Antigenics Should Rise on the Promise of Cancer Immunotherapy Treatments

After last week's forty percent drop in price, Antigenics (AGEN) issued an early morning press release on Monday announcing promising results for the company's Phase II trial that will measure the effectiveness of Oncophage in treating patients with recurrent high grade glioma (brain cancer).

Data from the first twenty patients treated with Oncophage demonstrated a median survival of 10.1 months, well above the historic average of 6.5 months, and slightly better than Avastin's 9.2 months. However, Oncophage gets a leg up in terms of 'quality of life' (side effects), according to the press release - an important issue for patients, as we learned from the powerful patient lobby that came to the forefront during the Provenge trials.

I'll continue adding shares of AGEN with a long term outlook, although I'll get more excited about the glioma trials as the Phase II draws to an end and the outlook moves to a Phase III success.

As for the status of Oncophage in Europe - I'm not certain that we're at the end of that road. Let's see what the EMEA has to say in November and then look at the chances of Antigenics being able to provide a valid argument for appeal. Last week's verbal negative opinion definitely puts the time frame for a possible return in stock price off by a little while, but it doesn't kill the long term potential of the stock by any means.

Dendreon (DNDN) and the Provenge story showed us that cancer immunotherapy treatments are just as much a political issue as a medical one, especially when it's the small biotech companies developing products that can tear into the profits of big pharma; and had it not been for the patient lobby behind Provenge and the conflicts of interest that arose with two doctors on the FDA's Advisory Committee, I'm not so sure that Dendreon would be primed for the success that it looks like that company will realize with a Provenge approval next year.

However, I still believe that cancer immunotherapy treatments are the next big thing for cancer treatment, although I also don't believe that the full potential of the vaccines will be realized until they can be tested in patients who still have an immune system that is not already torn apart, beat down and weakened by late stages of cancer and chemotherapy treatments. Just my opinion, of course.

I'm adding AGEN on the dips; however, I'll somewhat temper my accumulation for the time being until I see if the stock drops to sub-$1, a possibility, in my opinion, if additional promising news is not released this week leading into the earnings report.

Disclosure: VFC is long AGEN.

Comments

[investwize999:]

With the socialist medical plan close to approval and a change forthcoming due to in part to this in the house and senate in 2010.

one drug that should be a three to four bagger is v v us

Dndn that i own from four dollar will be a massive company in three years.

I feel v v u s will be bought out by big pharm for 25 to 50 within a year

good investing

Oct 27 07:52 AM

[nougatine1:]

Dear VFC and investwize999...
"Nous y voilà..."..."Here we are..."
For AGEN...Yes...and as I said...Do not forget...solvants...and Earnings results...tomorrow of day after...
I fully agree with VFC...Since the beginning...
For VVUS...I agree also...Go to their site and see their Sept presentation....But since their first presentation...Go on CNBC also to see today article on VVUS...
Do not forget...CVM...NVAX......
And why AMGEN go so low...If buy other company is not on scope!!!!
Thanks VFC...

Oct 27 08:04 AM

[nougatine1:]

VVUS was defined as "speculative..." since september....Will see who will be right...

Oct 27 08:06 AM

[User 480231:]

Do you think there is a possibility for AGEN being bought out for its ability to earn millions of dollars for its QS21 and it drugs in the pipeline. I noticed that the insiders do not control enough stock to avoid a hostile takeover. Im not sure if they have a poison pill in place either.

Oct 27 08:29 AM

[User 480231:]

Do you think AGEN could be bought out for its possible huge returns on QS21 and it drugs in the pipline? Im not sure if the company has a poison pill in place or not. It seems that with all of this potential revenue stream it could be a candidate for a takeover. Your opinion please.

Oct 27 08:32 AM

[nougatine1:]

For Takeover...Yes...CRITICAL Tech on solvants...
For VVUS...It was Cramer...who thought as speculative....

Oct 27 08:43 AM

[User 476730:]

Agen failed Phase III kidney and skin cancer trials in USA as well as it was rejected in Europe.

I can't see why Oncophage would be approved for anything else. It looks more as if the company felt in love with the drug or is the only hope they have (to survive and for the management to keep avoiding looking for a new job).

QS-21 may not be as strong in revenue as they expect?

I'm invested in AGEN but unfortunately losing hope in the company.

Oct 27 11:21 AM

[Penn Bioinv...:]

VFC, apparently you don't know much about drug discovery. This kind of pump for AGEN is simply naive. Put this way, yes, some previous biotech stocks you pumped do went up well, but it is NOT because you really understand the science behind, but simply because at that time, market is strong for biotech sector as a whole. Enough is enough, please stop here.

Oct 27 07:23 PM