Americans Get Their Driving Mojo Back over the Summer

The chart above shows the percent change in U.S. traffic volume through August (from the same month in the previous year), in a report released today by the Federal Highway Administration (data and report here). After falling for 17 consecutive months starting in November 2007, traffic volume has increased in 4 out of the last 5 months. The 0.7% August increase follows increases of 2.2% in July and 1.9% in June, and is the first time since late 2006 of 3 consecutive monthly increases in traffic volume, and the largest 3-month increase since early 2004 (see shaded areas in chart above).

The chart below displays traffic volume as a moving 12-month total, showing a similar pattern to the percentage monthly increase above. After falling for 16 straight months going back to December 2007, the moving 12-month total has now increased 3 months in a row, and in 4 out of the last 5 months, and marks the largest 3-month increase in traffic volume (12-month total) since the spring of 2006, more than three years ago.

The rebound in traffic volume over the summer of 2009 is another sign that the recession probably ended in June.

Comments

[Tony Petroski:]

Dr. Perry.

You're wise to notice the uptick in the Amercan traffic. You think that the recession is over (I agree with you).

I was thinking that, cool weather setting in, the Americans were doing what they can to promote global warming seeing as how global cooling isn't showing up on the register just yet.

Oct 22 03:31 PM

[john s. gordon:]

people lost their close-to-home jobs but found work with a location with a 90 mile commute. that's 180 per day.
they can't move to the new city because they owe more on their mortgage than the house can be sold for in today's market.
they are stuck.
naturally total vehicle miles per year have to go up.
the saudis need the revenue.
anybody for car pools?
> jack

Oct 22 04:41 PM

[bigbear4511:]

You can't base these figures from YoY analysis. Oil was at a record high last year with gasoline demand dropping to a low. Oil is a bit cheaper now but that this changing. 2008 was an outlier of a year for comparison.

YoY jet fuel demand has decreased around 3.5%. Hence because fewer people can afford to fly. Diesel has drop almost 10% because there is very little shipping going on. In September gasoline demand was up around 5.2 percent. I was really surprised to see that despite the recession with millions of people not driving to work that gasoline demand would be up. Last year crude was sickeningly high and demand for gasoline hit an old time low. But as we move along the last years price of fuel was dropping while this years is going up. Soon there will be a cross roads

Demand for Gasoline was up 6.2% YoY in September
Demand for Gasoline in Early October was 5.2%
Last week demand for Gasoline was up 4.2 %
I just read another article that states YoY gasoline was up 3.9% from this time last year. See the trend

Very soon demand for Gasoline will be down YoY as are prices edge up while last years oil prices plummeted.

Conclusion
jet fuel demand down
diesel demand down
Gasoline demand down

Equals less driving.

Oct 23 04:18 AM