John Eaves - President, Chief Executive Officer
David Gagliano - Barclays
Arch Coal, Inc. (ACI) Barclays CEO Energy Conference September 13, 2013 11:05 AM ET
David Gagliano - Barclays
Few things progressing here again back to coal, we had a three coal companies presenting yesterday and then today we have got Arch Coal, second largest coal producer in the U.S. present in each of the key regions in the U.S. and obviously a significant met coal and thermal coal presence.
With us today from Arch is John Eaves, the President and CEO and also Jennifer Beatty, the Director of Investor Relations. John, the floor is yours.
Thanks David (inaudible). Good morning. Certainly a pleasure to be here given the fact that it’s a Friday morning and end of the conference, I’m surprised to see this many people here. So thank you very much for your interest in Arch Coal. We are excited about the way we are positioned; look forward to spending some time talking about it.
What I would like to do today is spend a little time talking about how Arch Coal is positioned for the short-term, for the long-term. Talk a little bit about our strategic growth initiatives and then finish up with a little discussion on the market and why we think in improving market particularly long-term as set-up Arch very well, the way we got the company positioned.
I’m going to be making some forward-looking statements today. It may surprise some of you that I could actually make some statements that might differ from actual results given all the uncertainties in the world economies. But, I will just give you a moment to peruse that and then we will get started.
When you think about Arch, we are the most diversified supplier in the United States, we got over 5 billion tons spread out throughout the United States and all the major producing regions. We got low cost thermal in the Western U.S. with our PRB and our Western Bituminous region. We got a growing platform in Illinois with Viper and our joint venture along with a sizeable reserve there.
You can see in the PRB, clearly over 3 billion tons there with good high-quality coal that serves the U.S. and the international markets. And then we have a billion tons in Appalachia, which over 40% of that is met, PCI quality. So when you look at our diversity, you look at the way we have been able to manage our cost in all the regions that we participate in. You look at our transportation options, we ship coal on all four class one railroads. We have port infrastructure on the East Coast, New Orleans, Houston, West Coast, we ship coal to 40 different states in the U.S. and about 190 power plants. We think we are positioned very, very well to serve the U.S. and international markets over the next three to five years.
An area that we spend a lot of time on over the last year to year-and-a-half is our cost. It’s something that’s always very important to us. But, given the challenges that we have seen in the current marketplace, we put a laser focus on our cost reductions and you can see the success that we have had particularly in the PRB and Appalachia.
We have had a number of process improvements going on where we are looking at blasting techniques, diesel emissions, we have eliminated contractors, we shortened our shifts, eliminated over time all these things to better manage our cost and a lot of these process, initiatives are really sustainable as we see in improving markets.
So don’t think you are just going to see this improvement in cost during these difficult markets, we plan to maintain those once we start seeing price improvement here and abroad.
We have done the same thing on the capital side. If you look at our capital expenditures over the last couple of years, they are going to be about half this year, what they were in 2011. The focus is extending rebuilds, eliminating a lot of replacement, equipment -- taking ideal equipment from one mine that we shut down to another operating facility. All of these have helped us manage our capital pretty well.
You can see in 2013, we guided about $295 million worth of capital, most of that growth capital is Leer project, we will have that fully capitalized by the end of this year. As we go into 2014, the only capital that we have to spend obviously is our maintenance capital and some capital for land additions primarily in the PRB. So if the market were to continue to be difficult, we have the ability to ratchet our capital expenditures down as we move into 2014.
Keeping with our strategy, we talked about over the last year or two monetizing assets that we don’t think fit in our portfolio. We had that opportunity a couple of months ago, recently closed that transaction with the company called Bowie to sell our Utah mines. The $423 million, the transaction closed multiple years of cash forward. It eliminates our obligation spend over $200 million over the next four years of capital and then in 2018 to fully recapitalize one of the mines. So we think this made a lot of sense, the value we get, we are pleased with and certainly the liquidity was a nice bonus.
Another area that we focused on over the last year, so has been our liquidity, you can see that we are maintaining a pretty large position in cash. Our total liquidity currently is about $1.6 billion of which $1.3 billion of that is cash. We don’t have any debt maturities till 2016. We have some bonds coming due in 2016 that actually are callable now so we do have the flexibility there. We relaxed our covenants to late in 2015. Don’t anticipate any issues with those covenants this time.
So we do think we are well-positioned. We got plenty of liquidity to continue to navigate through what we think could be a challenging market shorter term and really position us very well for the longer term and an improving market price.
So the one thing in Arch, we are going to continue doing is focusing on the things that we can actually control. And we are going to focus on continuing to improve our cost structure in all the regions quarter-after-quarter. We are going to manage our capital. We are going to manage our sales book. We are going to look to maximize our asset value. We will finish out the development of Leer and then we will evaluate the market demand going forward, whether it’s on the met side or the thermal side.
Once we see a meaningful and sustainable improvement in the market, we will quickly delever our balance sheet. We are not happy with our debt levels currently. We would like to bring those down but we do need to see some improvement in the marketplace to do that. But it wouldn’t take a material improvement to have us start generating some pretty meaningful free cash flow and delever our balance sheet pretty rapidly.
Now I will spend a little time talking about our platform and some of the growth opportunities that we see. Certainly, we are proud of our position in the Western United States with PRB. We are one of the largest producers in this region and really the largest producer in the Southern PRB (of) high BTU coal. And we think that’s a real advantage in the market.
Now, we have worked hard on expanding our markets domestically as well as internationally. And we do have a fair bit of idle capacity right now in the PRB, its capacity that we do not plan to bring on until we see a material improvement in the marketplace but its capacity that can be brought on in fairly short order with very little with any capital. So we think we are well-positioned and it really provides the investor the upside, not only on the volume side but on the pricing side as well.
In the East, we worked hard with a number of tough decisions in 2012 where we closed down 10 coal mines, a lot of those were high cost thermal mines, some higher cost met mines. Unfortunately reduced a lot of stack but at the same time, we thought those tough decisions were necessary to really position the company going forward.
You can see where we stack up on our cost, first half of the year we had cash cost of $66 in East. We think given the fact that a lot of our production is central App, but this is pretty compelling. We hope to continue to improve on that. You can see in terms of our production volumes that over half of that is coming or targeted for the met market. We would expect as we build out the Leer project that more and more of our volume would go into the met market and less into the thermal market out of the Eastern United States. So we do think that we are well-positioned, we are excited about our met position in East and our ability to serve the markets here and abroad.
Talking about our met platform, you can see in 2011, where we stood in terms of the quality of products that we produced. About 20% of our portfolio in 2011 was Low Vol and High Vol A. By the time we get to Leer project up and running and get into the 2014, 2015 timeframe over 50% of our product mix will be high quality met coal.
And these coals will be not only high quality but they would be at a very competitive cost. You can see by the map depicted here in grey that beyond Leer, we have tremendous opportunities in this particular part of the country. We’ve got about 140 million tons of high quality met coal at a good cost structure that if we see the met coal demand continue to evolve over the next 5 to 10 years that we can bring on additional volume. Again, a very attractive cost, good transportation options to the coast and real good access to the international markets.
Beyond the met side, we’ve also worked hard in rationalizing our position on the thermal side. We think now, we have some good high quality low cost thermal products throughout the country. In Colorado, we have the West Elk mine, which is a high quality low cost mine as really served the U.S. and the international markets very well in 2012, although 40% of the volume from this mine went into the international market.
So, that’s a market that we’ll continue to look at to look for growth opportunities in that region. We’re also bringing some of this coal into the Midwest, blending that coal with Illinois for shipments down to the Gulf and into the international market. So this mine is a good cost mine, its got good transportation options whether we are railing it to Houston, railing it to St. Louis or shipping it up the West Coast to California.
In Illinois, we’ve got a small but growing platform. In this region, we’ve got our Viper operation located in the central part of Illinois, which is a low cost operation with a good customer base. We also have a joint venture with Knight Hawk where we have 49% equity with a small company that is doing about 4.5 million to 5 million tons primarily in the domestic utility and industrial market.
And then beyond that, we’ve got about 700 plus million tons of reserves, a mine called Lost Prairie that is fully permitted and ready to go and at appropriate time, we would bring that mine on with a large percentage of that production committed. But given some of the volumes that are coming out of Illinois right now, this is a reserve that we’re going to continue to sit on and watch the market and pick the right time to bring that volume to market, but very well could be a core operating region for Arch Coal over the coming years.
And then in the East, as I indicated earlier, we had shut down a number of operations over the last year. So, we think we’ve got ourselves very well-positioned in terms of cost and quality in the East. We’ve got a couple of low cost mines anchored by a mine called Coal-Mac in Southern West Virginia. Another thermal mine called Lone Mountain, which is not only in thermal market, but it’s in the met market and then we’ve got pretty low cost production coming out of Hazard. So we think we’re well-positioned to continue to serve the opportunities. We see domestically whether they are utility or industrial as well as the international markets.
Some of the challenges that we’re seeing in the U.S. in terms of demand, one of the things that we decided a couple of years ago that we had to reorient our company and focus more on the international markets. A lot of the independent consultants were forecasting pretty significant improvements in the seaborne traffic, you can see over the next five or six years, their forecasting doubling seaborne volume from a billion over two billion tons. Arch plans on being a part of that growth.
Three or four years ago, we were exporting less than two million tons of coal. Last year, we exported almost 14 million tons of coal and you can see over the next four or five years, we would expect to grow those volumes. So, we have been very proactive in terms of going out and getting infrastructure in place to allow us to access those markets, you can see how we are positioned on the East Coast with our ownership in DTA, our positions in the Gulf, with long-term agreements with Kinder Morgan and then the shipments that we’re doing currently off the West Coast. We are currently railing coal up to Ridley; we are working on getting our Millennium Bulk Terminal developed and think that having additional access off the West Coast given the demand growth that we see in Asia is going to be very, very important.
Now let’s spend a little time talking about the market short-term, long-term and how we are positioned to respond to what we think is going to be improving markets over time. No secret to anybody in this room, the challenges that we’ve had recently in the markets clearly the economies have slowed down globally. Thermal prices have been under pressure, met prices have been under pressure all of those that we come up with (peaks) in terms of steel capacity; they still have remained in the mid to high 70s. So I think that’s a bright spot and what has been a pretty difficult market environment. No doubt the demand levels in the seaborne volumes were down but we think as we look at the markets longer term, we are much more bullish. We think steel consumption is going to increase pretty significantly over the next 5 to 6 years.
We think the population is going to continue to grow around the world and it’s going to require additional infrastructure, electricity and that is going to grow coal demand in a significant way. When we see the plant built ups going on around the world, we think there is going to be a significant amount of supply required over the next three, four years.
But in saying that certainly there is a short-term over supply of coal in the marketplace. We think there needs to be some rationalization and we think that’s slowly but surely will occur over the coming quarters, it is not happening as quickly as we would like but certainly when you look at future projects some of the big guys continue to pull a lot of those projects off the table and we think that will have difference. As we see steel consumption and utility generation continue to grow around the world.
When you look at the seaborne met market people are often really surprised to see the meaningful role of the U.S. already placed. They are second only to Australia. You can see the export levels, Low Vol, Mid Vol is comparable of what we are seeing coming out of Canada and the U.S. has a very meaningful position in terms of High Vol.
When you think about the demand growth that we are forecasting, you think about the expansion that’s going on in this country in terms of infrastructure to increase the capacity factors, we think the U.S. is going to continue to be a major player in the seaborne met markets for many years to come.
On the thermal side, significant build out of coal-fired generation around the world but 280 gigawatts are being constructed between now and 2017. These are plants that are being built not being talked about or not being in plan, they are coming on; they are going to need over 800 million tons of additional supply over the next 48 months, creating significant opportunities we think for the U.S. suppliers.
Obviously a lot of this growth is coming out of Asia but you also got some growth in Latin America and Europe as well. So as a company we worked hard to position ourselves to build to respond or what we think is an improving demand outlook globally.
Only it’s a surprise to anybody to think that a lot of the focus continues to be on China and India and you have seen pretty rapid increases in imports in both of those countries. And we would expect that to continue maybe at lower rates but you are growing in on a much higher base. But it’s really beyond that we see significant growth in countries like Korea, Malaysia, Vietnam, Indonesia, Taiwan, all these areas are continuing to build their economies on coal-fired generation. So I think it creates a tremendous opportunity for the U.S. suppliers in the international market on the thermal side.
It’s not all about Asia, believe it or not, there is some opportunities in Europe. We have seen coal demand go up over the last couple of years in this country. High natural gas price is the fact that coal production is following out over there its causing more and more imports to come into Europe.
Currently, there is a short-term over supply of coal in Europe, we think that corrects itself over time and we think longer term, we see some real opportunities for U.S. thermal coals into the European markets.
I often get the question that if this demand really materializes, does the U.S. really have the capacity to participate in a meaningful way. And you can see that we exported about 113 million metric tons in 2012 out of the U.S. into the global markets more than doubling that over the last 4 or 5 years. We think with the expansion projects going on currently in the U.S., they will be capacity in place over the next four or five years, to double that volume.
And we are not forecasting that we go into 250 but we do think that about 250 million tons of capacity will be available for the U.S. over the next four or five years, so you are going to see the U.S. participate in a much bigger way in growth in more of a historical swing supplier into these markets to a more of a long-term strategic supplier into these markets and Arch wants to be part of that.
2012 is a year, I think a lot us would like to forget. We lost tremendous coal consumption to the tune of about 90 million tons. We also had a pretty significant drop of in supply but it wasn’t enough to really keep inventories from building.
We are starting to see a turnaround. We are seeing some positive trends in the marketplace. We think we could get 40 million, 50 million tons of coal consumption back in 2013. We aren’t going to see the level of exports that we saw in 2012 although we are forecasting exports to be plus 100 million tons this year and actually it held a better than we anticipated year-to-date.
Coal production through the first half of the year was off 20 million tons, we would think particularly in the east that coal production is going to be pretty well challenged and continue to go down where we finish the year with lower production levels we saw on 2012. And what’s all this mean, it means that we are continuing to eat into the inventories. When you look at the spring of 2012, we talked at about 205 million tons of inventory in this country.
We have taken 35 million tons out of that as of end of June. We think with normalized weather, the balance the of year natural gas prices where they are in the mid-3s, that you are going to continue to pull inventories down. And we think by the end of the year, you could be sub-150 million tons in the U.S.
So we think directionally, we are going the right way. We still think that the market improvement as ways to go but we are seeing some positive signs, particularly on the thermal side.
When you look at the economics of PRB coal and you compare to natural gas, we continue to think PRB is some of the most economic BTUs in the U.S. as well as the world. When you see, how we stack up the natural gas at 350 gas price, you can see that parity pricing with PRB puts in the mid to high teens. Obviously, we are not getting that kind of price in the marketplace today. But, what it tells you as we see inventories come down the balance of the year, natural gas price is staying where they are that you could see a meaningful opportunity to increase PRB prices as we move into 2014.
On the challenging side here in the United States, there is a number of regulatory initiatives that are going to put pressure on coal-fired generation in this country primarily (max) is driving the closure of coal units in the U.S. We are forecasting about 35% of the coal units will close between now and 2018 are about 55 gigawatts.
But when you look a little deeper and you look at the actual consumption of that 35% based on 2012 burn rate, its about 8% to 9% not insignificant but about 75 million tons of burn. When you think about it a lot of these closures are over plants, they are smaller, they are inefficient and many of these plants should be closed anyway.
When you think about going forward and you look at where these coal units have been running, the fleet ran last year at about 56% of its capacity. The surviving units that we are forecasting post-2018 ran at about 60% of their capacity. If you look at an improving economy in the U.S., we think this coal generation could be some of the most economical generation out there.
If you just go back to 2007 where capacity factors were in the low 70s that’s incrementally about 100 million to 150 million tons of additional demand we don’t see today. When you think about the surviving coal units and those being the largest, most efficient units that have been retrofitted, they actually can ran a capacity factors much higher than the low 70s. So we think this is a pretty conservative approach but clearly an opportunity for additional coal demand.
So when you look at the demand and some of the challenges that we have and then you match that up with the supply particularly in East, you can see by this graph the challenges that we have had over the last 14 or 15 years in the East. It’s been 185 million tons of thermal coal come-off.
And we think particularly in Central App, the thermal production is going to be under pressure and you’re going to see more volumes come off this year. So I think the balancing will happen much quicker than many people anticipate. But what we try to do at Arch is manage the business with things that we can control. And that’s making sure that we have a diversified supply base that we’re on the low-end of the cost curve. And all the regions that we participate in that we manage our capital that we have good transportation options that we have good port infrastructure to access the demand growth that we see around the globe. That we have plenty of liquidity in place to manage for the short-term difficult market that we’ve seen and to prepare the company when the market does turn to quickly delever our balance sheet.
So we’ve been through these cycles before, this is a third or fourth one I’ve been through over the last 10 or 12 years. Each one seems a little bit more painful than the one before but what I can tell you is Arch is well-positioned, want to get through this and through to come out the other side a better company. So we’re proud of where we are. We work hard every day to manage our business and we think at the end of the day, if we can manage low cost in the regions we participate in, we’ll be ahead of the game.
So, with that David, that concludes my formal comments. I think if you want to open it up for some questions or discussions that would be great.
David Gagliano – Barclays
Yes, we got time. We have about 10 minutes for questions. I'm going to -- I’ll kick it off while people think of some questions. It just occurred to me considering the - your optimistic comments regarding the outlook longer term. Would this be in your view how receptive would you be to perhaps using the timing of the cycle to combine with another producer, what are your thoughts?
I mean certainly those opportunities always exist. I would tell you right now as a company, we’re more focused on managing our business getting through this difficult market environment and making sure that we’re positioned on the other side. So when the market does materialize that we can capitalize on it. I think when you look at Arch’s position, we’re very proud of what we have, we’ve got diversified mines throughout the country with good cost structures, we got good exposures to the thermal markets, good exposure to the met markets. And I’m just not sure David, who right now would make sense and we’ve worked hard to get ourselves in this position. We made a sizeable acquisition a couple of years ago.
And the market fell away from us post transaction but we have managed through and I really believe the asset base that we got through that transaction will create tremendous value going forward. So I like where we are today not to say that there aren’t opportunities out there but it looks like to me that all the big coal companies are focused on managing their business, trying to manage their cost and really are looking more inwardly than they are outwardly.
David Gagliano – Barclays
A quick question to you.
You mentioned about your debt level, do you have a target for that and how would you achieve that?
Given that the market environment particularly for the industry, I think we are not in a V shape recovery.
Perhaps L shape and in fact maybe the horizon shape. How would you achieve the debt level?
Yes. Well, I will tell you the one reason that we’re maintaining such a high level of cash on our balance sheet right now is to get a little more clarity on the market. And until we do that we want to manage that liquidity pretty closely given the environment that we’re in right now with our interest expense and then you add on our capital. It would be difficult to meaningfully delever our balance sheet right now that little help from the market.
But, in saying that, it wouldn’t take a material improvement in the PRB, a material improvement on the met market for us to start generating pretty meaningful free cash flow and delever pretty rapidly. At the same, we see an improving market, we probably don’t lean to levels of cash that we have on our balance sheet. So improvement in market, the levels of cash would allow us to delever pretty quick. As we think about our balance sheet, we currently have about net debt-to-cap about 60%, we’d like to be somewhere in that mid 40s range if we could.
David Gagliano – Barclays
How do you view the supply situation in the PRB and if there is, that if the market recovers a bit as you hope that your competitors quickly ramp up production again?
It’s a great question. Certainly I can’t speak for my competitors but what I can tell you is what Arch Coal is going to do. And you’ve been pretty active in the market, I mean we’re active in during the second quarter for sales in 2014. And that was an effort to continue to try to optimize the operation, the best we can without giving away the upside. And I think we’ve done that. I mean we indicated that based on 2013 volumes, we’re about 75% committed for 2014. So we think we’re in pretty good shape.
What I will tell you is that we have idle capacity in the Powder River Basin that we do not plan to bring on and until we see a sustained improvement in the market. And if not for the next quarter or the quarter after that it needs to be a longer term improvement in the market. I do believe that Arch Coal may have more of that capacity than some of our competitors. I would tell you that you’re not only got the volume upside with Arch but you get the pricing upside as well. But we’re going to continue to be very patient that idle capacity is sitting there. It can be brought back on over a period of time with very little with any capital.
So we do think, we’re well-positioned out there better than most but we do want to see an improved market. And based on early indications right now of natural gas prices in the mid 3s inventories continuing to come down and we think when we get a look at the actual August numbers that you could see PRB inventories maybe go below 60 days. We think that would certainly get buyers interest and with normalized weather for the balance of the year, you could actually set up a pretty interesting 2014, but I think time will tell and we got a late start to the summer.
Unfortunately in the middle of the country, particularly in St. Louis, we had in June and July, 70, 75 degree days with no humidity and that’s something we never see. Luckily over the last couple of weeks, we’ve been at 95 to 100 degree range and we think there is probably a pretty good pole on the inventories going on right now. Yes, sir.
Can you elaborate on your export sales on a trialing basis, which basin and which product is that you are exporting? And also can you describe the export opportunity for your Powder River Basin product, whether you have adequate BTU content for sale in specific Asian markets and to which market do you think the better opportunity is, whether its South Korea or Japan and so on?
Yes. Sure, I mean we typically don't breakout our exports really by region. I mean as I indicated, we exported almost 14 million tons last year. We would expect to be in a 12 million ton level this year. We’ve got PRB coal going up to Ridley and Prince Rupert in Canada and to the Asian markets. I would tell you, we look at China, we look at Korea. Korea was one of our bigger destinations in 2012. We continue to develop that market not only on the thermal side but on the met side. About 40% of our Colorado coal, a lot of West Elk went into the international market last year primarily to Europe but some of that went to Asia as well.
We railed that coal to Long Beach in California. We railed that coal direct down to Houston and we also bring that coal into St. Louis, blended with Illinois as well as shipped it straight down to New Orleans. So we’ve got a lot of methods to get our coal in the international market.
We look to the European markets, the South American markets as well as the Asian market. I would tell you that a lot of our thermal coal goes into. On the met side, we look to the U.S. markets, Europe, South America and Asia kind of in that order and given the demand we see we would expect those levels to continue at a pretty good pace.
I mean, we said all along that there is going to be ups and downs in the international market and currently right now we’re one of the downs. So when you look long-term and you look at the demand growth and you look at opportunities, we think it’s a prudent thing to do to make sure the company is positioned to go and take advantage of that. We now have offices in Singapore, Beijing and London and it’s really to have people on the ground better responding for those opportunities we see over the next couple of years. Anything else?
David Gagliano - Barclays
We are going to ask one more. We got three minutes. You mentioned 75% in PRB at the end of the third quarter, where would you like to end the year by PRB (wise)?
You know, David, we don't have a magic number. Obviously during the second quarter this year, we saw a lot of activity. Therefore, we put to bed about 19 million or 20 million tons for 2014. I think it just depends on the activity but as we get through the fall season, inventories continue to come down. I think you could see quite a bit of buying activity going into 2014. I think the market will drive that.
And we do -- we probably in better shape than we’ve been in 5 or 10 years in terms of our commitments right now, going into the next year without really giving away any of the upside if the market materially moves.
David Gagliano - Barclays
Have contract prices change dramatically in the last few months or the four numbers, that we are seeing 11.50 reasonable for contract for 2014?
Yes, well, I think we talked about it during our earnings call. I mean, we still see 11ish short-term and $12 for 2014 type business plus or minus.
David Gagliano - Barclays
Great, thanks very much. We will have a breakout session right after this.
David Gagliano - Barclays
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