Is This the Weakest Recovery in Modern Memory?

As many of us have been saying for some time now, more stimulus would speed the recovery -- the jobs outlook is particularly worrisome -- but unfortunately, it doesn't appear that more stimulus is politically feasible:

The Case for More Stimulus, Editorial, NY Times: The consensus among economists is that the recession is over, and, technically, the herd is probably right. ... Immense federal stimulus has jolted the economy.

But... The economy is going to need more government support, or it is bound to be very weak for a very long time — and vulnerable to a relapse into recession. Unemployment is expected to worsen well into next year, exceeding 10 percent. Foreclosures are expected to rise, which will push home values down further. Hundreds of small and midsize banks are likely to fail in coming years. State and local governments face budget shortfalls in 2010 that are as bad or worse than this year’s.

Yet Washington is not providing a coherent plan for effective stimulus. The Senate has been hamstrung for nearly a month over the most basic relief-and-recovery boost: an extension of unemployment benefits. ... Lawmakers in both parties fret that large budget deficits preclude more stimulus, lest the burden of debt outweigh the benefit of deficit spending. ... Deficits are a serious issue, but the immediate need for stimulus trumps the longer-term need for deficit reduction. A self-reinforcing stretch of economic weakness would be far costlier than additional stimulus.

The Senate could take a step in the right direction by extending unemployment benefits without further delay. ... Next, Congress and the administration should agree on ways to ease the dire financial condition of the states. Most important is continued aid for state Medicaid programs... As long as the states are suffering, any economic recovery efforts by the federal government are undermined. ...

Without another round of effective stimulus, the worst recession in modern memory will likely become — at best — the weakest recovery in modern memory. Another boost to federal spending that is targeted and timely should not be too much for politicians to deliver.

Recall this recent graph from the San Francisco Fed (click to enlarge):

Output is not expected to return to potential until well into 2012.

Now recall the long delay between the end of the last two recessions and the peak in the unemployment rate (or just about any other labor market indicator) (click to enlarge):

And the recovery for the labor market could be even slower this time.

To be fully effective, plans for additional stimulus should have been in place long ago. However, given how long the recovery is expected to take, it's not too late to do more if we get started right away. But the political climate makes it highly unlikely that labor markets and the economy will get the help that they need.

Comments

[Roger Knights:]

"But the political climate makes it highly unlikely that labor markets and the economy will get the help that they need."

The political climate also includes, invisibly to outsiders, China's unwillingness to buy Treasuries at its current rate if US deficits aren't reined in. We're boxed in.

Oct 27 07:17 AM

[Donald Ingram:]

What recovery?
A broken global credit market.
Increasing federal debt.
Lack of transparency in mortgage backed securities.
Mountains of consumer and corporate debt.
High federal budget deficit.
Expanding bail outs.
Consumer economy destruction.
Monetization of the National Debt.
Chronic high unemployment.
An FDIC with depleted reserves of capital.
Double wave of mortgage resets.
House prices continue to fall.
Large shadow inventory of foreclosed houses.
Impending collapse of commercial real estate.
Huge crises lurking in over-the-counter derivatives.
Under-funded pensions.
Impending municipal bond and municipal bond hedge fund failures.
Increasing number of bank failures.
Insurance company failures.
Worsening state, county and city budget crises.
No confidence in the US dollar.
Ongoing asset deflation with currency inflation.
A decrepit falling apart infrastructure.

Now, if you still believe that a recovery is here - then good luck with that. Have another drink of kool-aid from the punch bowl.

Oct 27 08:15 AM

[TradingHelp...:]

Is This the Weakest Recovery in Modern Memory?

It's no recovery at all. Unemployment to hit 10%, flawed housing market, deep in debt as a country and a consumer.

There's a lot of market froth from the monetary easing stimulus package but I see very little real economic activity that is sustainable.

It's even worse here in the UK.

www.dukascopy.com/iben...

Oct 27 08:35 AM