Motorola Droid: A Promising iPhone Challenger

So the specs on this phone are promising.

Great screen, somewhat mediocre processor, but fantastic otherwise and based on Google's Android OS. It's great to see Motorola (MOT) come out with a device that's competitive. Apple (AAPL) has pretty much stopped innovating because the IPhone is in "fat and happy mode." With Android, I think we are starting to see a little heat and a bit more of a competitive field.

The big game changer will be LTE which Verizon (VZ) is promising next year. Within the next three years we should get both Verizon and AT&T (T) on LTE, which will mean better data speeds and more device choices across multiple networks. The biggest challenge for Android (at least in terms of getting me to switch) is applications. People are going to have to be convinced all their media will import seamlessly to Droid and their favorite applications will be available as well.

Here is a screen shot from BGR. There is talk the device may be available as soon as Saturday at Best Buy (BBY) on Verizon.

Comments

[SiliconVall...:]

If I remember correctly, the progressions is as follows:
2007 - iPhone
2008 - iPhone 3G, SDK, App Store.
2009 - iPhone 3G S with new capabilities.

How is it iPhone is in Fat and Happy mode and how does it mean innovation has stopped?

A lot of companies are still making devices to match iPhone capabilities or best it, so they are innovating? While they are fighting to catch up? Strange.

Oct 23 01:56 PM

[nytesky:]

I don't understand the statement that Apple stopped innovating. It seems they have been working very hard on all things iPhone. Maybe the author could explain with more detail.

Oct 23 02:08 PM

[PalinTologist:]

' "Apple (AAPL) has pretty much stopped innovating because the IPhone is in "fat and happy mode." '

okay. and you base your foolish comment on...what?

gotta say, BlindReason, you picked an apt moniker.

Oct 23 02:37 PM

[NDinMSP:]

Indeed, a truly ridiculous article. Good luck competing with those 85,000 Apps.

Oct 23 02:39 PM

[RPG:]

Competing with 85K apps will be a cakewalk. There will be many phones with the Android OS and the Droid will have way more Apps in it's 1st year then the IPhone had in it's first year. The Android OS will cruise past Apple in the # of apps for this phone compared to the IPhone.

Oct 23 03:32 PM

[RobCS:]

Great article! You made your deadline and got in enough key words to attract viewers. Your advertisers are thrilled. You added nothing to the collected wealth of information in the universe but also did little harm. You can sleep in peace.

Oct 23 03:39 PM

[brewer:]

RPG:

Are you for real? +10!

michcoxmsft.spaces.liv.../

Oct 23 03:53 PM

[RLLH:]

I have to agree with RPG that developers would be more interested in developing an application that runs on many phones than on only one, even if that one is iphone. Look at the number of Microsoft applications for pc's versus the number for the Macintosh.

Oct 23 04:31 PM

[Roger Knights:]

"Look at the number of Microsoft applications for pc's versus the number for the Macintosh."

But smartphone hardware won't be as standardized as PC hardware, which will cause problems. For instance, different processors may be used, or different input methods and screen aspect ratios, etc.

OTOH, I think Android will do well. But it's main effect will be to crowd out Nokia, Palm, and MSFT, not Apple.

Oct 23 04:44 PM

[Tom B:]

Motorola...Promising-- in the same sentence? Oh that's right-- "promising" and delivering are DIFFERENT....

Oct 23 07:41 PM

[GSlusher:]

As Roger Knights said, it's not that simple. Different phones may use different processors & graphics chips, different radios, etc. If you're old enough, recall Windows 95. You often had to get special drivers for each graphics card, for example. Google doesn't build in that flexibility--it has to be added by the phone manufacturer. Also, what's to stop Verizon from only allowing apps that it sells (like Apple) to be used on the Droid? Verizon has a history of crippling its phones. My cheap little Samsung phone is supposed to be able to load ringtones from a PC through the battery/data connector, but, because it's from Verizon, the data part of the connector is disabled. The only way to get ringtones is to buy them through Verizon for $2.99+.

Also, I've been trying to find out if the Droid will be able to access data WHILE simultaneously making a call. The iPhone can, because it's on a GSM network, but the Pre cannot on Sprint's CDMA. As Verizon also uses CDMA, the Droid may have the same limitation.


On Oct 23 04:31 PM RLLH wrote:

> I have to agree with RPG that developers would be more interested
> in developing an application that runs on many phones than on only
> one, even if that one is iphone. Look at the number of Microsoft
> applications for pc's versus the number for the Macintosh.

Oct 23 07:53 PM

[rich168:]

I just don't see this Droid eating up iphone market share.

For sure it will take market share from Windows mobile, Palm Pre, Nokia, RIMM, Samsung phone. But hell no not the iphone.

But you have to give it to MOTOROLA... they were left for dead after their last hit phone the V3 Razor.

Another breath of fresh air for MOTOROLA one of the pioneers of mobile phone handsets. I still have a relic from motorola. Lunch box size mobile phone

Oct 23 10:11 PM

[wcinvest:]

In my estimation, the droid will have a major negative impact on iPhone sales growth since this is the phone that will make the Android OS/phones mainstream. Verizon historically have locked down their phones and nickel and dimed their customers but reportedly Verizon isn't going to do much of that with the droid.

I am no fan of Google's business practices so I hope they don't take over the smartphone market but the droid is in all likelihood going to be a major hit and it is competing fairly directly with the iPhone. While AT&T does have as good or even better network then Verizon is some areas of the country, Verizon does have the undisputed best network in the country in terms of coverage.

If the price is equal, the main reasons I would choose the Droid over the iPhone are
1) Bigger screen with greater resolution. This is a big deal... The iPhone has the advantage over the overhyped Palm Pre in screen real estate while Droid will have the edge. A small edge in a large laptop screen is no big deal but a small edge in a smartphone is significant when data plans are mandatory and internet access often sells these devices.
2) The OS allows you to play music from an application such as Pandora and surf the web at the same time. Apple will be forced to do this sooner rather then later or their iPhone sales will plummet.
3) Verizon network.
4) Keyboard. The iPhone virtual keyboard is fine for surfing the web or entering a small amount of text but for composing a medium sized email, most customers would rather have the option of a physical keyboard if it doesn't add much bulk to the phone or take away screen real estate. The droid is a little heavier then the iPhone but remarkably it is barely bigger in terms of dimensions despite having a better camera, larger screen, keyboard and user replaceable battery.
5) An actual commitment to flash support. One of the reasons Apple reportedly doesn't want to support Flash is that they want to lock their customers to the App store.

Frankly even on the same network, in my estimation for the typical customer the Droid probably has the iPhone beat. Time will tell and obviously Apple will still do very well and be the leader of sales in an individual phone model but the phone market can change quickly... The truth of the matter is that in terms of actual cellphone reception and avoiding dropped calls, the iPhone is not as good as an average cellphone. And AT&T, despite their network problems in certain areas, is not to blame for many other phones on the AT&T network having better reception then the iPhone.

Prediction. In the US at least, Android phones will have at least double the market share of the iPhone OS 4-5 years from now. If Windows mobile 7 is a flop, the Android will have triple the market share of the iPhone. BB is entrenched and the Palm OS is probably going to be the failure unless it is bought by stronger hands.

I am not down on Apple...The iPod touch and Nano are actually the best products in their respective categories. (The Zune HD almost creates a category between the touch and Nano since it is significantly smaller then the Touch. The Nano was once overrated but now it is worth its acclaim) I tend to think their upcoming tablet if priced right and if it's available with a reasonable data only plan, is going to be a bigger hit then the analysts probably suspect. Folks that won't web access on a larger screen but don't want to take around the bulk of a netbook to certain places will appreciate a light weight tablet. The key will be affordable internet access... if it's $50 plus a month then the device will probably not be a major hit since folks will not want to add that large of a bill to their existing cellphone bill.

Oct 24 12:58 AM

[r00ster:]

Jeez, I dunno, motorola must be absolutely sure about their story if they are even thinking about competing with the HTC and IPhones of this world!

Oct 24 08:00 AM

[Uncle Miltie:]

Here is the quandry - will Verizon cripple the Droid with all the Verizon "our way or the highway" demands, or will the open Android "anything goes" model be running on the droid?

If the device is crippled, it becomes another blah iPhone wannabe.

If the device is not crippled, Verizon loses several potential revenue streams (tv, gps, ringtones, etc.).

Until I see proof otherwise, I'm betting that Verizon will not give up those secondary revenue streams, relegating Droid to also-ran status.

Oct 24 09:01 AM

[Fremont Rea...:]

Having a standard screen size and UI, makes it easier to develop a great looking app. Don't expect any variation there from Apple. If you research ATT stores you'll discover sale of iPhone is increasing, not decelerating. So expect Apple to have a blow-out next quarter.

Also I'm expecting Apple to collaborate with one of the car makers to create a UI experience to access GPS, music, climate controls, internet in the car and all the new safety technology being incorporated into cars. Who better to come up with the UI to unify it all.

Having said that I don't own any Apple and at this price am not interested in buying. Too much of their current success is riding on the iPhone, and if something negative happens (like phones catching on fire), kaboom goes your investment.

Oct 24 09:58 AM

[mollytjm:]

Apple not innovating anymore? Where do you live? Apple is the best at innovation and if you think they'll sit still and let anyone else lead, think again.

Oct 24 11:27 AM

[joe in miami:]

Google shows good potential. Verizon will have to soften its grip for the partnership to yield good results. iPhone is still a quantum leap ahead of the competition.

Oct 24 12:17 PM

[Troy Jensen:]

The headline intrigued me!

There were a few good points in there, so I won't be as harsh on the author. But the statement that "Apple has pretty much stopped innovating because the IPhone is in fat and happy mode." Yikes. That must have been mistakenly inserted into the article, perhaps a prank by a friend at SA? Because that has absolutely no basis in reality. I won't even address that line further, let's just assume is was not supposed to be there.

As usual, some of the commentary on the article was good, some funny, one ludicrous:

"Competing with 85K apps will be a cakewalk. There will be many phones with the Android OS and the Droid will have way more Apps in it's 1st year then the IPhone had in it's first year. The Android OS will cruise past Apple in the # of apps for this phone compared to the IPhone."

I guess I will chalk that up to someone who just wanted to say something totally ignorant for the heck of it - he must not be serious. If he is, will the masked man that goes by the initials for Rocket Propelled Grenade please contact me, I would love to offer up a very large wager if the RPG man had the liquidity to back that statement up! I'm poking, RPG is already passed out from whatever he was imbibing in earlier today. Sleep tight.

OK, now some serious commentary:

I do think, if the initial reports we are hearing are accurate, this will provide Android OS platform the traction we have all been waiting to see. I have used the iPhone since it was introduced, and have always immediately upgraded when the new versions have been released since. I have owned too many Macs to recall, and I have the Apple TV, the Time Capsule - suffice it to say, I like Apple products. But my iPhone actually hit the wall last Thursday after the 11th - I am not exaggerating, the 11th - drop on a VERY important call involving several people, some overseas (conference call - so yeah, it was my phone, not theirs, call-in 800 number deal). Now, I am fairly even-tempered, and have always chalked up the dropped calls and terrible reception problem as one to live with in exchange for what I feel is the technology invention of the decade.

But 11 drops? I hear and read it everywhere - it's AT&T, it's the iPhone, it's almost soled, etc. I am actually doing the unthinkable - I am going to give the Droid a try.

There are a few reasons for this. Lately, I have been utilizing a lot more of Google's products, and have had a generally very positive experience with them. I am using Google Wave, a truly revolutionary product that, once a lot of bugs are worked out (everyone must remember, that product was just born, the baby hasn't even been cleaned up for the mother yet!), is going to go vertical quickly. I am in the GreenTech industry, and knowing a few senior executives at Google (who were the guys that finally convinced me to give all their products a test drive, and now I'm using a lot of them full-time), Google's PowerMeter is just a a tippy-toe of their plans for the Smart Grid.

So, all-in-all, Google continues to impress me. And if Droid truly does gain the critical mass the pundits are predicting, I am expecting a lot of these Google products will be sleek and smooth on Android OS mobile devices. And, yes, mobile application programmers will begin to really push Android versions out, I know many in mobile programs and for a year, I have heard "once Android has enough market share..." way too many times. It won't, as the gentleman who is smoking something that might be fun later this Saturday night, "be a cakewalk." Having as many applications as the iPhone did isn't a reality, considering Android has been out for a year, debuting on 10/21/08. Droid busting Apple's record will be VERY difficult for one very important reason - games. The Game Industry has embraced the iPhone heartily; I can't even get a clear answer from experts on whether the Droid will have an accelerometer (I have to assume it will).

This leads my to a few final conclusions:

1. Droid is not an "iPhone Killer," or Disruptive Technology, but could be a Disruptive Innovation, and perhaps accelerate the pace of mobile smart-device adoption rates. But until we actually see the phone, and it has a few months on the market, the rhetoric needs to cool down (I was at CES when the PalmPre was debuted there, and people were exclaiming the iPhone was dead - neat device, but the iPhone keeps on trucking).

2. One clear and present danger to the iPhone is the phone feature (I love the statement, "I love everything about the iPhone except the phone feature). I don't know if it's the phone's design, if it's AT&T (I have never used another device on the AT&T network), if it's all of AT&T's bandwith being swallowed by data-transfer overload - and after Thursday, I don't care anymore. I am trying the Droid, will keep my iPhone, and by Christmas I will have the winner. I will not go into 2010 having daily dropped calls. I travel quite a bit, and I can find no geographical sense to it - my iPhones drop calls everywhere (I do actually have two at the moment, long story), my friends iPhones drop calls...I am a devoted Apple fan, but something must be done. If a MacHead has had it, I must assume many are frustrated as well. I hear great things about Verizon - I know I was using T-Mobile and a Blackberry prior to iPhone's arrival, and I never had a major issue with dropped calls.

3. My strong opinion is, IF Droid is everything we are hearing, and if the pricing news I hear is correct, RIMM, Palm, Nokia and others will feel Droid's debut far more harshly than Apple. The iPhone may experience a slowing of their growth in the 30+ demographic, but all the data I have seen regarding smartphone devices suggests it's the 30+ users that are ripe and ready to be picked by Motorola.

4. Which phone will attract more first-time smartphone users remains to be seen. Apple's marketing (brilliant, and their agency, TBWA/Chiat/Day, are the absolute kings of "return fire messaging"), their overwhelming market share lead, the seamless integration with iTunes, the "cool" factor directly related to the iPhone's core demo (younger, affluent, hipsters, Gen Y and X, creative, etc) and finally, Apple's ability to innovate like no other consumer technology company on the planet, leads me to think Droid has it's work cut out for it to "bury" the iPhone.

5. DO NOT discount Apple's tight relationship with the gaming industry. Games are predicted to make up 25% of all iPhone applications by next year, and a recent DFC Intelligence report has predicted the iPhone will overtake BOTH Nintendo and Sony for the lead in portable gaming device sales by 2014. Apple is well aware of this, and has heartily embraced gaming companies. I am also aware from insiders Apple is fully consulting with major gaming players in regards to future generation iPhones. Gaming is a fantastic sector to be part of, and will continue growing. Droid, and Android, has an almost insurmountable disadvantage, being so late to the game, and not having the brand-factor Apple does - Android doesn't mean much to a gamer, nor does Motorola or Verizon - none of these brands are even close to Apple in terms of the buzz factor, important to the primary gamer demographic profile (in The Centre for Brand Analysis' 2009 "CoolBrands" study, Apple just absolutely dominated for the 5th straight year: iPhone was #1, Apple #3, and iPod #4 - Google was #8, but they are starting to take a beating as they have grown so large - America loves the underdog, and Google is evolving into "The Evil Empire", taking that crown from Microsoft).

Asked about the new competition, Andy Cook, Apple's COO, responded, "“I think they’re trying to catch up with the first iPhone that we released two years ago, and we’ve long since moved beyond that."

And the facts back that up: In Apple's latest earnings statement, "iPhone sales grew 7 percent from the same period last year. During the entire fiscal year, Apple sold about 21 million iPhones, a 78 percent increase from the previous year." That number may have been even higher, but the company had some trouble meeting the demand.

Overall, it's much too early to make any serious statements about an "iPhone Killer." Yeah, I am excited, I will get one the first day, and I am going to give it until Christmas before I official stop using my iPhone. I do think it's great for the mobile space as a whole that Android is finally getting the traction it needs, and I was a devoted Motorola guy WAY back in the day - it would be great to see Droid be the beginning of their comeback.

One thing for sure, I am excited to get my hands on it and see if Droid lives up to the hyper-buzz!!!

Oct 24 07:37 PM

[rick12345:]

LOL, CDMA. Are you guys in the US still using this band. The lifespan of this phone is 1 year at the most and as for the likelihood of it being an "iphone killer" , I think not. Google is simply using the cheap and nasty Motorola platform to introduce Android to the masses. This could well turn out to be a marketing mistake. Meanwhile, Nokia is doing the job properly by working with Microsoft to deliver a truly compatible mobile experience, although it will probably aim for the business market rather than consumers. ARM is doing some interesting things with 3D capable mobile processors, so I can see these eventually making their way into iphones. From here, I don't think Apple will have too much trouble transferring Leopard to mobile devices.

Oct 24 09:32 PM

[costello:]

I think that they had upfront, at least 15-25 ready models (edge, 3G, 3Gs, LTE...) of Iphone to be ready for presentation, when AT&T network is done to apply them.


On Oct 23 01:56 PM SiliconValleyJoe wrote:

> If I remember correctly, the progressions is as follows:
> 2007 - iPhone
> 2008 - iPhone 3G, SDK, App Store.
> 2009 - iPhone 3G S with new capabilities.
>
> How is it iPhone is in Fat and Happy mode and how does it mean innovation
> has stopped?
>
> A lot of companies are still making devices to match iPhone capabilities
> or best it, so they are innovating? While they are fighting to catch
> up? Strange.

Oct 25 02:17 PM

[costello:]

Hey I like MOT since 80286 chip, and I do respect that they did not rush a copycat game as some notable companies and take their time to make a respectful product. But, as others say, Android market can be troubled with different chips, ans different inputs etc.
Will see.

On Oct 23 07:41 PM Tom B wrote:

> Motorola...Promising-- in the same sentence? Oh that's right-- "promising"
> and delivering are DIFFERENT....

Oct 25 02:30 PM

[Geddy:]

@rick12345-Nokia hasn't put out a viable/useful device since the 90's. This isn't Europe where they'll use anything.

Oct 25 10:03 PM

[history rep...:]

Apple's greatest strengths have always been the operating system and the user interface (UI). the limited availability of software has been a negative - not to me personally, but to many. the beautiful thing about the iPhone is that Apple moved into a space where the existing UI was even more horrible than Windows, AND they now have more, not less, software (apps) than the competition. as phones evolve into mini-laptops, with the UI even more critical with a tiny screen, nothing is going to challenge the iPhone without challenging Apple's superior UI. it will be interesting to see if Google has the creativity to do that - microsoft surely cannot.

iPhone users will not switch to droid. however, the rate of migration to the iPhone will slow if droid is good. a lot of VZ customers think about switching to get an iPhone. droid might keep them from doing that.

Oct 26 09:24 AM