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Monolithic Power Systems, Inc. (NASDAQ:MPWR)

Company Conference Presentation

September 10, 2013, 17:00 PM ET

Executives

Meera Rao - CFO

Analysts

Ross Seymore - Deutsche Bank

Ross Seymore - Deutsche Bank

Good afternoon, everyone. Hopefully you had a good lunch during those keynotes. We'll get started with the afternoon session here in Las Vegas with Monolithic Power Systems. We have the CFO, Meera Rao, here. Meera is going to go through a few slides and then we're going to hop into Q&A. Again, if you have any questions feel free to raise your hand, we'll get the mic to you and those on the webcast therefore can hear.

So with that, let me pass it over to Meera.

Meera Rao

Thank you, Ross. Thank you all for coming over here for the Monolithic Power presentation. While you quickly read through the Safe Harbor language let me tell you a little bit about MPS. We are an analog company specializing in power management and we're very proud of our history of strong revenue growth. Over the last five years, we have had a compound annual growth rate that has been more than 6x that of the analog industry. Even the most recent here at 2012 where most of our peers experienced a downturn of about 8% -- 7% rather, we saw our revenues grow about 9%, a 16% spread between us and the rest of the analog industry.

This is a chart that essentially looks at revenue growth 2012 over 2011 and plots that against gross margin in 2012 and we are one of the few analog companies that is up onto the right what makes and our growth is all organic, what makes it particularly significant is when you consider that most of the other companies who have been slotted here are all companies that have acquired other companies in the last few years.

You're particularly going to see that in the next slide when I take away all the companies that have acquired other companies in the last three years and you can see that we are still one of the few companies that have grown organically. We have a long-term model that we have talked about for a couple of years now where we want to grow to 500 million, and we have changed our strategy and we're working on introducing a few differentiated products we used to develop over 100 products and we're now talking about developing about 70 roughly new products a year.

And the idea is that these go into more value-added markets where the revenue is stickier [ph], the gross margin profiles are better. And each year we've introduced a new wave of these products and over time while existing business might deteriorate over time as it naturally will, the combination of all these new waves of products will get us up to $500 million in 2016.

The markets we are targeting, you know we used to be very consumer-centric back in 2010 and 2009. We're now moving away from consumer diversifying a way rather and going out to market which will pay a premium for our technology. Communications particularly telecom and networking, storage, SSD and high-end computing opportunities like servers as well as industrial and automotive markets.

Long term, our model is to deliver about 25% to 30% operating margin to our shareholders and at the same time we want to have – to keep the aspect of a business we're very proud of. We have been one of the faster growing companies. We want to keep that revenue profile. At the same time we want to expand – continue to expand our gross margin.

So our whole goal here is to maximize operating margin of 25% to 30%. And recently we have entered into markets and we are entering into a whole bunch of new markets; in servers, the networking, telecom, battery management, modules and you'll hear us talk a lot about modules going forward. SSD and AC/DC overall the market opportunity is something like 4 billion, so even if we conservatively did something like a 5% or 10% of this, we are still talking about incremental revenues of $200 million to $400 million.

So we feel – and we got lots more products and things but for now I'll keep this sort of a quick five minute summary.

Question-and-Answer Session

Ross Seymore - Deutsche Bank

Thanks, Meera. So [indiscernible] over here I've been starting up most of the Q&A just asking about the general marquee conditions and compared to a year ago at this conference or even unfortunately two years ago, the business kind of started softening even though you guys have had a nice couple of years run here, in the fourth quarter of last year even you were down about 15% and it wasn't specific to Monolithic. So I guess the question comes down to if we compare this year versus last, whether it's a market wide demand phenomenon or supply phenomenon, how are you seeing and how would you compare and contrast the two years?

Meera Rao

Compare and contrast the two years, last year when we came in, we came in right after the downturn of 2011 and the first half of 2012 demand took off like a rocket ship and it was like very sharp and was followed by a very sharp downturn in July, the July [indiscernible], if you will.

This year the demand has been stronger but it didn't show the same trajectory as last year and maybe for that reason it has proven to be more sustainable and we are seeing business continues strong into Q3 as well.

Ross Seymore - Deutsche Bank

Last year it seemed to be more the demand side than the supply side, it sounds like from the demand side things are still steady as she goes. What about the supply side, what are you seeing there from an inventory perspective?

Meera Rao

We've seen inventory in the channel be fairly consistent over the last four quarters. Our model is about 30 to 45 days and we have been running slightly above average, but we have been able to keep inventory in the channels fairly consistent and as a result we have increased the amount of inventory that we carry in-house to be able to support that plus to support some of our largest strategic customers as well. So from the supply side, I'd say we are about what used to be our traditional range of 100 to 110 days. So from a supply side we don't see any issues unless there's a sudden sharp change in the demand mix we should be on whatever is anticipated right now.

Ross Seymore - Deutsche Bank

And while I know you're not guiding for the fourth quarter, I'm not going to ask about that, but typically you're down about 10% and that average has a huge standard deviation around it, but even in the last two years, you're down 10% to 15% sequentially. From a consensus basis, not just my numbers, seems to have much better than that. Walk us through a few of the company-specific drivers that are happening in the back half of this year or the fourth quarter if you want to be that specific that would justify that sort of optimism?

Meera Rao

I think from what I understand from the Street optimism is based on the fact that while we do have a seasonal trend, we do expect seasonality in our consumer business. If you noticed Q4 of last year, the seasonal downturn for the company meant that we were down quarter-over-quarter by 15%. The seasonal decline in consumer was more like 25%. So the expectation is I think that there would still be a seasonal decline in consumer. But this year consumer is a smaller portion of our business, so the impact overall on the company would be smaller.

The second is that we have – even within consumer, we have some new elements there like the videogame and console business which will not follow a seasonal pattern and will not be necessarily down from Q3 to Q4. Plus we have a few additional drivers in other markets, like SSD revenue continues to grow. We expect communications revenue to grow and Shark Bay also continues to grow and battery management.

So we have a whole bunch of new Mono kits [ph] that we are seeing revenue going up and so the expectation I think out there is that all these revenue drivers could offset some of the seasonal decline that we would otherwise expect to see. And I think the variation that you're seeing in all the different analysts' estimates is how much they think it will offset the seasonal decline.

Ross Seymore - Deutsche Bank

It sounds positive to have that many reasons to offset it as opposed to most others that have an offset. Usually it's just one thing that they're banking upon.

Meera Rao

Yes. The one thing I do have to say is all this is against the backdrop of assuming that the macro conditions stay the same.

Ross Seymore - Deutsche Bank

Right, of course. Well, we think – take it back to a higher level but company specific higher level, you had the side up there about the end market mix and how it shifted. I think at one point you had put that end market mix slide up there if you could please. I think it was a couple back from there. One more, there you go. So what is the end market mix that you're actually targeting if we look two, three, four years down the road?

Meera Rao

The simplest way of looking at it is we like to grow revenue in all four end markets, but we'd like to see our percentage of revenue increase from communications, storage and computing as well as industrial. So we'd like to see as a percentage of revenue and – I guess that's the simplest answer that I can give as long as we see the mix shifting to these with growth in all four segs, we would be happy. Industrial clearly is the [indiscernible] the end markets, it's got the greatest gross margin profile and liquidity [ph], so of course the higher that number the happier we would be.

Ross Seymore - Deutsche Bank

What does the – if we look into 2014, which of those end markets do you think will be the fastest growing and why?

Meera Rao

Okay. I think storage and computing would most probably be the one that – I'm very sure it's going to grow and that's because of SSD. It's also we have Shark Bay which we have just had. We never had two quarters of revenue this year that has been up the full year's revenue. We have the granting cycle that also comes into the server business which is all new and incremental business to us. I think that would kind of drive revenue higher.

Communications would be the next one. Communications is also a bit of a wildcard. We have some networking opportunities out there which currently I'm kind of assuming that they kind of would ramp out slowly and steadily, but if they were to hit an inflection point that could be faster. But for now I'm putting it number second. And I expect industrial and automotive to continue to grow but it will grow at a slow and steady pace which is how the industrial sector typically performs.

Ross Seymore - Deutsche Bank

Again, keeping it at the high level if all those grow faster in the consumer side and the focus of the company is on all those areas, the gross margins I would assume on all three of those areas are higher than the company average. Is that true?

Meera Rao

Yes.

Ross Seymore - Deutsche Bank

And so if we look at in general you guys have talked about the gross margin that you're delivering right now that's kind of in the low to mid 50s, 53% to 55%.

Meera Rao

58.

Ross Seymore - Deutsche Bank

Right. So you have a target of 58 but you're doing kind of the 54 level right now. Getting from the 54 to the 58, how much of that is driven by mix, new products, utilization. Can you just cross that bridge for us?

Meera Rao

Sure. It's driven more by new products and the mix. As we talked about all three sectors that we're targeting have a higher gross margin profile and as you see a bigger revenue contribution from those three segments, we would expect to see our gross margin also improve. Utilization off our facility in China is a smaller factor when it comes to that. There is a certain impact of course as our revenues start increasing. But I would say the bigger impact on gross margin is more likely to come from the revenue mix and the new products ramping up.

Ross Seymore - Deutsche Bank

To get to the operating margin side where gross margin has to go up 4 or 5 points to get to the high end of your target range, it looks like to get to the midpoint your operating margin will go up by 10. Does that just imply that the OpEx is going to grow much slower than sales? You've made a lot of the investments already. How should we think about OpEx relative to sales?

Meera Rao

On the news release [ph] we have the manpower right now to grow this company to $500 million, so any hiring that we would do there would be just opportunistic hiring because we come across a great engineer or it's a new college grad program that we continue to keep. Sales and marketing, we will be doing some hiring largely investing – it's an investment for the revenue growth in a year or two. So we've kind of managed that investment with an eye on the revenue growth to make sure that there's more leverage to the bottom line.

If you noticed in Q1, non-GAAP operating margin was something like 13.5%. In Q2 it's 17.5. If you take the midpoint of the guidance, you're closer to 21%. So we believe we are on a trajectory that we would get to 25, so the whole idea is to growth revenues, to have the fastest – to have one of the strongest revenue growth out there, to continuously expand our gross margin and to deliver 25% to 30% of operating margin on a non-GAAP basis to the shareholders.

Ross Seymore - Deutsche Bank

If we take a step back to kind of the core underlying technology that drives all of this goodness, it seems to me all the way back to the founding of this company that a lot of it was the manufacturing process and the BCD 2, 3, 4, et cetera. Talk a little bit about the commitment to that technology, what makes it differentiated and where you are on the progression of driving that forward?

Meera Rao

Sure. We're a fabless company but we have our own proprietary fab process. We use the BCD process and while BCD is a process that other companies use, the way this process has been designed and evolves at MPS has been one of our strengths. Our very first BCD process which was engineered by our founder and CEO was what helped us to get into the CCS market with an integrated product, an area where all the competitors had discrete. So we have continued to continuously evolve this process.

And a couple of years ago we introduced a BCD3 process which did two things. It was a 40% to 50% die-size reduction over the previous technology and which helped us particularly when it comes to the high volume consumer business because we now have a die shrink, the cost reductions and the packaging advances we made that allowed us to compete and we call these CoolPower family of products.

But more importantly it allowed us to go to 40, 50 Amps on a smaller die which means we have increased the power density and this allowed us to get into newer markets; servers, networking and telecom, storage, all these markets. And we have continued to follow-up on this with a new BCD4 technology which is another 20% to 50% die size reduction, which means even higher power density.

And we're using this to introduce new products that are even more differentiated than products out there and we do recognize that our process technology gives us an incredible advantage out there and we are not waiting to see if our competition catches up with us or when, but we have continued to evolve our roadmap when it comes to process technology. And while I'm not at liberty to talk about what we are doing with our next process technology, rest assured there is one in the works.

Ross Seymore - Deutsche Bank

Have you seen others try to emulate what you're doing on that front? From my perspective some people look to have caught up maybe three, four years ago but then you over the last two or three years have pulled ahead quite substantially again in some of these new product areas?

Meera Rao

Well, recall our BCD2 process which was in a 10 Amp, 20 Amp range I guess, that's covered largely the biggest volume of the market, 2 Amp to 4 Amp is the sweet spot for consumer and that's where we used to have an advantage of our process at that – when the point being to use it was ahead of – was competition ahead. And as you said, Ross, a few years ago some of the foundries and some of the other companies started coming out with equivalent processes that enabled a lot of our competitions, particularly in Asia.

And since then we kind of stepped up the pace on our process technology development and so far we haven't seen product offerings out there that would be comparable with what we have offered on our BCD3 and we've already moved ahead with a BCD4 and the next one in the works. So we haven't seen from a product offering – I mean a lot of the companies we don't know exactly what processes they have. We can only look at it based on what we see their product capabilities.

Ross Seymore - Deutsche Bank

So if you're pulling ahead on that front which from a revenue growth perspective, it surely looks like you are, you have the manufacturing cost advantage, some of the designs, the new markets, et cetera. Talk a little bit about the historical gross margin rate for the company with kind of 60 plus or minus, maybe a little bit above. It's great to get from 53, 54 up to the upper 50s where you're target is, but what's changed of the company that historical gross margin would no longer be applicable, especially given the mix to superficially it looks to be much better now that it was say five years ago?

Meera Rao

From our perspective what we are trying to optimize is operating margin and not so much gross margin. So we want to kind of be able to keep the feature that we are one of the fastest growing analog companies out there with an expanding gross margin profile. At the same time we're delivering a 25% to 30% operating margin. You're right. As this plays out in time – I mean there's no reason why we are capped out at 58%, but given that we are currently at 53, our last quarter we were at 53.6, midpoint of a guidance for this quarter suggests 54. We are certainly expanding our gross margin profile. There aren't any headwinds that would necessarily keep us at 58, but I'd rather address the question of where we go up from 58 as we get closer to that than when we are closer to 53.

Ross Seymore - Deutsche Bank

Right. And then just to be fair, I have not even a 56 built in for next year in my model, so plenty of upside.

Meera Rao

Okay, good.

Ross Seymore - Deutsche Bank

If we get into a couple of the specific end market segments, I think it was the next slide that you had up there as part of the SAMs or the TAMs you had on there. Talk a little bit [indiscernible] order that you mentioned, talk a little bit about the specific opportunities on the computing and storage side of things, whether it's the dollar content you could have per notebook, per server, et cetera, just so we can frame this opportunity with a little more granularity than the 500 million?

Meera Rao

Sure. So we've qualified an Intel VR12.5 and this is the first time that we've tried one on this platform, so we play both in Shark Bay as well as Grantley. So in Shark Bay we are focusing more on the utility voltage rails because that's the area where we can help extend the battery life versus the core voltage regulation. If customers were to design in all our point of loads that we have for the utility voltage rails, then we are talking about a dollar content possible of $0.90 to a $1.10 per Ultrabook or notebook.

When we look at servers, here we power not just the utility voltage rails but also the core voltage and we of ourselves point of loads, complement switches as well as controllers and drive a Intelli-Phase driver MOS product that are for the DDR, memory as well as the core voltage. So this is an example of – I think on the slide you can see our opportunity is driven not so much by the number of servers but the number of microprocessors for server.

So if it was a 2 microprocessor server and we had all our products designed in, we would have about $30 SAM that's possible. If it was a full way server then our SAM just goes up to $66 per server. Clearly the 8 processor, 16 processor, 32 processor servers and in some cases we have got design wins where all our products are designed in and in some we have a few of them and the design activity is continuing.

And as you know the Grantley cycle is largely a second half of next year cycle and we are very excited because both Grantley as well as Shark Bay are new markets for us. It's all incremental and we are competing in these markets based on performance rather than price because we have products that outperform the competition.

Ross Seymore - Deutsche Bank

As far as the Grantley side of things go, I think people are aware of the notebook side you get on a reference design; Intel, they have a couple of different companies that are on the reference design. How does it work on the Grantley side of things? Do you have a natural competitor in there? And if so, generally what sort of market share do you think makes sense?

Meera Rao

So for us our competition is – there's one other integrated solution provider as well as several discrete solutions. So when we compete, we compete with both the integrated solution provider as well as the discrete. Part of the reason we can compete against the discrete, so if you look at it the way the two markets are segmented is the integrated solutions typically go for the blade servers where they want higher current but form factor matters. The discrete goes more into markets where space is not necessarily as constraint and cost is a bigger driver.

The reason our product can also play against the discrete is we can power a microprocessor with one controller and four driver MOS or four phases whereas the discrete solutions all need five or six. So for the end customer, even if they have to pay a premium for our products over the discrete solutions, at the end of the day the bond phasing [ph] will be such that they are not disadvantaged from a cost standpoint either. They are a better technical solution at a better cost point.

So we can compete against both of these. We usually take a long-term view of things. So Grantley means right now that this is incremental revenue for us, but we want to be a dominant player in this long term. So rather than focusing on how much market share we can get next year or the year after, we are focusing on getting into as many customers as we can and at each customer as many sockets and with as many of our products that we can, we find that the easiest point for us to get in is the point of loads and complement switches.

So then from that once we get in and we're on their approved vendor list, we start progressing towards the DDR and the whole voltage regulation. And our idea is the more sockets and design wins we get into right now with Grantley, we'll do even better in the late Grantley cycle and when there is a success such as Grantley, we are much more firmly entrenched because we will no longer be a new player and we expect that our next product offering in this family will be even stronger than our current Grantley solutions.

Ross Seymore - Deutsche Bank

Are you finding that your level of success differs depending upon the server bender or does the position on the reference design with Intel pretty much guarantee a relatively even split between you and the few other competitors at each server OEMs?

Meera Rao

We found it easier to break in the cloud computing side of things versus enterprise. And that's largely driven by – they are newer players themselves. These are largely Asian OEMs who are supporting Amazon and Google and Facebook, et cetera, by box servers. And they are less entrenched I guess in the decision making process, so it's been easier for us. We targeted them first and we have had successes all the way from just point of loads to getting into the DDR memory as well as core voltage.

We've also found it easier to break into the second tier and we have started now making inroads into the tier 1 as well, and by tier 1 I'm largely talking about the three U.S. players. We just announced last quarter or back in August with our earnings release that we have won multiple Grantley platforms at one of the three large U.S. servers with point-of-load. We followed it up in short order with our current limit switch products and now we are trying to up-sell to the DDR, memory as well as the core voltage. And we have ongoing design activity with the other two as well.

Ross Seymore - Deutsche Bank

So last question on this if – let's just talk about the two-way servers where you had roughly $40 of SAM or TAM on there, do you think the progression is in the first generation? You get $5, $10, $20, how does it work without talking about the exact ASP for point-of-load and each of the individual chips? How do you think you guys progressed in that potential TAM?

Meera Rao

So if we are talking about a two-way and sort of having a $30 opportunity there, I'd expect ours on average to be less than that. Where we are in the spectrum is not something I can guide to right now with any confidence because a lot of the design activity is still going on, particularly the one with relation to the DDR and the core voltage. So all I can say is if it was a two-way, dollar content on average would most probably be less than the $10 that's possible for us, but it is improving as we go through.

Ross Seymore - Deutsche Bank

Got you. Any questions from the audience? Why don't we move over to the comp side of the equation, I think that has also a very large SAM – I don't remember the exact number, but hundreds of millions either way on that if I remember right?

Meera Rao

Yes.

Ross Seymore - Deutsche Bank

Talk a little bit about what you're doing there and specifically some of the Monolithic Power Modules, the MPM side of things and we've been hearing about some of the ramps with some of the Asian vendors for quite some time, so if you can give us an update on the timing of when you expect that ramp to occur?

Meera Rao

Sure. I'll go to market strategy when it comes to networking and telecom is first to break into those accounts and get designed in with the first product, whatever that could be. It could even be a complement switch. But to get on the approved vendor list, because once we're inside the opportunity to sell additional products improves dramatically. This is an example of one of our design wins. This is an opportunity where we have got our controller and Intelli-Phase driver MOS product designed in. And for each board we have 9 of our controllers and about 22 of our driver MOS that's designed in and there are 10 boards per chassis.

So put together our revenue opportunity here is an excess of $350 per box. And this is just one chassis that they have. There are multiple chassis. So the truly addressing thing for us now that we are broken into this account is to proliferate across to the different platforms and there's no reason why we couldn't replicate this across different boxes. So this is an instance where the business working company has chosen to use their own module and they have put our controller and our Intelli-Phase driver MOS inside.

We also have a high current 20 Amp module which we have designed in at a networking company where we could replace a much larger [indiscernible] module that was being used with a module that's a fraction of the size. We have introduced a whole range of these products all the way from 1 Amp all the way up to 20 Amp and beyond. But the ones that are being targeted at networking, server and storage are the higher current modules over here. So we have a design win here. We've got the first box.

And the rollout of this product has been slower than what a customer had talked to us about in the past. It's an Asian customer and we expect to start shipping. We expect our revenue to start growing next year. What will truly make it meaningful and more interesting for us as well as our investors is when this design goes out from the first box we are in, gets into the library of products at this customer and from that proliferate across to multiple products.

But in the meantime I'm going to use this for a one minute plug on our MPM. So the whole idea here is that we can replace a whole bunch of products that are there to come up with something that's a lot more compact, a lot more simpler and in a lot of instances instead of having to pick inductors, capacitors and various other discrete components, they just have to pick an input capacitor and an output capacitor on our module and they're off to the races.

So if I were to define them broadly we have the high current modules like the 20 Amp and the 30 Amp and these are meant for higher current applications, particularly networking and servers and the rest of the lower current can go into all kinds of applications. So if we look at the market, this is something that cuts across all our market segments. It can go from consumer to networking to computing to storage as well as industrial and automotive, and we have introduced a few of these products and we have planned to kind of come out with a whole suite of products.

So the end result would be that our customers could decide how much current are they looking for, what kind of boards [ph] they're looking for and we would have a product offering for them. And instead of having to design an entire power management circuit, they'll now have to pick just the input and the output capacitor, pick this and they can just plug it in and go. We think that this is going to be a game changer for us and we believe in particular that this is – we'll have the whole suite of products by the end of next year. And as we go out in 2015, 2016, this is going to make a huge difference for us. I just wanted to be able to share that. Thank you for the segue.

Ross Seymore - Deutsche Bank

That's a good point. Last question in the 40 seconds we have left. You have over $5 per share in cash on the balance sheet. There's an [ph] awful lot of cash. I know in the past you did a one-time special dividend around the tax uncertainty about the tax rate on dividends. Talk a little bit about cash return policy that you guys have in place and what your plans are going forward?

Meera Rao

Sure. We have over $20 million in cash and we continue to generate cash. Our plan is to have a balanced capital allocation strategy. A small technology tuck-in would certainly be of interest. In the meantime while we're looking for one of these companies, we have just announced 100 million stock buyback program that we have started in August and we also are giving serious consideration to just kicking off a dividend, a regular quarterly dividend program. We haven't come to any decision as a company and don't have anything to share on that front other than we are thinking about it.

Ross Seymore - Deutsche Bank

Great. So I think we are officially out of time. So Meera, thank you very much.

Meera Rao

Thank you. Thank you all for coming for MPS presentation.

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