcraft 2. The games is for PC and is the sequel to the popular Starcraft game. The game was amazingly successful in Asia where it is a part of the culture, providing reality television competitions. The game is already in the top 1000 on Amazon's video game list.

Activision Blizzard continues to be the leader in video games. The franchise releases widely popular games each year, especially in the current Christmas season. The brands included are Guitar Hero, Call of Duty, Starcraft, Diablo, Tony Hawk, Wolfenstein. Through licenses the company releases games of Spider Man, Transformers, Cabelas Hunting, Marvel Ultimate Alliance, X Men, Shrek, Madagascar, James Bond, and several others.

I currently hold shares of Activision in my Sogotrade account. The stock was at $12.50 Monday. When I wrote about the stock last year before Christmas the stock traded below $10. Once Mordern Warfare 2 is released the stock should run up nicely to $15. I think Activison could trade at $20 by 05/10.

Disclosure: Long ATVI

Comments

[Preston Coates:]

to comment on the preorders allot of them have been canceled by the pc users due to the release of info on no dedicated servers a patition has been constructed and over 157000 have signed. saying that they would buy the pc version so come the 10 there might not be as many sales in the pc version as previous cod games. but console should sell well.

Oct 25 10:28 PM

[StockMaster...:]

ATVI is a good investment under $10. This modern warfare 2 is going to sell like crazy. All the good games seem to be coming out of ATVI. There is a major rotation out of this sector so here is where you make money at a certain point. Like FSLR if that goes to $100ish time to get back in.

Whats bringing ATVI down?

SAN FRANCISCO, Nov 2 (Reuters) - A Chinese regulator has suspended approval for NetEase.com Inc (NTES.O) to operate Activision Blizzard's (ATVI.O) World of Warcraft online game, putting the future of the recently-launched and high-profile title in question in China.

And some sales weakness. The panic selling of March didn't bring this down much more than $9.50. Does this China issue warrant this selling? Sure, but when is this priced in? Maybe the panic levels of march? I think so, then upside eventually.

Nov 03 12:49 AM