Over the last year, we have discussed many stocks that have appeared to trade at significant discounts to their intrinsic values. But lately, undoubtedly due in part to the market's rally, we find ourselves discussing previously downtrodden stocks that are actually approaching their intrinsic values. The latest example of this is Melcor (OTC:MODVF), a property developer and property manager in the western part of North America.
This company operates primarily in Alberta, a province rich in oil. When oil prices are high (low), Alberta's economy is strong (weak). While energy prices are volatile, the market's (over)reaction to energy prices appears to be even more volatile, as we saw when we looked at Melcor's price to book over the last several years. At that time, Melcor traded at a 40% discount to its book value. While it's book value hasn't changed, the market value of the stock has almost doubled, bringing it to a level near its book value!
One wouldn't value Microsoft (MSFT) or Intel (INTC) based on its book value, so why place so much emphasis on book value when it comes to Melcor? While land and property prices do fluctuate to some extent, their book values act as a reasonable proxy to market value, particularly if the land was purchased recently. This valuation metric can be used effectively to value homebuilders, for example.
For Melcor, the value of its assets is probably higher than its stated book value. This is due to the fact that some of Melcor's properties were purchased long ago and their prices have therefore appreciated. This makes it all the more surprising that this company can trade at such a large discount to its book value. Even if property prices in some of its areas were to drop by 20% or more, there is no reason why Melcor should trade at just half of its book value! Yet the market provided such an opportunity just a few months ago, and will likely do so again in the future.
But for now, since Melcor has risen to a level commensurate with its book value, much of the upside potential in the stock is now gone. As such, some investors may choose to sell and deploy the capital to situations where great upside potential still exists.