Pfizer (PFE) faces the challenge of offsetting exclusivity losses on multiple products with 2004 sales of $11.1 billion (25% of total human pharmaceutical sales), a level that will approach virtually go to zero in the next three years due to generic erosion. In addition, the unplanned loss of $1.1 billion Bextra (withdrawn due to a serious skin reactions, not cardiovascular risk) added additional stress to Pfizer’s outlook.
In the face of these events, we would be discouraged if not for Pfizer’s new product cycle led by a combination of four major opportunities (Lyrica, Sutent, Exubera, and Lipitor/torcetrapib) and a host of supporting compounds (Zeven, Eraxis, varenicline, fesoterodine, and asenapine). Analysts note that three of Pfizer’s four key new products are already approved thus removing a substantial portion of regulatory risk. The four compounds account for 90% of our projected $8.5 billion in five-year incremental pharmaceutical revenues.