Can Apple Be a $300 Stock? 40 comments
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Yesterday, the market sold off fairly hard, but one stock that stayed in the green all day was Apple (AAPL). The chart above shows the recent stock action, accompanied by a huge volume spike, as well as the long uptrend. The gap higher on Tuesday was the reaction to the company's blowout earnings report. I covered the earnings conference call for TheStreet.com Monday night. Here is a copy of my comments:
"Apple reported a true blowout quarter. When the headline first crossed the newswire, I mumbled "wow." That's how surprised I was by how much the company surpassed consensus estimates.
EPS came in at $1.82, 40 cents ahead. Revenue also surprised at $9.87 billion, as did gross margins coming in at 36.6%.
Growth accelerated for the third consecutive quarter. Revenue grew 25% from the year-ago period, while earnings surged ahead 44%. The tax rate also helped, coming in at just 26% vs. expectations of close to 30%. Gross margins were boosted by component costs coming in less than forecast, and the product mix of higher-margin products, including Snow Leopard software (high margins), which sold at twice the rate of the first Leopard release.
Macs were the standout, and the leading driver of the revenue upside. The company sold 3.05 million Macs, with the growth rate accelerating to 17% year over year. This is an order of magnitude greater than the 2% overall PC growth that has been estimated for the quarter. Apple cited a very strong back-to-school season, strength in Asian demand (up 42%), as well as a consumer who was very attracted to their portables, which grew 35% from last year. That is impressive growth, and management says the segment still has fantastic momentum.
iPhones were also very strong, with 7.4 million units sold (up 7%). The response to the new 3GS phones has been strong, and management noted that the iphones have led the J.D. Power consumer satisfaction polls. They noted that demand did indeed outstrip supply in the quarter, but the equation should be coming into balance. They start selling in China later this month and are also expanding carriers in the U.K. and Canada. By year-end, they should be selling in 80 countries.
iPods fared better than the Street was expecting, with 10.2 million sold (down 8%). Of iPod buyers, 50% were reportedly first-time buyers, intrigued by the new features on the Nano and lower price point on the iTouch ($199). iTouch sales actually spiked 100% and should be a strong seller in the holiday season. The company claimed 70% market share in MP3 players, and I believe that sales should be strong this holiday season. I know I am ready to upgrade my iPod, as I would like the new FM radio and camera functionality (is it weird to snap pics at the gym?).
The other major factor that helped the stock top the $200 level after hours was stronger-than-expected guidance. EPS guidance of $1.70 to $1.78 was well above the whisper numbers of $1.68. Moreover, revenue guidance was in line with current estimates ($11.3 billion to $11.6 billion), a big surprise given their normal conservatism, and well above whispers of $11.0 billion. Similar to last quarter, gross margin guidance was 34%, and the tax rate at 30%.
The CFO said the company is unsure about when it would adopt the new FASB accounting standard, but it will probably occur at some point during 2010. Interestingly, if you look at the end of the press release, the company shows that if FASB were adopted now, it would have earned $3.12 in EPS this quarter. That's pretty amazing, and if we were to annualize that, we could argue that AAPL has earnings power of $12 next year. Now don't get all crazy on me for being bullish, but if you apply a P/E of 25 times to that figure, you could justify a price target of $300. I'm just saying...
So I posted my $300 target on TheStreet.com Monday night. The next evening, on Jim Cramer's Mad Money show, he devoted some time on the show to Apple. Guess what price target Cramer came up with for AAPL? $300. Go figure. Welcome aboard, Jimmy.
Disclosure: long AAPL
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This article has 40 comments:
Apple's strength is in doing everything just right with a knack of not getting sidetracked with non essential businesses such as enterprise businesses and telecommunications security which soak up resources but chips away at profitability.
For Apple to advance a few things must happen. Snow Leopard has to establish at least a 25% OS market share. iPhone has to establish at least 35% of North American smartphone market share, which would largely come off Rim's current market share, and 10% of global share of smartphones. Apple computers should gain a stronger foothold in the PC market, perhaps 25%.
1:
From Apple's statement:
>> Adjusting GAAP sales and product costs to eliminate the impact of subscription accounting, the corresponding non-GAAP measures* for the quarter are $12.25 billion of “Adjusted Sales” and $2.85 billion of “Adjusted Net Income.”
---
That is $3.12 EPS.
Sometime soon Apple will switch to new accounting rules that will allow the most of iPhone sales to be booked when sold.
2:
At least for the last two years, never has Apple's Fiscal Q4 (Sept) EPS exceeded the FQ1 until now ($1.82 vs $1.78) and did so handily. In the past, FQ4 always lagged FQ1 significantly (e.g. 2008 $1.26 vs $1.76)
In terms of revenue -
FQ4 revenue lagged that for same year FQ1 by 17 - 20%. This year by a mere 3%.
Conclusion:
Growth is accelerating. (Although one might argue that this is due to the bad economic environment last December. The environment now is still not all that great!)
OS/X currently has a tiny share of the entire PC market. With better informed consumers, it will continue to make sales when people consider their choices. I will say that as along as Apple continues to sell Macs and the iPhones at a sustained profitable rate, it will remain a profitable company.
As for iPhone, 35% is also unnecessary and unrealistic. The reason is that the "smartphone" market is changing and the volume is rising. With RIM giving phones away for free and various vendors offering every stripes under the Sun, iPhone will not jump to 35% so quickly. As long as it continues to increase market shares, it will do Apple good.
It is more important to have profitable growth than focusing on market share. Market share is misleading and can skew a strategy.
Let us use non-GAAP numbers:
We have FQ2-4:
1.84
2.14
3.12
------
7.10 $ = nonGAAP EPS so far this calendar year
over passed 2 years Dec Q has exceeded Sept Q by:
74% and 41% (this is for GAAP) So let us take a conservative 25% increase (over $3.12) as estimate for next quarter non-GAAP = $3.90.
This gives us an even $11 for Calendar year 2009 EPS. (again, non-GAAP)
(Today Yahoo has PE = 35.87 GAAP)
At todays price of roughly $205, the non-GAAP PE would be 18.6.
At a price of 300, the PE would be: 27.3.
Just a few numbers.
I'm holding my Apple at least til they hit 25% US computer market share. That should be an achievable goal. In fact, I think they COULD hit 100%, but I'm a conservative investor--who's to say they won't screw up at some point?
On Oct 22 06:54 PM JamesApple wrote:
> Problem with Microsoft is it's software only. Problem with Google
> is it's Search only. Problem with Research in Motion is it's eMail/Messaging
> only + Rim is behind everybody else.
>
> Apple's strength is in doing everything just right with a knack of
> not getting sidetracked with non essential businesses such as enterprise
> businesses and telecommunications security which soak up resources
> but chips away at profitability.
>
> For Apple to advance a few things must happen. Snow Leopard has to
> establish at least a 25% OS market share. iPhone has to establish
> at least 35% of North American smartphone market share, which would
> largely come off Rim's current market share, and 10% of global share
> of smartphones. Apple computers should gain a stronger foothold in
> the PC market, perhaps 25%.
if you can't innovate(NOK) next best option is to SUE....
NOK's R&D is really going down hill...
the implications are enormous.
it will create a paradigm shift.
I hope someone can come up with a percentage of internet access originating from:
a.)PC
b.)Notebook and or Netbook
c.)Smartphone
for sure the table will eat the shares for the PC and notebook and will come out as the top device for connecting to the world wide web.
Apple is practically the only Smartphone manufacturer that doesn't have an agreement with Nokia to use the technology they developed.
We all love Apple but that doesn't mean they're exempt from intellectual property laws.
I don't understand how you can knock Nokia's R&D when they built the technology the iPhone runs on.
We can see that iPhone is starting to become commoditised in a number of markets : UK , 4 carriers for example, expect rest of EU to follow suit. When this happens, so does a tarriff war putting pressure on both hardware retail value, but also on potential revenue share agreements between Apple & the carrier.
The new Droid from Verizon is getting rave revues & I feel that we will see a lot more coming from the Android camp, specifically in Asia. Apple's inability to strike a deal with China Mobile on TD-SCDMA 3G standard is a major blip, on what is admittedly a great distribution strategy to date.
Apple need to revisit core values & look at the Mac product range & bring some blow away innovations out to keep up the momentum. No matter how much we love the OS, compared to Windoze, it is still a pretty small % of global sales.
Long Apple, but $300 in 12 months ?
To reach $300 it almost certainly needs no more than 5% and 5% respectively.
It will be an easy win, happening before the end of 2010.
And as for Nokia, it wants $12 per iPhone for the same technology it charges others maybe $1 per phone.... Screw Nokia, they need to come down to earth.
What nonsense Paul! There is NO commoditisation happening here - at all!
The carriers that don't have the iPhone are screaming for it and are paying premium - not commodity - prices.
On Oct 23 08:16 AM Paul Harper wrote:
> We can see that iPhone is starting to become commoditised in a number of markets
I'm old enough to remember Commodore and what competition did to them. Never underestimate your competition, especially if they have lots of cash. The new slim notebook introduced by Dell yesterday plus the rave reviews that Windows 7 is getting may reduce that $300 target. I own both MSFT and AAPL so I hope they both succeed but never let your love of a product blind you to another.
I link my laptop to my TV and watch TV over the internet on my big screen, this will be a huge new market and the company that taps it first will have something bigger than the phone market.
wake-up America.You can't used the excuse--labour intense and chinese work for peanuts.The chinese products-- are stamped out in the millions. How do ordinary Americans benefit ,if they don't hve a job to buy stocks?
{:^/
On Oct 22 09:26 PM Tom B wrote:
> MSFT tells the world that splitting hardware and software is an "advantage"
> that builds "competition". Sure, HP, Asus, Dell, Lenovo can all fight
> tooth and nail over who can ship the cheapest piece of junk that
> still boots. It's a shortsighted, flawed business model, in my view.
>
>
> I'm holding my Apple at least til they hit 25% US computer market
> share. That should be an achievable goal. In fact, I think they COULD
> hit 100%, but I'm a conservative investor--who's to say they won't
> screw up at some point?
not random thought, I suggest you try a Google Search for "Strand Consult & iPhone"
On Oct 23 09:19 AM Jon T wrote:
>
> What nonsense Paul! There is NO commoditisation happening here -
> at all!
>
> The carriers that don't have the iPhone are screaming for it and
> are paying premium - not commodity - prices.
>
> On Oct 23 08:16 AM Paul Harper wrote:
On Oct 23 09:21 AM long_on_oil wrote:
> Apple at $300, you can have mine for $250 right now....lol
> I'm old enough to remember Commodore and what competition did to
> them. Never underestimate your competition, especially if they have
> lots of cash. The new slim notebook introduced by Dell yesterday
> plus the rave reviews that Windows 7 is getting may reduce that $300
> target. I own both MSFT and AAPL so I hope they both succeed but
> never let your love of a product blind you to another.
> I link my laptop to my TV and watch TV over the internet on my big
> screen, this will be a huge new market and the company that taps
> it first will have something bigger than the phone market.
patents aside.
I think apple is using chips that have patent licenses pertaining to 3G and surely apple pays for the GSM fees.
and it took NOK to sue apple after 3 generations of iphone....
Don't see the logic...
I only see WHITE FLAGS...
and NOK has postponed their next "smart" phone the n900....
Competition is great...it'll keep Apple doing what it does best.. profitable innovation.
I love tech stocks, they have been my biggest gainers and losers. Unfortunately human nature has you hold the losers to long and keeps you from selling the winners in a timely manner.
I know this is a high on apple article but never forget that fortune 500 companies perfer Microsoft and they will not forfeit their software investment to switch.
So why would corp want to lock out every other hardware vendor, just to use an wintel box with an Apple OS?
Most big companies use many software vendors and many hardware vendors, they dont lock into to one.
Never ever ever.
Apple is doing great with its ipods and iphones, the macs are a sideshow compared to them.
On Oct 23 07:38 AM Shaftsinker wrote:
> NOK has a very legitimate lawsuit.
>
> Apple is practically the only Smartphone manufacturer that doesn't
> have an agreement with Nokia to use the technology they developed.
>
>
> We all love Apple but that doesn't mean they're exempt from intellectual
> property laws.
>
> I don't understand how you can knock Nokia's R&D when they built
> the technology the iPhone runs on.
On Oct 23 10:20 AM thotdoc wrote:
> The only screw up I fear is ...something happens to Steve Jobs.<br/>
On Oct 23 12:13 PM long_on_oil wrote:
> My point on Commodore was that the stock once sold for $120 but the
> company had poor manaagement and as you said did not innovate. These
> tech stocks can crash and burn so fast you can't get out of them
> fast enough. Enjoy the ride with MSFT and AAPL but just make sure
> you take profits before you get caught with your pants down.
> I love tech stocks, they have been my biggest gainers and losers.
> Unfortunately human nature has you hold the losers to long and keeps
> you from selling the winners in a timely manner.
> I know this is a high on apple article but never forget that fortune
> 500 companies perfer Microsoft and they will not forfeit their software
> investment to switch.
On Oct 23 08:16 AM Paul Harper wrote:
> The new Droid from Verizon is getting rave revues
However, the boygeniusreport.com just posted a preview of a prototype Droid phone today which they do say seems pretty impressive.
Rich,
if you read the release from Nokia, it is obvious that they have been in discussion with Apple for some time, so to say that they have waited 3 generations of iPhone is perhaps a little misleading, especially as the iPhone is only 2.5 years old (publicly available).
It takes some time to strip down & look at technology, build a case & present. We are talking potentially hundreds of millions of dollars in lost IP revenues. Nokia has every right to pursue for damages.
Reading through this comment thread, it is the usual gang up on any Apple nay sayer, the same emotional response as if you were to say my child is ugly. Grow up people, there are some very pertinent comments.
Paul H, I have read the Strand Consult paper & yes they do make some very good points, however, it also smacks of an axe being ground to a certain extent. I happen to agree 100% with your synopsis regards China Mobile, from what I have been able to learn in China, is that it was more a case of revenue share issues that stopped any deal.
Jon T, is always easy to sit in your self constructed ivory tower & shout down anyone that disagrees with your own personal view. PH comments do hold some value, so to dismiss him in a public forum as spouting nonsense, is plain poor netiquette.
I have recently been working on a project that involved iPhone, from a network perspective. The issue being the "success" of the device on a particular network. The carrier involved has had an exclusive & all has been well & good, however launch of 3GS is now causing huge brown outs in metropolitan areas in the mornings & evenings, as people download content for daily commutes. The cost implication is huge & the carrier is now rethinking it's approach to iPhone due to this & other associated issues.
So iPhone is great, yay woo, I have one & I love it as a consumer. As a practicioner in 3G networks, it's a hog & causes a number of complex issues for carriers.
So not all is as rosy as Apple fanbois like to think. It is also inevitable that new tech & competitors will come out with devices that will compete, take market share etc. To think otherwise is foolish to say the least. Asia & Android OS will be the biggest competitor short term. Also, having pioneered the App Store concept, iPhone is now competing against directly against carrier led initiatives, Vodafone 360' being a prime example. Carriers want control, both fiscally & operationally of VAS that is being used on their networks & will resist any further actions that turn them into dumb pipes. Brings us back to Android ....
On Oct 23 11:09 AM rich168 wrote:
> the wild card here is google with their Chrome OS
>
> patents aside.
> I think apple is using chips that have patent licenses pertaining
> to 3G and surely apple pays for the GSM fees.
> and it took NOK to sue apple after 3 generations of iphone....<br/>
>
> Don't see the logic...
> I only see WHITE FLAGS...
>
> and NOK has postponed their next "smart" phone the n900....
but I am going to wait until the bugs are at least 'known'.
On Oct 23 10:35 AM Tom B wrote:
> "plus the rave reviews that Windows 7 is getting may reduce that
> $300 target." Vista got rave reviews, too. You think MSFT wouldn't
> punish journalists who give them honest reviews?
>
> On Oct 23 09:21 AM long_on_oil wrote:
On Oct 24 02:16 AM Peter Medved wrote:
> Reading through this comment thread, it is the usual gang up on any
> Apple nay sayer, the same emotional response as if you were to say
> my child is ugly. Grow up people, there are some very pertinent comments.
[...]
> So not all is as rosy as Apple fanbois like to think. It is also
> inevitable that new tech & competitors will come out with devices
> that will compete, take market share etc. To think otherwise is foolish
> to say the least. Asia & Android OS will be the biggest competitor
> short term. Also, having pioneered the App Store concept, iPhone
> is now competing against directly against carrier led initiatives,
> Vodafone 360' being a prime example. Carriers want control, both
> fiscally & operationally of VAS that is being used on their networks
> & will resist any further actions that turn them into dumb pipes.
> Brings us back to Android ....
>
> On Oct 23 11:09 AM rich168 wrote:
When asked about Palm (PALM) specifically, Cook said:
"I don't want to talk about any specific company. I'm just making a general statement that we think competition is good. It makes us all better. And we are ready to suit up and go against anyone. However, we will not stand for having our IP ripped off. And we will use whatever weapons that we have at our disposal. I don't know that I can be any more clear than that."
Fighting over IP is a very common occurrence in the high tech industry that normally gets solved by cross-licensing
On Oct 23 12:40 AM rich168 wrote:
> NOK sues AAPL for patent infringement
>
> if you can't innovate(seekingalpha.com/symbo...) next best
> option is to SUE....
> NOK's R&D is really going down hill...
maybe I should refrain from late night commentary.
On Oct 24 01:19 PM Dialectical Materialist wrote:
Your comments about anti Apple commenters being ganged up on would be more powerful without your own ad hominem remarks.
"It is almost inconceivable that someone can produce a mobile phone without using Nokia patented technologies," said Ben Wood, research director at CCS Insight.
Reuters reports potential $1Bn claim for NOK, now how many iPhones would that equate to ? Roughly 2 million, big potential dent coming.
On Oct 23 07:38 AM Shaftsinker wrote:
> NOK has a very legitimate lawsuit.
>
> Apple is practically the only Smartphone manufacturer that doesn't
> have an agreement with Nokia to use the technology they developed.
>
>
> We all love Apple but that doesn't mean they're exempt from intellectual
> property laws.
>
> I don't understand how you can knock Nokia's R&D when they built
> the technology the iPhone runs on.