Concerns About Disorderly Monetary and Economic Crisis Are Increasing

Gold
Gold is currently trading at $1,054.60/oz. In euro and GBP terms, gold is trading at €704.60/oz and £637/oz. Support for gold is currently seen at $1,043/oz and resistance at $1,070/oz.

Cheap money and the massive international liquidity injection has again risen all boats but the question is whether the gains seen in nearly all asset classes are sustainable. Elevated gold prices suggest that smart money internationally is concerned about the long term implications of current loose fiscal and monetary policies. Many large hedge funds, central banks, high net worth and retail investors are also concerned about the outlook for the dollar.

Concerns about the decline in the dollar creating deflationary pressures in European, Japanese and other economies may lead to tense meetings at the upcoming meeting of finance ministers from the world's 20 largest economies, taking place in Scotland on November 6th and 7th. There is a realization that the “strong dollar policy” is no longer the thrust of US policy. An overriding US policy objective may now be to ensure that the benign and orderly falls to date do not become a disorderly dollar unraveling.

Silver
Silver is trading at $17.48/oz. In euro and GBP terms silver is trading at €11.66/oz and £10.54/oz.

Platinum Group Metals
Platinum is trading at $1,355/oz while rhodium and palladium are trading at $1,800/oz and $330/oz respectively.

Disclosure: no positions

Comments

[yellowhoard:]

Is there such a thing as an "orderly economic crisis"?

I think the powers that be are planning a very chaotic crises so we'll all be happy when they ram global government down our throats.

Oct 22 07:26 PM

[Speedspirit:]

Passing along info I read that GLD the gold ETF which reports every friday the serial numbers of every bar in inventory and that this list is usually thousand plus pages long that on October 2 and October 9 the bar list shrank to a mere few hundred pages long with no explanation.Could it be that physical Gold in inventory has been replaced with paper gold,in order to save the bullion banks that have gone naked short and got cornered.

Beware this Global meeting in December in which are President plans to sign a treaty on Global Warming which will over ride the US Constitution are begin the World Government under this pretext of saving the planet.

Oct 22 08:46 PM

[Albertarocks:]

I have a question for those of you who have more experience than I about the gold mining sector. YH, I hope you'll give me your opinion and I welcome all others.

Osisko Explorations is one of the brightest junior stories in Canada at the moment, and on Oct. 20th, their story only brightened with the release of the latest drill results. Yet in spite of the release of more great news, the stock has done absolutely nothing since the press release that's shown on the link below:

www.osisko.com/en/pres...

Is this price action (or lack of) out of the ordinary, or should a better positive reaction have been absolutely expected?

Oct 22 09:51 PM

[Albertarocks:]

"An overriding US policy objective may now be to ensure that the benign and orderly falls to date do not become a disorderly dollar unraveling."

At any other point in the past, I'd normally expect that if this thing started to evolve into further devaluation of the dollar, which is inflationary, the stock market would normally rise.

This time, I think not. If the dollar starts to unravel in a non-orderly fashion as the article suggested is a growing concern (this means panic mode), this time the stock markets will probably tank when at any other time, they'd probably rise.

Gold... I don't have to tell anyone here what would happen with the price of gold.

Oct 22 09:59 PM

[Albertarocks:]

On Oct 22 07:26 PM yellowhoard wrote:

> Is there such a thing as an "orderly economic crisis"?
>
> I think the powers that be are planning a very chaotic crises so
> we'll all be happy when they ram global government down our throats.<

Absolutely no question in my mind that that is the case.

Oct 22 10:03 PM

[tripleblack:]

I looked over the findings, and though the numbers are certainly commercially exploitable for an open pit mine utilizing "heap leach" methods (or similar process), they are only that. Not the cave of ali baba.

I suspect that the price of Osisko was not impacted by this news because the findings were similar to the expected results already built into the price. Expectations were met, else the price would go down, but they did not "beat", or not by much.

Given that Osisko is in an agreement with Golden Valley, and must foot the bill for the exploration, development and mining costs, and still pay 30% to Golden Valley of any gold found, the profit picture is still out there (about 4 years, reading between the lines of their agreement).

Also, the location and type of mineralization (deposits in veins) in what sounds like pretty crumbly rock - plus the intention to mine using a large open pit - means that extraction will involve the removal of considerable overburden and waste. The samples, which of course are taken with an eye to hitting as nearly as possible the actual veins where the gold lies, indicate about .8 to 1 gram (rough estimate on my part, not enough info to get more scientific) per ton of the SAMPLE (no way to tell how much overburden and additional waste would be present).

Commercial gold mining can yield a profit from very small amounts, say .0015 troy ounces/ton, so these numbers would indicate that a commercial mine operation would be feasible.

The environmental impact of such an operation would be immense, and the potential costs of remediation after extracting the gold very large as well. The highly toxic "heap leach" cyanide method, plus the use of the various chemicals used to concentrate and capture the gold, are both expensive processes in their own right and potential environmental concerns of a high order.

I would say that this company is still a good way from being in a position to start mining, and their first set of government hurdles are likely to be high ones. Even so, $20billion in estimated gold is a lot of gold, and certainly reason enough to keep an eye on this company.

I would think that Golden Valley might be another to investigate, as they are in a strong position and exposed to much less risk in this undertaking.


On Oct 22 09:51 PM Albertarocks wrote:

> I have a question for those of you who have more experience than
> I about the gold mining sector. YH, I hope you'll give me your opinion
> and I welcome all others.
>
> Osisko Explorations is one of the brightest junior stories in Canada
> at the moment, and on Oct. 20th, their story only brightened with
> the release of the latest drill results. Yet in spite of the release
> of more great news, the stock has done absolutely nothing since the
> press release that's shown on the link below:
>
> www.osisko.com/en/pres...
>
>
> Is this price action (or lack of) out of the ordinary, or should
> a better positive reaction have been absolutely expected?

Oct 22 11:53 PM

[Albertarocks:]

Woah tripleback... holy smoke buddy, I wasn't expecting such a great analysis. Thank you! I wasn't expecting anybody would go to that much trouble. I really appreciate your take on it.

Just in case you or anybody else is interested in more, here's a link to one of their web pages where you could click on a flash animation. It's very cool. For anyone who's going to take a peek, I'd suggest starting on their flash animation called "Life Cycle Of the Mine".

www.osisko.com/en/comm...

Thanks again tripper!

Oct 23 12:16 AM

[tripleblack:]

I just disgorged some data from the stacks.

This is what I routinely do when I encounter a potential investment - as a first quick and dirty review. The real homework takes a lot more time.

Oh, and I meant to mention that a single individual - who also happens to be the company's CEO - signed off on and took responsibility for ALL the data, analysis and sampling. This is vaguely disturbing to me...

I would feel better had several outside paid professionals done portions of the work and put their names and reputations on the line.

Oct 23 12:36 AM

[yellowhoard:]

I'm not familiar with Osisko, but my experience with junior miners, and junior companies in general, is that they tend to move in leaps and bounds.

They are also gunned by insiders close to the release of earnings.

If you believe in the story, buy it about three weeks before an earnings announcement and sell on the news or just before the news.


On Oct 22 09:51 PM Albertarocks wrote:

> I have a question for those of you who have more experience than
> I about the gold mining sector. YH, I hope you'll give me your opinion
> and I welcome all others.
>
> Osisko Explorations is one of the brightest junior stories in Canada
> at the moment, and on Oct. 20th, their story only brightened with
> the release of the latest drill results. Yet in spite of the release
> of more great news, the stock has done absolutely nothing since the
> press release that's shown on the link below:
>
> www.osisko.com/en/pres...
>
>
> Is this price action (or lack of) out of the ordinary, or should
> a better positive reaction have been absolutely expected?

Oct 23 09:25 AM

[Albertarocks:]

Thanks for the input Mr. Hoard. Much appreciated.

Oct 23 09:59 AM

[5142152-337:]

Speedspirit: The banksters, er, crooks are going to do ANYTHING to keep them getting more and more of our $$$.

Turning physical gold into paper gold has been their forte for a long time. What the sheeple MUST realize (in order for the TRUE price of silver and gold to emerge) is to TAKE OWNERSHIP of their gold and silver! Its so simple really, pushing the EGBs (elitist greedy bastards) into a corner where they are stuck with their PAPER metal, and we have our PHYSICAL metal will be the day the tide turns. Its coming, but the SHEEPLE must ACT!

Oct 23 11:06 AM

[Albertarocks:]

On Oct 23 11:06 AM 5142152-337 wrote:

> Speedspirit: The banksters, er, crooks are going to do ANYTHING
> to keep them getting more and more of our $$$.
>
> Turning physical gold into paper gold has been their forte for a
> long time. What the sheeple MUST realize (in order for the TRUE
> price of silver and gold to emerge) is to TAKE OWNERSHIP of their
> gold and silver! Its so simple really, pushing the EGBs (elitist
> greedy bastards) into a corner where they are stuck with their PAPER
> metal, and we have our PHYSICAL metal will be the day the tide turns.
> Its coming, but the SHEEPLE must ACT!<

This is fact! Remember what the courts say.....

Possession is nine tenths of the law!

Oct 23 04:32 PM

[Tom Szabo:]

Osisko has a feasibility report on the Canadian Malartic deposit from an independent party as required by 43-101 and very few of the risks outlined by "tripleback" are worth worrying about. The fact is that Osisko is a relatively low risk gold developer in Canada that is fairly valued at this time given the present gold price. It is also in an unattractive stage in the gold mine development cycle between feasibility and sustained commercial production. There are comparatively much better values out there, but you have to do a lot of work to build valuation models to screen them. Typically the better values also have a greater risk profile.

Regarding the chart of "global monetary aggregates", does anybody else see that it seems to have topped out after 30 years of parabolic growth? How the heck can we have both a declining dollar AND deflationary pressures?

Oct 24 06:08 AM

[ManAboutDallas:]

We can't, Mr. Szabo, and therefore we don't. The declining dollar is obvious, so that means the "disinflationary pressures" are either fleeting, temporary aberrations, or concocted fantasies [ read: made-up-to-look-good-s... ]. Given the sober reality provided by sites such as shadowstats.com, the curtain is about to be pulled back and we will all see the Bankrupt Wizard of Oz for what it is: a Naked Emperor worthy of Hans Christian Andersen himself.


On Oct 24 06:08 AM Tom Szabo wrote:

> How the heck can we have both a declining dollar AND deflationary
> pressures?

Oct 24 06:55 PM

[Tom Szabo:]

The other alternative being that the dollar decline is really the one that is "fleeting, temporary aberrations, or concocted fantasies". I haven't decided either way primarily because a conviction like yours places significant handicaps on the ability to make money.


On Oct 24 06:55 PM ManAboutDallas wrote:

> We can't, Mr. Szabo, and therefore we don't. The declining dollar
> is obvious, so that means the "disinflationary pressures" are either
> fleeting, temporary aberrations, or concocted fantasies [ read: made-up-to-look-good-s...
> ]. Given the sober reality provided by sites such as shadowstats.com,
> the curtain is about to be pulled back and we will all see the Bankrupt
> Wizard of Oz for what it is: a Naked Emperor worthy of Hans Christian
> Andersen himself.

Oct 25 05:00 PM

[realist len:]

If you have physical Gold and Silver you actually have it, paper is just paper. When the sheep finally realize this, it will be for the better.

Oct 27 08:14 PM

[JW.USC:]

And metal is just metal. Neither one is "worth" anything except what humans grant them in value for the true necessities of life.


On Oct 27 08:14 PM realist len wrote:

> If you have physical Gold and Silver you actually have it, paper
> is just paper. When the sheep finally realize this, it will be for
> the better.

Nov 11 12:59 PM