Sirius Earnings Preview: The Worst Is Over 87 comments
-
Font Size:
-
Print
- TweetThis
By Brandon Matthews
Sirius XM Radio (SIRI) has announced that the company will report third quarter 2009 earnings on November 5, 2009, and of course Satwaves will cover the event live beginning at 6 am EST on that day. With Tuesday’s announcement, I will once again embark on my quarterly exercise in futility and post my own expectations of what we might expect to hear from the company. It should also be noted that I have been conservative in these estimates & calculations, and that the only numbers that truly matter are the ones that will be reported by the company. Specific patterns or trends are only just beginning to emerge since the merger of Sirius and XM Satellite Radio, making estimates difficult.
Perhaps that is why so few are willing to put their reputations at risk these days. Wall Street has shunned the company in recent months as many firms had dropped coverage earlier in the year, leaving these exercises to armchair analysts such as myself as we anxiously await their return. Let’s begin on the subscriber front. The weakness in the economy the past two quarters has resulted in two consecutive quarters of subscriber losses. I feel confident that the worst is behind Sirius XM at this point, and am projecting positive subscriber growth of 132,285 subscriber additions to be reported for the third quarter — based on self pay monthly churn of 1.9%.
- Q3 OEM Net Additions: 1,041,164
- Q3 Retail Net Additions 150,000
- Total Additions: 1,191,164
- Less Churn (1.9%): 1,058,879 = 132,285 net subscriber additions
Subscriber estimates are always the easy part. Earnings estimates are a completely different story as each quarter seems to bring a new round of debt refinancing and charges that make earnings estimates complicated. This was the case in every quarter that I can recall since the merger was approved over a year ago. Once again it looks as though the same pattern will hold true for Q3 2009, which may turn an exceptional quarter into a modest one.
Wall Street is looking for the company to report a loss of .02 per share, which typically does not factor in one time charges and is based on forecasted results of operations. In my estimation, without any one time charges, Sirius XM Radio would likely report a first time earnings profit of .01 per share — which would beat the street handily by a whopping .03 per share. Unfortunately, a 120 million dollar charge will be reported relating to the retirement of the final Liberty Capital (LCAPA) loan that was repaid in full during the third quarter, which equates to a .03 per share charge.
Although interest expenses going forward are now substantially reduced, other revenue streams such as retail, advertising or investment related revenue will have had to have outperformed in an exceptional way to make up for this one time charge. As a result and as the charts below demonstrate, I am conservatively calling for Sirius XM Radio to report earnings in-line with Wall Street expectations of a loss of .02 per share on revenue of $624,700,000 and an operating profit of $77,150,000. Click on images below for larger view.
Disclosure: Long SIRI
Related Articles
|
-
The Seeking Alpha 100
See allThe top 100 stock
market authors
selected for publication
Seeking Alpha 100 » -
Fastest Climbers
Authors with the largestSee all
increase in followers
in the last 7 days
Fastest Climbers » -
Top Commenters
Top commenters,See all
as ranked by their peers
Top Commenters » -
Top Instabloggers
The 100 most active
Instabloggers.-
1
David Fry
-
2
TraderMark
-
3
Don Dion
-
4
Cliff Wachtel
-
5
Mike Havrilla
Top Instabloggers » -
1
-
Top StockTalkers
TopSee all
StockTalkers.
Top StockTalkers »
This article has 87 comments:
But two questions remain for me unclear: (i) the overall impact of the royalty tax - is this going to bring some revenue?; (ii) the way the payment of the recently launched satellite is processed - is this payment distributed along long period of time or it is one time charge executed in the 3 qtr.?
Brandon, if possible, clarify me these two points, please.
You are very kind to siri bashers by only projecting 132,285 positive subscriber additions to be reported for the third quarter.
for mel to make a statement that a split is of the table at this time, is a good indication that he is confident that SIRI will be over a dollar to be in-compliance with NASDAQ that's on indication that subscriber growth will be much greater in my opinion
I am a fellow Siri Longer and hope they can beat Wall Street by at least $ .01. Even or a plus would be unexpected but certainly an event.
Siri-Doom your day trading days are over. The 1 to 10 split will take care of that and by the way a reverse split is not always a bad thing.
On Oct 21 07:48 AM R A F wrote:
> It is my belief that the markets will look beyond this 3rd Qtr. release
> toward the next 4th Qtr. release due in February, as much of the
> impact from significant new developments such as the Apple relationship,
> Skydock, etc. will not begin contributing to revenue until the holiday
> season of the next few months. For this reason - while 3rd Qtr. figures
> will certainly be closely scrutinized, I do not believe they will
> significantly alter the current trading patterns of SIRI - which
> are now dominantly strong and projecting further upside potential
> into 2010. As seen over the last few days - it is now "all systems
> go" for Sirius XM and SIRI: The Apple numbers were a "blowout" and
> the tremendous demand for iPhones and iPod Touch devices clearly
> benefits Sirius by greatly expanding the potential for SkyDock to
> work "hand in hand" with this new market going forward. We are now
> seeing better marketing geared to the holiday season (online and
> print ads) and expanded relationships within the auto industry, as
> well (pre-owned autos, etc). The potential for Sirius XM, given the
> need to replace and upgrade the aging U.S. fleet in coming years,
> coupled with the potential from new wireless and internet devices
> (worldwide) is expanding significantly and the company now appears
> to be on the threshold of really capitalizing on all this into the
> future. From this perspective - the 3rd Qtr. release is important
> but far from the end of the game - this is really the early stages
> of a resurgent company.
Siri-Doom, just in case people dont know, is a copy and paste basher, who spends around 2 hours a day doing nothing but bashing this company, for god knows what reason. He lives in his mothers basement, and probably drools a lot.
I agree when WS returns to normal time (When I have no idea) that forward projections and thinking may become the trend. But for now you are way off.
Although most times I do give you a thumbs up but (not an insult) who are all these people who continue to give you a thumbs up? Are they just seeing your name or are they actually reading your comment.
You are way off on your forward thinking mentality in today's market. But as a general rule of thumb in text books you are right on. Unfortunately the text books were burned about a year ago.
On Oct 21 07:48 AM R A F wrote:
> It is my belief that the markets will look beyond this 3rd Qtr. release
> toward the next 4th Qtr. release due in February, as much of the
> impact from significant new developments such as the Apple relationship,
> Skydock, etc. will not begin contributing to revenue until the holiday
> season of the next few months. For this reason - while 3rd Qtr. figures
> will certainly be closely scrutinized, I do not believe they will
> significantly alter the current trading patterns of SIRI - which
> are now dominantly strong and projecting further upside potential
> into 2010. As seen over the last few days - it is now "all systems
> go" for Sirius XM and SIRI: The Apple numbers were a "blowout" and
> the tremendous demand for iPhones and iPod Touch devices clearly
> benefits Sirius by greatly expanding the potential for SkyDock to
> work "hand in hand" with this new market going forward. We are now
> seeing better marketing geared to the holiday season (online and
> print ads) and expanded relationships within the auto industry, as
> well (pre-owned autos, etc). The potential for Sirius XM, given the
> need to replace and upgrade the aging U.S. fleet in coming years,
> coupled with the potential from new wireless and internet devices
> (worldwide) is expanding significantly and the company now appears
> to be on the threshold of really capitalizing on all this into the
> future. From this perspective - the 3rd Qtr. release is important
> but far from the end of the game - this is really the early stages
> of a resurgent company.
On Oct 21 08:28 AM Sapp wrote:
> I believe siri has outlasted the most outrageous bashing the past
> years and has made the shorts a fortune , but has prevailed by being
> able to survive. We will see growth in the 2010 year as way of profit.
> People spend money on what makes them happy even if they do not have
> it, and listening to quality music by siri is a way. The car manufacturers
> would not install if they did not believe this would be the future,
> I just wished siri had a way to incorporate a GPS with the radio
> and skydock. siri long
On Oct 21 08:25 AM Pell wrote:
> RAF please don't take this personally but I have to recant my previous
> statement of enjoying reading your posts. "Looking forward" in todays
> Wall Street is not in the vocabulary. It is more of what have you
> done for me lately. For whatever your motives are ( I have no idea)
> but you continue to push 4Q. Who cares about 4Q in todays world when
> 3Q is going to be the issue.
>
> I agree when WS returns to normal time (When I have no idea) that
> forward projections and thinking may become the trend. But for now
> you are way off.
>
> Although most times I do give you a thumbs up but (not an insult)
> who are all these people who continue to give you a thumbs up? Are
> they just seeing your name or are they actually reading your comment.
>
>
> You are way off on your forward thinking mentality in today's market.
> But as a general rule of thumb in text books you are right on. Unfortunately
> the text books were burned about a year ago.
>
> On Oct 21 07:48 AM R A F wrote:
On Oct 21 07:48 AM R A F wrote:
> It is my belief that the markets will look beyond this 3rd Qtr. release
> toward the next 4th Qtr. release due in February, as much of the
> impact from significant new developments such as the Apple relationship,
> Skydock, etc. will not begin contributing to revenue until the holiday
> season of the next few months. For this reason - while 3rd Qtr. figures
> will certainly be closely scrutinized, I do not believe they will
> significantly alter the current trading patterns of SIRI - which
> are now dominantly strong and projecting further upside potential
> into 2010. As seen over the last few days - it is now "all systems
> go" for Sirius XM and SIRI: The Apple numbers were a "blowout" and
> the tremendous demand for iPhones and iPod Touch devices clearly
> benefits Sirius by greatly expanding the potential for SkyDock to
> work "hand in hand" with this new market going forward. We are now
> seeing better marketing geared to the holiday season (online and
> print ads) and expanded relationships within the auto industry, as
> well (pre-owned autos, etc). The potential for Sirius XM, given the
> need to replace and upgrade the aging U.S. fleet in coming years,
> coupled with the potential from new wireless and internet devices
> (worldwide) is expanding significantly and the company now appears
> to be on the threshold of really capitalizing on all this into the
> future. From this perspective - the 3rd Qtr. release is important
> but far from the end of the game - this is really the early stages
> of a resurgent company.
On Oct 21 08:45 AM R A F wrote:
> Pell - Let's see how the markets actually trade through all this.
> It is my opinion that SIRI will remain resilient and buoyant - tending
> to attract support on any near term pullbacks and then recover in
> coming weeks to trade to new highs. In this sense - markets for SIRI
> are now looking forward - toward a much expanded universe of potential
> due to the developments I have noted in comments above - as opposed
> to looking in "the rear view mirror", which the company is now leaving
> behind.
>
> On Oct 21 08:25 AM Pell wrote:
So yes...Apple numbers are a blowout...they launched a new IMAC!...That has nothing to do with SIRIUS XM!!!
This company has to get people to WANT the content!!! Apple can sell 500 million ipod touch devices....or none...if people want the content of SIRIUS XM and willing to pay for it , they will subscribe! if the demand and the willingness to pay for the content isnt there...Apple can sell 2 billion ipod touches....it doesnt help SIRIUS XM
The markets will be the ultimate arbiter of all this - let's see how they continue to trade through the entire time span I am referring to, above.
On Oct 21 09:24 AM Pell wrote:
> Correct and looking forward would be before the 3Q results. Then
> you can look at 4Q predictions. Why do you continue to skip a quarter?
>
On Oct 21 09:42 AM R A F wrote:
> Pell - I am not skipping a quarter. I actually believe the 3rd quarter
> figures and guidance may be BETTER than currently expected - but
> I also believe that markets are now looking forward to 4th quarter
> results that will contain more revenue information associated with
> developments now coming on line. To the extent that 3rd Qtr. data
> contains "one time charges and writeoffs" associated with past events,
> this is "looking in the rear view mirror" and sentiment pertaining
> to SIRI is now focused on future potential. Notwithstanding these
> one time charges, I believe the 3rd Qtr. results will still be favorable
> and markets will immediately begin trading toward expectations of
> continuing improvement into 2010.
>
> The markets will be the ultimate arbiter of all this - let's see
> how they continue to trade through the entire time span I am referring
> to, above.
On Oct 21 08:12 AM relmar2003 wrote:
> Subscriber figures are a bit low. I would be a LITTLE surprised if
> they arent a tad higher. As Malone has stated, SiriusXM will likely
> have to grow away its debt, and the streets focus on growth, I think
> the Stock price will react very well to a return to positive subs.
> Especially with all the changes this company has faced, as well in
> such terrible economic times.
> Siri-Doom, just in case people dont know, is a copy and paste basher,
> who spends around 2 hours a day doing nothing but bashing this company,
> for god knows what reason. He lives in his mothers basement, and
> probably drools a lot.
I think no matter what, wall street is always disappointed with this company no matter how many subs the company can retain. It just hasn't caught onto the bashers yet that this company is here to stay. Wall Street does recognize the synergy in cost cutting and I think that by no surprise Wall Street will applaud this company for it's cost cutting towards reducing debt, and following guidance for EBITDA. Wall street is however being a little to harsh on this company for it's debt load, which if you compare it to most other companies, siri is paying an exorbitant amount of debt in such a short period of time. Just 2 years ago both sirius and xm combined owed over 11billion in debt, I think it's amazing how as a synergy and in these difficult times this company can restructure it's debt load, pay less in intrest, and owe almost 1/2 less than it did 2 years ago.
The only sign of relief that I know of is that the SEC is making attempts to get rid of naked short interests and that they are being investigated. It gives this stock a little more breathing room even if the CC isn't going to be as positive as expected. If you look at the daily volume more shares are purchased for long term. I think this stock will hold at a strong and steady .72 after the CC. Then rise on AVG one penny a day until mid January.
Now if siri does show good financial stability this quarter the only thing that would benefit this company to sky rocket in share price would be for siri to buy back some outstanding shares. Especially since this is money that was in the beginning loaned from share holders.
I believe the bulls are out, and wall street is finally going to take notice at how aggressive siri management is. This is going to be the stock for 2010 and 2011 and worth $4.50 and no R/S by 2012.
While the daytraders are in action.
A 5 million share sell out in 2 minutes! Hmmm. New twist in the game... Who said what??? Where's it going now.....
PEACE
Or are they all daytraders?
Sorry to everyone for being the voice of reason unless again you are all looking for quick buck daily (Not that there is anything wronmg with that). But don't state you are a SIRI Long and you are not. Anybody can see the daytraders are killing this stock.
This is the real problem, not the RS, neither the +0.01 or -0.2 cent per share earning for the 3th qtr. It is possible that some idiot have sold at this low price but I don't think so because yesterday the share price before closing was almost 0.64 and was changed in the last minute to 0.6306 by one sale of 5200 shares.
Now imagine they decide to do the same manipulation at a price of 0.58, 0.56 and, etc.
Where is the SEC to discover who are the seller and the buyer or you are going to tell me that there are idiots that like to sell almost 4 % lower.
On Oct 21 11:22 AM Pell wrote:
> Please Brandon expand on your thoughts for the R/S. It seems so many
> people are blind to the importance of this action to us SIRIXM Longers!
>
>
> Or are they all daytraders?
>
> Sorry to everyone for being the voice of reason unless again you
> are all looking for quick buck daily (Not that there is anything
> wronmg with that). But don't state you are a SIRI Long and you are
> not. Anybody can see the daytraders are killing this stock.
You are putting too much faith into this RS idea...
I can't argue if after 3rd or after 4th is better- because never is best!
Mel doesn't want to do it- he said so in the last CC. The only truly beneficial way to get the share price up to $10.00+ would be to buy back shares and that won't happen until a few Qtrs of profitability pass. And YES- they could buy back small amounts NOW- there is revenue coming in to the tune of about $180-200 million a month. They don't have to pay off debt first- like before- they can re-fi and push it out as they have in the past.
I've played splits and Rev-splits a few dozen times and I can tell you- if RS occurs with SIRI before mid 2010 and profits- I will turn every one of my 234,000 shares into Shorts shares in short order!
Let just ride the modestly good news this 3rd Qtr and maybe profitability for 4th Qtr and a Yr end beat on EBITDA through Feb. By then- proof and returned growth will do all that needs be done.
Green trades-PEACE
Joro made a great point, where is the SEC.
RAF sometimes you are entirely too literal.
If I was literal with you I would say large institutions with the capability to invest such large amount of sales and react that quick is silly. Or is that like saying they are DAYTRADING? Obviously no real institutional money is invested in Sirius. And yes I would love to see this type of trading on a $10 stock, c'mon that will not happen RAF and you know it.
Why can't anybody see the obvious?
On Oct 21 11:41 AM R A F wrote:
> Pell - Manipulation by major institutions capable of high speed computer
> trading is the factor holding this stock within fractions of a cent
> for 90% of most trading days - not individual day traders, as you
> suggest. Only major institutions have this capability and this will
> not change - reverse split or no reverse split. This is NOT a "day
> traders stock" as you suggest, because the normal ranges from lows
> to highs are too tight for normal day traders to accurately move
> in and out for a profit. Individuals without "Flash Trading" and
> high speed computer capabilities simply cannot trade that way. So
> please - recognize that until manipulation is really curtailed by
> enforced regulation, this type of trading should be anticipated in
> SIRI - reverse split or no reverse split. Reverse split - pro or
> con - has absolutely nothing to do with this pattern of activity.
> The only valid argument for the timing of a possible reverse split
> in the future should be.... when can this be done out of strength,
> and to the best advantage of the company and its investors.
> On Oct 21 11:22 AM Pell wrote:
On Oct 21 12:01 PM 1more4me wrote:
> Pell,
> You are putting too much faith into this RS idea...
> I can't argue if after 3rd or after 4th is better- because never
> is best!
> Mel doesn't want to do it- he said so in the last CC. The only truly
> beneficial way to get the share price up to $10.00+ would be to buy
> back shares and that won't happen until a few Qtrs of profitability
> pass. And YES- they could buy back small amounts NOW- there is revenue
> coming in to the tune of about $180-200 million a month. They don't
> have to pay off debt first- like before- they can re-fi and push
> it out as they have in the past.
>
> I've played splits and Rev-splits a few dozen times and I can tell
> you- if RS occurs with SIRI before mid 2010 and profits- I will turn
> every one of my 234,000 shares into Shorts shares in short order!
>
> Let just ride the modestly good news this 3rd Qtr and maybe profitability
> for 4th Qtr and a Yr end beat on EBITDA through Feb. By then- proof
> and returned growth will do all that needs be done.
>
> Green trades-PEACE
I don't charge for my advice.
Mr. Stupid
On Oct 21 08:12 AM relmar2003 wrote:
> Subscriber figures are a bit low. I would be a LITTLE surprised if
> they arent a tad higher. As Malone has stated, SiriusXM will likely
> have to grow away its debt, and the streets focus on growth, I think
> the Stock price will react very well to a return to positive subs.
> Especially with all the changes this company has faced, as well in
> such terrible economic times.
> Siri-Doom, just in case people dont know, is a copy and paste basher,
> who spends around 2 hours a day doing nothing but bashing this company,
> for god knows what reason. He lives in his mothers basement, and
> probably drools a lot.
What your take on a R/S? Good or Bad? As well as the munipulation of this stock price?
On Oct 21 01:30 PM Jeffrey Mettel wrote:
> In reading this article and some of the posts afterwards, I think
> two things should be pointed out. In Sirius' release on repaying
> the debt, they mention that they repayment was without penalty. So
> I don't think there will be a charge this quarter. Secondly, Sirius
> has already written off a large chunk of its goodwill. That combined
> with its large historical loses provide billions of dollars of NOLs
> that can be utilized to offset taxes over the next several years.
The 250 loan was discounted to 123. The company wrote the 122 discount down last quarter. This quarter they repaid 250, and now have to re-account for the difference.
As a longer I understand this and I also know the perfect way to reduce shares is to buy back. But SIRIXM will not have the discretionary cash flow to do that for some time.
Doesn't anybody get that? We longers are currently holding a penny stock and we need that to change in a big way! Not $ .25 or $ .50 or even $.75. we need a higher value. And with the kind of traders out there today Siriusstock will be hard preseed to maitain over $1 for 30 consecutive days.
On Oct 21 02:17 PM PROTECT AND SERVE 0310 wrote:
> sucks!!!! down down and down
Yeah- innovation and new methods are a wonderful thing but R/S is still used to create the illusion of value where there is little or none and ultimately used (most of the time) to stave of death just a while longer.
(And BTW - I shorted AIG, but only once, as a term trade for about 8% from $48 to $42 at the end of August.- A lucky few have recently- but I wouldn't play it long with Your money at any price!!)
Don't know much about this brand new world of investing.... but I've been nailing better that 200% a year gains for the last 4 in a row- If I'm there- Cool- If I ain't- I don't want to learn about it...
Green Trades!!! PEACE
On Oct 21 12:45 PM Pell wrote:
Sorry 1more4me but even a lousy situation like AIG turned a r/s into huge gains. Trading at over $40 now. Hmmmmm. These are the times for the R/S. Remember old manuevers are out dated and this is a brand new world in investing.
Why can daytraders not play with a high dollar stock?
Most of the traders I know- particularly the couple that actually day trade and not term/trend trade do most of their trades in high Volume stocks like MSFT, AAPL, BOA, C, YHOO, ---Price has nothing to do with why they trade them?
Explain why after your R/S it will no longer get daytraded or manipulated...Please?
Thanks---PEACE
Secondly you must have some wealthy friends! Or they are just happy to risk a lot to make a little (Dollar Wise). Lets do some math.
Lets call it 5M shares, okay. 5M shares of Apple is $1MM (high buy in, must have some serious loose cash) Now if it goes up $10 (5% not bad for a day) they make $50M but 5% the other way the loose $50M. Risky day trade more long term. Bank of America and the other are much lower priced stocks so for profit sake lets do this.
10M share of BOA Cost $170M 5% change in price gain $8,500.00 or lose $8,500.00 hmmmm?
Microsoft 10MM share cost $260M 5% change $13M.
Yahoo practically same as BOA.
I'd say you have some really wealthy friends who can afford to risk that kind of money daily. And if so great.
But how many of the wealthy of the world have time to play daytrader. C'mon, really. Lets be more honest on this site. okay. People with that kind of scratch invest for the long haul unless there is a tip. And most again certainly don't have time to do it themselves so we aren't even considering commision. But at least those stocks grab the attention of brokers who need to be efficient with their research time to the people who apy them.
On Oct 21 02:50 PM 1more4me wrote:
> Pell, Question::
> Why can daytraders not play with a high dollar stock?
>
> Most of the traders I know- particularly the couple that actually
> day trade and not term/trend trade do most of their trades in high
> Volume stocks like MSFT, AAPL, BOA, C, YHOO, ---Price has nothing
> to do with why they trade them?
> Explain why after your R/S it will no longer get daytraded or manipulated...Please?
>
>
> Thanks---PEACE
I think they are thought provoking but may not be popular. They are however factual.
Remember I am Siri Long and want us all to prosper.
Is everybody else really in it for the long haul?
You probably do not recall, but, Dim Crammer was pushing for Mel to merge with XM. It was almost a daily love fest for Sirius until the FCC bogged it down and made his pick look bad. You need to remember this stock got hit hard by the governments inaction. If the merger would have been passed in an appropriate amount of time they would have beat the economic downturn and been able to refinance well before the banking failure. Regardless of all these facts we, the SiriusXM investors, need to come to terms with the fact that this companies stock is on the hit list and may not make it through the gauntlet. We need to decide to stick it out and go down with the ship or ride it in to the sunset. I for one am riding it all the way. My wife gave me permission to.
On Oct 21 04:19 PM SIRI-Doom wrote:
> It is all in siding. Cramer is a Goldman Sachs boy. The timing of
> this headline indicates to me that they have more pumping and dumping
> planned before the rev-split.
>
> I knew after the merger Mel was going to regret messing with Jim
> Crammer on Air. You do NOT go on national news selling your stock
> to the largest TV stock gooroo and then cross everyone with a foul
> merger "Quick and Dirty" financing deal.
>
> When you cross big media, you get endless bad press.
>
> The Worst-Run Companies of 2009
> thestreet.com
> Sirisu and XM date with destiny will be in bankruptcy court.
>
> www.thestreet.com/stor...
>
> Sirisu and XM -- is a classic case of a great product (satellite
> radio) coupled with a bad business model. The company is burdened
> with more than $3 billion in long-term debt and $4.5 billion of intangibles
> and goodwill. Management relied heavily on the automobile industry
> to spur sales, and we know how successful that has been.
>
> Sirisu and XM date with destiny will be in bankruptcy court.
> www.thestreet.com/stor...
On Oct 21 04:30 PM SIRI-Doom wrote:
> hehehe hehe hhehheh lol
> Pell, anything and everything you past negative about SIRI will get
> a thumbs down. You are making comments in the land of SIRI OOZ...
>
>
> If you keep posting negative, they will call you a basher. Truth
> is not the issue in OOz. Down is up... hehehehehe
Cramer needs to live in a dumpy motel with that balloon guy.
Do patent rights run out with BK?
How much do you think we can get for the doggie logo of xm"s?
My wife said I could hace it and that could put it over the mantle with my deer head and neon miller lite sign
on a regular basis. There is some nefarious force keeping the stock
from going up. I know we can speculate about day traders and shorters. But my paranoia tells me some thing else is at play.
Looking at the figures there is light at the end of the tunnel unless
there is a behind the scene market play.
The figures- estimate 10 mil cars sold in 2010.
2010 estimate 1,000,000 stay as paying subs.
2010 estimate 750,000 churn
2010 estimate 250,000 retail added
For speculation, say 500,000-700,000 new subs inn 2010
At average $12 / month is about $600 mil- $750 mil rev growth
for 2010.
New rev. against operating exp, talent fees, salary/ bonuses, debt
payments and charge-offs and there should be some profit.
The question is about how management handles this. I still
think there is other behind the scenes plays going on. The prospects for year after year growth is good. And yet someone is keeping the p/s down. I thinks it's to force at some time a r/s in
order to make new shares available that they will sell at the new
higher s/p and leverage SIRI back into debt. That's just my thoughts
that mangement is not on the up and up.
Otherwise, SIRI is a good play for future growth but the market
isn't buying. There has to be a reason.
Also, dayworker, do not forgot to take into account the revenue generated from advertising sales. This is a huge piece of the pie.
On Oct 21 04:54 PM SIRI-Doom wrote:
> I do remember. I also remember Jim Cramer in the news the day after
> the merger.
>
> Cramer was hiding in a hotel and had to pay an army of security to
> protect him. He was getting death threats. One nut ran cramers car
> off the road. Cramer had to send his family out of state. His life
> was miserable for more than 6 months...
>
> All this was because Cramer was big on SIRI and Mel screwed the merger
> financing. SIRI is NEVER going to get any good press out of Cramer
> or the Street.
>
> Cramer has a grudge, hate relationship with Mel. Cramer latter admitted
> he did not believe Mel’s story on the quick and dirty financing.
> He said it was more dirty planed than quick...
>
> Remember, I was long in SIRI allot longer than most here. I do remember...
>
Long SiriusXM
SiriXM needs to attract some of that investment money. They are not an international product and the shares are trading too low for major investors to waste valuable talent researching penny stocks.
Again I am SIRI Long and don't understand why speaking the truth and obvious need for a r/s to help future growth of this stock is necessary keeps getting me a "thumbs down"?
It should be done after the first sign of good news which should be 3Q while the international money is hot!
Brandon, Jeff or anybody with creditability on this site please address this. I need to hear professional feedback rather than daytraders hidden agendas.
That is the un-dumbest thing I have ever seen you right. I agree!
On Oct 22 12:23 AM SIRI-Doom wrote:
> Oh, personally, I will NEVER buy ANYTHING owned by Government. <br/>
>
> I will not buy GM if government owns one cent of stock. I removed
> my money from banks with TARP money. I will stop buying any Newspaper
> or media that gets government assistance. I will not buy Government
> DeathCare or pay any unconstitutional penalty fee for not buying.
>
>
> If the US Governments socializes everything, I have a plan to move
> out...
On Oct 22 12:23 AM SIRI-Doom wrote:
> Oh, personally, I will NEVER buy ANYTHING owned by Government. <br/>
>
> I will not buy GM if government owns one cent of stock. I removed
> my money from banks with TARP money. I will stop buying any Newspaper
> or media that gets government assistance. I will not buy Government
> DeathCare or pay any unconstitutional penalty fee for not buying.
>
>
> If the US Governments socializes everything, I have a plan to move
> out...
In the long run we all win. The only long loosers will be those with open sells on options. And I am thinking some out there took that out until January 2010 when Siri hit its high in August.
Too much dishonesty here.
On Oct 22 08:57 AM R A F wrote:
> You don't make major long term decisions just because "international
> money is hot". History has shown that companies undergoing reverse
> splits do best in the aftermarket if these splits are done on strength
> - not uncertainty. Sirius XM's fortunes are now improving across
> the board and it will take a bit more time for this to be fully realized
> by the markets. For these reasons, it would be premature to enact
> a reverse split shortly after the 3rd Qtr. as the company certainly
> has much more time to consider this move. There is a major difference
> enacting a reverse split when the stock is in the .60's to .70's
> versus taking such action when the stock is over 1.00 - as is very
> plausible within the next six months.
On Oct 22 12:23 AM SIRI-Doom wrote:
> Oh, personally, I will NEVER buy ANYTHING owned by Government. <br/>
>
> I will not buy GM if government owns one cent of stock. I removed
> my money from banks with TARP money. I will stop buying any Newspaper
> or media that gets government assistance. I will not buy Government
> DeathCare or pay any unconstitutional penalty fee for not buying.
>
>
> If the US Governments socializes everything, I have a plan to move
> out...
On Oct 22 12:06 AM SIRI-Doom wrote:
> I am with you on "Buy American". But, it is hard to understand just
> how dependent we are on imports. Everything from GM car engine to
> light bulbs are now imported. Add inflation to outrageous import
> prices and you are risking a full blown meltdown.
>
> Forget taxes because you can not get money out of an empty bank account.
> I am seeing a very bad possible future.
>
> WE, the US is about to re-learn self dependence. We will bring back
> US manufacturing and restore American industry. But, first we are
> going to get royally screwed by the UN just like they have done to
> all the 3rd world countries. America has forgotten. The new generation
> does not listen. It will all be learned again, the hard way...<br/>
On Oct 22 12:23 AM SIRI-Doom wrote:
> Oh, personally, I will NEVER buy ANYTHING owned by Government. <br/>
>
> I will not buy GM if government owns one cent of stock. I removed
> my money from banks with TARP money. I will stop buying any Newspaper
> or media that gets government assistance. I will not buy Government
> DeathCare or pay any unconstitutional penalty fee for not buying.
>
>
> If the US Governments socializes everything, I have a plan to move
> out...
The younger generations are getting their media from the Internet and their iPhone; even CD's are falling by the wayside.
To invest in satellite radio is a big risk; it will either be worth it for people to put their disposable income into or not.
My guess would be that satellite radio will go the way of the 8-Track, especially since content is being streamed to smart phones that plug into an accessory jack of the car.
I stick to the belief a rev-split will happen. I don't see any way out of it...
On Oct 22 09:00 PM relmar2003 wrote:
> I head the conference call. Yes the other author, steve garcia was
> correct. Mel said NO PLANS FOR A R/S and even chuckled at the thought.
> Like ya, right. Another reference to the "unsophisticated investor"
> angle.
I give up trying to predict Karmazin amd SIRI. It's been said before, the stock is not normal and can't be predicted normally.
In my layman's judgment I'd say reverse now, and don't expect too much of a dip.
figure will not mean much, given that Sirius has a policy
this quarter, that between September and November, if
you purchase a Sirius Radio and Subscription, if you do
not like it, you can get a full refund within 3 months...So,
if somebody purchases a radio and subscription in the
month of November, he will have till January, or February
to return it for a full refund. Assuming Sirius does not extend
this promotional giveaway past November, how Sirius is
actually doing will be answered in next year
might cancel their subscription and return their radios, asking for
a full refund. In the interim, it might be wise for Sirius not to spend
all that cash it is collecting in the form of revenues.
Trade Time: 12:40pm ET
Order Book
Bid Price Size
0.57 300
0.57 700
0.56 900
I don't care much about the next several years.
The sky is falling today...
Flash trading of SIRI has greatly reduced. This seems to happen when the rest of the market slides. Sarcastically, I say Goldman Sachs can only pump so many stocks at one time.
Lower volume could be the Raj arrest closing that fund that was shorting. This could have all the funds laying low. How long will it last?
I recently predicted 58 cents. However, I see SIRI continuing to slide in line with and depending on the DOW. SIRI is currently trading normal, like a stock with a challenge. Manipulation is greatly reduced.
Hundreds of organizers descended to picket the offices of Goldman Sachs Inc. and Wells Fargo & Co.
online.wsj.com/article...
Reuters
Over 250 protesters march. The group is demanding that "banks end their over-reliance on greed and profits and commit to using their taxpayer bailouts and backstops to help America's economy recover,".
THIS IS GREAT NEWS! A revolution has started. People are awake. The SEC does nothing. The US treasury was handed to the FED last year in the bush bailout bill. The FED is the head of the private banking cartel. The FED uses Goldman Sachs to manipulates the economy up and down so fat cats can pick our pockets.
Public awareness and outrage can make a change. SIRI and all stocks may have better trading future for real investors.
Roll your dice and sell tomorrow at the earliest. The shiot will hit the fan real soon and I don't want anyone to lose their Christmas money.
Mr. Stupid
Roll your dice and sell tomorrow at the earliest. The shiot will hit the fan real soon and I don't want anyone to lose their Christmas money.
Mr. Stupid
I said the DOW 10K was a suckers rally. I expect more sucking as the FED pumps the economy. The US now has 112 percent more money printed and put in circulating than was Sept 08. Keep your feet on the ground.
SIRI fall to 56 has me surprised. I know Mel wants to hold back on the rev-split for the full first term of allowed time. Waiting makes him look good and beat. Waiting is also a good idea incase more bad news hits.
But, I can not understand why Goldman Sachs is allowing SIRI this slide so early. I predicted the return to 58 cents. I called a play on the 3Q report at 58 to look for the fast 1 cent uptick as a sign to buy. However, lower volume and less manipulation are signals I did NOT expect.
Something has changed in the way SIRI is trading. Stay out of the way…
1. Blackberry App.
2. Google App.
3. Sky Dock
4. Better than expected 3q due to CFC
5. Increased guidance and results in 4q due to robust holiday season
6. Company moving towards profitability.
7. Apple partnership - selling Sky Docks in Apple Stores.
Mel hinted at better than expected churn.
Mel hinted at advertisement based radio option.
Tuna Amobi price target $1.00.
Mel said no reverse split.
Barf, barf, barf. Puke up the short positions.
But you should stop eating paint chips...
On Oct 29 02:42 PM between the hedges_ wrote:
> Dumb and Doomer: Sirius stock and the US economy is taking off and
> exposing you for the absolute morons that you are. Just a matter
> of time until you are completely irrelevant and no longer posting.
> Tick tock. The clock is ticking towards the report and holiday season.
> 4 more trading days to cover, shorts!
Honestly, like I said, hope the company does well. Also they never release the numbers on how many of those new car buyers with the 6+ months siriusxm promotions are carried into real subscribers. I think Sat radio had its shot, and is starting to blow it. Kinda like Blockbuster is in bad shape way behind Netflix, and others.
Then again the government wants to run the show on all capitalism, and with Sirius tied to a dying breed in Detroit.... maybe they can run it all!