eBay Listings for 3Q'06 Continue to Track Ahead of Estimates

Caris & Company analyst Tim Boyd updates clients on eBay's (EBAY) core listings. His note follows:

3Q06 Listings Still Tracking Ahead Of Our Estimate; Mix Continues To Shift In Favor Of Core

• Our QTD core (i.e. excluding Stores) listings count is up 26% Y/Y – this represents an acceleration from the 22% rate that eBay posted in 2Q06.

• Our QTD Stores global listings count is up 94% Y/Y – this represents a deceleration from the 178% rate that eBay posted in 2Q06.

• We estimate full-quarter listings of 612MM (up 33% Y/Y), which is roughly 1% higher than our published estimate of 608MM (up 33% Y/Y).

• Our QTD count indicates an 84% core, 16% Store listings mix – this is an improvement from last quarter’s 82% core, 18% Store mix and suggests that 2Q06 may have been the trough quarter in terms of listings monetization.

• On a smoothed, rolling-13-week basis, we see core global listings growing at 47% Y/Y, core U.S. listings growing at 32%, and core International listings growing at 61%.

• QTD, we are tracking Y/Y listings growth acceleration in the U.S., Germany, Taiwan, France, Italy, Korea, the Netherlands, Spain, Hong Kong and New Zealand.

• QTD, we are tracking Y/Y listings growth deceleration in the U.K., Australia, Canada, China, Belgium, Austria, Singapore, Switzerland, Sweden and Ireland.

• We maintain our 2*/Above Average rating on EBAY shares.

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